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淮北矿业(600985):华东焦煤龙头,项目增长可期
Guoxin Securities· 2025-05-23 07:37
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (首次) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading producer of coking coal in East China, with significant operational improvements and a strong asset-liability structure [2][3] - The company possesses scarce coking coal resources, with a total coal resource of approximately 4.49 billion tons and a production capacity of 35.85 million tons per year [2][72] - The company has a competitive advantage in coal quality, washing technology, geographical location, and a strong customer strategy [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formerly known as 雷鸣科化, restructured in 2018 to focus on coal and coal chemical businesses, with the controlling shareholder being the Anhui Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [2][7] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market in China faces structural shortages of high-quality resources, with coking coal accounting for only about 19% of the total coal resources [2][65] - The company’s coal types include scarce varieties such as fat coal, coking coal, and lean coal, which make up over 80% of its total reserves [2][72] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 63.1 billion, 68 billion, and 70.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 3.26 billion, 4.51 billion, and 4.75 billion yuan respectively [2] - The company’s PE ratios are expected to be 10.2, 7.4, and 7.0 for the same period, indicating a reasonable valuation range of 13.4 to 15.1 yuan per share [2] Business Segments - The coal and coal chemical segments contribute over 85% of the company's gross profit, with coal products accounting for 26% of revenue and 69% of gross profit [17][25] - The company is expanding its coal chemical business, with projects like methanol and ethanol production expected to enhance revenue and profit [2][25] Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its debt structure significantly, reducing interest-bearing liabilities from 22.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 10 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a decrease in the asset-liability ratio from 62% to 46% [2][44]