煤炭 煤炭进口数据拆解 领先大市-A(维持) 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证煤炭】2025 年三季度煤炭债复盘- 平均期限继续创新高，平煤神马重组利 好存量债项 2025.10.22 【山证煤炭】煤炭月度供需数据点评-9 月：煤价平稳，看好板块四季度投资机 会 2025.10.21 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 25 年 9 月国内煤价上涨带动进口量提升 2025 年 10 月 23 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 投资要点： 首选股票 评级 进口煤量收缩趋势继续放缓，进口价下降。进口量方面，1-9 月累计增 速实现-11.1%，累计进口煤量仍然呈现收缩趋势；尽管进口煤当月同比连续 7 个月保持负增速，但同比负增速持续边际放缓、环比增速较快，其中 9 月 进口煤同比降 3.34%、环比增 7.63%。分煤种来看，仅无烟煤环比负增长， 同比方面仅炼焦煤正增长。动力煤环比增量主要来印尼；炼焦煤环比增量主 要来自俄罗斯和澳大利亚；褐煤环比增量主要来自印度尼西亚；无烟煤环比 减量主要来自俄罗斯。价格方面，9 月当月全煤种进口价格实现 68 ...

①三季报显示拐点已现，分析师强call公司AI+教育进展显著，且商用机器人开始量产，明年业绩增速有望 较今年成倍数增长； ②是反转而不是反弹，分析师认为超产查处是本轮煤价上涨的底层逻辑，但后续安监 力度或将不断加大，看好年底或以最高点收官。 财联社倾力打造王牌栏目《风口研报》，替您"扒一扒"市场含金量超高的研报、调研信息。以机构视 角，追踪研报和调研纪要细节里的"超预期"、"拐点"、"事件催化"和"价值洼地"。 前言 ...

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a dual improvement in supply and demand, leading to higher-than-expected coal prices, with supply-side policies reducing overproduction and increasing safety inspections [1][2] - The La Niña phenomenon is expected to drive winter storage demand due to cold weather predictions, while unusual high temperatures in southeastern coastal areas have led to record-high daily coal consumption [1] - The market is shifting towards defensive dividend attributes and coal's low baseline fundamentals, enhancing its attractiveness [1] Supply Side - The coal supply contraction is leading the entire industry, with national coal production in July and August at 380 million and 390 million tons, significantly lower than the average monthly production of approximately 400 million tons over the past 18 months [2] - In August, the industrial raw coal production was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, with a slight month-on-month increase of 10 million tons [2] - The total annual coal production is expected to be around 4.75 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30 to 50 million tons [2] Demand Side - The total electricity consumption in August grew by 4.6%, a significant increase from the 2.5% growth in Q1, with expectations for the annual growth rate to exceed 5% [2] - Despite entering the typical demand off-season in September and October, demand has exceeded expectations, maintaining high levels in the East China region post the October holiday [2] Coal Prices - As of October 17, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port was 750 RMB/ton, an increase of 34 RMB/ton (4.7%) from the previous week [3] - Domestic supply remains stable while imports are expected to continue declining, with Q3 profits anticipated to rebound due to improved demand [2][3] Coking Coal - As of October 17, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1690 RMB/ton, up 30 RMB/ton (1.8%) [3] - The average daily iron and steel production has slightly decreased, but demand is expected to remain strong [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in core dividend stocks such as China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [3] - Continued recommendations include Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) and Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001.SH) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, highlighting strong price recovery and supply constraints as key factors for investment opportunities [3][4][15]. Core Views - Coal prices have accelerated unexpectedly, with supply constraints continuing to support price increases. The report anticipates that coal prices may exceed 900 RMB/ton by the end of the year due to seasonal demand and supply-side restrictions [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high spot price elasticity stocks, recommending specific companies based on their performance and growth potential in the current market environment [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of October 12, coal production from 442 mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia was 26.77 million tons, down 4.1% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month, indicating a consistent decline in supply [1][9]. - The report notes that since July 2025, the monthly coal production has seen a year-on-year decline of over 3%, with further reductions expected due to safety inspections and production checks [1][9]. Price Trends - The report highlights that coal prices rebounded sharply post-National Day, contrary to expectations of a seasonal decline, primarily driven by supply-side constraints [2][10]. - The report forecasts that non-electric demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, will increase, providing additional support for coal prices [2][10]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. High spot price elasticity stocks: Lu'an Environmental Energy [3][15]. 2. Stable growth stocks: Jinko Coal Industry, Huayang Co., Ltd. [3][15]. 3. Stocks with recovery potential: Shanxi Coal International [3][15]. 4. Industry leaders: China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry [3][15]. 5. Beneficiaries of nuclear power growth: CGN Mining [3][15]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the coming years [4][15]. - The coal sector has shown resilience, with the CITIC coal sector index rising 4.3% in the week ending October 17, outperforming the broader market indices [16][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2][39]. Core Insights - The long-term trend for coal prices is expected to be upward with fluctuations, driven by factors such as rising labor costs, increased safety and environmental investments, and higher prices for raw materials and fuels [6][39]. - The average pre-tax profit margin for the coal mining industry from 1999 to 2025 is 10%, with a fluctuation range of -3% to 25%, indicating reasonable returns [36]. Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Over the past 30 years, the price of North Port 5500 kcal thermal coal has shown an upward trend with increasing volatility, with price ranges shifting from 200-400 CNY/ton (1995-2005) to 400-1200 CNY/ton (2015-2025) [10][7]. Cost Structure Analysis - The coal industry's selling price is composed of total costs and pre-tax net profit. Total costs include sales costs, taxes (mainly resource tax), and period expenses [14][11]. - The average unit operating cost for major coal companies increased from 181 CNY/ton in 2016-2020 to 255 CNY/ton in 2024, reflecting an increase of nearly 80 CNY/ton [15][39]. Tax and Fee Changes - Resource tax rates have been raised in major coal-producing regions, with rates reaching the maximum of 10% in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, which could increase costs by 10-20 CNY/ton if rates rise by 2-3 percentage points [32][39]. Company-Specific Cost Increases - For China Shenhua, the unit sales cost increased by 56 CNY/ton in 2024 compared to the 2016-2020 average, primarily due to rising labor costs and other expenses [20][18]. - Zhengzhou Coal Electricity's unit cost rose by 129 CNY/ton, significantly impacted by labor costs and maintenance expenses, with production volume decreasing by 35% compared to 2016 [31][29]. Profitability and Market Outlook - The report indicates that the coal price will continue to have upward pressure due to persistent cost increases and government taxation policies, despite potential market fluctuations [39][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook compared to comparable companies in the coal industry [6]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight increase in raw coal production in September 2025, with expectations of benefiting from rising coal prices in the fourth quarter, leading to both volume and price growth [1]. - The report highlights a downward adjustment in coal price assumptions for 2025 from 703 RMB/ton to 544 RMB/ton, impacting revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [6]. - Despite the challenges, the coal industry is expected to maintain a high level of profitability due to historical underinvestment and tight supply conditions [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 31.194 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.650 billion RMB for 2025, with an expected growth of 8.2% in 2026 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.89 RMB in 2025, increasing to 1.01 RMB by 2027 [2]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 36.0% in 2025 to 38.5% in 2027 [2]. Market Data - As of October 16, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock was 15.93 RMB, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.0 and a dividend yield of 2.57% [3]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 47.653 billion RMB [3]. Operational Data - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a raw coal production of 42.55 million tons, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year [6]. - The company reported a coal sales volume of 37.65 million tons, down 1.10% year-on-year, with a notable decline in Q3 sales [6].

——2025 年 9 月主要运营数据点评：原煤产量小幅增长， 四季度有望受益于煤价上涨，实现量价齐增 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 2025 年 10 月 17 日 潞安环能 (601699) 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 35,850 | 14,069 | 31,194 | 32,246 | 33,191 | | 同比增长率（%） | -16.9 | -20.3 | -13.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,450 | 1,348 | 2,650 | 2,871 | 3,028 | | 同比增长率（%） | -69.1 | -39.4 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.82 | 0.45 | 0.89 | 0.96 | 1.01 | | 毛利率（%） | 36.9 | 36.0 | 37.6 | 38.1 | 38.5 | ...

假期归来，煤炭市场交投逐渐恢复，主产地由于前期部分煤矿价格涨幅较大，假期期间价格多有回落， 使得节后归来市场情绪偏谨慎；加上近日港口大风天气频繁，各港口均出现长时间的封航，也制约了市 场交投恢复速度。不过，港口优质现货资源相对偏少，叠加降雨天气扰动和大秦线检修影响，仍支撑卖 方挺价心态，报价企稳并略有小涨。 下周市场来看： 作者 |徐星河 编辑 |徐赫阳 责任编辑：李铁民 整体来看，节后煤炭市场活跃度逐渐回升，在严格限制煤矿超能力生产，大秦线秋季检修，以及发运利 润持续倒挂等因素的影响下，短期港口调入量仍难有明显提升，供给端仍将为煤价提供较强支撑。后续 继续关注港口调度及下游采购恢复情况。 来源 |CCTD中国煤炭市场网（转载请注明） 一方面，供给端利多因素聚集。主产地"查超产"、安全检查工作持续推进，煤矿生产受到产能严格限 制，叠加节假日因素影响，近期部分煤矿供给出现小幅下降；同时，大秦线启动秋季检修，日运量降至 100万吨水平，后期港口调入量也难有提升空间。供给端利多因素累积，将继续支撑煤炭价格。 另一方面，南方仍有明显高温天气。近日国内天气呈现罕见"南热北冷"的态势。在降雨和冷空气的共同 影响下，北方多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The national cement prices in China have slightly increased this week due to the traditional peak season and the proactive pricing strategies of cement companies [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - Market demand has shown some recovery this week, although it remains weaker compared to the same period last year [1] - Some clinker production lines are still in a state of suspension, which has not yet put pressure on the clinker inventory of companies [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The demand is expected to continue growing during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, but the increase is anticipated to be limited due to weak terminal market conditions [1] - Companies are likely to continue pushing up cement prices, considering the upcoming extended period of staggered production suspensions in winter and the current marginal improvement in demand [1] - There is an expectation of rising coal prices, which will further support cement prices [1]

Group 1 - The coal stocks have mostly risen, with Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) up 6.28% to HKD 10.49, China Coal Energy (01898) up 6.08% to HKD 10.12, and China Shenhua Energy (01088) up 2.1% to HKD 38.96 [1][1][1] - According to Mysteel's research, coal mines in Inner Mongolia are exceeding production capacity, with a total capacity of 34.6 million tons per year for mines exceeding 10% of their announced capacity from January to June 2025 [1][1][1] - As of September 16, five coal mines with a total capacity of 19.3 million tons per year have been ordered to suspend operations for 5-7 days due to safety hazards, with four mines having completed rectification and resumed normal production [1][1][1] Group 2 - Shanxi Securities believes that domestic raw coal production is expected to shrink due to policy shifts, with a reduction trend expected to continue in September and October despite some easing in August [1][1][1] - The contraction in domestic supply is leading to an unexpected rise in coal prices, which is driving up coal import demand, with August imports continuing to increase month-on-month [1][1][1] - If coal prices stabilize and rebound, it may further stimulate demand for imported coal [1][1][1]