Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2512 contract dropping 0.07% and an increase in open interest. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and key - term Treasury bond yields also varied. Overseas, US, German, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yields all increased. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the domestic central bank has more policy space, and Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized recently amidst the high - level volatility of equities [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of all Treasury bond futures contracts decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.03% to - 0.22%. Open interest for some contracts increased, such as TF2512, T2512, etc., while others decreased. Trading volumes varied across contracts [2]. - **Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts all decreased compared to the previous day [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day and DR007 rates increased by 0.9bp and 1.2bp respectively, while GC007 decreased by 5.3bp [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term Treasury bond yields showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 1.52bp to 1.85%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 35.58bp [2]. - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: US 10Y, German 10Y, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yields increased by 5bp, 1bp, and 0.4bp respectively [2]. Macro News - **Monetary Policy**: On September 18, the central bank conducted 487 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 195 billion yuan after 292 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3]. - **Trade News**: Regarding the TikTok issue, China maintains a consistent stance. China hopes the EU will not weaponize tariffs and will eliminate market barriers. China initiated an anti - dumping investigation on relevant EU pork products at the request of domestic industries [3]. - **Bond Issuance**: The second batch of 14科创债 ETFs raised a total of 40.786 billion yuan, and after their listing in late September, the bond ETF's scale will exceed 600 billion yuan. The issuance scale of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds in 2025 has reached 1.148 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 88.3% [3]. - **Business Ranking**: The "2025 China Service Industry Enterprises 500" list was released. The total operating income of the listed enterprises in 2024 reached 51.1 trillion yuan, and the average operating income exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time [3]. - **Employment Data**: US initial jobless claims fell to 231,000 last week, the largest drop in nearly four years, but continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, indicating some pressure in the labor market [3]. Industry Information and Strategy - **Interest Rate Trends**: On September 18, money market interest rates mostly increased. US Treasury bond yields generally rose, while the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond in China decreased to 1.77%. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, US Treasury bond yields rebounded [3]. - **Market Environment**: Shibor short - term varieties increased due to tax - period disturbances, and the money market tightened. Savings continued to flow to non - bank sectors in August, M1 growth reached a new high since January 2023, but consumption, production, real - estate investment, and sales showed weak trends [3]. - **Policy Outlook**: With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the domestic central bank has more policy space, and Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized during the high - level volatility of equities [3].

记者丨张旭 编辑丨钟映佳 9月18日，商务部召开例行新闻发布会。商务部新闻发言人何亚东回应了关于Tiktok在美运 营、欧盟对中国电动汽车征收反补贴税等议题。 近日，美国总统特朗普称中美双方已达成一项协议，允许TikTok继续在美国运营。何亚东表 示，当地时间9月14日至15日，中美经贸团队在西班牙马德里举行会谈。双方以两国元首通话 重要共识为引领，就以合作方式妥善解决TikTok相关问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作 等达成了基本框架共识。 何亚东还对欧盟对中国电动汽车征收反补贴税一事进行了回应。他表示， 中方希望欧方不将 关税武器化， 消除市场壁垒，鼓励公平竞争， 顺应产业合作大势，共同为产业发展创造公 平、非歧视、可预期的市场环境，为应对全球气候变化、实现绿色转型作出积极贡献。 何亚东表示，欧方不能一手高举气变大旗，一手又挥舞保护主义大棒。保护主义没有出路。欧 方仅因为中国电动车高性价比，就毫无根据地给中国车企贴上"补贴"标签，并以莫须有的"损 害威胁"名头滥用反补贴措施，实质是设置市场壁垒，干预自由竞争。实践证明，保护主义挡 不住市场的强大力量，更拦不住欧盟消费者的理性选择。 商务部新闻发言人何亚东 ...

Group 1: Trade and Economic Measures - The 138th Canton Fair will implement more extensive support measures for foreign trade enterprises, including a significant reduction in booth fees for all participating companies, with over 5,000 companies benefiting for the first time [3] - The fair will feature over 31,000 participating companies, marking a new high in attendance [3] - The measures include a 50% reduction in booth fees for offline exhibitions and additional discounts for online platforms, aimed at helping export companies expand into international markets [3] Group 2: International Trade Relations - China is responding to the EU's anti-dumping investigation into pork products, emphasizing that the investigation was initiated based on domestic industry applications and conducted in accordance with Chinese laws and WTO rules [5] - In contrast, the EU has initiated seven anti-dumping investigations against China this year, accounting for nearly 40% of its total investigations, affecting approximately $3.5 billion in Chinese exports [5] - China has maintained a cautious approach to trade remedy measures, having only made decisions in three cases this year, while the EU has 95 ongoing trade remedy measures against China, impacting around $39.3 billion in exports [5] Group 3: Sustainability and Global Governance - The WTO's Fisheries Subsidies Agreement, which came into effect on September 15, is a significant milestone for global fisheries governance and multilateral trade, aimed at promoting sustainable development [14] - The agreement establishes binding multilateral disciplines on subsidies, requiring members to enhance transparency in fisheries management and improve sustainable resource assessment capabilities [14] - China, as a major global fishing nation, has committed to fulfilling its obligations under the agreement and actively participating in global fisheries governance [15] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Industry - China welcomes the EU's announcement of a €20,000 ID.1 electric vehicle, aligning with market demands for diverse, advanced, and affordable products [11] - The Chinese electric vehicle industry is recognized for driving innovation and competitiveness, contributing to global efforts in addressing climate change [11] - China advocates for fair competition and opposes protectionist measures that hinder market access, emphasizing the importance of collaboration in the electric vehicle sector [12]

Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce held a press conference on September 18 to discuss key recent developments in the business sector and respond to media inquiries [1] - The anti-dumping investigation into EU pork products was initiated based on applications from the Chinese domestic industry, with the investigation conducted in accordance with Chinese laws and WTO rules [1] - China has maintained a cautious approach to trade remedy measures, having not initiated any original investigations against the EU this year, contrasting with the EU's seven investigations against China, which account for nearly 40% of its total external investigations [1] Group 2 - In the electric vehicle anti-subsidy case, the EU initiated an investigation without any domestic industry application, which China deems unreasonable and a misuse of trade remedy measures, leading to a dispute resolution mechanism appeal [2] - Despite these challenges, China has engaged in over 20 rounds of consultations with the EU to seek mutually acceptable solutions, demonstrating a commitment to dialogue and cooperation [2] - China emphasizes the importance of dialogue and cooperation for industry and public sentiment, expressing readiness to work with the EU to create an open and stable market environment [2]

对话与合作是产业所求、民心所盼。中方开放合作的立场不会变，对话磋商的原则不会变，并已为此做 好准备。期待欧委会切实落实中欧领导人会晤共识，正视产业呼声，与中方相向而行，通过对话磋商解 决双方关注，为中欧产业发展营造开放、稳定的市场环境。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 中方始终审慎、克制使用贸易救济措施。今年以来，中方未对欧盟发起任何原审调查，仅在3起案件中 作出裁决。与此形成鲜明对比的是，今年欧盟对中国已发起7起原审调查，占其对外调查总量的近 40%，涉及约35亿美元中国出口，并对28起案件作出初裁或终裁。目前，欧方正在执行中的对华贸易救 济措施95项，涉及约393亿美元中国出口。 特别是电动汽车反补贴案中，欧盟在没有任何盟内产业申请的情况下自主发起调查，调查过程和结论不 合理、不合规，并以所谓"损害威胁"推测而滥用贸易救济措施。对此，中方已诉诸世贸争端解决机制。 尽管如此，为落实中欧领导人会晤共识，中方始终秉持最大诚意，与欧方开展了20多轮磋商，全力寻求 双方均能接受的解决方案。 9月18日，商务部举行例行新闻发布会。有记者提问，近日西班牙媒体报道，欧洲猪肉产业最终可能要 为汽车产业引发的问题"买单"，多家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce emphasizes a cautious and restrained approach to trade remedy measures, contrasting with the EU's aggressive stance against Chinese exports, particularly in the pork and electric vehicle sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Investigations - The anti-dumping investigation into EU pork products was initiated based on applications from the domestic industry in China, with the investigation conducted fairly and in accordance with WTO rules [1]. - In 2023, the EU has initiated 7 original investigations against China, accounting for nearly 40% of its total external investigations, involving approximately $3.5 billion in Chinese exports [2]. Group 2: Trade Remedies and Responses - Currently, there are 95 ongoing trade remedy measures by the EU against China, affecting around $39.3 billion in Chinese exports [2]. - The EU's investigation into electric vehicle subsidies was initiated without any domestic industry application, which China views as an unreasonable and non-compliant use of trade remedy measures [2]. Group 3: Dialogue and Cooperation - China has engaged in over 20 rounds of consultations with the EU, aiming for mutually acceptable solutions and maintaining an open and cooperative stance [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce expresses hope that the EU will recognize industry concerns and work towards creating an open and stable market environment through dialogue [2].

Group 1: Canton Fair Initiatives - The 138th Canton Fair will implement stronger support measures for foreign trade enterprises, continuing the efforts from the 137th Fair which halved booth fees for exhibitors [1] - Over 31,000 companies will participate in the 138th Fair, with all exhibitors eligible for booth fee reductions, benefiting over 5,000 companies for the first time [1] - In addition to a 50% reduction in offline booth fees, new online platform measures will be introduced to assist export companies in expanding international markets [1] Group 2: EU-China Trade Relations - China is responding to the EU's anti-dumping investigation into pork products, initiated at the request of domestic industries, ensuring a fair and objective process [3] - In contrast, the EU has initiated seven anti-dumping investigations against China this year, affecting approximately $3.5 billion in Chinese exports [3] - China emphasizes the importance of dialogue and cooperation in trade relations, advocating for a stable market environment and fair competition [4][8] Group 3: Integrity Promotion Activities - The Ministry of Commerce and 12 other departments are organizing the "Integrity Business Promotion Month," with the theme "Honesty and Trustworthiness Benefits Enterprises and the Public" [6] - This year marks the 21st consecutive year of the campaign, featuring 14 themed activities aimed at promoting integrity and creating a trustworthy business environment [6] Group 4: WTO Fisheries Subsidies Agreement - The WTO Fisheries Subsidies Agreement, effective from September 15, aims to promote sustainable global fisheries management and was a significant achievement for multilateral trade [9][10] - China has ratified the agreement and is committed to fulfilling its obligations, contributing to the sustainable development of global marine resources [10]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated anti-circumvention measures against imported optical fiber products originating from the United States, marking the first anti-circumvention investigation in China [1][3] - The investigation was launched on March 4, 2025, following a request from domestic companies, focusing on single-mode optical fibers with specific cutoff wavelength displacement [1][3] - Evidence indicated that U.S. exporters were circumventing China's anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive single-mode optical fibers by exporting related products [1][3] Group 2 - The anti-circumvention investigation aligns with Chinese laws and WTO rules, aiming to uphold the authority of existing trade remedy measures and ensure their effectiveness [3] - The Ministry of Commerce has collected public opinions on the draft rules for anti-circumvention investigations and plans to further enrich and improve China's trade remedy investigation system [3] - The Ministry emphasizes a cautious approach to implementing trade remedy measures while firmly protecting the legitimate rights and interests of domestic industries [3]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced its first anti-circumvention investigation ruling, indicating that U.S. exporters were found to be circumventing anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive wavelength-shift single-mode optical fibers by exporting related products to China [1] - The anti-circumvention measures will be implemented starting September 4, 2025, following the investigation initiated on March 4, 2025, at the request of domestic companies [1] - This case is significant as it enriches China's trade remedy investigation tools and aligns with Chinese laws and WTO rules, aiming to maintain the authority of existing trade remedy measures [1] Group 2 - On July 30, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce published a draft of the "Rules for Anti-Circumvention Investigations of Trade Remedy Measures" for public consultation, indicating a commitment to further enhance China's trade remedy investigation system [2] - The Ministry emphasizes a cautious and restrained approach to implementing trade remedy measures while firmly protecting the legitimate rights and interests of domestic industries [2]

Summary of the Conference Call on Beef Cattle Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the beef cattle industry in China, discussing supply, demand, pricing trends, and market adjustments from 2023 to 2025 [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Supply Dynamics - In 2023, the domestic beef supply was relatively loose, but a tightening trend is expected starting in 2025 [1]. - By the end of 2024, the number of beef cattle is projected to decrease by 4.4%, with further declines in early 2025, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [1][4]. - The number of breeding cows is expected to decrease by approximately 3% from January to November 2024, with newborn calves decreasing by about 10%, which may impact future beef production [1][5]. Pricing Trends - Beef prices have shown a slight recovery since March 2025, currently at 69.72 yuan/kg, which is 1.7% higher than the same period last year and close to 2019 levels [1][7]. - The average price for the year is expected to be stable or slightly higher compared to last year, driven by seasonal demand in autumn and winter [9][10]. Market Adjustments - The beef cattle industry is undergoing adjustments due to prolonged price declines, leading many farmers to reduce their scale or exit the market [4][20]. - The capacity reduction trend is expected to continue until the end of 2025 and possibly into 2026, with breeding cow numbers potentially dropping to 5%-6% of peak levels [8][25]. Import and Trade Dynamics - China relies on low-priced imported beef, which accounts for about 27% of its beef supply, with the total impact of low-priced imports nearing 30% [3][15]. - The Ministry of Commerce may implement trade relief measures, such as tariffs or quotas, to protect the domestic industry from the impact of low-priced imports [13][19]. Future Outlook - The beef production supply is anticipated to be affected in the coming years due to the long breeding cycle, with a significant reduction in breeding cows and newborn calves [5][12]. - The international beef supply is expected to tighten due to climate impacts in major beef-producing countries like Brazil and Argentina, leading to increased global beef prices [11][10]. Additional Important Insights - The beef cattle industry has experienced significant price cycles, with notable downturns in 1997-2000 and 2015-2016, and a current downturn since 2023 [21]. - The relationship between beef prices and raw milk prices is relatively weak, indicating that fluctuations in one do not directly affect the other [22]. - The Ministry of Commerce's extension of the investigation into import beef protection measures suggests ongoing challenges in the domestic market and a need for protective policies [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the beef cattle industry, highlighting supply trends, pricing dynamics, market adjustments, and future outlooks.