证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 11 日 10 月，信用策略如何布局？ ——信用策略系列报告 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 赵孟田 SAC：S1350525070004 zhaomengtian@huayuanstock.com 拉长时间维度到 2025Q3，短端下沉策略仍然是相对占优的策略选择。2025Q3，10Y 国 债收益率从季度初的 1.64%调整至 9/30 的 1.86%（以中债国债到期收益率曲线列示的数据为 准），不同期限不同券种的信用债收益率在 2025Q3 也都跟随利率出现不同程度调整，持续的 下跌行情使得市场情绪趋向谨慎。2025Q3，不同券种的短端下沉策略组合均有正收益，3Y AAA-产业债子弹型策略也录得正收益，除此以外的其他策略对组合收益均有负向贡献，其中 城投债哑铃型、二级债哑铃型、银行永续债哑铃型和拉久期策略的亏损均达到了 1%以上。值 得注意的是，无论何种策略，在 9 月份或是三季度所能够获得的资本利得均为负值，在票息 保护本就相对较弱 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that after a period of adjustment, the equity market has resumed its upward trend, with the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index reaching new highs for the year [2][10][11] - The market's overall performance has not shown signs of decline despite recent fluctuations, with trading volume remaining above 2 trillion yuan, reflecting strong short-term market sentiment [2][10][11] - Positive macroeconomic indicators, such as recovering PPI data and strong core CPI, along with stable industrial output and retail sales, have provided a solid foundation for market growth [2][10][11] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of core sectors, particularly in the context of a structural market rally driven by performance expectations in the technology innovation sectors [3][11][13] - It suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending continued investment in strong concepts within the innovation sectors like chips and robotics while also considering defensive positions in metals and gold [5][14] - The report highlights that the current market environment remains favorable for strong sectors, with liquidity at high levels and a lack of negative factors in the medium to long term [3][11][14] Group 3 - The bond market is experiencing a decline as funds flow into equities, making it less attractive for investors, with a recommendation to consider flexible short-term bonds to hedge risks [6][36] - In the commodity market, gold stands out as a strong performer amidst a generally volatile environment, with ongoing central bank purchases reinforcing its investment appeal [7][37] - The report advises maintaining gold positions in the short term while adopting a wait-and-see approach for the medium to long term [8][38]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Outlook - The fixed income market is expected to gradually recover in September, with a recommendation for a gradual increase in allocation and a preference for a barbell strategy [3] - The anticipated reduction in pressure from the stock market on the bond market is due to the continuous decrease in non-bank positions and the increase in allocation by institutional investors [3] - The adjustment space for interest rates is limited, with the upper limits for 10-year and 30-year government bonds projected at around 1.8% and 2.1% respectively [3] Group 2: Banking Sector Overview - The banking sector is benefiting from the repricing of deposits and improved management of funding costs, leading to a continued trend of narrowing interest margins [5] - Overall asset quality is expected to remain stable, with manageable credit cost pressures, suggesting stable profit growth for the year [5] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights Cloud Computing - Cloud Computing Company (云赛智联) reported a revenue of 3.132 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.25%, while net profit decreased by 15.94% [6] - The company is positioned well in the digital economy with core capabilities in cloud services and data elements, leading to an adjusted revenue forecast of approximately 6.489 billion yuan for 2025 [6] Medical Sector - KaiLi Medical (开立医疗) reported a revenue of 964 million yuan for H1 2025, a decline of 4.78%, with a significant drop in net profit by 72.43% [9] - The company is expected to see revenue recovery driven by terminal bidding recovery, with a focus on new product launches [9] - Yuyue Medical (鱼跃医疗) achieved a revenue of 4.659 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 8.16% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.37% [11] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in home medical devices, indicating strong future growth potential [11] - Microelectrophysiology (微电生理) reported a revenue of 224 million yuan for H1 2025, a growth of 12.80%, with net profit increasing by 92.02% [13] - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix and maintaining high growth in international markets [13] - United Imaging (联影医疗) achieved a revenue of 6.016 billion yuan in H1 2025, a growth of 12.79%, with net profit increasing by 5.03% [17] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance product capabilities and is seeing strong growth in both domestic and international markets [17] - Mindray Medical (迈瑞医疗) reported a revenue of 16.743 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decline of 18.45%, but is expected to see a turnaround in Q3 due to recovering market conditions [19] - The company is focusing on high-potential business segments and has a strong R&D pipeline [19] Home Appliances - Anfu Technology (安孚科技) reported a total revenue of 2.43 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, driven by export growth [22] - The company is expected to see significant profit growth in the coming years, with net profit projections of 330 million yuan for 2025 [22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][19]. Core Views - The report highlights that Blackwell deployment is progressing smoothly, while there are uncertainties regarding business in China. The management has indicated that some Chinese customers have received export licenses from the U.S. government, but NVIDIA did not deliver H20 products in FY2Q26. Excluding revenue from China, the management's guidance for FY3Q26 revenue is a median of $54 billion, with a gross margin median of 73.5% [6][11]. - The report also notes the release of Spectrum XGS, which is expected to enhance the optimization capabilities of data center networks and could generate annualized revenue of $10 billion. The Rubin series of new chips is in the foundry stage and is expected to launch in 2H26, with significant upgrades over Blackwell [6][10]. - The target price for NVIDIA has been raised to $204, corresponding to a 33x FY27E price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting adjustments in revenue forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 [6][11]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - FY2024: $60,922 million - FY2025: $130,497 million - FY2026E: $207,043 million - FY2027E: $269,112 million - FY2028E: $287,367 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 125.9% for FY2024, 114.2% for FY2025, 58.7% for FY2026, 30.0% for FY2027, and 6.8% for FY2028 [5][21]. - Net profit estimates are as follows: - FY2024: $32,312 million - FY2025: $74,265 million - FY2026E: $110,138 million - FY2027E: $152,118 million - FY2028E: $158,785 million - Earnings per share (EPS) projections are: - FY2024: $1.30 - FY2025: $2.99 - FY2026E: $4.44 - FY2027E: $6.19 - FY2028E: $6.46 [5][21]. Market Performance - The stock price closed at $181.60 with a target price of $204.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.3% [19][20]. - The company has shown a year-to-date price change of 34.16% and has a market capitalization of $4,396,148 million [4][21]. Product Strategy - The report discusses NVIDIA's "dumbbell strategy," focusing on developing both "highly standardized" and "highly open" products. This includes the Blackwell GB200/300 NVL72 cabinet products and the NVLink Fusion and Spectrum-XGS Ethernet connection systems, which aim to enhance compatibility with various accelerators and improve market competitiveness [9][10].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 28%, leading major global indices and reaching a nearly four-year high [1] - Foreign capital is rapidly increasing its allocation to Chinese assets, with emerging market funds reducing their holdings in Indian stocks and increasing their allocations to H-shares and A-shares [1][3] - In July, foreign funds saw a significant inflow into Chinese stocks, increasing from $1.2 billion in June to $2.7 billion [1][3] Group 2 - Domestic investors are also increasing their investments in the Hong Kong stock market, with southbound capital net buying reaching a record high of HKD 35.876 billion on August 15 [1][5] - Southbound capital has become a core source of funds for the Hong Kong market, with cumulative net inflows exceeding HKD 970 billion this year [5] - The technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceutical sectors have attracted significant capital, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug index rising over 58% in the past year [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts believe that the rise of the Hong Kong stock market is driven by both internal and external factors, including a weakening US dollar and a low interest rate environment in mainland China [3][4] - The "barbell strategy" is prevalent among institutional investors, focusing on both dividend-yielding assets and growth sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][9] - The potential for a preventive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive international capital towards emerging markets, including Hong Kong [11][12] Group 4 - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is sensitive to changes in US monetary policy, with historical data showing varying impacts of rate cuts on market performance [11][12] - Current trends indicate that the technology sector in Hong Kong may maintain strong momentum, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [13]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance this year, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 28%, reaching a nearly four-year high [1] - Foreign capital has rapidly increased its allocation to Chinese assets, with foreign funds inflowing into Chinese stocks accelerating from $1.2 billion in June to $2.7 billion in July [1][2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are adopting a "barbell strategy," focusing on both conservative dividend-paying assets and growth sectors like technology and new consumption [6][7] - The "barbell strategy" has proven effective over the past two years, driven by a favorable interest rate environment [6] Group 3: Sector Analysis - Southbound funds have become a core source of capital for the Hong Kong market, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding HKD 970 billion this year [4] - Significant net purchases by southbound funds in sectors such as financials, information technology, and healthcare have been observed, with amounts reaching HKD 416 billion, HKD 320 billion, and HKD 220 billion respectively [4] Group 4: Economic Factors - The weakening of the US dollar, which has dropped 9.4% since the beginning of the year, has prompted investors to reconsider their strategies and diversify into more attractively valued Chinese assets [2] - The low interest rate environment in mainland China has encouraged more domestic investors to diversify their investments into Hong Kong stocks [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The potential for a "preventive rate cut" by the Federal Reserve could lead to increased capital flow into emerging markets, including Hong Kong [10] - The technology sector is expected to maintain strong momentum in the second half of the year, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the evolution of asset classes from a "bond bull market" to a "stock bull market" since the significant policy adjustments on September 24, 2022, influenced by a low interest rate environment [1][4] - The current market is experiencing an "asset shortage," leading asset management institutions to seek higher credit risk assets with larger credit spreads [1][3] - The phenomenon of high equity risk premiums compared to low bond credit spreads has only occurred three times in the past decade, indicating a significant market divergence [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is gradually recovering, with M1 growth exceeding market expectations, influenced by fiscal policy and trade surpluses converting into corporate cash [4][5] - The "barbell strategy" in stock investment has shown strong performance, combining large-cap and small-cap stocks, as well as high-dividend and high-volatility assets [4][6] - Recent trends indicate a reversal in mid-cap and mid-valuation sectors, supported by domestic policies aimed at clearing ineffective supply and improving asset profitability [5][6] Group 3 - Internationally, the focus on artificial intelligence investments is notable, but there is potential for growth in manufacturing-related investments due to rising industrial prices in the U.S. [5][6] - U.S. companies exhibit a positive outlook on capital expenditures across various sectors, which may significantly impact global midstream industries [6]

Core Viewpoint - The five major A-share listed insurance companies in China believe that the current equity market has strategic allocation value, despite market fluctuations and declining interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Performance - In 2021, the five major insurance companies achieved a total net profit of CNY 215.96 billion, with China Ping An, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China Property & Casualty, and New China Life reporting net profits of CNY 101.62 billion, CNY 50.92 billion, CNY 26.83 billion, CNY 21.64 billion, and CNY 14.95 billion respectively [2]. - The investment yield for these companies remained around 5%, with New China Life achieving the highest total investment yield of 5.90% and China Property & Casualty having the highest net investment yield at 4.80% [2]. - The successful investment performance is attributed to a "barbell strategy," which involves combining two types of investment products with significantly different styles [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Insurance companies see the current market adjustment as a release of risks and an opportunity for long-term investment, with a belief that the equity market is showing strategic allocation value [3]. - The macroeconomic environment in 2022 is expected to support steady growth, providing a solid foundation for the equity market [3]. - Current market valuations are considered relatively low, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index below the 30th percentile of their valuations over the past decade [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The focus for future equity asset allocation will be on sectors aligned with national policy directions, such as carbon neutrality, digital economy, and healthcare [4][5]. - Companies are looking to capitalize on structural investment opportunities arising from traditional industries' valuation recovery and emerging strategic sectors like consumption upgrades and technological innovation [4][5]. - There is an emphasis on exploring investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market and diversifying equity investments [5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of the stock market, particularly focusing on the Shanghai Composite Index and its key resistance levels, indicating a bullish market trend [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Status**: The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded quickly around the 3,550 level, indicating a bullish main upward trend, with key support levels at the 20-day moving average and 3,550 [1][2][4]. 2. **Bull-Bear Boundary**: The 120-day moving average serves as the bull-bear boundary, with the 20-day and 60-day moving averages indicating different market states [5]. 3. **Market Divergence**: Despite the overall market rally, there is internal divergence, as the Shanghai 50 index has broken its upward trend line, suggesting potential weakness in upward momentum [6][7]. 4. **Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors experienced a broad rally, but there was no clear leading sector. The pharmaceutical sector faced a pullback due to the decline in Hong Kong's innovative drug stocks [8][9]. 5. **Psychological Resistance**: The index faces psychological resistance at 3,674, with uncertainties arising from the expiration of the U.S. tariff suspension period [12][13]. 6. **Volume Concerns**: The recent market rebound has been accompanied by a significant reduction in trading volume, indicating insufficient selling pressure and potential risks of a market top [14][15]. 7. **Short-term Strategy**: Short-term trading strategies should be cautious, as there is a high probability of adjustment after reaching 3,674, with a need to monitor new market hotspots for further upward movement [16][17]. 8. **Long-term Outlook**: The market is expected to exhibit a systematic slow bull pattern, supported by overall market sentiment, capital flow, policy supply, and international conditions [19]. 9. **Sector Focus**: Attention should be given to cyclical recovery and value rebound sectors such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture, as well as technology sectors like communications and pharmaceuticals [29]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The market is currently at a critical juncture, with potential shifts in investment styles from growth to value, influenced by previous strong performances of certain sectors [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the current environment, investors are advised to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, particularly in sectors showing potential for recovery [27]. - **Quantitative Models**: Utilizing quantitative models to identify stocks with favorable characteristics can be an effective strategy in the current market [26][30]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market conditions and future outlook.

Domestic Economic Data - The first phase of anti-involution may lead to a decline in the operating rate of the midstream sector to levels seen in the past two years, with a noticeable adjustment already occurring [1][3] - Since July, the sales of commercial housing in 30 major cities have consistently been lower than last year [1][3] - The sharp drop in port throughput in the first week of August indicates the end of the export rush that began in July [1][3] Asset Market Insights - Liquidity may be approaching a short-term bottleneck, with DR007 currently at around 1.45%, indicating short-term pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets [1][3] - The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may not be followed by China [1][3] - As the China-U.S. interest rate differential narrows and the PPI year-on-year bottoms out, domestic assets may shift from a barbell strategy to focus on inflation and domestic demand [1][3] Overseas Economic Developments - On August 7, Trump nominated Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve Board, indicating a potential MAGA trend within the Fed, which could pave the way for future rate cuts [2][4] - Recent dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest that if the July CPI meets market expectations, a hint of rate cuts may be given at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting on August 21-23 [2][4] - The market has already fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting [2][4] Trade and Inflation Data - In July, China's exports were valued at $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, while imports were $223.54 billion, up 4.1%, resulting in a trade deficit of $98.24 billion, which is a 14.93% increase year-on-year [9][10] - The CPI for July was flat year-on-year at 0.0%, while the PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the industrial sector [10] Monetary Market Overview - The overall liquidity remained loose, with the benchmark interest rate rising by approximately 0.09 basis points [12] - The average weekly value of DR001 decreased by 5.586 basis points to 1.3142%, while DR007 fell by 8.246 basis points to 1.4457% [13] - Government bond issuance pressure has significantly decreased, with a planned issuance of 351.43 billion yuan next week, down from 634 billion yuan this week [14]