燃料油供需与价格走势
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燃料油产业数据月报-20251110
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 12:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In terms of refinery operations and production, multiple regions globally underwent maintenance, leading to a decline in global fuel oil production as refinery operations decreased. Low - sulfur production regions such as Kuwait, Japan, and Brazil had significant refinery maintenance, resulting in a supply shortage of low - sulfur components. The bunker fuel market showed a lackluster performance, while the feedstock demand in India and China marginally increased [6]. - Regarding prices and spreads, global fuel oil prices generally declined during the month. Low - sulfur fuel oil was more resistant to price drops due to the supply shortage, causing a significant upward trend in the cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region. For high - sulfur fuel oil, spot transactions in the entire Asia - Pacific region were more active in October compared to September, but the spot premium remained low, suggesting relatively ample supply. Some refineries in the Middle East are expected to resume operations in November, increasing high - sulfur output and continuing to put pressure on prices. For low - sulfur fuel oil, refinery maintenance in Brazil, Japan, and Kuwait in October led to a sudden strengthening of the overseas low - sulfur market. Meanwhile, Chinese state - owned enterprises converted some low - sulfur export quotas to refined oil exports, causing a strengthening trend in the domestic LU market. However, overseas refineries will resume operations in mid - to late November, and the remaining export quota is still relatively sufficient. Once the overseas low - sulfur market drops due to increased supply, the opening of the internal - external arbitrage window will attract more spot goods to flow into China, pressuring the domestic spot and LU markets [6]. - In summary, high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to show a volatile trend in November, unless there are new supply - side emergencies. The positive supply - side factors for low - sulfur fuel oil have basically been priced in by the market as of early November. Subsequently, as overseas supply resumes, there is a possibility of a weakening in both domestic and overseas low - sulfur fuel oil markets, and risks of price and spread retracements need to be guarded against [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Fuel Oil Spot Prices and Spreads - **Price Changes**: Global fuel oil prices generally declined during the month. For example, the FOB price of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore decreased by 7.78%, and the FOB price of 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore decreased by 3.02%. Different regions and grades of fuel oil showed varying degrees of price declines [8]. - **Spread Changes**: The cracking spreads of low - sulfur fuel oil in many regions showed an upward trend, while those of high - sulfur fuel oil mostly declined. For instance, the Singapore low - sulfur cracking spread increased by 55.75%, and the Singapore high - sulfur cracking spread decreased by 8.58% [8][10]. 3.2 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Refinery operations in multiple regions globally decreased due to maintenance. In Northeast Asia, regions such as Japan and South Korea, as well as in the Middle East, South Asia, and Latin America, showed varying degrees of refinery operation declines. In Europe and the United States, refinery operations also had different trends [91][98][101]. - **Production Changes**: The production of major fuel oil - producing countries globally showed different trends. Some countries' production decreased due to refinery maintenance, while others' production was affected by various factors such as market demand and policy adjustments [110][112][119]. 3.3 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Demand - **Regional Demand**: The fuel oil demand in different regions showed different trends. The bunker fuel market demand was lackluster, while the feedstock demand in India and China marginally increased. The demand in regions such as the Asia - Pacific, the Middle East, and North America also had their own characteristics [6][122]. - **Singapore Bunker Fuel Market**: The sales volume of Singapore's bunker fuel market showed different trends for high - sulfur, low - sulfur, and marine diesel fuel [134]. 3.4 Global High - and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Logistics - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The import and export volumes of high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions showed different trends. Russia, the Middle East, and Latin America were major high - sulfur fuel oil exporters, while China, the Middle East, and the United States were major importers [143][147]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The import and export volumes of low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions also showed different trends. The Middle East, Northwest Europe, and Latin America were major low - sulfur fuel oil exporters, while Singapore + Malaysia, China, and the United States were major importers [150][153]. 3.5 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Inventory and Floating Storage - **Inventory Changes**: The fuel oil inventories in regions such as Singapore, Fujeirah, Europe ARA, and the United States showed different trends. For example, Singapore's heavy oil inventory decreased by 2.32%, while Fujeirah's heavy distillate oil inventory increased by 41.16% [158][164]. - **Singapore Floating Storage**: The floating storage situation of fuel oil in Singapore showed different trends for different grades [166]. 3.6 Domestic Fuel Oil Market Supply and Consumption - **Production and Supply**: China's fuel oil production, commodity volume, and the capacity utilization rate of catalytic units in Shandong refineries showed different trends. The production and supply were affected by factors such as refinery operations and market demand [171]. - **Bonded Port Supply, Consumption, and Inventory**: The supply, consumption, and inventory of fuel oil in bonded ports in China, including the total inventory in bonded areas, the production of low - sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries, and the port inventory of bonded warehouses in Dalian, Qingdao, and Zhoushan, showed different trends [177].