在一段时间里为黄金和白银价格提供有力支撑的地缘政治紧张态势，如今已暂时有所缓和。以色列与哈 马斯成功达成协议，计划释放所有在加沙被扣押的人质，这一举措被视为朝着结束双方持续两年冲突迈 出的关键一步。 该协议是在多方共同努力下达成的，美国、埃及、卡塔尔以及土耳其积极从中斡旋，地点设在埃及的沙 姆沙伊赫，经过多轮间接谈判后最终敲定。根据协议条款，以色列方面将释放一批巴勒斯坦囚犯，同时 允许向加沙地区输送更多的人道援助物资，并逐步将军队撤回到加沙边境的缓冲区域。这一消息传出 后，市场的避险情绪明显减弱，给金银价格带来了短期的下行压力。 从外部宏观市场环境来看，也不利于贵金属价格走势。美元指数强势攀升，一举涨至九周以来的最高 点；原油价格则出现下滑，跌至每桶62美元附近；与此同时，美国10年期国债收益率稳定保持在4.13% 的水平。这些因素综合作用，进一步加剧了金银价格面临的压力。在当前复杂的市场形势下，投资者需 要密切关注各方动态以及宏观经济数据的变化，以便及时调整投资策略，应对可能出现的市场波动。毕 竟，贵金属市场受多种因素影响，未来走势仍存在较大不确定性。 【交易思路】 摘要周四，由于美元走高，且以色列和哈马斯 ...

员鹰派表态及"经济韧性与通胀粘性"并存的宏观环境支撑，10年期美债收益率回升至4.2%，货币政策与 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 利率走势形成共振，美元短线反弹或对贵金属市场走势形成一定压制。鲍威尔此前未就美联储是否会在10 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 月会议上降息给出任何暗示，与此前的超宽松预期形成一定反差。美联储内部就未来货币政策路径分歧加 免责声明 | | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-09-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 866.52 | 10.46 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 10939 | 307 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 263220 | -1085 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 508967 | -35265 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 167719 | 225 ...

Group 1 - The central bank of Pakistan reported an increase in foreign exchange reserves by $22 million for the week ending September 19, bringing total reserves to $14.38 billion [1] - The total national foreign exchange reserves reached $19.79 billion, with commercial banks holding net foreign exchange reserves of $5.41 billion [1] - The Pakistani Rupee appreciated slightly by 0.01% against the US dollar, closing at 281.41 on September 25, marking a cumulative appreciation of 0.84% since July [1] Group 2 - The price of gold in Pakistan decreased significantly on September 25, aligning with trends in the international market [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1][3] - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% [1][3] - Platinum prices surged by 11.5% in one week, breaking through $1500 per ounce, marking a 12-year high [1][3] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's recent price surge is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and loose liquidity [4][5] - The average price of silver is projected to be $28.27 per ounce in 2024, up from $23.35 in 2023 [4] - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, indicating that silver is still undervalued and has significant price recovery potential [5] Group 3: Platinum and Gold Performance - Platinum prices have increased significantly, with a year-to-date rise of over 73%, driven by demand in automotive catalysts and electric vehicle batteries [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [7][8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility at high levels [10][11] - The macroeconomic environment, including expectations of continued monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to support silver prices [10][11] - Central bank gold purchases are anticipated to remain a long-term strategic behavior, aimed at optimizing foreign exchange reserves and hedging against global uncertainties [8]

更重要的是，即将到来的"十一"长假为市场增添了不确定性。从历史数据来看，长假过后金银价格走势并无明显规 律，近12年里，黄金节后首日涨跌概率接近五五开。因此，机构普遍建议投资者在节前调整持仓策略。 "考虑到假期较长，期间海外市场仍将正常交易，任何突发消息都可能引发节后开盘的跳空行情，持仓风险较 大。"东证期货宏观策略首席分析师徐颖也提醒市场，节前预计存在减仓需求，需注意回调风险。 对于此轮贵金属的飙升行情，国信期货首席分析师顾冯达分析认为，核心驱动力来自三个方面：首先，美联储已开 启降息周期，市场预期年内还将有两次降息，这降低了持有无息资产黄金的机会成本；其次，中东等地缘政治冲突 持续发酵，不断推升全球市场的避险需求；此外，全球央行持续的购金行为以及白银在工业领域的旺盛应用前景， 也为贵金属价格提供了坚实的基本面支撑。 世界黄金协会的最新数据印证了这一点。数据显示，尽管金价高企，全球各经济体央行在7月份仍维持净购金态势。 中国央行更是连续10个月增持黄金储备，截至8月底，储备量已达2098.43吨。同时，在滞胀担忧下，欧美投资者正 加速配置黄金，全球实物黄金ETF已连续三个月实现资金净流入，8月流入额高达55 ...

8月底以来，在地缘政治风险升温与美联储降息预期的双重推动下，黄金、白银期货价格开启持续上涨 行情，金价不断刷新历史纪录，银价也逐步逼近历史高点。眼下国内"十一"国庆假期临近，尽管市场对 于贵金属中长期走势的乐观预期未改，但已有不少机构开始提示长假持仓风险。"美联储降息周期已然 开启，且市场预期年内还将继续降息两次，这为金银价格构成了核心驱动力。地缘局势方面，中东冲突 持续推升全球避险情绪。此外，全球央行的持续购金需求以及白银旺盛的工业应用前景，共同为贵金属 市场提供了价格支撑。" 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，"不过，贵金属价格在连续冲高后本身存在 技术性回调压力。近期多位美联储官员释放鹰派信号，若鹰派言论或风险事件引发多头获利了结，上述 因素形成共振，可能加剧短期波动。"（人民财讯） ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：韦子蓉 人民财讯9月25日电，8月底以来，在地缘政治风险升温与美联储降息预期的双重推动下，黄金、白银期 货价格开启持续上涨行情，金价不断刷新历史纪录，银价也逐步逼近历史高点。眼下国内"十一"国庆假 期临近，尽管市场对于贵金属中长期走势的乐观预期未改，但已有不少机构开始提示长假持仓风险。 "美联储降息周期已然开启，且市场预期年内还将继续降息两次，这为金银价格构成了核心驱动力。地 缘局势方面，中东冲突持续推升全球避险情绪。此外，全球央行的持续购金需求以及白银旺盛的工业应 用前景，共同为贵金属市场提供了价格支撑。" 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，"不过，贵金属价格 在连续冲高后本身存在技术性回调压力。近期多位美联储官员释放鹰派信号，若鹰派言论或风险事件引 发多头获利了结，上述因素形成共振，可能加剧短期波动。" ...

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: September 22, 2025 - Analyst: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 [1][5] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 2.27%. The Fed's 25bp rate cut and relatively stable Sino-US economic and trade negotiations create a neutral and warm macro - environment. With the support of the consumer peak season and pre - holiday restocking, the commodity market may run stably in the short term. Precious metals are likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall, while the short - term trend of other sectors varies [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.24% last week, with the black sector up 2.27%, energy and chemicals up 1.42%, and precious metals, agricultural products, and non - ferrous metals down 0.8%, 0.78%, and 0.66% respectively. The top - rising varieties were coking coal, coke, and glass, while the top - falling ones were live pigs, soybean meal, and tin. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market rebounded, and only the black and agricultural product sectors had net capital inflows [2][7]. - **Market Data Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the performance of different sectors and varieties, including the rise and fall of the Nanhua Index, the weekly contribution rate of each sector of the China Securities Commodity Index, the fluctuation of each variety's main contract, the performance of commodity - related sector indexes, the precipitation funds of each commodity sector, the weekly precipitation fund changes of each variety, the average trading - to - holding ratio of each variety, macro - high - frequency data, relevant ratios, and black - industry chain ratios [8][10][12] 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the sector initially corrected due to profit - taking but rebounded on the dovish remarks of the new Fed governor. It is likely to remain easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: After the Fed's rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled, but the restart of rate cuts still provides short - term support. With the pre - holiday restocking and improving macro - sentiment, the sector may run stably in the short term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. Steel mills have pre - holiday restocking needs, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. The iron ore port inventory decreased, and the coking coal's capacity expansion is less likely. The sector fluctuates with policy expectations [3]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices rose and then fell last week. The Fed's 25bp rate cut did not bring unexpected benefits, and the supply - demand contradiction after the peak oil - consumption season will gradually intensify. Geopolitical factors may cause short - term supply disruptions, but the premium space is limited. Trump's statement to lower oil prices also affects market sentiment. Oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester, the weaving load decreased slightly, and filament inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream has pre - holiday stocking expectations, but cost support is weak. Building materials such as glass and PVC still face high - supply and low - demand situations, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The actual export demand for US soybeans was poor, and the Sino - US call did not mention agricultural product trade. The overseas palm oil export data in the first half of September was inconsistent. The short - term domestic supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and the sector may run in a volatile manner [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - The report provides information on various commodity ETFs, including net value, weekly return, scale, share change, trading volume, trading volume change, and underlying assets. Gold - related ETFs have different performance in terms of return and scale change, and other commodity ETFs such as energy - chemical and agricultural - product - related ones also show different trends [41]

Group 1: Oil Market - Trump urged countries to stop purchasing oil from Russia, stating that a decrease in oil prices would lead to Putin withdrawing from the Ukraine conflict [4] - During Trump's remarks, international oil prices saw an increase in decline, with WTI crude futures and Brent crude futures both dropping over 1.1% at one point [4] - As of the market close, WTI crude settled down nearly 0.75% at $63.57 per barrel, while Brent crude settled down 0.75% at $67.44 per barrel [4] Group 2: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market experienced increased volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, with London gold spot prices surpassing $3,700 per ounce before significantly retreating [6] - Analysts noted that the Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, leading to a short-term price correction in precious metals [7] - The market's risk appetite, the U.S. dollar index, and global economic growth expectations are influencing short-term trends in precious metals prices [7] Group 3: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - Analysts generally expect precious metal prices to maintain high levels in the short term, with a long-term bullish trend remaining intact [9] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to heightened market risk aversion, which supports international gold prices [8] - Investors are advised to consider accumulating long positions in precious metals during price corrections, while remaining aware of potential risks such as decreased geopolitical tensions and a recovering U.S. job market [9]

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% to $3694.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.15% to $41.99 per ounce [1] - Analysts suggest that the shift in major central banks' monetary policies may further weaken the dollar's attractiveness, potentially providing support for the precious metals market [1] Group 2 - Recent reports indicate significant inflows into U.S. gold ETFs, totaling approximately $367 billion, while Chinese gold ETFs saw outflows exceeding $26.5 billion, marking China as the only region with notable reductions [3] - Retail investors are marginally increasing their gold holdings, while institutions are reducing their positions, reflecting a divergence in sentiment [3] - Speculative net long positions in gold have rapidly decreased, indicating a weakening bullish sentiment among institutions [3] - Although COMEX gold and London spot gold prices have reached historical highs, Shanghai gold has not yet surpassed its previous peak, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm in China compared to other global regions [3] - Hong Kong has announced five measures to accelerate the establishment of an international gold trading market, aiming to expand gold storage and build a regional gold reserve hub with a target of over 2000 tons in three years [3]