[Table_Title] 当前时点如何看中国宏桥？ 报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨中国宏桥（1378.HK） [Table_Summary] 从弹性到韧性，从周期到红利，电解铝板块有望迎来盈利和估值双击共振：中国宏桥作为优质 一体化龙头，亦将继续引领盈利和估值修复浪潮。考虑铝价上行对冲氧化铝回落，若按照今年 上半年归母净利润简单年化 247.2 亿元，参考去年分红率 62.03%，对应股息率为 7.09%，叠 加大比例回购（上半年 26 亿港元&规划 30+亿港元），彰显长期红利价值。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 易轰 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490520080012 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 中国宏桥（1378.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 当前时点如何看中国宏桥？ [Table_Summary2] 事件评论 从 2020 年 3 月低点以来，中国宏桥累计涨幅高达 1316.85%（截至 202 ...

为确保承诺落地，规划特别指出，若当年可供分配利润不足以覆盖上述分红标准，公司将直接从合并口 径累计未分配利润中补足。财务数据显示，截至2025年6月末，国电电力累计未分配利润达540.18亿 元，叠加687亿元货币资金及金融资产储备，为高分红承诺提供了坚实的财务"安全垫"。 从短期分红动作看，公司上半年拟合计派息17.84亿元，占同期归母净利润的48.38%（该预案尚需2025 年第二次临时股东大会审议）。这一比例与60%的分红底线存在缺口，市场分析认为，这意味着下半年 或存在补充分红空间。 近日，国电电力(600795)同步披露2025年半年度报告与《2025—2027年现金分红规划》。在营收短期承 压但核心盈利指标亮眼的半年报表现加持下，公司以制度性刚性承诺明确未来三年现金分红底线，不仅 为股东回报筑牢预期，更凭借盈利稳定性凸显电力行业高分红标的价值。 三年60%分红底线落定 多重条款保障承诺刚性 此次发布的《2025—2027年现金分红规划》，核心亮点在于明确的刚性分红条款：未来三年，在公司盈 利及累计未分配利润为正，且无12个月内投资/并购支出≥总资产10%（约510亿元）重大投资计划的前 提下，现金 ...

伴随港、A股牛市行情持续演绎，市场情绪高涨，但同时这也意味着越到后期市场的波动也将更为剧 烈，对于后来者而言，显然心理压力更大。 那么，在这种市场环境下，投资者普遍更青睐于追求那些既能提供安全边际，又能在牛市中展现弹性收 益的投资机会。 纵观整个市场，商业房托（REITs，房地产投资信托基金）能够满足这种市场对稳定性和增长潜力的双 重期待。 近期，正值招商局商业房托公布财报，不妨就此来探讨这背后的逻辑。 首先，是高分红构筑的安全垫。 商业房托的核心优势之一是其稳定的现金流和高分红政策。由于其主要收入来源是商业地产的租金收 入，这种收入相对稳定，受经济周期波动的影响相对较小。 以招商局商业房托来看，其持有多个甲级写字楼、创意写字楼和商业综合体。这些核心资产位于北京、 深圳核心地段，具有稳定的客流量和较高的租金收入。这种稳定的现金流使得招商房托能够持续进行高 分红，为投资者提供稳定的收益。 财报数据显示，2025年上半年，公司总收入达到2.25亿人民币，其中租金收入1.96亿人民币。另外公司 可分派收入达到5746万元。而截至目前公司的年化分派率则达到了9.1%，且自上市以来始终保持100% 派息率。显然，良好的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical [4] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong resilience in performance, with its health business stabilizing and recovering after restructuring [2] - Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical continues its tradition of high dividends, highlighting its long-term investment value [3] - The company is focused on expanding its product categories and enhancing channel strength, which is expected to drive revenue growth [3] Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 4,553 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.2%. The projected revenue for 2025E is 4,287 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is 719 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.1%. The projected net profit for 2025E is 868 million yuan, indicating a growth of 10.2% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per share, which accounts for 60.78% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [3] Strategic Positioning - Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical's strategy includes strengthening its OTC business, developing health consumer products, and expanding its prescription drug offerings [2] - The company aims to enhance its product matrix through brand integration and digital marketing, while also exploring high-quality resource integration and business development partnerships [2] - The company has a talent incentive mechanism in place, with over 50% of its research personnel benefiting from equity incentives, which is expected to stimulate innovation [2]

东阿阿胶分红率高达 99.94% 在本次分红潮中，东阿阿胶无疑是"大方"企业的代表之一。公司8月22日公告，拟以6.44亿股为基数，向全体股东每10股派发现金红利12.69元（含税），预 计现金分红总额高达8.17亿元，分红率达到99.94%。 业绩是高分红的坚实基础。2025年上半年，东阿阿胶实现营业收入30.51亿元，同比增长11.02%；归母净利润8.18亿元，同比增长10.74%。公司表示，此举 着眼于长远和可持续发展的目标，与所有股东分享经营发展的成果。 【环球网财经综合报道】随着上市公司2025年半年报密集披露，多家A股公司也向广大股东送出了丰厚的中期"现金红包"。从传统行业巨头到高成长科技企 业，慷慨的分红方案正成为一道亮丽的风景线，彰显了企业回报股东的诚意与实力。 中国石化领衔，多家公司派发 " 大红包 " 与东阿阿胶的极致慷慨相呼应，中国石化作为能源领域的关键企业，也拿出了堪称"壕气"的分红方案。公司拟每股派发现金股利0.088元（含税），按当前 总股本计算，2025年半年度合计拟派发股利106.70亿元（含税）。 除了上述两家公司，多家上市公司也加入了中期分红的行列。柏楚电子拟每10股派发 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple A-share companies announced substantial mid-year cash dividends, reflecting strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns [2][10]. Group 1: East A A Jiao - East A A Jiao plans to distribute a cash dividend of 12.69 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, totaling approximately 817 million yuan, which represents a dividend payout ratio of 99.94% of its net profit for the first half of 2025 [3][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.051 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking an 11.02% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 818 million yuan, up 10.74% year-on-year [3][5]. - Since its first dividend in 1999, East A A Jiao has distributed a total of 9.287 billion yuan in dividends [5]. Group 2: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) - Sinopec plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 10.67 billion yuan (including tax) for the first half of 2025, based on a per-share dividend of 0.088 yuan [10][13]. - The total share capital for the dividend calculation is approximately 121.245 billion shares [13]. Group 3: Other A-share Companies - Baichu Electronics intends to distribute a cash dividend of 6.66 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, totaling approximately 19.2 million yuan, which is 30.01% of its net profit for the first half of 2025 [10][16]. - Samsung Medical plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.85 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with an estimated total of 679 million yuan, representing 55.20% of its net profit [10][18]. - Yangnong Chemical plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.40 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, totaling approximately 9.73 million yuan, which is 12.07% of its net profit [10][18]. - Yiyi Co. plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.40 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares, with an estimated total of 4.42 million yuan, representing 43.25% of its net profit [10][18].

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月21日 投资建议：持续优化渠道产品结构，高分红价值持续，维持"优于大市" 公司持续完善多渠道布局、优化产品结构，通过多品类板材及辅料产品，提 升客单值和盈利能力，继续看好渠道下沉及小 B 渠道持续拉动，市占率提升 空间依旧巨大。考虑现阶段整体需求持续偏弱，下调盈利预测，预计 25-27 年 EPS 为 0.87/1.01/1.15 元/股（前值 0.96/1.04/1.14 元/股），对应 PE 为 11.9/10.3/9.1x，公司持续重视股东回报，积极实施中期分红，分红率达 86.7%，高分红价值持续，维持"优于大市"评级。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 9,063 | 9,189 | 8,867 | 9,503 | 10,092 | | (+/-%) | 1.6% | 1.4% | -3.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | | 净利润(百万元) | 689 | 585 | 728 | 841 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yangtze Power, has approved a significant investment of approximately 26.6 billion yuan for the construction of the Gezhouba shipping capacity expansion project, despite facing considerable shareholder opposition and potential impacts on future dividends [1][5]. Group 1: Project Details - The project received 96% approval at the shareholder meeting, but faced 5.72 billion shares in opposition and 1.55 billion shares in abstention [1]. - The project involves the construction of a new two-line single-level lock and the expansion of navigation channels, aimed at addressing the increasing shipping capacity needs on the Yangtze River [2]. - The project is expected to increase the annual power generation from the Gezhouba reservoir from approximately 15.8 billion kWh to 18 billion kWh, contributing to the overall efficiency of the Yangtze River's navigation and shipping operations [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The investment amount represents 82% of the company's projected net profit for 2024, which is estimated at 32.5 billion yuan [2]. - The project is anticipated to generate an additional revenue of 630 million yuan annually, offsetting the expected annual depreciation of 600 million yuan from the new infrastructure [3][4]. - The company has a strong cash flow position, with operational cash flow projected at 59.6 billion yuan and free cash flow at 45.2 billion yuan for 2024, allowing it to maintain a high dividend payout ratio [5][6]. Group 3: Dividend Concerns - The company has a history of high dividend payouts, with a cash dividend of 23.1 billion yuan planned for 2024, representing 71% of its net profit [5]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the potential impact of the new project on future dividend payments, with estimates suggesting a possible decrease in dividend yield from 3.4% to 3% by 2026 [5]. - The company has committed to maintaining a dividend payout of no less than 70% of its net profit for the years 2026 to 2030, despite the new investment [5].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist for China, Wang Ying, suggests a shift in stock allocation towards A-shares due to lower sensitivity to geopolitical risks compared to Hong Kong stocks, especially with the pressure of new consumption stock unlocks concentrated in Hong Kong [1] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been strong since the beginning of the year, while A-shares have shown significant improvement since June, particularly in sectors like AI, high-end manufacturing, and electric vehicle batteries, which are gaining global recognition [1] Group 2 - Wang Ying holds a positive view on A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, believing it will attract more quality companies and global investors, with a sustained demand for Chinese assets as the Federal Reserve approaches interest rate cuts [2] - In the first seven months of the year, net inflows from southbound funds exceeded $110 billion, surpassing the total for the previous year, with optimism for continued inflows despite a potential slight slowdown [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin its first interest rate cut in March 2024, with a total of seven cuts expected by 2026, which may occur later than some market expectations [3] - A weaker dollar is anticipated as the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to benefit Chinese assets and lead to a slight appreciation of the RMB against the USD [3] Group 4 - There is a growing confidence in China's technological innovation and the ability to produce world-class companies, leading to increased asset allocation towards China, particularly in AI and high-dividend sectors [4] - The "anti-involution" policy in mainland China is expected to positively impact the stock market over the next 12 to 24 months by optimizing resource allocation and enhancing corporate profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][16]. Core Insights - The company's profitability in meat products remains high, and its high dividend payout underscores its investment value [3][5]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 28.50 billion in 1H25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.32 billion, up 1.2% year-on-year [8][3]. - The report projects revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 61.5 billion, RMB 63.4 billion, and RMB 66.2 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 5.2 billion, RMB 5.4 billion, and RMB 5.7 billion [14]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 1H25, the meat products segment generated revenue of RMB 11.21 billion, down 9.4% year-on-year, with an operating profit of RMB 2.98 billion, a decrease of 10.4% year-on-year [9][10]. - The slaughtering segment achieved revenue of RMB 13.77 billion, up 3.3% year-on-year, with a sales volume of approximately 689,000 tonnes, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year [10][9]. - The overall profitability improvement in 2Q25 was driven by enhanced profit per tonne in the meat products segment and effective loss reduction in the poultry farming business [11][12]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 6.5 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 2.25 billion, with a payout ratio exceeding 100% [5][13]. - Cumulative cash dividends from 2020 to 2024 amounted to RMB 27.987 billion, with an average payout ratio of 104.49% [5][13]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report estimates forward P/E ratios of 16.6x for 2025, 16.0x for 2026, and 15.2x for 2027 [14]. - The target price is set at RMB 29.91, based on a 20x P/E for 2025 [14].