Core Viewpoint - There is a significant inflow of funds into the coal sector, with the coal ETF (515220) seeing over 1.3 billion yuan in net inflows for five consecutive days, and a year-to-date growth of over 360%, currently exceeding 14 billion yuan in scale [1] Supply Side - The government has emphasized the need to address "involution" in the coal industry, with policies aimed at reducing excessive competition being implemented [1] - Since July 2025, the monthly year-on-year decline in national raw coal production has exceeded 3% [1] - In November 2025, 22 central safety production assessment teams will conduct inspections across 31 provinces, which may lead to rectifications in issues such as overproduction in the coal industry, further strengthening expectations of supply-side contraction [1] Demand Side - Northern regions have started heating earlier than usual, and by mid-November, the entire northern area will enter the heating season, marking the beginning of the demand peak [1] - The anticipated demand during the winter peak is expected to reverse the current oversupply situation in the coal market [1] Investment Sentiment - With expectations of rising coal prices and improving industry performance, some funds are strategically investing in the coal sector [2] - The coal sector offers high dividend yields, with the CSI Coal Index showing a dividend yield of 4.99% as of October 15, making it attractive amid rising market risk aversion [2] Market Outlook - Both fundamental and financial factors are expected to resonate positively for the coal sector [3] - Minsheng Securities predicts that coal prices may return to above 900 yuan per ton by the end of the year [3] - The coal sector has seen significant declines this year, with institutional holdings remaining low, indicating a healthy chip structure and less crowded trading [3] - The demand from non-electric coal during the peak winter season is expected to catalyze further price increases [3]