摘要 国内原奶市场面临挑战，市场占比萎缩至 15%，70%牧场亏损，饲料 成本高企（占现金成本 60%-70%），2025 年青贮玉米价格上涨加剧 养殖户压力，预计 2026 年饲料价格保持平稳略增。 乳制品需求端边际改善，2025 年前三季度产量同比波动，国家出台促 消费政策有望提振信心。长期来看，中国乳制品消费潜力巨大，深加工 产能扩张将增加生鲜乳需求。 预计 2026 年原奶行业供需紧平衡，或迎拐点。进口大包粉影响有限， 价格高于国内生鲜乳，且全球主要出口国牛奶产量预计稳定，进口量不 会显著提升。 活牛和冻精进口量减少，国内上游出清和国际供应压力减轻，预示未来 供应趋紧。肉牛市场自 2025 年触底反弹，牛肉和肉牛价格分别上涨 11%和 10%。 肉牛养殖周期长，产能传导滞后，本轮肉牛上行周期明确，供需错配加 剧和上游出清将推动肉价上涨，前期亏损推动上游深度去化，为后续市 场提供支撑。 Q&A 2026 年原奶价格的趋势展望如何？ 2026 年原奶价格有望迎来拐点。首先，从供给端来看，国内上游的出清已经 持续多年，奶价自下跌以来已累计下降超过 30%，导致大量养殖场户亏损严重， 尤其是社会化牧场，其经营 ...

初春时节，户外依旧寒意袭人，锡林郭勒盟多伦县大北沟镇九号村的现代农业产业园区内却暖意涌动。 走进蔬菜大棚，只见土地平整，静待插秧；不远处的肉牛养殖区里，棚圈洁净规范，牛群膘肥体 壮。"我们有了党建搭台、新模式撑腰，村里的肉牛养殖和设施蔬菜产业越做越红火，村民的"腰包"也 越来越鼓了！"九号村党支部书记亢福生站在大棚旁，望着蓬勃发展的产业园区，脸上满是憧憬。 亢福生的底气，源于多伦县创新推行的"123（一体、两核、三创）"党建引领模式。2025年以来，该县 坚持以高质量党建引领乡村振兴，以"一体推进、两核驱动、三创争先"为实践路径，把党的政治优势、 组织优势转化为产业发展优势和乡村治理效能，为壮大村集体经济、促进农民增收致富注入了强劲动 能。 坚持"一体"聚合力，有效破解发展碎片化难题。九号村曾是典型的集体经济薄弱村，转机源于"县级统 筹、乡镇谋划、村抓落地"的一体推进机制。多伦县成立村集体经济发展领导小组，立足县域资源禀 赋，统筹整合各类政策、资金、人才资源，为乡村产业发展量身定制思路举措。大北沟镇党委主动靠前 指导，九号村党支部充分发挥战斗堡垒作用，牵头推行EPCO（设计——采购——施工——运营）一体 化经 ...

通辽市科尔沁左翼后旗是内蒙古肉牛养殖大旗，2025年牛存栏达96.66万头。新春时节，记者走进科左 后旗，听听养牛户和肉牛养殖企业的新年期盼。 家住孟根达坝牧场的马宇飞已有20多年养牛经验，最多时家里有育肥牛超百头。2020年以来，她和丈夫 建起标准化养殖场，却遭遇肉牛市场低迷。 2025年底，情况有了变化。科左后旗农牧局畜牧股负责人乌日汉介绍，随着肉牛市场供需关系改善，牛 价逐步回升，通辽育肥牛成交价较年内低点反弹12%，犊牛价格持续走高。 一大早，马宇飞急匆匆走进养殖场，照看年前新买来的几十头"对儿牛"。马宇飞说，"现在牛价明显回 升，牛犊价格也是一路涨，相信今年肯定会好起来。" 马宇飞在牛市上选牛。新华社发 马宇飞口中的"对儿牛"，是指一头母牛带一头牛犊。她打算年后继续养3个月再出售，"短期育肥，起码 保本。"为了适应市场变化，马宇飞改变策略，尝试小批量短期育肥以积累资金，然后扩大规模。春节 前，她走遍伊胡塔牛市、沃金牛市、成峰牛市等通辽市大大小小的牛市，收购了30组"对儿牛"。 "牛价在波动中上涨，很难每一步都走在节骨眼上。懂牛、看牛、养牛、卖牛，要样样精通才行。"马宇 飞说，"今年过了个好年，一看到 ...

Group 1: Mushroom Industry in Hebei - The mushroom industry in Hebei's Handan city has seen significant improvements, with a new model of "company + base + farmers" being implemented, leading to better production and pricing for farmers [1][2] - Farmers like Yin Yonghui have reported increased incomes, with some earning around 200,000 yuan annually from their mushroom production [3] - The establishment of the Fengshuo Edible Fungus Planting Company has centralized production, technology, and sales, enhancing efficiency and profitability for local mushroom farmers [1][3] Group 2: Economic Development in Shanxi - The village of Gongyang in Shanxi has transformed from a poverty-stricken area to a thriving community through the development of three key industries: wood ear mushrooms, tourism, and beef cattle [4][5] - The wood ear mushroom industry has been supported by favorable policies, including low-interest loans and subsidies for production costs, leading to increased farmer participation and investment [5][6] - The tourism sector has flourished, with local attractions drawing over 80,000 visitors annually, significantly boosting local incomes [7] Group 3: Agricultural Innovations in Liaoning - The agricultural landscape in Zhangwu County, Liaoning, has shifted from traditional crops to high-value products like millet and rice, with significant increases in yield due to improved farming techniques [9] - The county has achieved a historical high in grain production, reaching 2.475 billion jin, thanks to advancements in agricultural practices and technology [9] Group 4: Community Initiatives in Guangdong - The "Integrity Vegetable Stall" in Guangdong has maintained a 23-year record of zero disputes and theft, showcasing a successful model of community trust and ethical business practices [10][11] - The village has implemented various cultural and sports initiatives, contributing to both social cohesion and economic development, with collective income projected to reach 2.8 million yuan in 2024 [11] Group 5: Winter Melon Farming in Hainan - The Daan Village in Hainan has become known for its black-skinned winter melons, with a significant portion of the community engaged in this lucrative crop, leading to substantial profits for farmers [12][14] - The village has adapted to challenges such as climate change and soil acidity by collaborating with agricultural experts to improve crop yields and sustainability [14] Group 6: Tourism Development in Xinjiang - The village of Saluweng in Xinjiang has begun to develop its tourism sector by leveraging its unique border protection stories, attracting over 30,000 visitors and generating 300,000 yuan in tourism revenue [15][16] - Community cleanliness initiatives have improved the village's appeal to tourists, contributing to a positive cycle of increased visitation and local economic growth [16][17]

Group 1: Mushroom Industry in Hebei - The mushroom industry in Hebei's Handan City has seen significant improvements due to the "company + base + farmer" model, which unifies seed supply, technology, standards, and purchasing [1][2] - Farmers like Yin Yonghui have reported increased incomes, with some earning around 200,000 yuan annually from their mushroom production [3] - The establishment of a new production line in 2026 is expected to double the daily processing capacity, further enhancing profitability for local farmers [3] Group 2: Wood Ear Mushroom and Tourism in Shanxi - The village of Gongyang has successfully developed a wood ear mushroom industry, with farmers like Liang Xiaoping investing significantly and benefiting from government subsidies [5][6] - The tourism sector has also flourished, with local businesses like agritourism generating substantial daily incomes during peak seasons [7] - The combination of mushroom farming and tourism has contributed to an increase in average annual income for villagers, exceeding 20,000 yuan [8] Group 3: Agricultural Development in Liaoning - The agricultural landscape in Zhangwu County has transformed, with a focus on high-yield crops like millet and rice, leading to record grain production [9] - The implementation of advanced agricultural techniques has resulted in increased crop yields, with some farmers reporting over 2,000 jin per mu [9] - The county's efforts in soil improvement and sustainable farming practices have significantly enhanced the quality of agricultural output [9] Group 4: Integrity in Local Markets - The "integrity vegetable stall" in Guangdong has maintained a 23-year record of zero disputes and theft, showcasing a model of trust in local commerce [10][11] - The village has actively promoted moral values and community engagement, leading to a thriving local economy and increased collective income [11] Group 5: Winter Melon Cultivation in Hainan - The black-skinned winter melon has become a key crop in Daan Village, with farmers expecting substantial profits from their cultivation [12][14] - The village has transitioned from traditional crops to winter melon, with over 90% of households participating in its cultivation [14] - Collaboration with agricultural research institutions has improved soil quality and crop resilience, ensuring sustainable growth for the future [14] Group 6: Tourism Development in Xinjiang - The village of Saluwulang has begun to develop its tourism sector, leveraging its unique border protection stories to attract visitors [15][16] - The village expects to receive over 30,000 tourists annually by 2025, generating significant income for local residents [15] - Community initiatives to maintain cleanliness and enhance the visitor experience have contributed to the village's growing reputation as a tourist destination [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the beef market is entering a new upward cycle driven by policies, capacity adjustments, and demand recovery, particularly as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a seasonal price increase [1][2] - The average price of beef in China's wholesale markets was reported at 66.13 yuan per kilogram on February 10, showing a slight increase from 65.94 yuan per kilogram on January 4 and 65.95 yuan per kilogram on February 2, reflecting a stable upward trend [1] - Analysts suggest that the beef industry is transitioning from a long-term downward trend, with the market expected to face a "high rebound, weak seasonality, and a weak market finish" in 2025 due to the interplay between ample supply and weak demand [1][2] Group 2 - The implementation of new import policies starting January 1, 2026, which will impose additional tariffs of 55% on beef imports beyond a specified quota, is expected to reduce import volumes and increase costs, thereby alleviating domestic supply pressure and supporting domestic beef prices [1][2] - Analysts from Guoxin Securities predict that the tightening of import policies will lead to a decrease in beef imports and an increase in domestic beef prices, creating a favorable environment for domestic beef producers [2] - The collaboration between Shandong Delisi Food Co., Ltd. and the internet platform Feixiong Lingxian represents a strategic move towards resource integration and upgrading within the industry, aiming to enhance the quality and cost-effectiveness of beef sourcing [3] Group 3 - The Chinese beef industry is at a critical juncture as it transitions between old and new cycles, with domestic production capacity expected to shrink and tightening import policies reducing the supply of low-cost beef [4] - As the macroeconomic environment stabilizes and restaurant consumption gradually recovers, demand for beef is anticipated to strengthen, benefiting various segments of the industry, including breeding, slaughtering, processing, and branding [4] - The optimization of industry structure and price recovery is likely to create new development opportunities for the beef sector [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Dairy Industry and Beef Cattle Price Trends Industry Overview - **Dairy Industry Supply and Demand Trends**: In 2024, coconut milk and milk powder are expected to decline year-on-year, while deep-processed dairy products like cream and cheese will continue to grow, with growth rates anticipated to outpace liquid milk and milk powder in the coming years. The average per capita dairy consumption in China is projected to be just over 40 kg, indicating significant room for improvement compared to developed economies and recommended consumption levels in China [1][1]. - **Low-Temperature and Room-Temperature Milk Consumption Trends**: The consumption scale of low-temperature milk in first-tier cities is approximately 36.6 billion yuan, with second-tier cities at a combined 24.6 billion yuan, and below third-tier cities around 30 billion yuan. The market for low-temperature milk in lower-tier cities is expected to be a core area for rapid expansion over the next five years [1][1]. Market Dynamics - **2024 Consumption Scale**: The consumption scale for room-temperature liquid milk is projected to be 265.3 billion yuan, while low-temperature liquid milk is expected to reach 89.7 billion yuan. Low-temperature milk is anticipated to continue its rapid growth, while room-temperature milk faces a contraction. By 2025, low-temperature milk is expected to achieve double-digit growth, with a penetration rate of 25% in 2024, projected to rise to over 30% by 2029 [2][2]. - **Milk Price Trends and Profitability**: The cumulative decline in milk prices is expected to be 1.1% in 2025, a slight improvement from a 1.9% decline in 2024. Despite demand pressures, dairy companies are expected to see a stabilization in raw milk prices, which have remained between 3.03-3.05 yuan/kg, with a recent increase noted. The improvement in profitability for dairy and beef cattle industries is anticipated to be more pronounced in 2026, with significant cost reductions expected for leading companies [2][2][3]. Competitive Landscape - **Market Share Recovery for Leading Dairy Companies**: Smaller dairy companies that previously gained competitive advantages through low-priced raw milk are expected to struggle as they lose this cost edge. Leading companies like Yili and Mengniu are projected to recover market share in 2026, with optimistic revenue targets set for 2025 [3][3]. - **Yili's Strategic Goals**: Yili aims for a mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2026, focusing on upgrading flavors in its room-temperature products and expanding its deep-processing business, which targets a scale of 10 billion yuan over five years [3][4]. - **Mengniu's Operational Improvements**: Mengniu, facing more significant internal adjustments, is expected to see a notable improvement in its operational status in 2026, with revenue growth anticipated in early months of the year [3][4]. Beef Cattle Industry Analysis - **Beef Cattle Price Trends**: The beef cattle industry is at a cyclical turning point, with prices expected to rise significantly. The industry has been in a loss cycle since 2023, projected to last until mid-2025, with a recovery in profitability expected in the latter half of 2025. As of early February 2026, prices for various cattle types have shown significant year-on-year increases [5][5]. - **Dairy Cow Inventory and Price Outlook**: The dairy cow inventory reduction is nearing its end, with a cumulative decrease of 8.8% expected by the end of 2025. Current milk prices have dropped below previous cycle lows, but there is an expectation for significant price increases in the latter half of 2026 [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - **Focus on Leading Dairy Companies**: Investors are advised to pay close attention to leading dairy companies such as Yili and Mengniu, as the dairy sector is expected to improve, particularly in the context of rising beef cattle prices and stabilizing milk prices [6][6].

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia's agricultural sector achieved significant milestones in 2025, with grain production reaching 840.7 billion jin, ranking fifth nationally, and leading in beef, mutton, milk, and other livestock products [1][3] Group 1: Agricultural Production Achievements - Grain planting area remained stable at over 10 million acres, marking the 22nd consecutive year of increased production [1] - Inner Mongolia is recognized as a crucial production base for grain and livestock, contributing significantly to national food security [1][3] - The region's beef production reached 1.017 million tons in 2025, maintaining its position as the top producer in the country [6] Group 2: Policy Recommendations and Industry Development - Local representatives proposed increasing support for foundational beef cattle breeding to enhance quality and quantity, suggesting broader coverage of subsidy policies [2] - A focus on developing a diversified forage supply system was emphasized to improve production efficiency and reduce costs [2] - Recommendations included establishing a tiered branding system for agricultural products to enhance market value and support farmers [6] Group 3: Technological Advancements and Innovations - Emphasis on leveraging technology for agricultural transformation, particularly in the dairy sector, where Inner Mongolia accounts for about 20% of national milk production [4][5] - Initiatives to enhance soybean production through technological innovation and support for breeding projects were highlighted [5] - The establishment of a "pyramid" breeding system for livestock was suggested to strengthen high-end breeds and optimize local breed structures [7]

寒冬腊月，科尔沁草原银装素裹。作为全国肉牛产业重要基地的内蒙古自治区通辽市，迎来了一年中最 繁忙时节。 走进通辽市某肉制品加工企业的生产车间，机器轰鸣、人影忙碌，新鲜牛肉在自动化生产线上被迅速分 割、包装，一箱箱贴有"通辽牛肉"标识的产品即将被发往全国各地。"每年春节前都是肉牛屠宰加工旺 季，今年市场需求更旺，订单量比平时多了两成。我想着扩大屠宰规模，保障春节市场供应，但又担心 资金周转不过来。没想到内蒙古农商银行这么快就发放了贷款，真是雪中送炭，现在备货生产心里特有 底。"企业负责人说。 据了解，中国人民银行通辽市分行在走访调研中得知企业扩产遇到资金难题后，立刻联动内蒙古农商银 行通辽中心支行与企业对接，开通金融服务绿色通道，简化审批流程，快速为其发放200万元贷款，助 力企业储备优质肉牛。资金到位后，企业不仅提升了生产效率，还与周边几十户养殖户签订了肉牛收购 协议，既保障了春节市场牛肉供应，又带动了当地养殖户增收。 李大爷的喜悦并非孤例。为让当地农牧民共享产业发展红利，中国人民银行通辽市分行以"农畜贷"为核 心抓手，引导金融机构深化普惠金融服务，通过物联网监管、活畜确权等技术拓宽涉农贷款投放渠道， 破解养 ...

走进通辽市某肉制品加工企业的生产车间，机器轰鸣、人影忙碌，新鲜牛肉在自动化生产线上被迅 速分割、包装，一箱箱贴有"通辽牛肉"标识的产品即将被发往全国各地。"每年春节前都是肉牛屠宰加 工旺季，今年市场需求更旺，订单量比平时多了两成。我想着扩大屠宰规模，保障春节市场供应，但又 担心资金周转不过来。没想到内蒙古农商银行这么快就发放了贷款，真是雪中送炭，现在备货生产心里 特有底。"企业负责人说。 寒冬腊月，科尔沁草原银装素裹。作为全国肉牛产业重要基地的内蒙古自治区通辽市，迎来了一年 中最繁忙时节。 据了解，中国人民银行通辽市分行在走访调研中得知企业扩产遇到资金难题后，立刻联动内蒙古农 商银行通辽中心支行与企业对接，开通金融服务绿色通道，简化审批流程，快速为其发放200万元贷 款，助力企业储备优质肉牛。资金到位后，企业不仅提升了生产效率，还与周边几十户养殖户签订了肉 牛收购协议，既保障了春节市场牛肉供应，又带动了当地养殖户增收。 产业兴旺的红利也落到了链条前端的养殖户。在科尔沁区大林镇，养殖户李大爷数着刚拿到手的售 牛款笑容满面："今年与企业签了订单，收购价好，回款快。以前想扩栏时总为钱发愁，现在用活牛就 能抵押贷款， ...