根据目前的数据和分析,2025年的进口量对成本产生了显著影响。具体来说, 巴西的牛肉成本预计增加 11%左右,而澳洲的牛肉成本则接近 30%的增幅。如果 综合考虑阿根廷和乌拉圭的进口量,草饲牛肉的成本也将增长 7%至 8%。因此, 到 2026 年,整体进口均价将保持在较高水平。巴西调整牛群出栏节奏以适应上 半年订单需求,加上美国市场对牛肉的持续需求,上半年价格竞争激烈。到2027 年,由于关税和国内缺口加剧,价格将继续得到支撑。 争为 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 肉牛:进口牛肉保障措施落地,影响几何?20260104 摘要 人 - 人 - 上海 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - 一 - - 节等旺季备货,部分企业为回笼资金加快出毁。 Q&A 未来一两年进口肉的价格走势如何?预计整体涨幅会有多大? 目前草饲产品中低端部分仍显示出国内价格较高,但冻淘汰母牛肉与国外草饲产 品竞争时价差并不大。例如,冻淘汰母牛肉每公斤约 66元,与食品加工企业使 用的后部位 ...

Core Insights - The global beef market is experiencing significant inflationary pressures, with McDonald's executives highlighting unprecedented price increases affecting the fast-food industry [1][3] - In contrast, domestic beef prices in China have shown a slight decline, indicating a stable market environment despite global trends [1][3] Price Trends - Global beef prices are on the rise, with major producing countries like the US, Australia, and Brazil facing supply constraints due to extreme weather and export restrictions [3] - As of November 6, the average wholesale price of beef in China was 66.31 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous day and a cumulative decline of 4.8% from October's peak [3][4] - Retail prices for beef in China have remained stable, with certain cuts maintaining their prices compared to earlier in the year [3][4] Domestic Price Stability - The stability of domestic beef prices is supported by sufficient supply, with a reported increase in beef cattle slaughter numbers and daily arrivals in major producing regions [4][5] - The transition of culled dairy cows to beef production has contributed to market supply, with an estimated 15% of culled dairy cows entering the beef market this year [4][5] Market Dynamics - The Chinese beef market is characterized by a short-term supply surplus, with demand not keeping pace with supply growth due to dietary preferences and competition from other meats [5][6] - Profitability issues in the beef supply chain are evident, with rising live cattle prices for farmers but losses for slaughterhouses due to slow sales [5][6] Future Market Outlook - Experts predict that beef prices in China will remain stable in the short term, with potential moderate increases in the medium to long term due to rising consumer demand [7][8] - The decline in the number of breeding cows may lead to future supply shortages, impacting prices in the coming years [7][8] - The expected annual growth rate for domestic beef consumption is around 8%, while import quotas are unlikely to exceed a 6% increase, indicating a potential supply gap [8]

Summary of the Conference Call on Beef Cattle Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the beef cattle industry in China, discussing supply, demand, pricing trends, and market adjustments from 2023 to 2025 [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Supply Dynamics - In 2023, the domestic beef supply was relatively loose, but a tightening trend is expected starting in 2025 [1]. - By the end of 2024, the number of beef cattle is projected to decrease by 4.4%, with further declines in early 2025, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [1][4]. - The number of breeding cows is expected to decrease by approximately 3% from January to November 2024, with newborn calves decreasing by about 10%, which may impact future beef production [1][5]. Pricing Trends - Beef prices have shown a slight recovery since March 2025, currently at 69.72 yuan/kg, which is 1.7% higher than the same period last year and close to 2019 levels [1][7]. - The average price for the year is expected to be stable or slightly higher compared to last year, driven by seasonal demand in autumn and winter [9][10]. Market Adjustments - The beef cattle industry is undergoing adjustments due to prolonged price declines, leading many farmers to reduce their scale or exit the market [4][20]. - The capacity reduction trend is expected to continue until the end of 2025 and possibly into 2026, with breeding cow numbers potentially dropping to 5%-6% of peak levels [8][25]. Import and Trade Dynamics - China relies on low-priced imported beef, which accounts for about 27% of its beef supply, with the total impact of low-priced imports nearing 30% [3][15]. - The Ministry of Commerce may implement trade relief measures, such as tariffs or quotas, to protect the domestic industry from the impact of low-priced imports [13][19]. Future Outlook - The beef production supply is anticipated to be affected in the coming years due to the long breeding cycle, with a significant reduction in breeding cows and newborn calves [5][12]. - The international beef supply is expected to tighten due to climate impacts in major beef-producing countries like Brazil and Argentina, leading to increased global beef prices [11][10]. Additional Important Insights - The beef cattle industry has experienced significant price cycles, with notable downturns in 1997-2000 and 2015-2016, and a current downturn since 2023 [21]. - The relationship between beef prices and raw milk prices is relatively weak, indicating that fluctuations in one do not directly affect the other [22]. - The Ministry of Commerce's extension of the investigation into import beef protection measures suggests ongoing challenges in the domestic market and a need for protective policies [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the beef cattle industry, highlighting supply trends, pricing dynamics, market adjustments, and future outlooks.

Summary of Beef Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the beef industry in China, particularly the trends in beef imports and domestic supply and demand dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Beef Import Trends**: In the first half of 2025, China's beef imports decreased by 145,000 tons to 1.09 million tons, while the average import price rose to $5,000-$5,300 per ton, an increase of approximately $300 compared to the same period last year [1][3]. 2. **Domestic Price Dynamics**: Domestic beef prices are influenced by the supply-demand balance, with domestic beef averaging around 60 RMB/kg, significantly higher than imported beef priced at 40-50 RMB/kg [1][9]. 3. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs**: If the U.S. imposes a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef, it could lead to an influx of Brazilian beef into the Chinese market, potentially increasing import volumes but decreasing prices [1][7]. 4. **Market Supply and Demand**: The domestic beef market is primarily composed of chilled and grain-fed products, with a production gap of 2-3 million tons that relies on imports [1][9]. 5. **Future Price Expectations**: The domestic beef price is expected to continue rising due to reduced supply from both South America and domestic sources, with predictions of price increases lasting until 2026 [1][15][16]. 6. **Consumer Behavior**: The demand for beef is currently weak, influenced by poor performance in the fast-moving consumer goods and restaurant sectors, which directly affects beef consumption [1][12]. 7. **Global Price Trends**: Since 2022, global beef prices have been recovering, currently averaging around $5,000-$5,500 per ton, driven by reduced cattle stocks in Brazil and drought conditions [1][13][14]. 8. **Domestic Industry Challenges**: The domestic beef industry has faced significant losses, particularly among independent farmers, due to high costs and low market prices, leading to a reduction in cattle farming [1][11][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Regulatory Changes**: The potential implementation of new import quota policies in August 2025 could impact market prices and import volumes, although the actual effects remain uncertain [1][8]. - **Market Segmentation**: There is a clear distinction between domestic and imported beef markets, with domestic beef primarily serving supermarkets and imported beef being used mainly in restaurants and food processing [1][9][19]. - **Price Volatility**: Despite rising prices, the overall transaction volume in the domestic market is declining, indicating a potential shift in consumer preferences towards other protein sources like chicken and pork [1][18][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the beef industry, highlighting the interplay between domestic production, import dynamics, and market pricing trends.