狭义财政收支

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宏观经济点评:广义财政收入压力边际缓解
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-19 15:24
Revenue Insights - In July, the national general public budget revenue reached 2,027.3 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.7%[2] - Cumulative public finance revenue from January to July turned positive at 0.1% year-on-year, aligning with budget targets[2] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5% year-on-year, up from 1% previously, with personal income tax growing by 14%[2] Expenditure Trends - Public finance expenditure in July was 1,946.6 billion CNY, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase, up from 0.4%[3] - Cumulative expenditure growth for the first half of the year was 3.4%, still below the annual target of 4%[3] - Social security, education, and health expenditures grew by 13%, 5%, and 14% respectively in July, indicating a focus on social welfare[3] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue in July was 368.2 billion CNY, marking a 9% year-on-year increase, although the growth rate has slowed[4] - Government fund expenditure reached 801.4 billion CNY in July, with a significant year-on-year growth of 42%, although this was a decrease from June's 79%[5] Fiscal Balance and Outlook - The gap in broad fiscal revenue and expenditure expanded to 5.6 trillion CNY, but the shortfall is narrowing due to improved revenue[6] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds has supported increased government fund expenditures, with 1.1 trillion CNY in special bonds issued in June and July[5] - The broad fiscal deficit is expected to remain high in Q3, with a potential decline in Q4 as bond issuance slows down[6]