特朗普关税上诉风波

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贵金属市场周报-20250905
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 09:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Supported by the main logic of the Fed's September interest rate cut, the trading sentiment in the precious metals market was highly optimistic, and the gold prices in both domestic and international markets continued to hit record highs. However, there was pressure for a phased correction due to overbought behavior, and the market entered a high - level shock [8]. - The probability of a September interest rate cut has risen to 99%, and the expectation has been largely digested by the market. In the short term, there may be a need for a correction. The market will focus on the US August non - farm payrolls report. In the long term, the precious metals market is still supported by the marginal damage to the US dollar's credit and hedging demand [8]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider light - position layout at low levels after a correction. Specific price ranges are provided for different contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Influenced by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, US trade deficit, PMI data, and employment data, gold prices reached a record high this week. But since Thursday, the upward momentum of gold and silver prices has slowed down, and the market has entered a high - level shock [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The probability of a September interest rate cut is 99%, and the expectation has been digested. There may be a short - term correction. The market focuses on the non - farm payrolls report. In the long run, the market is supported by the US dollar's credit and hedging demand [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see for now, and consider light - position layout at low levels after a correction. Provide price ranges for different contracts [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of September 5, 2025, COMEX silver was at $41.39 per ounce, up 1.56% week - on - week; COMEX gold was at $3606.50 per ounce, up 2.56% week - on - week. The Shanghai silver and gold futures contracts also had significant increases [11]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of September 4, 2025, the net holdings of foreign - market gold ETFs increased, while those of silver ETFs decreased slightly [12]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of August 26, 2025, COMEX gold speculative net positions increased, and silver speculative net positions decreased [17]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of August 26, 2025, the week - on - week increase in CFTC gold long positions and the decrease in short positions [22]. - **Basis Changes**: As of September 5, 2025, the gold basis in the Shanghai market weakened, and the silver basis strengthened [27]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of September 4, 2025, both gold and silver inventories increased [32]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of July 2025, silver imports decreased slightly, and silver ore imports rebounded significantly. The downstream semiconductor demand for silver drove the growth of integrated circuit production [38][43]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: The silver market was in a tight - balance pattern, and the supply - demand gap was narrowing year by year [48][54]. - **Gold Industry**: As of September 4, 2025, the gold recycling price and jewelry price increased with the rise of gold prices [58]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly, and the central bank's gold - buying pace slowed down, causing a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [62]. 3.4 Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: The US dollar rebounded from oversold levels this week, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained under pressure. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility increased significantly, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio continued to decline. The 10 - year US break - even inflation rate decreased. In August 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 2.18 tons [65][69][73][77].