证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 节后行情或是关键 【20251222-20251228】 核心观点 大类资产总览：多重热点爆发，市场表现火热。 本周，权益市场表现亮眼，多重热点共振，带动市场上行。 市场量能小幅拉升，不断逼近两万亿，显示出当前市场对年 后行情的乐观预期。从市场角度来看，上证指数走出八连阳， 整体趋势向上，场内投资者信心有所提振，对于市场中长期 向上趋势的判断一定程度上对冲了节前避险情绪，促使市场 发力向上。而从消息面角度来看，人民币兑美元汇率升值， 国内市场对于海外资金吸引力更强，宏观政策可操作空间更 大，商业航空、6G、小金属、电池等多模块迎来利好消息， 多板块协同发力下，为市场上行带来增量动能。本周债市一 反常态，不再同权益市场反向表现，反而一致向上。商品市 场同样走出上行行情，贵金属持续发力，白银屡创新高，多 品类共振，带动商品市场走强。 本周 A 股观点：节后行情或是关键。 本周 A 股表现亮眼，上证指数持续上扬，结合上周行情，共 计走出八连阳，对市场情绪起到了显著的提振作用。而场内 多个热点板块集体共振，为市场上行提供了显著的增量动 能。从短期来看， ...

当8连阳与4000点希望相遇，股民手中的筹码将迎来关键时刻。 截至12月26日，沪指豪取8连阳，全周有超3400家股票上涨，为12月以来最好的一周 这让市场对在年底前站上4000点多了一份期待 不过，最后一个交易周（12月28日至31日）仅剩三天，股民在享受连阳喜悦的同时，更需保持一份清醒 刚过去的交易周，A股延续了反弹势头。Wind数据显示，全A平均股价全周上涨3.15%，周中最高触及27.03元，追平了9月18日盘中创下的年内高点 其他主要股指本周走势也与之相仿。这让投资者多了一份期待——能否再接再厉，在跨年之前站上4000点 不过市场在乐观中也有波折。12月27日周五盘中突发集体跳水，被认为是市场分歧的一次预演 这其中竟然有1019亿来自于A500ETF，占比达到92.2% 强劲的增量资金，成为12月下旬春季躁动的进一步推动力，叠加前期的积极要素，助力上证指数实现8连阳 机构对春季行情的提前启动抱有期待。复盘历史，春季行情通常始于11月底或12月初，并运行至2月附近 华金证券认为，明年1月春季行情可能延续，A股可能震荡偏强 对于这波增量资金的影响，开源证券分析，如果资金是临时"冲量"，考虑到其"新增"属 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The current wealth management market (2025-2026) shows increased differentiation and stratification compared to the previous cycle (2020-2021), with a focus on matching client needs [5][10] - Financial institutions are transitioning from a "sell-side" sales model to a "buy-side" advisory model, emphasizing long-term service capabilities and precise matching of client needs [5][10] - Investment opportunities are expected to favor financial institutions with a strong middle-to-high value client base, comprehensive services, and innovative product offerings [5][10] Summary by Sections Common Logic of Two Cycles - Both cycles are characterized by ample liquidity supporting asset prices, with the previous cycle driven by aggressive monetary and fiscal policies, while the current cycle is marked by low interest rates and excess precautionary savings [9][16] - Clear industry trends guide capital flows, with the previous cycle dominated by consumption and new energy, while the current cycle is led by AI and hard technology [9][22] - The trend of asset migration from real estate to financial assets is irreversible, continuing the financialization process [9][25] Core Differences of Two Cycles - The macro environment has shifted from "strong stimulus expansion" to "weak recovery defense," with a focus on stabilizing growth and managing risks [25][27] - There is a notable change in resident expectations and risk preferences, with a shift from broad income growth to increased differentiation among income groups [35][38] - Asset allocation logic has evolved from a singular offensive strategy to a diversified and balanced approach, incorporating defensive assets alongside growth opportunities [46][50] Characteristics of the Previous Cycle - The previous cycle was driven by strong stimulus measures, resulting in a significant recovery in GDP and a structural bull market in equities, particularly in high-growth sectors [3][9] - The investment behavior was aggressive, with high turnover and a focus on chasing high-performing assets, leading to a "star chasing" phenomenon among investors [3][9] Current Cycle and Future Characteristics - The current cycle is characterized by low interest rates and a new normal of asset revaluation, with a gradual but steady migration of assets [10][25] - The asset side is moving towards a balanced approach, with a mix of high-dividend and growth assets, and an increasing preference for alternative investments as risk hedges [10][50] - Financial institutions are expected to focus on client segmentation, asset allocation capabilities, and long-term service value, with a shift towards a "buy-side" advisory model [10][55]

当所有人盯着美元时，180亿美金已悄然"东归"。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：藏金洞） 洞主江湖说：我说的可能都是错的，但值得你去探索和反思。 亲爱的藏金洞友们： 美联储的"假摔"被日本央行的"真刀"刺破，全球资本格局一夜惊变。 这场万亿暗战的真相，比你想象的更残酷。 谁能想到，2025年这凛冬将至的时刻，捅出惊天一刀的，不是那个天天喊着要再次伟大的美国金毛大统领，而是那个平时唯唯诺诺、跟在后面拎包的日本 小弟？ 就在刚才，日本央行突然拔刀了！ 这一刀，快、准、狠。 但这仅仅是开始。 因为在这一刀的寒光背后，A股这场潜伏已久的"万亿暗战"，终于也是藏不住了。 今天，洞主就给大家好好剥一剥这盘大蒜，虽然辣眼睛，但咱们得看清里面的芯儿。 师弟的"背刺"，师兄的"假摔" 咱们先看美国那边。 这一年来，美联储就像个练了"吸星大法"的老怪，每次开会都给你抛个媚眼，说："宝贝，我要降息了，我要散功了。" 结果呢？ 这一看12月的点阵图，好家伙，2026年居然只隐含了1次降息！ 市场原本押注的是3次啊。 这哪是降息？ 这是赤裸裸的"鹰派宽松"，这是在玩"假摔"。 美国人的算盘打得那是啪啪响：嘴上喊松，实际上通过"迷你QE"每个 ...

Group 1 - The overall asset performance indicates that various asset classes have entered a period of fluctuation, with the equity market experiencing a high-level consolidation phase, primarily driven by the technology sector, while consumer and cyclical sectors remain weak [1][6]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut was weaker than expected, limiting its positive impact on the U.S. and global economies, which in turn affects the capital markets [1][6]. - The Central Economic Work Conference in China reiterated a stable growth approach, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and improving investment, although the implementation of these policies may take time to materialize [2][10]. Group 2 - The A-share market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with limited substantial positive news and a preference for stability as the new year approaches [2][10]. - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for asset allocation, recommending maintaining positions in the technology sector while cautiously considering opportunities in the consumer sector due to recent positive macro data [2][11]. - The technology sector is expected to remain a core driver of market performance, with significant opportunities arising from national competition and domestic innovation [10][11]. Group 3 - The bond market is following the trends of the equity market, showing a clear negative correlation, and is expected to remain under pressure without significant positive catalysts [3][32]. - The bond market's configuration suggests limited upward potential in the short term, but it may serve as a stabilizing option against equity market volatility [32]. Group 4 - The commodity market is experiencing a return to a fluctuating trend, with precious metals like silver supporting the upward movement of the precious metals index, while energy and chemical commodities are underperforming [4][41]. - The report anticipates that gold may continue to rise in the long term, driven by a decoupling from the U.S. dollar, although the overall strength of the commodity market will depend on the performance of metals and agricultural products [41][45].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 固定收益定期 哪些力量能够帮助债市企稳？ 本周债市总体小幅走强，但过程中震荡明显。 本周债市在前半周逐步修复，周 四中央经济工作会议再度提及降准降息之后，利率下行明显，但周五却再度明 显调整并基本回吐此前涨幅。全周来看，10 年国债和 30 年国债均累计下行 0.8bps，分别至 1.84%和 2.25%。而 3 年和 5 年 AAA-二永债分别下行 3.9bps 和 0.4bps 至 2.02%和 2.24%。1 年 AAA 存单累计小幅上行 0.5bps 至 1.66%。 虽然债市情绪依然偏弱，但随着债市调整，我们也需要看到一些变化，可能成 为债市的企稳的支撑力量。从供给端来看，未来一段时期供给压力或将缓和。 从今年状况来看，政府债券供给任务基本已经完成，截止 12 月 12 日，普通 国债净融资 5.04 万亿元，特别国债净融资 1.8 万亿元，新增专项债发行 4.6 万亿元，新增一般债发行 7700 亿元，即使考虑到后续增加的 5000 亿地方债 结存限额使用，全年政府债券发行任务也基本完成。下周政府债券将净偿 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market is recovering after a recent downturn, with significant rebounds in previously underperforming sectors such as chips and communications, which are crucial for the market's future performance [1][7][9] - The domestic macroeconomic situation remains stable without major negative surprises, while overseas markets, particularly the US stock market, have stabilized and are showing signs of recovery, providing support for the domestic equity market [1][7][9] - The report suggests that the A-share market may experience short-term fluctuations within a range due to profit-taking pressures, but the medium to long-term outlook remains positive, supported by a relatively stable international market environment and the potential for strong performance in key sectors [2][10][11] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing a notable decline, attributed to the rebound in the equity market, which has led to a shift in investor preference towards riskier assets, resulting in a lack of upward support for bonds [4][31] - The report recommends a cautious approach to bond investments, suggesting that the bond market may continue to face downward pressure in the short term, with a need for observation in the medium to long term [4][31] Group 3 - The commodity market has shown signs of recovery, particularly with a strong rebound in gold prices, which is expected to provide substantial support for the overall commodity market [5][34] - The report highlights that while gold is currently in a range-bound state, the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing trends away from the US dollar, suggesting a high probability of upward movement for gold prices [5][35][38]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with no significant negative trends observed in the fundamental performance of key sectors, particularly in technology and growth stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 26, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index rose by 0.30%, with notable increases in stocks such as Haiguang Information (3.95%) and Zhongke Shuguang (3.53%) [1] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund also saw a slight increase of 0.17%, marking its third consecutive rise [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The technology growth sector, including communications and semiconductors, continues to show strong performance, suggesting that recent market adjustments may be positioning for future gains [1] - Despite a slowdown in policy support compared to the first half of the year, the overall market remains in a loose monetary environment, which is expected to support recovery in the technology sector [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for investment, suggesting to maintain positions in growth sectors like communications, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals while being cautious with short-term operations [1] - Defensive investments in dividend-paying sectors are advised to mitigate risks during market fluctuations [1] Group 4: Index Composition - The Shanghai 180 Index comprises 180 large-cap stocks selected for their market capitalization and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies in the Shanghai securities market [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 26.29% of the total index, with notable companies including Kweichow Moutai and China Ping An [2]

Group 1 - The A500 index (000510) has shown a slight increase of 0.26% as of November 19, 2025, with notable gainers including Aerospace Development (000547) up 10.01% and Spring Wind Power (603129) up 8.14% [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) has experienced a trading volume of 12.23 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 6.34%, and its average daily trading volume over the past month is 51.22 billion yuan [1] - The A500 ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 24.31 million yuan recently, with a total of 206 million yuan net inflow over the past five trading days, averaging 4.12 million yuan per day [1] Group 2 - Dongguan Securities suggests that profit-taking may lead to short-term volatility in the A-share market, but the long-term upward trend is expected to continue [2] - Debon Securities believes that despite short-term adjustments, the medium to long-term bull market pattern will persist, emphasizing the importance of policy support for economic data [2] - The A500 index includes 500 securities selected from various industries based on market capitalization and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of representative listed companies [2] Group 3 - The A500 ETF fund (512050) has several related funds, including the 华夏中证A500ETF联接 A (022430), C (022431), Y (022979), and the 华夏中证A500指数增强 A (023619), C (023620) [3]

Core Insights - The investment balance of life insurance companies in stocks and securities investment funds reached a record high, with a total of 5.59 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.92% of the total investment balance of insurance companies as of the end of Q3 2023, marking a significant increase since the data was first disclosed in 2022 [3][5][4] Investment Trends - The proportion of investments in stocks and securities investment funds by insurance companies has surpassed the 14% mark for the first time, indicating a strategic shift towards equity investments [4][5] - As of Q3 2023, the total investment balance of insurance companies exceeded 37 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.5% [4][5] Performance Metrics - The investment balance in stocks and securities investment funds increased by over 800 billion yuan in Q3 2023 alone, with life insurance companies holding approximately 5.19 trillion yuan, representing 15.38% of their total investment balance, an increase of 2.04 percentage points from the previous quarter [5][6] - Property insurance companies had an investment balance of 405 billion yuan in stocks and securities investment funds, with a proportion of 16.97%, up by 0.81 percentage points from the previous quarter [5] Market Activity - Insurance companies have engaged in a "buying spree" in equity investments, with a record 31 instances of significant share purchases in 2023, surpassing previous highs [6] - The performance of insurance companies has improved significantly, with many reporting record profits for the first three quarters of 2023, driven by favorable capital market conditions [6] Asset Allocation - The investment balance in bonds remains the largest among various investment types, totaling 18.18 trillion yuan, but the proportion has slightly decreased to 48.52% as of Q3 2023 [7] - Life insurance companies held 17.21 trillion yuan in bonds, with a proportion of 51.02%, while property insurance companies had 969.9 billion yuan, with a proportion of 40.62% [7] Bank Deposits - The proportion of investments in bank deposits by life and property insurance companies continued to decline, standing at 7.37% and 15.67%, respectively, as of Q3 2023 [8]