全球牛肉市场正经历一场"高烧"行情。麦当劳高管近日公开表示，牛肉价格正面临极高的通胀压力，给 整个行业带来显著冲击。然而，与国外牛肉市场价格上涨形成反差态势的是，国内终端牛肉价格呈现小 幅回落态势。回落与"高烧"的鲜明反差背后，究竟隐藏着怎样的原因？ 正在菜鲜果美亚运村店挑选牛肉的市民耿女士表示："感觉牛肉最近都是这个价格，跟去年比也没什么 太大变化。" 国内稳价有支撑 国内牛肉价格稳健的背后，是供应充足这一坚实基础。农业农村部发布的《2025年三季度全国畜牧业生 产形势报告》显示，今年三季度，全国肉牛出栏量达1820万头，同比增长2.7%，环比增长3.1%；11月 上旬，内蒙古、山东、河南等主产区的肉牛日均到货量环比增长6%，市场货源充足。国内牛肉产量的 稳步增长，为市场提供了有力保障。 同时，淘汰奶牛转肉用成为重要补充。随着国内乳制品行业结构调整，部分中小型乳企因成本压力淘汰 低产奶牛，这些奶牛经检疫后转入肉类市场流通。据中国畜牧业协会估算，今年以来，淘汰奶牛转肉用 的比例已达15%，每月可为市场增加约8万吨牛肉供给，占国内月度牛肉总产量的7.2%，有效填补了市 场供给缺口。 价格走势大不同 全球牛肉市场 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Beef Cattle Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the beef cattle industry in China, discussing supply, demand, pricing trends, and market adjustments from 2023 to 2025 [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Supply Dynamics - In 2023, the domestic beef supply was relatively loose, but a tightening trend is expected starting in 2025 [1]. - By the end of 2024, the number of beef cattle is projected to decrease by 4.4%, with further declines in early 2025, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [1][4]. - The number of breeding cows is expected to decrease by approximately 3% from January to November 2024, with newborn calves decreasing by about 10%, which may impact future beef production [1][5]. Pricing Trends - Beef prices have shown a slight recovery since March 2025, currently at 69.72 yuan/kg, which is 1.7% higher than the same period last year and close to 2019 levels [1][7]. - The average price for the year is expected to be stable or slightly higher compared to last year, driven by seasonal demand in autumn and winter [9][10]. Market Adjustments - The beef cattle industry is undergoing adjustments due to prolonged price declines, leading many farmers to reduce their scale or exit the market [4][20]. - The capacity reduction trend is expected to continue until the end of 2025 and possibly into 2026, with breeding cow numbers potentially dropping to 5%-6% of peak levels [8][25]. Import and Trade Dynamics - China relies on low-priced imported beef, which accounts for about 27% of its beef supply, with the total impact of low-priced imports nearing 30% [3][15]. - The Ministry of Commerce may implement trade relief measures, such as tariffs or quotas, to protect the domestic industry from the impact of low-priced imports [13][19]. Future Outlook - The beef production supply is anticipated to be affected in the coming years due to the long breeding cycle, with a significant reduction in breeding cows and newborn calves [5][12]. - The international beef supply is expected to tighten due to climate impacts in major beef-producing countries like Brazil and Argentina, leading to increased global beef prices [11][10]. Additional Important Insights - The beef cattle industry has experienced significant price cycles, with notable downturns in 1997-2000 and 2015-2016, and a current downturn since 2023 [21]. - The relationship between beef prices and raw milk prices is relatively weak, indicating that fluctuations in one do not directly affect the other [22]. - The Ministry of Commerce's extension of the investigation into import beef protection measures suggests ongoing challenges in the domestic market and a need for protective policies [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the beef cattle industry, highlighting supply trends, pricing dynamics, market adjustments, and future outlooks.

Summary of Beef Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the beef industry in China, particularly the trends in beef imports and domestic supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Beef Import Trends**: In the first half of 2025, China's beef imports decreased by 145,000 tons to 1.09 million tons, while the average import price rose to $5,000-$5,300 per ton, an increase of approximately $300 compared to the same period last year [1][3]. 2. **Domestic Price Dynamics**: Domestic beef prices are influenced by the supply-demand balance, with domestic beef averaging around 60 RMB/kg, significantly higher than imported beef priced at 40-50 RMB/kg [1][9]. 3. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs**: If the U.S. imposes a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef, it could lead to an influx of Brazilian beef into the Chinese market, potentially increasing import volumes but decreasing prices [1][7]. 4. **Market Supply and Demand**: The domestic beef market is primarily composed of chilled and grain-fed products, with a production gap of 2-3 million tons that relies on imports [1][9]. 5. **Future Price Expectations**: The domestic beef price is expected to continue rising due to reduced supply from both South America and domestic sources, with predictions of price increases lasting until 2026 [1][15][16]. 6. **Consumer Behavior**: The demand for beef is currently weak, influenced by poor performance in the fast-moving consumer goods and restaurant sectors, which directly affects beef consumption [1][12]. 7. **Global Price Trends**: Since 2022, global beef prices have been recovering, currently averaging around $5,000-$5,500 per ton, driven by reduced cattle stocks in Brazil and drought conditions [1][13][14]. 8. **Domestic Industry Challenges**: The domestic beef industry has faced significant losses, particularly among independent farmers, due to high costs and low market prices, leading to a reduction in cattle farming [1][11][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Regulatory Changes**: The potential implementation of new import quota policies in August 2025 could impact market prices and import volumes, although the actual effects remain uncertain [1][8]. - **Market Segmentation**: There is a clear distinction between domestic and imported beef markets, with domestic beef primarily serving supermarkets and imported beef being used mainly in restaurants and food processing [1][9][19]. - **Price Volatility**: Despite rising prices, the overall transaction volume in the domestic market is declining, indicating a potential shift in consumer preferences towards other protein sources like chicken and pork [1][18][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the beef industry, highlighting the interplay between domestic production, import dynamics, and market pricing trends.