Macro Outlook - The US is expected to gradually clarify its trade, fiscal, and monetary policies in Q3 2025 after significant fluctuations in H1 2025[2] - The US inventory cycle is likely to shift towards active destocking in Q2 2025 due to the permanent impact of tariffs on trade relations with China[2] - The capital expenditure cycle is anticipated to enter a downward phase in H2 2025, with a slight decline in overall capital expenditure in 2024 compared to 2023[3] Equity Market Insights - The US stock market has shown a recovery since mid-April 2025, with ongoing upward momentum supported by advancements in artificial intelligence and favorable legislation[3] - The total market capitalization of US stocks accounted for 60% of global equity market capitalization by the end of 2024, indicating a high concentration risk[7] - A shift towards a weaker dollar is expected, which may alleviate the concentration of US assets globally and reduce the risk of asset bubbles[7] A-Share Market Strategy - In July 2025, the A-share market is likely to experience upward index breakthroughs, with technology and non-bank sectors expected to outperform[8] - The median increase in individual stock prices has reached 8.5% in 2025, contributing to a positive market sentiment[9] - The upcoming earnings reports are anticipated to provide upward momentum for A-shares, particularly in technology, consumption, and midstream manufacturing sectors[12] Fixed Income Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a friendly environment due to low inflation and balanced supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on local government bonds[16][18] - The yield on 10-year government bonds peaked at 1.9% in March 2025 and has since fluctuated, indicating a cautious outlook for interest rates[15] Real Estate Market Trends - New home sales in 39 cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 14% as of late June 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market[26] - The average price of land transactions has increased by 31% despite a 7% drop in transaction volume, highlighting a divergence in market dynamics[27] - The overall inventory cycle for unsold properties has lengthened, suggesting a need for policy adjustments to stimulate demand[28]