债 券 研 究 2026 年 02 月 28 日 存单走势或制约长债空间 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 联系人 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 债 券 策 略 告 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com ⚫ 供需均较为友好，支撑存单利率平稳。2026 年以来，尽管资金面面临了一些扰动，包括 税期、跨节等因素，但存单利率走势总体平稳，从供给端和需求端来看，对存单利率都较 为友好。 ➢ 供给端来看，央行投放了较多相对中长期的流动性，银行存单净融资规模明显低于 往年同期。实际上，自 2025 年四季度开始，央行流动性投放力度就明显增强，并 且通过 MLF、买断式逆回购等工具投放了较多相对中长期的流动性，同时恢复了常 态化买债操作，但对银行负债端补充 ...

2月27日，武进不锈涨5.15%，截至发稿，报9.59元/股，成交1.81亿元，换手率3.45%，总市值53.81亿 元。 数据显示，易方达基金旗下1只基金位居武进不锈十大流通股东。易方达中证红利ETF（515180）三季 度新进十大流通股东，持有股数704.73万股，占流通股的比例为1.26%。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约 331.22万元。 易方达中证红利ETF（515180）成立日期2019年11月26日，最新规模118.05亿。今年以来收益5.08%， 同类排名3089/5574；近一年收益14.42%，同类排名3252/4326；成立以来收益86.58%。 易方达中证红利ETF（515180）基金经理为林伟斌、宋钊贤。 截至发稿，林伟斌累计任职时间12年362天，现任基金资产总规模1194.08亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 83.34%， 任职期间最差基金回报-22.14%。 资料显示，江苏武进不锈股份有限公司位于江苏省常州市天宁区郑陆镇武澄西路1号，成立日期2001年3 月30日，上市日期2016年12月19日，公司主营业务涉及工业用不锈钢管及管件的研发、生产与销售。主 营业务收入构成为：无缝管75.3 ...

Group 1 - The total scale of fixed-term deposits maturing in 2026 is estimated to be around 50 trillion, with most maturing in the first two quarters of 2026 [2] - Current deposit interest rates are relatively low, mostly around 1% compared to 2021-2022, leading to a low risk appetite for deposit funds [2] - A few hundred billion to a trillion level of funds may flow into the stock market, which is beneficial but not significantly large [3] Group 2 - Investment in financial products or funds is primarily focused on "fixed income +" strategies, with bonds as the main component and stocks as a supplementary part [4] - The stock portion of these strategies tends to focus on low volatility and low dividend stocks, which could benefit dividend indices [4] - The market size for "fixed income +" strategies is expected to grow rapidly in 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced extreme volatility at the beginning of 2026, with gold prices initially soaring above $5600 per ounce before plummeting below $4500, while silver saw daily declines exceeding 15% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The immediate trigger for the volatility was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which reversed market expectations for interest rate cuts and strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on gold and silver prices [3]. - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the core Producer Price Index (PPI) for December 2025 exceeded economists' expectations, indicating that inflation is becoming more embedded in the economy, which may prolong the Fed's neutral monetary policy [3]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements for gold and silver, exacerbating the volatility as high-leverage positions were forced to liquidate, leading to a liquidity crunch [3][5]. Group 2: Institutional Responses - Major financial institutions, including banks, have implemented measures to mitigate risks associated with the market's volatility, such as increasing minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation products and adjusting margin requirements for silver contracts [7][15]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange have also taken steps to manage risk by adjusting margin and trading limits for silver futures [5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term volatility, many fund managers believe that the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by structural factors such as ongoing central bank purchases and a weakening dollar credit system [7][9]. - UBS Wealth Management has raised its gold price target for the first three quarters of 2026 to $6200 per ounce, reflecting strong demand from central banks [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Experts recommend that ordinary investors adopt differentiated strategies, such as using dollar-cost averaging to mitigate the impact of market volatility on investment returns [11][12]. - Investment in gold ETFs and bank accumulation products is advised over direct futures trading, with a suggested allocation of 5% to 15% of household financial assets to precious metals [12][14]. - Specific trading strategies include positioning in gold and silver ETFs when prices fall within certain ranges, while maintaining strict risk management practices [14].

Group 1 - In January, social financing scale reached a record high of 7.22 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 9% year-on-year, indicating strong support from a moderately loose monetary policy for the economy's stable start [1][5] - The anticipated visit of US President Trump to China in April is expected to ease bilateral trade tensions, potentially extending the "truce" in US-China trade relations and stabilizing global supply chains [1][5] - The launch of ByteDance's AI video model Seedance 2.0 has positively impacted the media sector, leading to a significant rebound in the net value of several media-themed funds [1][5] Group 2 - The bank wealth management market is showing strong capital attraction, with an expected recovery of 1 trillion yuan in February, driven by declining deposit rates and year-end bonuses [2][5] - The expansion of pension wealth management trials nationwide, with increased fundraising limits for institutions, provides a broader business space for wealth management companies and more stable pension growth tools for investors [2][5] - The Federal Reserve's February meeting minutes indicate a hawkish stance, with expectations for interest rate cuts being postponed, leading to a short-term strengthening of the US dollar [2][5] Group 3 - The "AI panic trading" in tech stocks has caused significant market fluctuations, with funds shifting from overvalued AI sectors to more stable cash flow assets, particularly in Chinese internet leaders and high-dividend stocks [3][5] - Global stock markets showed mixed performance before the Spring Festival, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.41% and the Nasdaq Index declining by 2.10% [4][5] Group 4 - The bond yield performance was mixed, with the 1-year Chinese government bond yield rising by 0.95 basis points to 1.32%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 18 basis points to 4.04% [8][11] - The overall performance of the Wande Fund Index was stable, with the Wande Stock Fund Index rising by 1.26% [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown signs of recovery over the past month, with various fixed-income products achieving positive returns, particularly those with embedded options, while the stock market remains volatile and weak [2][3][9]. Group 1: Fixed Income Product Performance - In the past month, all types of fixed-income products have generated positive returns, with option-embedded bond funds leading at 0.74%, followed by medium to long-term bond funds at 0.37%, short bond funds at 0.20%, high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.15%, and cash management products at 0.10% [3][9]. - The recovery in the bond market is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets due to stock and commodity market volatility, as well as a more favorable liquidity environment [9][19]. Group 2: Market Review - The bond market has experienced a recovery, with interest rates declining, supported by factors such as increased investor demand for bonds during the holiday season and a more abundant liquidity environment [9][19]. - The 10-year government bond yield has dropped below the critical level of 1.8%, but further downward movement is expected to be limited in the short term [9][22]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, the bond market's recovery may be nearing its end, with potential upward pressure on interest rates due to various factors, including stock market performance and inflation expectations [22][28]. - The strategy for investors includes maintaining positions in short to medium-term pure bond products while waiting for better entry points for long-duration bonds as yields rise [34][35]. Group 4: Credit Bond Market - The credit bond market is expected to remain stable, with limited risks of widening credit spreads, and short to medium-duration products are favored [23][34]. - Investors are advised to continue holding medium to short-duration products to capture coupon payments, while being cautious with long-duration credit bonds due to increased volatility [23][34]. Group 5: Regulatory Updates - On January 23, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of publicly offered securities investment funds, which aim to simplify compliance requirements and enhance transparency in the fixed-income market [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trend of "deposit migration" reflects a significant shift in asset allocation strategies among investors, driven by the declining interest rates on bank deposits and the search for better returns [1][2]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Trends - The term "deposit migration" refers to the movement of funds from traditional bank deposits to various asset management products, rather than simply transferring money between banks [1]. - A concentrated wave of residential fixed-term deposits is expected to mature in 2026, with estimates ranging from 50 trillion to 75 trillion yuan [3]. - The interest rates on fixed-term deposits have significantly decreased, with major banks offering rates as low as 0.95% for one-year deposits, making traditional savings less appealing [3]. Group 2: Investment Alternatives - Investors are increasingly turning to bank wealth management products as a primary destination for migrating funds, as these products maintain a stable profile while offering better returns [2][3]. - Beyond bank products, other financial instruments such as insurance and mutual funds are becoming competitive options for investors, with products like dividend insurance and "stable income" funds gaining popularity [4]. - The emergence of "new three golds" (money market funds, bond funds, and gold funds) caters to younger investors seeking low-threshold and easy-to-manage investment options [4]. Group 3: Risk Awareness - Despite the appeal of "stable" investment products, it is crucial for investors to recognize that "stability" does not equate to "absolute safety," as all investments carry inherent risks [4]. - Investors are advised to diversify their portfolios and not to rely solely on high-yield, low-risk promises, emphasizing the importance of understanding their own risk tolerance [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that international precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing significant price increases, with gold nearing $5100 per ounce and silver rising sharply to $85.589 per ounce [1][4]. - Spot gold has increased by 1.37% to $5096.600, with a daily high of $5101.230 and a low of $5023.920 [2]. - Spot silver has surged by 5.99%, reaching a high of $85.703, with a previous close of $80.751 [5]. Group 2 - Major financial institutions are raising their gold price targets, with forecasts suggesting gold could reach $6000 by the end of the year according to Societe Generale, and Wells Fargo increasing its target to $6300 [7]. - JPMorgan Chase indicates that if private sector demand continues to grow, gold prices could potentially reach around $8000 per ounce by the end of the decade [7]. - The World Silver Association reports that the silver market will face a supply gap of 67 million ounces by 2026, driven by factors such as tight physical supply in London and geopolitical uncertainties [7].

Group 1: Insurance and Investment - Insurance capital is increasingly participating in private equity funds, with companies like Tianjin Lanqin Equity Investment Partnership being established and major insurers like Taikang Life involved as partners [1] - Since 2026, leading insurers such as China Life and Xinhua Insurance have launched new projects in private equity, driven by a policy environment encouraging long-term investments [1] - The need for asset-liability matching in a low-interest-rate environment is pushing insurers to seek private equity investments to enhance long-term returns [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - Over 60% of private equity firms plan to heavily invest in A-shares as the Spring Festival approaches, with an average estimated position of 75.68% during the holiday [2] - Public funds are increasingly accumulating positions in the consumer sector, with notable fund managers investing significantly in leading pet companies, indicating a rebound in consumer stocks [3] Group 3: Bond Market Developments - The yield on 10-year government bonds has fallen below 1.8%, indicating a return of the bond market's safe-haven attributes amid improved liquidity and insurance capital allocation [4] - The bond market is experiencing a structural recovery, with differing opinions on the potential for further interest rate declines [4] Group 4: Private Equity Growth - The number of private equity firms managing over 10 billion yuan has reached a record high of 122, with 10 new firms entering this category since December 2025 [5] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Financing - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to maintain liquidity and favorable financing conditions [6] Group 6: Corporate Financing and Regulations - New refinancing regulations have been introduced to support quality listed companies and enhance the flexibility of financing for technology innovation enterprises [7] - Many listed companies are actively exploring refinancing opportunities to strengthen their core competitiveness [7] Group 7: Local Government Debt Management - Local governments are making significant progress in clearing hidden debts, with at least 34 cities reporting advancements in their debt clearance tasks since 2026 [8] Group 8: IPO Market Improvements - The quality of IPO applications in the A-share market has improved significantly, with stricter regulations leading to better compliance and transparency among applicants [9] Group 9: Robotics Industry Developments - The humanoid robotics sector is accelerating its capital market activities, with several companies initiating IPO processes as the industry transitions from technology validation to commercialization [10] Group 10: Housing Market Policies - Various cities, including Chongqing, are implementing policies to stimulate housing consumption, such as providing subsidies and enhancing loan support for homebuyers [11] Group 11: Telecommunications Infrastructure - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set a timeline for enhancing low-altitude communication networks, with major telecom companies actively preparing for this development [12][13]

银行渠道的投资金条价格同样跟随大盘上涨，建设银行"龙鼎金条"报价1128.97元/克，工商银行"如意金条"为1134.32元/克，农业银行"传世之宝"报1129.85 元/克，中国银行"吉祥金"为1109.85元/克，浦发银行投资金条价格较高，达到1189元/克，上海黄金交易所提供的标准金条价格为1110元/克。 2026年2月8日国内黄金市场呈现普涨格局，现货及基础金价站稳1100元/克上方，主流金店饰品价格回升至1500元区间，央行连续第15个月增持黄金储备， 外汇储备规模创近十年新高。 一、国内黄金市场价格 国内黄金市场交易活跃，价格走势强劲，上海现货黄金9999及中国黄金基础金价均报收于1105元/克至1115元/克区间，沪金期货主力合约价格维持在1114元/ 克，较前一交易日呈现明显的上涨行情，涨幅约1.7%。 在零售端，各大品牌金店的黄金饰品价格随之上调，周生生黄金以1545元/克的报价领跑市场，中国黄金紧随其后报1549元/克，周大福、潮宏基、谢瑞麟等 品牌均为1542元/克，老凤祥与老庙黄金报1539元/克，菜百首饰价格相对亲民，为1518元/克，金饰价格波动区间在1278元至1508元之间。 ...