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平煤股份(601666):量增价减、少数股东损益增加致盈利承压,重视高成本优质主焦煤龙头困境反转机会
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-10 10:17
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 280 million yuan, down 1.77 billion yuan year-on-year (-86%). In Q3 2025, the net profit was 20 million yuan, a decrease of 630 million yuan (-97%) year-on-year and a decrease of 80 million yuan (-79%) quarter-on-quarter. The company's main coking coal occupies a leading position in the industry, with scarce resources and high costs, showing significant elasticity in price increases. The long-term contract price for coking coal is expected to further rebound in Q4, which may improve quarterly profitability [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved a raw coal output of 19.65 million tons, a decrease of 530,000 tons (-3%) year-on-year. The sales volume of commercial coal was 18.17 million tons, down 1.91 million tons (-10%). In Q3 2025, the raw coal output was 5.12 million tons, down 850,000 tons (-14%) year-on-year and down 1.91 million tons (-27%) quarter-on-quarter. The sales volume of commercial coal was 6.44 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons (-2%) year-on-year but an increase of 1.02 million tons (+19%) quarter-on-quarter [12]. Pricing and Costs - The average selling price of coal for Q1-Q3 2025 was 723 yuan/ton, down 309 yuan/ton (-30%) year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the average selling price was 642 yuan/ton, down 277 yuan/ton (-30%) year-on-year and down 132 yuan/ton (-17%) quarter-on-quarter. The cost per ton of coal for Q1-Q3 2025 was 578 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton (-19%) year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the cost was 503 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton (-17%) year-on-year [12]. Profitability - The gross profit per ton of coal for Q1-Q3 2025 was 145 yuan/ton, down 169 yuan/ton (-54%), with a gross profit margin of 20%, down 10 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the gross profit per ton was 139 yuan/ton, down 171 yuan/ton (-55%), with a gross profit margin of 22%, down 12 percentage points year-on-year but up 2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The total gross profit for Q3 2025 was 890 million yuan, down 1.15 billion yuan (-56%) year-on-year but up 80 million yuan (+10%) quarter-on-quarter [12]. Strategic Developments - The company successfully acquired exploration rights for the Tarcheng Baiyanghe Mine in Xinjiang, covering 1.668 billion tons of coal, for 1.748 billion yuan in 2024. Additionally, it acquired a 60% stake in the Siku Coal Mine and is actively expanding overseas, indicating potential for medium to long-term growth [2][12]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 400 million yuan, 700 million yuan, and 700 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 53.90, 30.23, and 28.45 times [12].