Summary of the Conference Call on Beef Cattle Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the beef cattle industry in China, discussing supply, demand, pricing trends, and market adjustments from 2023 to 2025 [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Supply Dynamics - In 2023, the domestic beef supply was relatively loose, but a tightening trend is expected starting in 2025 [1]. - By the end of 2024, the number of beef cattle is projected to decrease by 4.4%, with further declines in early 2025, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [1][4]. - The number of breeding cows is expected to decrease by approximately 3% from January to November 2024, with newborn calves decreasing by about 10%, which may impact future beef production [1][5]. Pricing Trends - Beef prices have shown a slight recovery since March 2025, currently at 69.72 yuan/kg, which is 1.7% higher than the same period last year and close to 2019 levels [1][7]. - The average price for the year is expected to be stable or slightly higher compared to last year, driven by seasonal demand in autumn and winter [9][10]. Market Adjustments - The beef cattle industry is undergoing adjustments due to prolonged price declines, leading many farmers to reduce their scale or exit the market [4][20]. - The capacity reduction trend is expected to continue until the end of 2025 and possibly into 2026, with breeding cow numbers potentially dropping to 5%-6% of peak levels [8][25]. Import and Trade Dynamics - China relies on low-priced imported beef, which accounts for about 27% of its beef supply, with the total impact of low-priced imports nearing 30% [3][15]. - The Ministry of Commerce may implement trade relief measures, such as tariffs or quotas, to protect the domestic industry from the impact of low-priced imports [13][19]. Future Outlook - The beef production supply is anticipated to be affected in the coming years due to the long breeding cycle, with a significant reduction in breeding cows and newborn calves [5][12]. - The international beef supply is expected to tighten due to climate impacts in major beef-producing countries like Brazil and Argentina, leading to increased global beef prices [11][10]. Additional Important Insights - The beef cattle industry has experienced significant price cycles, with notable downturns in 1997-2000 and 2015-2016, and a current downturn since 2023 [21]. - The relationship between beef prices and raw milk prices is relatively weak, indicating that fluctuations in one do not directly affect the other [22]. - The Ministry of Commerce's extension of the investigation into import beef protection measures suggests ongoing challenges in the domestic market and a need for protective policies [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the beef cattle industry, highlighting supply trends, pricing dynamics, market adjustments, and future outlooks.