Group 1 - The coal stocks have mostly risen, with Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188) up 6.28% to HKD 10.49, China Coal Energy (601898) up 6.08% to HKD 10.12, and China Shenhua Energy (601088) up 2.1% to HKD 38.96 [1][1][1] - According to Mysteel's research, coal mines in Inner Mongolia are exceeding production capacity, with a total capacity of 34.6 million tons per year for mines exceeding 10% of their announced capacity from January to June 2025 [1][1][1] - As of September 16, five coal mines with a total capacity of 19.3 million tons per year have been ordered to suspend operations for 5-7 days due to safety hazards, with four mines having completed rectifications and resumed normal production [1][1][1] Group 2 - Shanxi Securities believes that domestic raw coal production is expected to shrink due to policy shifts, with a reduction trend expected to continue in September and October despite a slight easing in August [1][1][1] - The contraction in domestic supply is leading to an unexpected rise in coal prices, which is driving up coal import demand, with August imports continuing to increase month-on-month [1][1][1] - If coal prices stabilize and rebound, it may further stimulate the demand for imported coal [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal production in China shows a cumulative output of 198.537 million tons from January to May, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.0%, indicating a slight decline in growth momentum compared to previous months [1] Group 1: Production and Capacity - The coal production growth rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared to the growth rate from January to April [1] - In June, there are signs of further production contraction due to safety production month, strict environmental inspections in major production areas, and sales pressure [1] - As of mid-June, the capacity utilization rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 80.7%, which is lower than the average level in May and down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite stable market prices, sellers are facing significant challenges in actual shipments, compounded by the impact of shipping losses, leading to a continued suppression of spot coal volumes [1] - The coal inventory at major ports in the Bohai Rim region is currently at 28.68 million tons, which has decreased by 4.48 million tons from previous highs, representing a decline of 13.5% [1]