Revenue Insights - In the first ten months of 2025, total fiscal revenue reached 18.65 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[1] - October fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.16%[1] - Tax revenue in October was 2.07 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%[3] Expenditure Trends - Total fiscal expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion, up 2% year-on-year[1] - October fiscal expenditure was 1.78 trillion, reflecting a significant decline of 9.78% year-on-year[1] - The expenditure progress for October accounted for only 6% of the annual total, below the seasonal average of 6.5%[9] Non-Tax Revenue and Land Sales - Non-tax revenue in October was 191.4 billion, down 33% year-on-year, marking a five-year low[3] - Government fund revenue in October was 375.6 billion, a decrease of 18.4% year-on-year[10] - Land transfer revenue fell to 268 billion, down 27.3% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the decline in government fund revenue[10] Future Outlook - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be proactive and expansionary, with a projected deficit rate of around 4%[2] - Total fiscal expenditure for 2026 is anticipated to reach 43 trillion, an increase of 1.13 trillion compared to 2025[2] - The focus will shift towards "investment in people" alongside traditional infrastructure investments[4]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy has shown stable performance in 2023, leading to a recovery in fiscal revenue, supported by proactive fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [1][11]. Fiscal Revenue and Taxation - In the first three quarters of 2023, the broad fiscal revenue reached 19.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 0.4%, marking the first positive growth in fiscal revenue this year [1]. - The general public budget revenue was 16.39 trillion yuan, with tax revenue at 13.27 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5% and 0.7% respectively [2]. - Tax revenue growth turned positive in recent months, with September showing an 8.7% year-on-year increase, the highest for the year, driven by improved corporate performance and active capital market transactions [2][3]. Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue in the general public budget decreased by 0.4% year-on-year to 312.12 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's growth of 13.5% [4]. - The decline in non-tax revenue is attributed to a high base from previous years and stricter regulations on administrative penalties [4][7]. Government Bonds and Fiscal Expenditure - The net financing of government bonds reached 1.146 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 428 billion yuan year-on-year [10]. - Fiscal expenditure for the same period was 20.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with significant allocations towards social security, education, and healthcare [11]. - The government has accelerated the issuance of special bonds to support major projects, with a total expenditure of 4.21 trillion yuan from various bond types [14][15]. Real Estate and Land Revenue - The revenue from government funds, primarily from land sales, decreased by 0.5% year-on-year to 30.72 billion yuan, with land use rights revenue dropping by 4.2% [7][8]. - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have led to a narrowing decline in land sale revenues and related taxes [8]. Investment and Economic Stability - The introduction of new policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan aims to enhance project capital and stimulate total investment by approximately 4.8 trillion yuan [15]. - The fiscal policies are designed to support local governments in managing existing debts and facilitating economic recovery [15].

Core Insights - In September, national tax revenue increased by 8.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate of the year [1] - The overall fiscal revenue in the first three quarters reached 19.46 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 0.4%, indicating a recovery in fiscal income [2][3] - The growth in tax revenue is primarily driven by improved corporate performance and active capital market transactions [3] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - The general public budget revenue for the first three quarters was 16.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while tax revenue reached 13.27 trillion yuan, growing by 0.7% [3] - Fiscal expenditure for the same period was 28.30 trillion yuan, up 7.9%, exceeding the economic growth rate of 5.2% [2] - Expenditure on social security and employment, education, and health care grew by 10%, 5.4%, and 4.7% respectively, reflecting a focus on social welfare [12] Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue growth has turned positive after being negative earlier in the year, with September's growth significantly higher than August's by 5.3 percentage points [3] - The capital market's performance has positively influenced tax revenue, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 110.5% year-on-year [3] - The decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) has also contributed to the recent tax revenue growth [4] Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue in the general public budget decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, contrasting with a 13.5% increase in the previous year [5] - The decline in non-tax revenue is attributed to a high base from previous years and stricter regulation on administrative penalties [5][9] Government Fund Revenue - Government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, was 30.72 trillion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue decreasing by 4.2% [10] - The decline in land sales revenue is expected to narrow due to policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [10] Debt Financing and Investment - Net financing from government bonds reached 1.146 trillion yuan, an increase of 428 billion yuan year-on-year [11] - The government has accelerated the issuance of special bonds to support major projects, with a total expenditure of 4.21 trillion yuan from various bond types [15] - New policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan have been introduced to enhance project capital, expected to drive total project investment by 4.8 trillion yuan [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of fiscal revenue and expenditure in August, highlighting a slight year-on-year increase in tax revenue while non-tax revenue continues to decline, indicating a need for sustained economic growth policies [1][4][25]. Fiscal Revenue - In August, fiscal revenue increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with tax revenue rising by 3.4% and non-tax revenue decreasing by 3.8%, continuing the trend of stronger tax revenue since May [1][5]. - Cumulative fiscal revenue from January to August showed a slight increase of 0.3%, slightly exceeding the initial budget target of 0.1% [1][6]. - The performance of corporate income tax, personal income tax, and domestic value-added tax in August was strong, with year-on-year increases of 33.4%, 9.7%, and 4.4%, respectively [2][11]. Fiscal Expenditure - Fiscal expenditure in August showed a decline, with spending growth lower than the average level for the same period in previous years, primarily due to a slowdown in infrastructure-related expenditures [3][16]. - Social security and employment expenditures maintained a high growth rate of 10.9% year-on-year in August, contributing positively to overall expenditure growth [3][16]. - Cumulative fiscal expenditure from January to August increased by 3.1%, which is still below the initial budget target of 4.4% [17]. Broader Fiscal Context - Land revenue growth further declined by 12.9 percentage points to -5.8% in August, reflecting a significant drop in land sales [21]. - The overall performance of government fund income from January to August showed a cumulative decline of 1.4%, indicating challenges in meeting the annual growth target of 0.7% [21][25]. - The article emphasizes the need for new policies to stabilize growth, particularly in the context of declining contributions from the real estate sector [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, fiscal revenue improved marginally, and fiscal expenditure maintained a relatively high growth rate. However, there is a risk of a decline in fiscal expenditure in the future [1][4]. - Fiscal revenue improvement mainly came from tax revenue, with VAT and corporate income tax contributing more to tax growth. Fiscal expenditure relied more on government debt, and the broad fiscal deficit rate was at a relatively high level [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Revenue Side - **General Public Budget Revenue**: In July 2025, the monthly general public budget revenue increased by 2.65% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.3%), with tax revenue up 5.0% (previous value: 1.0%) and non - tax revenue down 12.93% (previous value: - 3.7%), showing an improved revenue structure [1][11]. - **Tax Revenue Composition**: In July, the four major taxes all performed well. Domestic VAT increased by 4.3% year - on - year, consumption tax by 5.4%, corporate income tax by 6.4%, and individual income tax by 13.9%. VAT and corporate income tax contributed more to the year - on - year tax growth. Export tax rebates decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, and real - estate - related taxes decreased by 3.8%. Vehicle purchase tax decreased by 13.8%. In June, stamp duty and securities trading stamp duty increased by 24.2% and 125.4% respectively [2][13]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year (previous value: 20.8%). Considering the time lag between land transactions and government fund revenue and the weak real - estate investment growth, its sustainability needs further observation [1][17]. - **Accumulated Revenue**: From January to July, the accumulated general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year, in line with the annual budget, but the structure was poor. Tax revenue growth was - 0.3%, lower than the budgeted 3.7%, while non - tax revenue growth was 2.0%, higher than the budgeted - 14.2%. Government bond fund revenue decreased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the narrowing decline's sustainability to be observed [23]. Expenditure Side - **General Public Budget Expenditure**: In July, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.04% year - on - year (previous value: 0.38%), showing a rebound in expenditure growth [2][19]. - **Government Fund Expenditure**: In July, government fund expenditure increased by 42.4% year - on - year, maintaining a high growth rate. This may be related to the positive growth of government fund revenue in July and the accelerated issuance of new special bonds since the end of June [2][19]. - **Expenditure Structure**: In July, traditional infrastructure expenditure continued to contract, with an overall infrastructure - related fiscal expenditure growth rate of - 3.8% (previous value: - 8.8%). Expenditure on social security increased by 13.1%, health by 14.2%, and debt service by 8.9% [3][19]. - **Accumulated Expenditure**: From January to July, fiscal expenditure growth was 3.4%, slightly lower than the annual budgeted 4.4%. Government fund expenditure growth was 31.7%, higher than the budgeted 23.1%, indicating relatively front - loaded spending [23]. Fiscal Deficit - As of July, fiscal expenditure relied more on government debt, and the broad fiscal deficit rate was at a relatively high level. From January to July, the general budget fiscal deficit was 2.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.5 trillion yuan. The accumulated broad fiscal deficit was 5.61 trillion yuan, and assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current accumulated broad fiscal deficit rate was 4.0%, close to that in 2022 [3][22]. Future Outlook - There is a risk of a decline in fiscal expenditure. After August, the year - on - year increase in government bond net financing is expected to turn negative. The scale of special bonds for project expenditure in the second half of the year is also expected to decline. Without incremental fiscal policies, fiscal expenditure intensity may decrease [4][25].

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Overview - National general public budget revenue for the first seven months reached 135,839 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [1] - The cumulative growth rate of national general public budget revenue turned positive for the first time this year, driven by a 2.6% increase in July, the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1] - Tax revenue for the first seven months was 110,933 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, but the decline is narrowing [1][2] Group 2: Tax Revenue Analysis - Major tax categories showed improvement, with domestic value-added tax increasing by 3%, domestic consumption tax by 2.1%, and personal income tax by 8.8% in the first seven months [2] - The decline in corporate income tax was reduced to 0.4%, indicating a better performance compared to the first half of the year [2] - Securities transaction stamp tax saw a significant increase of 62.5%, nearing 100 billion yuan, due to active stock market transactions [2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Tax Performance - Equipment manufacturing and modern service industries performed well in tax revenue, with specific sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment seeing a 33% increase [3] - Tax revenue from scientific research and technical services grew by 12.7%, while cultural and sports entertainment sectors increased by 4.1% [3] Group 4: Non-Tax Revenue and Government Fund Income - Non-tax revenue for the first seven months was 24,906 billion yuan, growing by 2%, significantly lower than the previous year's growth of 12% [4] - Government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, was 23,124 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%, with land use rights revenue dropping by 4.6% [5] Group 5: Fiscal Expenditure and Economic Support - National general public budget expenditure reached 160,737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with significant support for social welfare, education, and health spending [6] - Expenditure growth in social security and employment, education, and health care exceeded the average growth rate, indicating a focus on maintaining economic stability [6]

Revenue Insights - In July, the national general public budget revenue reached 2,027.3 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.7%[2] - Cumulative public finance revenue from January to July turned positive at 0.1% year-on-year, aligning with budget targets[2] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5% year-on-year, up from 1% previously, with personal income tax growing by 14%[2] Expenditure Trends - Public finance expenditure in July was 1,946.6 billion CNY, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase, up from 0.4%[3] - Cumulative expenditure growth for the first half of the year was 3.4%, still below the annual target of 4%[3] - Social security, education, and health expenditures grew by 13%, 5%, and 14% respectively in July, indicating a focus on social welfare[3] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue in July was 368.2 billion CNY, marking a 9% year-on-year increase, although the growth rate has slowed[4] - Government fund expenditure reached 801.4 billion CNY in July, with a significant year-on-year growth of 42%, although this was a decrease from June's 79%[5] Fiscal Balance and Outlook - The gap in broad fiscal revenue and expenditure expanded to 5.6 trillion CNY, but the shortfall is narrowing due to improved revenue[6] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds has supported increased government fund expenditures, with 1.1 trillion CNY in special bonds issued in June and July[5] - The broad fiscal deficit is expected to remain high in Q3, with a potential decline in Q4 as bond issuance slows down[6]

Core Insights - The national narrow fiscal revenue growth has turned positive, reflecting a stable economic recovery [2][3] Fiscal Revenue Overview - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [3] - The revenue growth rate has shown a gradual decline this year, but the decrease is narrowing, with July's revenue growth rate reaching a new high of 2.6% [3] - Tax revenue, which is a major component of fiscal revenue, totaled 110,933 billion yuan, down 0.3% year-on-year, but the decline is also narrowing [3][5] Tax Revenue Analysis - In July, tax revenue was 18,018 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5%, marking a continuous recovery since April [3][5] - The four major tax categories showed improvement, with domestic VAT increasing by 3%, domestic consumption tax by 2.1%, and personal income tax by 8.8% [5] - Despite a decline in corporate income tax by 0.4%, the reduction is significantly less than in the first half of the year [5] Non-Tax Revenue Insights - Non-tax revenue for the first seven months was 24,906 billion yuan, growing by 2%, which is significantly lower than the previous year's growth of 12% [6] - Government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, saw a decline, but the decrease is narrowing due to increased competition for quality land in core cities [6] Fiscal Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure reached 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, supporting economic stability [7] - Social welfare, education, and health expenditures grew by 9.8%, 5.7%, and 5.3% respectively, surpassing the average growth rate [7] - Government fund budget expenditure increased significantly by 31.7% to 54,287 billion yuan, directed towards major project construction and new sectors [8]

Group 1 - The overall fiscal revenue is recovering, supported by increased government bond issuance, while fiscal expenditure remains robust [1][6] - In the first seven months of the year, the national general public budget revenue reached 135839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1% [2] - The tax revenue for the same period was 110933 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.3% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing [2][4] Group 2 - The growth rate of tax revenue has not kept pace with economic growth, which was 5.3% in the first half of the year [2][3] - Major tax categories showed improvement, with domestic value-added tax increasing by 3%, domestic consumption tax by 2.1%, and personal income tax by 8.8% [4] - Non-tax revenue grew by 2% to 24906 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's growth of 12% [5] Group 3 - Government fund budget revenue was 23124 billion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue declining by 4.6% [6] - Fiscal expenditure for the first seven months was 160737 billion yuan, up 3.4%, with social security and education spending growing above average [6][7] - Government fund budget expenditure surged by 31.7% to 54287 billion yuan, primarily directed towards major project construction [7]

Revenue Performance - In May 2025, the national general public budget revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from April's 1.9%[1] - The broad fiscal revenue in May saw a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, slowing down by 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - Tax revenue increased by 0.6% year-on-year in May, down from 1.9% in April, while non-tax revenue fell by 2.2% compared to a growth of 1.7% in April[3] Expenditure Trends - In May, the national general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 3.2 percentage points from April's 5.8%[4] - Cumulative general public budget expenditure from January to May reached 38.0% of the annual budget, exceeding the average of 37.4% over the past five years[5] - Infrastructure-related expenditures in May decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, a decline of 9.9 percentage points from the previous month[6] Government Fund Insights - Government fund revenue in May fell by 8.1% year-on-year, a significant drop of 16.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income[7] - The land transfer income in May decreased by 14.6% year-on-year, a sharp decline from April's growth of 4.3%[8] - Government fund expenditure in May grew by 8.8% year-on-year, but this was a significant decrease from April's 44.7% growth rate[9]