Core Viewpoint - The evolving situation in the Middle East is expected to significantly impact the global energy supply and demand landscape, potentially raising the energy price baseline. The coal industry in China, as a key energy pillar, is likely to undergo a revaluation [1]. Group 1: Energy Price Trends - Since the escalation of the Middle East situation, global oil, gas, and chemical product prices have risen, indirectly pushing up overseas thermal coal prices. As of March 13, Newcastle thermal coal prices increased by 17% to $136/ton, while European ARA port thermal coal prices rose by 16% to $124/ton [1]. - Domestic coal prices may follow suit but are expected to rise less than overseas prices due to strong domestic energy supply capabilities and lower reliance on imported coal. Domestic coal prices have declined since the end of February, reflecting weaker demand expectations during the traditional off-season [1]. Group 2: Future Price Projections - In extreme scenarios, domestic thermal coal prices could exceed 1,000 yuan/ton. The CICC commodity team forecasts that by 2026, the oil price baseline could reach $76, $93, or $109 per barrel under moderate, risk, and extreme risk scenarios, respectively. The actual price performance will depend on domestic energy supply efforts at that time [2][5]. - Coal demand is expected to remain rigid, supporting the coal price baseline. Even if geopolitical risks ease, the coal price baseline is likely to have strong support due to the complex global geopolitical backdrop, leading countries to increase reserves of upstream resources to mitigate supply chain risks [2]. Group 3: Opportunities in the Coal Industry - The coal industry is anticipated to see improved profitability and heightened strategic significance, presenting revaluation opportunities. The midstream sector may benefit from domestic energy cost advantages and supply chain stability, enhancing export competitiveness [2]. - However, there is a caution regarding the rapid increase in some raw material prices, which could squeeze midstream profit margins [2]. Group 4: Regional Energy Supply Dependencies - Countries such as India, South Korea, and Taiwan have a relatively high dependence on LNG supplies from the Middle East. If the situation persists longer than expected, Japan's natural gas generation may decline, complicating power peak regulation and potentially increasing coal demand [7][9]. - Similarly, South Korea's natural gas generation is expected to decline, leading to challenges in power peak regulation and a corresponding rise in coal demand [12]. Taiwan's high dependence on Middle Eastern natural gas may also result in tighter electricity supply conditions [14].