Core Viewpoint - The evolving situation in the Middle East is expected to significantly impact the global energy supply and demand landscape, potentially raising the energy price baseline. The coal industry in China, as a key energy pillar, is likely to undergo a revaluation [1]. Group 1: Energy Price Trends - Since the escalation of the Middle East situation, global oil, gas, and chemical product prices have risen, indirectly pushing up overseas thermal coal prices. As of March 13, Newcastle thermal coal prices increased by 17% to $136/ton, while European ARA port thermal coal prices rose by 16% to $124/ton [1]. - Domestic coal prices may follow suit but are expected to rise less than overseas prices due to strong domestic energy supply capabilities and lower reliance on imported coal. Domestic coal prices have declined since the end of February, reflecting weaker demand expectations during the traditional off-season [1]. Group 2: Future Price Projections - In extreme scenarios, domestic thermal coal prices could exceed 1,000 yuan/ton. The CICC commodity team forecasts that by 2026, the oil price baseline could reach $76, $93, or $109 per barrel under moderate, risk, and extreme risk scenarios, respectively. The actual price performance will depend on domestic energy supply efforts at that time [2][5]. - Coal demand is expected to remain rigid, supporting the coal price baseline. Even if geopolitical risks ease, the coal price baseline is likely to have strong support due to the complex global geopolitical backdrop, leading countries to increase reserves of upstream resources to mitigate supply chain risks [2]. Group 3: Opportunities in the Coal Industry - The coal industry is anticipated to see improved profitability and heightened strategic significance, presenting revaluation opportunities. The midstream sector may benefit from domestic energy cost advantages and supply chain stability, enhancing export competitiveness [2]. - However, there is a caution regarding the rapid increase in some raw material prices, which could squeeze midstream profit margins [2]. Group 4: Regional Energy Supply Dependencies - Countries such as India, South Korea, and Taiwan have a relatively high dependence on LNG supplies from the Middle East. If the situation persists longer than expected, Japan's natural gas generation may decline, complicating power peak regulation and potentially increasing coal demand [7][9]. - Similarly, South Korea's natural gas generation is expected to decline, leading to challenges in power peak regulation and a corresponding rise in coal demand [12]. Taiwan's high dependence on Middle Eastern natural gas may also result in tighter electricity supply conditions [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict in the Middle East has escalated, disrupting the global energy supply. China, as the world's largest crude oil importer, may release some commercial crude oil reserves to help the petrochemical industry through the current difficulties. The price of chemicals is unlikely to fall significantly due to the increase in cost [2]. - Crude oil will lead the chemical industry to continue its strong and volatile pattern. The prices of various chemical products are affected by geopolitical factors, and the market outlook varies for different products [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The operation risk of energy facilities in the Middle East has increased, and the shortage pattern continues. The market is facing a large supply gap, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The main influencing factors include the Middle East geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production policy changes, and Sino-US tariff policy adjustments [7]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by geopolitical factors, the asphalt futures price fluctuates at a high level. The refinery's profit has deteriorated, and there is an expectation of a significant reduction in refinery operations. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Supported by geopolitical factors, it fluctuates at a high level. The high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes are pushing up the futures price. In the long term, the demand for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced, which is a long - term negative factor. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the Middle East geopolitical situation in the short term [8][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the high - level fluctuation of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The current valuation is moderately high, and it is expected to fluctuate following crude oil [11]. - **PX**: The supply is expected to be tight due to the contraction of the total supply and structural concessions. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the mid - term logic of buying on dips is maintained [13]. - **PTA**: Traders are actively selling, and the basis is rapidly weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the TA05 - 09 spread is expected to maintain a positive spread logic in the short term [14][15]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is mainly affected by the geopolitical situation and runs strongly in a volatile manner. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [15][17]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical factors bring positive effects to supply and demand, and it runs strongly in a volatile manner. The supply may be reduced, and there is an expectation of increased exports. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [18][19]. - **MEG**: The cost side is still supported, and the price is firm under the reduction of supply. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. - **Short Fibers**: The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with mostly rigid demand transactions. The price follows the upstream and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [21][22]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The intraday trading has become lighter, and the transaction price difference is large. The price follows the upstream raw materials, and the processing fee has a certain support below. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the continuous geopolitical conflict, it fluctuates within a range. The market tends to trade the geopolitical premium, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Urea**: The commercial reserves are concentrated and released, and the price is moderately weak. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand side has some changes. It is expected to fluctuate moderately and may be slightly weak [26]. - **PE**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and it should be treated with caution. Geopolitical factors support the raw material side, but the downstream demand is affected by price increases. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [30][31]. - **PP**: Geopolitical factors boost the support of the raw material side, and it fluctuates strongly. The raw materials such as crude oil and propane still support the price, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [31]. - **PL**: The refinery operation is decreasing, and the downstream is still under pressure. It fluctuates strongly. The operation is decreasing, but the powder profit is still under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [32]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and it is cautiously optimistic. The reduction of chlor - alkali enterprises supports the market, but attention should be paid to the alleviation of the shortage of upstream raw material supply. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is decreasing, and it is cautiously optimistic. The reduction of chlor - alkali enterprises supports the market, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [34][35]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 4.04, change: 0.01), Dubai (M1 - M2: 9.92, change: 0.72), etc. [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, such as asphalt (basis: - 310, change: 9, warehouse receipt: 93980 tons), etc. [38]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 242, change: - 72), etc. [39]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2581.98, with a decline of 0.38%; the commodity 20 index is 2916.20, with a decline of 0.36%; the industrial product index is 2557.35, with a decline of 0.31% [277]. - **Energy Index**: On March 18, 2026, the energy index was 1774.53, with a daily increase of 0.48%, a 5 - day increase of 2.97%, a 1 - month increase of 53.93%, and a year - to - date increase of 63.31% [279].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the oil ETF (561360) is leading with a rise of over 1.3% due to improved supply and demand dynamics supporting oil prices [1] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the delay in OPEC+ production increases and peak shale oil output are contributing to a slowdown in supply growth [1] - On the demand side, the recovery of tariffs and improvement in the global macroeconomic environment are stabilizing and enhancing oil demand [1] Group 2 - The expectation is that oil prices will maintain a relatively loose pattern with stronger bottom support [1] - In the coal market, prices are expected to experience long-term bottom fluctuations, with gradual alleviation of pressure in the mid and downstream sectors [1] - In the natural gas sector, the U.S. is likely to accelerate the construction of natural gas export facilities, which may lead to a decline in imported natural gas costs [1] Group 3 - The oil and petrochemical industry's supply and demand dynamics are improving, benefiting the refining sector from alleviated cost pressures and steady demand recovery [1] - The trade segment is expected to continue recovering as global economic activities improve [1] - In the refrigerant sector, long-term contract prices for Q1 2026 are continuing to rise, driven by increased demand for R134a due to the penetration of new energy vehicles [1]