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瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250618
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 09:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 18, the closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 790.5, down 0.57%, and the Mongolian 5 raw coal was reported at 701 on the spot side. The supply on the raw material side shows signs of marginal improvement, and the coking coal mine capacity utilization rate has declined for 5 consecutive weeks. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 18, the closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1375.0, up 0.62%, and the third round of coke price cuts was implemented on the spot side. In May, China's crude steel output was 8655000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply on the raw material side shows signs of marginal improvement, and the molten iron output has declined from a high level. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1375.0 yuan/ton, up 9.50 yuan. The JM futures contract positions were 700071.00 lots, down 6625.00 lots; the J futures contract positions were 56080.00 lots, up 839.00 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 coking coal contracts were - 47200.00 lots, down 11166.00 lots; the net positions of the top 20 coke contracts were - 1525.00 lots, down 962.00 lots. The JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 25.00 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan; the J1 - 9 month contract spread was 28.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 90.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu was 701.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1445.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 110.00 US dollars/wet ton, down 6.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1230.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The JM main contract basis was 189.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; the J main contract basis was 70.00 yuan/ton, down 9.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 336.13 million tons, up 8.72 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 251.47 million tons, up 6.41 million tons. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 57.36%, down 3.23 percentage points; the raw coal output was 40328.00 million tons, up 1397.40 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3604.00 million tons, down 179.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 187.80, down 2.10. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 544.73 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 258.69 million tons, down 8.16 million tons [2]. - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 798.07 million tons, down 20.85 million tons; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in the full sample was 125.71 million tons, down 1.30 million tons. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 773.98 million tons, up 3.07 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.84 million tons, down 2.96 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full sample were 12.32 days, up 0.06 days; the available days of coke of 247 steel mills were 11.62 days, up 0.04 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 889.34 million tons, up 25.97 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 68.00 million tons, up 13.00 million tons. The output of coking coal was 3926.16 million tons, down 235.31 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.96%, down 1.40 percentage points [2]. - The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 46.00 yuan/ton, down 27.00 yuan/ton; the output of coke was 4238.00 million tons, up 78.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.39%, down 0.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.56%, down 0.07 percentage points. The crude steel output was 8655.00 million tons, up 53.10 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On June 17, Li Zhen, a member of the Party Committee and Deputy Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, stated at the second special promotion meeting of the 2025 Deepening and Upgrading Action of State - owned Enterprise Reform that state - owned assets and enterprises should pay attention to planning guidance, systematically connect with the national key industrial development strategy, and scientifically formulate the "15th Five - Year Plan" for state - owned assets and enterprises [2]. - After Israel's sudden attack on Iran, some shipowners began to actively avoid the Strait of Hormuz, and freight rates soared by 24% [2]. - The European Commission proposed a legislative proposal that the EU will gradually phase out the direct or indirect import of pipeline natural gas (PNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia by the end of 2027 and completely stop importing Russian oil [2].