1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2026, banks have been the main buyers of treasury bonds within 10 years and inter - bank certificates of deposit in the secondary market. Public funds are currently cautious, with low durations and a decreasing proportion of interest - rate purchases [1]. - The bank's liability side remains stable, supported by the growth of non - financial enterprises and non - banking institutions' deposits, while there is a certain loss of household deposits. The strong stock market performance has also promoted the growth of non - banking deposits [2]. - Although strengthening inter - bank self - discipline is beneficial for banks in the long - term, in the short - term, the partial loss of inter - bank deposits and the decline in liability stability may affect banks' asset - side behavior [3]. - There is uncertainty about whether non - banks can take over from banks to continue bullish operations. Non - banks are more cautious due to many disturbing factors, and the market rhythm and direction may change. Although non - banks have limited short - selling chips and there are opportunities for bullish band operations, the increasing supply in the primary market requires caution in April [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - banks to Take Over from Banks: Continue to Go Long? 3.1.1 Most Funds are Cautious, and Banks Become the Market Main Force - In 2026, banks are the main buyers of treasury bonds within 10 years and inter - bank certificates of deposit in the secondary market. Large - scale banks have a cumulative net purchase of 6450.9 billion yuan in treasury bonds and 2400.7 billion yuan in certificates of deposit in the secondary market. Small and medium - sized banks mainly buy policy financial bonds within 10 years, treasury bonds over 20 years, and more than 1 trillion yuan of inter - bank certificates of deposit [14]. - Banks also have a large amount of primary - market bond underwriting. The strong correlation between the primary - market issuance of 50 - year treasury bonds and banks' secondary - market sales indicates that the net secondary - market purchases underestimate banks' actual buying power [15]. - Public funds are currently cautious. Since early March, due to the unstable Middle - East situation, the market has gradually reduced durations, which have returned to the level before the Spring Festival. The trading enthusiasm of public funds in 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds has declined, and banks have become a stabilizing force in the market [17][19]. 3.1.2 The Stability of Banks' Liability Side Exceeds Expectations - Although there were concerns about the loss of time deposits in the first half of 2026, the bank's liability system remains stable. From December 2025 to January 2026, the year - on - year deposit growth rate of large - scale banks increased significantly, partly due to actual deposit growth and partly due to the low - base effect caused by the loss of non - bank inter - bank deposits [22]. - In terms of new deposits, non - financial enterprises and non - banking institutions are the main growth drivers, while household deposits have a certain loss. From January to February, household deposits increased less by 890 billion yuan, non - financial enterprises increased more by 1055.5 billion yuan, fiscal deposits increased less by 390 billion yuan, and non - banking financial institutions increased more by 1120 billion yuan, with a total net increase of 520 billion yuan [29]. - Large - scale banks' deposit attractiveness has marginally increased. In January and February, the new household deposits of small and medium - sized banks were relatively low, while large - scale banks performed better. In terms of enterprise deposits, large - scale banks also showed better performance [30]. - The strong stock market performance has promoted the growth of non - bank deposits. Historically, non - bank deposits are strongly correlated with stock market performance. From December 2025 to February 2026, the good stock market performance drove the growth of banks' non - bank deposits [35]. 3.1.3 Will Banks' Buying Power Weaken? - Media reports suggest that the self - discipline management of inter - bank deposit interest rates is being further strengthened. According to the new requirements, the proportion of inter - bank current deposits with an interest rate higher than 1.4% of the 7 - day reverse repurchase (OMO) policy rate should not exceed 10% - 20% at the end of the quarter [37]. - The record - high bank deposit - loan gap may reflect the increasing pressure on banks' interest spreads. As of February 2026, the deposit - loan gap of financial institutions reached a record high. In the long - term, strengthening inter - bank self - discipline is beneficial for reducing banks' liability costs and stabilizing net interest spreads. However, in the short - term, the partial loss of inter - bank deposits and the decline in liability stability may affect banks' asset - side behavior [38][45]. - Large - scale banks have abundant funds at the beginning of the year. They conduct short - term reverse repurchases and buy certificates of deposit. They also buy a large amount of treasury bonds in the secondary market, which has been an important factor driving down the bond market. However, the impact of strengthened inter - bank supervision on banks' liability sides remains to be seen. Non - banks are more cautious, and the market rhythm and direction may change. Although non - banks have limited short - selling chips and there are opportunities for bullish band operations, the increasing supply in the primary market requires caution in April [57]. 3.2 Market Review: Many Overseas Disturbances - Geopolitical conflicts have affected the bond market. On March 23, 2026, due to the expected escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the bond market was under pressure. After that, news about the US - Iran situation and the central bank's MLF operation also affected the bond market. This week, the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 1.4 BP, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 1.65 BP [59][60][61]. 3.3 High - Frequency Tracking: Rising Oil Prices, High Probability of PPI Turning Positive in March 3.3.1 Price Index: Rising Oil Prices, High Probability of PPI Turning Positive - Consumer prices: Pork prices continue to decline, while fruit and vegetable prices are stable. - Producer prices: Oil prices continue to rise. Based on the prices of five commodities in March, the year - on - year PPI in March is expected to turn positive, with an expected value of 2.39%, and the PPI for means of production is expected to be 3.39% [63][64]. 3.3.2 Production: Relatively Stable The production indicators such as crude steel daily output, key power plant coal consumption, PX operating rate, and steel enterprise blast furnace operating rate show relatively stable production [86][87]. 3.3.3 Consumption: Still Weak - Liquor prices are flat, automobile consumption has slightly recovered, and postal express volume is slightly higher than the same period [95]. 3.3.4 Investment: Still Weak Overall - Real estate: There is a certain "spring market" in the second - hand housing market, but land transfer remains weak. - Infrastructure: Asphalt and cement production are at relatively low levels [104]. 3.3.5 Imports and Exports: Rising Freight Rates The freight rates for imports and exports are rising [108]. 3.3.6 Inventory: Marginal Decline in Rebar and Copper The inventories of rebar and copper are showing a marginal decline [114]. 3.3.7 Transportation: At a High Level in the Same Period The coastal container freight rate index and other transportation - related indicators are at a high level compared to the same period [118].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the core theme of the A-share market remains the unprecedented low interest rate environment and the relative value of high-quality equity assets within the broader asset classes [1]. Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism - The central bank has been focusing on improving the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, which is crucial for enhancing the efficiency of monetary policy [5]. - The transmission mechanism implies that when the central bank lowers the policy interest rate, banks subsequently reduce deposit rates, which allows them to lower loan rates, ultimately reducing the overall borrowing costs for enterprises and individuals [6][7]. Market Behavior and Self-Discipline - There are issues in the transmission chain where not all participants follow the rules, leading to discrepancies in interest rates offered by banks [8]. - An example illustrates how a bank can manipulate deposit rates to meet its KPIs, which can disrupt the market equilibrium and lead to a "theater effect" where all banks are forced to raise rates to compete [11][12]. Regulatory Changes - The article discusses new regulations aimed at clarifying the interest rate range for interbank deposits, which will limit the survival of high-interest deposit offerings [14]. - The focus has shifted from overall weighted rates to monitoring the deviation of individual deposit rates, making it harder for banks to use creative accounting to meet their deposit targets [14]. Impacts on Various Markets - For banks, the long-term outlook is positive as the reduction in "price gouging" will likely lower liability costs and stabilize interest margins [17]. - The bond market will see a significant impact on short-term rates, as non-bank asset management products can no longer rely on high-interest interbank deposits [17]. - Pure bond asset management products may face challenges as high-yield assets diminish, leading to lower returns for money market funds [17][19]. Stock Market Implications - The article concludes that the low interest rate environment continues to be a core factor for A-share investment, with a focus on high-quality equity assets as a relative value proposition [22]. - Investors are advised to be cautious, as the current equity market may not be suitable for those who frequently trade without strong judgment capabilities [22][27].

Group 1: Improvement of Investment-Loan Linkage Mechanism - The investment-loan linkage mechanism is crucial for directing financial resources towards technological innovation and facilitating the "technology-industry-finance" cycle [3] - Current challenges include limited information sharing between banks and investment institutions, lack of standardized cooperation platforms, and insufficient policy support [3] - Recommendations include establishing standardized cooperation platforms, enhancing professional capabilities of banks, and improving transparency of information from technology enterprises [3][4] Group 2: Support for M&A Funds - Developing M&A funds can optimize industrial layout, enhance core competitiveness, and improve capital allocation efficiency [5] - Challenges faced by M&A funds include long investment cycles, immature market environments, and limited exit channels [5] - Suggestions include clarifying the definition of M&A funds, implementing differentiated regulatory measures, and supporting long-term capital investments [6] Group 3: Enhancement of High-Yield Bond Market - High-yield bonds can enrich the bond market, improve financing conditions for enterprises, and mitigate financing risks for technology companies [7] - Current issues include a lack of clear market structure and regulatory shortcomings [7] - Recommendations involve unifying high-yield bond rules, establishing a tiered access mechanism, and improving post-default bond disposal mechanisms [7][9] Group 4: Investor Protection and Market Liquidity - Encouraging diverse bond clause designs can enhance creditor protection and increase the cost of illegal actions by issuers [9] - Suggestions include improving information disclosure systems, strengthening enforcement of disclosure rules, and developing credit derivatives to enhance risk management capabilities [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents three key recommendations from Jia Wenqin, a representative at the National People's Congress, aimed at enhancing the investment and financing mechanisms in China, specifically focusing on improving the investment-loan linkage mechanism, supporting the healthy development of merger and acquisition (M&A) funds, and refining the high-yield bond market [1]. Group 1: Improving Investment-Loan Linkage Mechanism - The investment-loan linkage business is crucial for directing financial resources towards technological innovation and facilitating the "technology-industry-finance" cycle [3]. - Challenges in the current system include limited information sharing between banks and investment institutions, lack of standardized cooperation platforms, and insufficient policy support [3]. - Recommendations include establishing standardized cooperation platforms, enhancing communication and training mechanisms, and improving the professional capabilities of business entities involved [3][4]. Group 2: Supporting Healthy Development of M&A Funds - Developing M&A funds can optimize industrial layout, enhance core competitiveness, and improve capital allocation efficiency [6]. - Current challenges include long investment cycles, limited exit channels, and an immature investment market environment [6]. - Suggestions include clarifying the definition of M&A funds, implementing differentiated regulatory measures, and supporting long-term capital investments from insurance and pension funds [6][7]. Group 3: Refining High-Yield Bond Market - High-yield bonds can enrich the bond market, improve financing conditions for enterprises, and mitigate financing risks for technology companies [9]. - The current high-yield bond market lacks a clear structure and regulatory framework, despite having developed to a certain scale [9]. - Recommendations include unifying rules for high-yield bonds, establishing a tiered access mechanism, and enhancing the information disclosure system [9][10][11].

Group 1 - Shanghai released new real estate policies, "Hu Qitiao," which will reduce the social security payment requirement for non-local residents from 3 years to 1 year for purchasing homes within the outer ring, effective from February 26, 2026 [2] - The maximum family loan amount for public housing funds can reach 3.24 million yuan, and local residents can temporarily avoid property tax if the newly purchased home is their only property [2] - New fund issuance has exceeded 210 billion units this year, with 228 new funds established by February 26, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [2] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission raised domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices by 175 yuan and 170 yuan per ton, respectively, effective from February 24, impacting consumer travel costs and logistics [2] - The 2026 Spring Festival box office reached 5.752 billion yuan, with 120 million viewers, indicating strong vitality in the cultural consumption market [3] - Public funds have distributed over 36.4 billion yuan in dividends this year, with 829 funds implementing dividend distributions [4] Group 3 - The U.S. has officially imposed a 10% global tariff, with plans to increase it to 15%, affecting various industries including large batteries and industrial chemicals [5] - India has relaxed regulations for its $384 billion actively managed stock funds, allowing more investment in gold and silver, enhancing flexibility amid rising global demand for hard assets [5] Group 4 - Recent global stock market performance has been mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.98% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.80%, while U.S. indices saw declines [6][7] - The yield on 1-year Chinese government bonds rose by 0.71 basis points to 1.32%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 11 basis points to 3.97% [10][11] Group 5 - Precious metals continued to show strength, with COMEX gold rising by 4.24% and silver by 13.80%, while international oil prices also increased [13][14] - Bank wealth management subsidiaries dominated financing in bank financial products, accounting for 73.97% of participating institutions and 95.67% of financing scale [15][16]

Group 1 - The supply and demand for certificates of deposit (CDs) are relatively friendly, supporting stable CD interest rates. Despite some disturbances in the funding environment since 2026, the overall trend of CD interest rates has remained stable, supported by both supply and demand factors [7][16]. - On the supply side, the central bank has injected a significant amount of medium to long-term liquidity, resulting in a noticeable decline in net financing of bank CDs compared to previous years. Since Q4 2025, the central bank has increased liquidity injections through tools like MLF and reverse repos, while also resuming normalized bond purchases [7][16]. - On the demand side, non-bank institutions have shown strong interest in allocating CDs, particularly insurance and wealth management products. The relative advantage of CDs over repos in a liquidity-rich environment has supported this demand [7][16]. Group 2 - Looking ahead, the downward space for CD interest rates may be limited. The central bank's use of quantity-based monetary policy tools is relatively restrained, making further declines in CD interest rates challenging. The main liquidity tools currently in use have shorter maturities, and the central bank has not employed rate cuts since May 2025 [16][30]. - There is a structural differentiation in CDs, with smaller banks facing greater challenges in reducing CD interest rates. Smaller banks typically have higher funding costs and may face demand constraints due to rating limitations. Regulatory changes may also lead to a contraction in CD demand from smaller banks [16][30]. Group 3 - The difficulty in lowering CD interest rates may significantly restrict the motivation for institutions to purchase bonds, especially as expectations for credit easing policies rise after the March Two Sessions. This could narrow the downward space for long-term bond rates, suggesting a cautious approach towards long-duration assets [30]. - In the medium term, the anticipated introduction of credit easing policies may elevate the central tendency of long-term bond rates, while government debt supply remains under pressure. This indicates potential risks for long-duration assets, while mid to short-term credit bonds may still offer attractive value [30].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Wujin Stainless Steel experienced a stock price increase of 5.15%, reaching 9.59 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 181 million CNY and a turnover rate of 3.45%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 5.381 billion CNY [1] - Wujin Stainless Steel, established on March 30, 2001, and listed on December 19, 2016, specializes in the research, production, and sales of industrial stainless steel pipes and fittings [1] - The company's main business revenue composition includes seamless pipes at 75.33%, welded pipes at 21.60%, and fittings and others at 3.07% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders, E Fund's fund, E Fund CSI Dividend ETF (515180), entered the top ten circulating shareholders with 7.0473 million shares, accounting for 1.26% of the circulating shares, and has an estimated floating profit of approximately 3.3122 million CNY [2] - E Fund CSI Dividend ETF (515180) was established on November 26, 2019, with a latest scale of 11.805 billion CNY, and has achieved a return of 5.08% this year, ranking 3089 out of 5574 in its category [2] - The fund manager Lin Weibin has a cumulative tenure of 12 years and 362 days, managing a total fund asset of 119.408 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 83.34% [2]

Group 1 - The total scale of fixed-term deposits maturing in 2026 is estimated to be around 50 trillion, with most maturing in the first two quarters of 2026 [2] - Current deposit interest rates are relatively low, mostly around 1% compared to 2021-2022, leading to a low risk appetite for deposit funds [2] - A few hundred billion to a trillion level of funds may flow into the stock market, which is beneficial but not significantly large [3] Group 2 - Investment in financial products or funds is primarily focused on "fixed income +" strategies, with bonds as the main component and stocks as a supplementary part [4] - The stock portion of these strategies tends to focus on low volatility and low dividend stocks, which could benefit dividend indices [4] - The market size for "fixed income +" strategies is expected to grow rapidly in 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced extreme volatility at the beginning of 2026, with gold prices initially soaring above $5600 per ounce before plummeting below $4500, while silver saw daily declines exceeding 15% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The immediate trigger for the volatility was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which reversed market expectations for interest rate cuts and strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on gold and silver prices [3]. - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the core Producer Price Index (PPI) for December 2025 exceeded economists' expectations, indicating that inflation is becoming more embedded in the economy, which may prolong the Fed's neutral monetary policy [3]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements for gold and silver, exacerbating the volatility as high-leverage positions were forced to liquidate, leading to a liquidity crunch [3][5]. Group 2: Institutional Responses - Major financial institutions, including banks, have implemented measures to mitigate risks associated with the market's volatility, such as increasing minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation products and adjusting margin requirements for silver contracts [7][15]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange have also taken steps to manage risk by adjusting margin and trading limits for silver futures [5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term volatility, many fund managers believe that the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by structural factors such as ongoing central bank purchases and a weakening dollar credit system [7][9]. - UBS Wealth Management has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 to $6200 per ounce, reflecting strong demand from central banks [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Experts recommend that ordinary investors adopt differentiated strategies, such as using dollar-cost averaging to mitigate the impact of market volatility on investment returns [11][12]. - Investment in gold ETFs and bank accumulation products is advised over direct futures trading, with a suggested allocation of 5% to 15% of household financial assets to precious metals [12][14]. - Specific trading strategies include positioning in gold and silver ETFs when prices fall within certain ranges, while maintaining strict risk management practices [14].

Group 1 - In January, social financing scale reached a record high of 7.22 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 9% year-on-year, indicating strong support from a moderately loose monetary policy for the economy's stable start [1][5] - The anticipated visit of US President Trump to China in April is expected to ease bilateral trade tensions, potentially extending the "truce" in US-China trade relations and stabilizing global supply chains [1][5] - The launch of ByteDance's AI video model Seedance 2.0 has positively impacted the media sector, leading to a significant rebound in the net value of several media-themed funds [1][5] Group 2 - The bank wealth management market is showing strong capital attraction, with an expected recovery of 1 trillion yuan in February, driven by declining deposit rates and year-end bonuses [2][5] - The expansion of pension wealth management trials nationwide, with increased fundraising limits for institutions, provides a broader business space for wealth management companies and more stable pension growth tools for investors [2][5] - The Federal Reserve's February meeting minutes indicate a hawkish stance, with expectations for interest rate cuts being postponed, leading to a short-term strengthening of the US dollar [2][5] Group 3 - The "AI panic trading" in tech stocks has caused significant market fluctuations, with funds shifting from overvalued AI sectors to more stable cash flow assets, particularly in Chinese internet leaders and high-dividend stocks [3][5] - Global stock markets showed mixed performance before the Spring Festival, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.41% and the Nasdaq Index declining by 2.10% [4][5] Group 4 - The bond yield performance was mixed, with the 1-year Chinese government bond yield rising by 0.95 basis points to 1.32%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 18 basis points to 4.04% [8][11] - The overall performance of the Wande Fund Index was stable, with the Wande Stock Fund Index rising by 1.26% [9][10]