智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部的黄金储备价值已超过 1 万亿美元——是美国政府资产负债表上所列金 额的 90 多倍——与此同时，这种贵金属的价格也创下了历史新高。随着金价在周一突破每盎司 3824.50 美元的关口，全球最大的黄金储备量达到了这一重要里程碑。今年金价已上涨了 45%。然而，根据 1973 年美国国会设定的每盎司 42.22 美元的价格标准，其官方价值仅约为 110 亿美元。 今年，黄金价格屡创新高，因为投资者在面对贸易战、地缘政治紧张局势以及对美国可能出现政府资金 危机的担忧等因素引发的市场动荡时，纷纷寻求避险。此次上涨还受到了ETF资金流入以及美联储重启 降息举措的推动。 今年早些时候，美国财政部长贝森特的一句不经意的言论引发了人们的猜测，即政府的黄金储备将按市 价计价，这将带来数千亿美元的巨额收益。但贝森特后来对此予以否认，并且据报道，这一想法并未得 到认真考虑。根据美国财政部的数据，美国的黄金储备总量约为 2.615 亿盎司。 与大多数国家不同，美国的黄金是由政府直接持有，而非由中央银行持有。美联储则持有与美国财政部 所持黄金价值相对应的黄金凭证，并以美元的形式向政府进行补偿。这意味着， ...

更令人震惊的是白宫政府与美联储的史无前例冲突。美联储100多年来首次出现总统将理事解职的先 例，该机构独立性受到严重挑战，引发市场对金融体系稳定性的担忧，加之美国非农就业数据出现恶 化，成为了金价强劲上涨的又一催化剂。 与此同时，中东冲突急剧恶化，市场避险情绪爆炸性增长，投资者纷纷涌入黄金寻求庇护，加之，美元 走势和债券市场波动也为金价提供额外上行动力。 黄金市场刚刚上演一场史诗级行情，金价犹如火箭般蹿升冲破3508美元，创下历史全新纪录，全球投资 者为之震惊。这场暴涨始于9月1日开盘的一波极速拉升——短短2小时内金价直接狂飙近50美元。历经 一天时间，金价打破历史纪录后又迅速回调20美金，市场交投情绪依旧维持火热。 历史性行情背后，多重因素集中爆发 美联储降息预期已成定局，据CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率高达 87.4%。降息预期大幅降低了持有黄金的机会成本，成为推高金价的第一把火。 全球央行购金需求为金价提供了坚实支撑。2025年全球央行购金量虽有所放缓，但仍比2010年至2021年 的季度平均水平远远高出一截。随着全球央行降息潮来临、地缘局势持续紧张，黄金的牛市行情远未结 ...

Market Performance - Asian stock markets are underperforming, but the decline is somewhat mitigated by the performance of European and American markets [2] - Major indices such as the CAC, DAX, and S&P 500 have shown declines, with the DAX down by 2.00% and the S&P 500 down by 1.17% [3] Economic Indicators - The UK’s long-term borrowing costs have reached their highest level since 1998, driven by concerns over the economic outlook [3] - The yield on the UK 30-year government bond has surged to 5.68%, impacting the GBP/USD exchange rate [4] Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have reached a record high of $3,514.17 per ounce, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid market volatility [4] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that multiple factors, including a potential Fed rate cut and ETF inflows, are expected to support gold and silver prices, with a year-end target for gold set at $3,800 per ounce [10]

来源：华尔街情报圈 中国股市周五收盘艰难守住涨幅，但其他市场没有这么幸运——美股跌、美元跌、比特币暴跌，唯有黄 金上涨。 想看我们对全球市场更深刻的见解，可订阅《环球市场策略：9月展望，夏末惊天》，灵魂三问扑面而 来：A股"9·3"行情之后怎么走？美股大跌风险大吗？黄金还能涨到4000吗？答案尽在这份被誉为"神 作"的报告里。 报告亮点： 1、开篇是关于中国股市一个"大大的预言"，这是继《神准预言（续篇）》之后的又一震撼突破。 - 独家解读：A股会重复去年的故事吗？"9·3"行情之后怎么走？市场的秘密，不会写在K线里，而藏在 这份能看透周期的报告里。 - 独家发布《中国股市作战手册》，未来你要适应A股的新规律，何时加仓、何时减仓、何时观望—— 全周期投资策略手册。 - 解读高盛报告里的秘密：A股还能涨多久？看好哪些股票？发生什么涨势会戛然而止？ 2、独家解密："神秘人士"正把人民币纳入控盘体系——大涨号角已然吹响？报告独家附带：未来2个 月、半年、1-3年的人民币走势预测。 第一，原因未明。不知道哪条消息触发了市场的走势，在"未明"的情况下，下意识选择下跌，市场看起 来相当疲倦。 第二，昨晚公布的美国7月的P ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial storm triggered by the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes reflects a complex interplay of political and economic factors, impacting global investor sentiment and market stability [1][15]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Meeting Minutes - The meeting minutes released ambiguous signals, acknowledging signs of weakness in the job market while emphasizing inflation risks, leading to a sharp decline in market expectations for a rate cut [3][9]. - The stock market, particularly technology giants, experienced significant losses, with market capitalization evaporating by tens of billions overnight [3]. Group 2: Political Interference - President Trump's public criticism targeted Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, accusing her of past mortgage mismanagement, which is seen as an attempt to pressure her resignation and weaken the cautious stance on rate cuts [4][5]. - This intervention challenges the independence of the Federal Reserve, indicating a desire to exert political control over monetary policy [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The uncertainty created by the conflict between the President and the Federal Reserve led to a decline in the dollar, while gold prices surged as investors sought safe-haven assets [6]. - Some investors anticipated the turmoil and began positioning themselves for potential rate cuts while also implementing risk management strategies [11]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Trump's strategy to influence the Federal Reserve's personnel aims to align monetary policy with his political and economic interests, but the independence of the Federal Reserve is deeply rooted and not easily undermined [9][13]. - The current economic landscape, characterized by high inflation and a weak job market, complicates the feasibility of rate cuts [9].

Group 1 - The short-term market faces significant uncertainty due to unclear tariff and monetary policies, while the medium-term outlook suggests a continued weakening of the US economy and a clear direction towards interest rate cuts [1] - Recent high short-term price increases may be digested, with renewed recession concerns arising from tariff policy normalization and weaker-than-expected non-farm data, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts and increased market risk aversion [1] - The long-term outlook remains bullish for gold, supported by multiple factors including geopolitical conflicts, a weakening dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, and ongoing gold purchases by non-US central banks [1] Group 2 - The Gold ETF (518800) tracks the spot price of gold (Au99.99 contract) and is designed to reflect real-time price changes of high-purity gold, providing a convenient tool for investors to hedge against inflation risks [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Gold ETF Link A (000218) and Guotai Gold ETF Link C (004253) as alternative investment options [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has entered a new adjustment phase since June 13, with the banking sector showing resilience while new consumption stocks face significant declines [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share banking sector has risen nearly 4% over six days, ranking first among all industries, and has been on an upward trend for two and a half years, nearing the peak of the 2007 bull market [1]. - The overall market turnover has decreased significantly, with recent trading days seeing around 1.1 trillion yuan, down from 1.5 trillion yuan [1]. New Consumption Sector - The new consumption sector has experienced a sharp decline since June 5, with leading companies like Zhongchong Co. and Chaohongji seeing drops exceeding 20% [2]. - The market's previous optimism around new consumption stocks has been undermined by a lack of fundamental support and high valuations, leading to a prolonged adjustment phase [6]. Economic Indicators - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that retail sales in May grew by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, with the "trade-in" category growing by 34% [3]. - The strong retail sales data suggests that the need for stimulus measures may diminish, impacting the outlook for new consumption stocks [3]. Liquidity Conditions - There are signs of tightening liquidity in Hong Kong, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervening to manage currency fluctuations, which could affect the performance of Hong Kong stocks [5]. - The previous liquidity support that fueled the rise of new consumption stocks is reversing, contributing to the sector's decline [5]. Investment Shifts - Investors initially expected to shift from new consumption stocks to technology stocks, but this has not materialized due to overall market conditions and low trading volumes [7]. - The banking sector is expected to remain a safe haven for investors, with significant interest from institutional players [16]. Sector Analysis - The A-share market's dividend sectors are categorized into four main areas: resource, financial, natural monopoly, and broad consumption [8]. - The oil sector has seen a recent surge, with Brent crude oil prices rising nearly 20% since June 11, but concerns about geopolitical tensions may lead to volatility [9][10]. - The coal sector has underperformed, with a 12% decline this year due to falling prices and weak demand from the real estate sector [14]. Strategic Outlook - Given the current market conditions, a conservative approach is recommended, with a focus on reducing positions and waiting for better opportunities [19]. - The banking sector is highlighted as a potential area for investment, despite its declining fundamentals, due to the support from state-owned entities [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly in light of increasing gold reserves and heightened market risk aversion due to global conflicts and inflation data [1][2] - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index accounted for 51.92% of the total index, indicating a concentration of investment in key players such as Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth [2] - The China Central Bank has increased its gold reserves to 7.383 million ounces as of the end of May, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation, which reflects a strategic move amidst global economic uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous ETF fund closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index, which includes 50 securities that are prominent in terms of scale and liquidity, providing a benchmark for the overall performance of listed companies in the sector [1] - The article suggests focusing on investment opportunities in strategic minor metals such as gallium, germanium, tungsten, and antimony, as their price trends are showing divergence [1]

Group 1 - The core event is the Shanghai Wealth Weekly Expo scheduled for June 7, 2025, in Macau, aimed at providing investors with insights into market trends and investment strategies [1][7] - The expo has a history of 18 successful editions, attracting top experts and practitioners in the financial industry to share cutting-edge financial information [1][5] - Notable speaker Li Sheng Lun Jin will discuss gold investment strategies for the second half of 2025, leveraging his extensive experience and market predictions [1][5] Group 2 - The gold market is a focal point for investors in the second half of 2025, influenced by global economic uncertainties, U.S.-China trade relations, and geopolitical risks [2][5] - The demand for gold is expected to rise as it is viewed as a stable asset during market volatility, particularly in the context of ongoing trade tensions [2][5] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will significantly impact gold prices, with expectations of potential easing measures that could drive prices up [2][5] Group 3 - Li Sheng Lun Jin's analysis will cover macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical situations, and Federal Reserve policies, providing actionable investment advice for both conservative and speculative investors [5][7] - The expo will also feature discussions on wealth management, capital markets, and forex investments, offering a comprehensive knowledge-sharing platform for attendees [5][7] - The event is positioned as an essential opportunity for investors to learn, network, and gain insights into the financial landscape for the latter half of 2025 [7]

Market Overview - US stock market opened with declines, with Dow Jones down 0.75%, S&P 500 down 0.97%, and Nasdaq down 0.74% [1] - By 11:10 PM, Dow Jones narrowed its decline to 0.35%, S&P 500 down 0.37%, and Nasdaq down 0.54% [1] Technology Sector Performance - Among the seven major US tech companies, only Apple saw a slight increase of 0.08%, while others experienced declines [3] - Tesla and Nvidia both dropped over 2%, while Facebook and Google fell more than 1.5% [3] - Microsoft and Amazon decreased by 0.56% and 0.91% respectively [3] Chinese Stocks Performance - Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.22% [4] - ZTO Express rose over 2%, while Alibaba, Tencent Music, and Baidu Group all increased by over 1% [4][5] Gold Market Insights - Key factors supporting gold prices include ongoing geopolitical tensions, central banks increasing gold holdings, and excess global liquidity [7] - Technical analysis suggests a potential price rally if gold finds support at the 20-day moving average [7]