Core Insights - International oil prices rose due to the EU's strong rhetoric and expectations of tightened sanctions against Russia, reflecting the profound impact of soft power on the energy market [1][2][4] - The EU's classification of Russia's actions as "terrorism" has led to increased market expectations for sanctions, driving up oil prices [2][3] - Diesel market volatility is attributed to supply tightness and changes in delivery rules, with significant price fluctuations observed [1][2][4] Oil Price Movements - As of November 18, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled at $60.74 per barrel, up $0.83 (1.39%), while Brent crude oil futures rose to $64.89 per barrel, an increase of $0.69 (1.07%) [2] - The diesel market has seen a price gap surge between recent delivery month contracts, reflecting concerns over supply disruptions [3][4] Geopolitical Impacts - The impending U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies are expected to reduce Russian production capacity by 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day [3][4] - Asian buyers have begun to shift their sourcing away from Russian oil, opting for alternatives from the Middle East and the U.S. [3][4] Market Dynamics - The EU's sanctions are reshaping trade rules, compelling Russia to adjust its export structure, including increasing ESPO crude oil exports to China [4] - Despite geopolitical tensions raising risk premiums, a global oversupply of 4 million barrels per day is suppressing upward price movements [4] - The future of the energy market will depend on the resilience of Asian demand, which has seen an 8% increase in Chinese imports, and Russia's adjustments to its export structure [4]