Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tension between Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Trump regarding interest rate policies, highlighting the potential for upcoming rate cuts amid political pressures and economic data fluctuations. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Powell asserts that not lowering interest rates is appropriate, despite Trump's demand for a 2-3 percentage point cut [1] - The probability of a July rate cut is only 21%, while September's likelihood has surged to over 90% [3] - The Fed's dot plot reveals a split among decision-makers, with 7 out of 19 opposing any rate cuts this year, while 8 support two cuts [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.1% month-on-month, and income dropped by 0.4%, marking the largest decline since the beginning of the year [3] - The conflicting signals of rising inflation and weak consumption have led to heightened expectations for multiple rate cuts this year [3] Group 3: Political Pressures - Trump's threats to appoint a new Fed chair who supports rate cuts create a challenging environment for Powell, who emphasizes the Fed's independence [7] - The potential for Trump to announce a new Fed chair nomination as early as September raises concerns about the Fed's autonomy [4] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Trump's announcement to terminate trade negotiations with Canada, the S&P 500 index experienced a sudden drop, reflecting the market's sensitivity to political developments [8] - Concurrently, news of potential tariff cancellations on China signals a thaw in U.S.-China trade relations, positively impacting tech and shipping stocks [9] Group 5: Global Economic Implications - Trump's secretive efforts to lift sanctions on Iran could lead to significant shifts in oil prices, depending on the U.S. administration's future actions [11] - The influx of 21.825 billion yuan into China's capital market from newly raised floating-rate funds indicates a positive trend for A-shares, providing much-needed liquidity [12]