智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，受益行业基本面受到供给和需求端的双重好转，煤价涨幅持 续超预期，供给侧反内卷政策影响下煤矿安监力度加强，超产情况有望进一步减少，煤炭供给收缩预期 强化；需求端拉尼娜现象下冷冬预期推动冬储需求，同时今年国庆前后天气反常，东南沿海出现罕见高 温，推动煤炭日耗达到历史高位。市场风偏方面，贸易冲突再起后可能导致本就有高低切的风格切换诉 求来的更加剧烈。无论是防守型的红利属性，还是低位基本面有明显拐点的煤炭可能对于市场的吸引力 都在大幅度提升。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 供给端：反内卷影响下的煤炭供给，收缩幅度全行业领跑。随着7月国家能源局插手煤炭"反内卷"，7-8 月煤炭全国产量为3.8亿、3.9亿吨，明显弱于过去1年半的月均产量(约4亿吨)。8月份，规上工业原煤产 量3.9亿吨，同比下降3.2%，环比7月增加1000万吨产量，展望全年产量，预计Q4受"查超产"影响全国产 量预计小幅环比下降，预计后续9-12月产量预计维持3.9-4亿吨单月，全年产量47.5亿吨左右，同比下降 3000-5000万吨。 需求端：8月全社会用电总量累计增长已经回至4.6%，相较Q1的仅2.5%增长快 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the coal sector, particularly coking coal and thermal coal markets, highlighting recent price movements and supply-demand dynamics [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Coking Coal Market Performance - Coking coal prices have shown significant increases, with Shanxi main coking coal prices rising from 1,420 CNY to 1,650 CNY, an increase of 230 CNY, and Mongolian coal prices increasing from 950 CNY to 1,200 CNY, a rise of approximately 250 CNY [3][4]. - Australian coking coal prices also increased by about 7 USD, equivalent to approximately 1,570 CNY after tax [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coking coal sector is recommended based on positive changes in both supply and demand. Steel production is expected to increase, with iron water output rising against seasonal trends [4][7]. - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to environmental inspections in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, which are expected to last for about two months [7][10]. Policy Impact - The release of Document No. 108 by the Energy Bureau aims to stabilize energy prices through production checks, which will impact both thermal and coking coal supplies positively [8][10]. - The policy has alleviated market concerns regarding coal price floors and long-term contract pricing stability, indicating a clear demand for continued investment in the coal sector [9][10]. Future Outlook - The coal industry is expected to experience a bottoming process in 2025 and 2026, with a peak in supply from newly constructed mines during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. However, demand may be pressured by the growth of solar energy installations [12]. - Coking coal prices are projected to maintain an upward trend due to low inventory levels and positive demand forecasts, with companies like Lu'an Huanneng and Shenhua Energy recommended for investment [4][17]. Company Recommendations - Lu'an Huanneng is highlighted for its strong performance potential, with an annualized profit of approximately 2 billion CNY, which could rise to 6 billion CNY with a 300 CNY price increase [17]. - Shenhua Energy and China Coal Energy are noted as long-term beneficiaries of dividend opportunities in the coal sector [17][18]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is cautious, with concerns about price stability and the impact of policies on supply dynamics. However, the recent policy measures are expected to provide a supportive environment for price recovery [9][15]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on bottom-fishing opportunities in the coal sector, particularly in coking coal, while also considering stable dividend-paying companies in the thermal coal segment [18]. Additional Important Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a rebound from a negative cycle to a positive cycle, with a low probability of returning to previous low price levels [15][16]. - The overall economic implications of the policies suggest a need for stable resource prices to avoid negative impacts on economic activity [18].