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山煤国际(600546):产销比修复,未来业绩仍有改善空间
Shanxi Securities· 2025-11-05 01:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add-A" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [3][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in the third quarter shows signs of recovery in coal production and sales, with expectations for continued improvement in the fourth quarter due to rising coal prices and the resolution of long-term contract imbalances [5][6]. - The company has committed to distributing at least 60% of its distributable profits as dividends from 2024 to 2026, suggesting potential for dividend value as performance stabilizes [5]. - The company is actively pursuing resource expansion strategies to ensure a stable coal supply, including participating in bidding for coal production capacity [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 15.332 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.20% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.046 billion yuan, down 49.74% year-on-year [4]. - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 5.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.27%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.98% [4]. Production and Sales - The company produced 8.8202 million tons of raw coal in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 3.31%, while total sales of commercial coal were 12.1529 million tons, down 1.03% year-on-year [5]. - The coal production and sales ratio improved significantly from 1.47 in the second quarter to 0.93 in the third quarter, indicating a recovery trend [5]. Future Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.512 billion yuan, 1.695 billion yuan, and 1.962 billion yuan, respectively, with dynamic PE ratios of 14.8, 13.2, and 11.4 times [6][8]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in performance, supported by improving market conditions and dividend commitments [6].