证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 20 年 月 日 固定收益点评 财政收支改善，发力继续前置——7 月财政数据点评 7 月财政收入边际改善，财政支出维持较高增速。收入端，加总一般公共 预算收入和政府债基金收入，7 月广义财政收入当月同比 0.0%，较今年 此前增速有回升。支出端，7 月广义财政支出同比增速 12.1%，环比回落， 但增速仍较高。 收入端，7 月一般预算收入增速提升且结构改善，政府性基金收入维持正 增长，持续性有待观察。2025 年 7 月，一般公共预算收入当月同比 2.65% （前值-0.3%），税收收入同比 5.0%（（前值 1.0%），非税收入同比-12.93% （前值-3.7%），财政收入结构上有改善。7 月，政府性基金收入当月同比 8.9%（前值 20.8%），考虑到土地成交与纳入政府性基金收入存在时滞， 以及当前下游房地产投资增速持续偏弱，持续性有待进一步观察。 财政收入的改善主要来源于税收收入，增值税和企业所得税对税收增长的 贡献较多。7 月税收同比 5.0%，四大税种表现均较优，国内增值税同比 4.3%，消费税同比 5.4%，企业所得税同比 ...

全国狭义财政收入由负转正，折射经济稳中向好。 8月19日，财政部披露今年前7个月财政收支情况。1~7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增 长0.1%。 今年以来全国一般公共预算收入增速出现下滑，不过降幅逐步缩窄，随着7月份收入增幅（2.6%）创下 年内新高，带动全国一般公共预算收入累计增速首次实现由负转正。 近几个月税收收入保持增长，折射经济运行向好。不过总体来看税收收入累计增速依然低于经济增速 （上半年经济增速为5.3%）。 财政部数据显示，今年前7个月全国非税收入24906亿元，同比增长2%。这一增幅明显低于去年同期数 据（12%）。 除了一般公共预算收入外，以地方卖地收入为主的政府性基金收入也是广义财政收入重要的组成部分。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖近日公开表示，受多重因素影响，7月份部分经济指标有所波动，但主要 指标累计增速保持总体平稳，就业物价总体稳定，经济平稳运行态势没有改变。 税收收入方面，今年前7个月，全国税收收入110933亿元，同比下降0.3%，这一降幅持续缩窄。其中7 月份，全国税收收入18018亿元，同比增长5%，月度增幅自4月份由负转正后持续回升。 对于税收增速与经济增速 ...

Revenue Insights - In July, the national general public budget revenue reached 2,027.3 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.7%[2] - Cumulative public finance revenue from January to July turned positive at 0.1% year-on-year, aligning with budget targets[2] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5% year-on-year, up from 1% previously, with personal income tax growing by 14%[2] Expenditure Trends - Public finance expenditure in July was 1,946.6 billion CNY, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase, up from 0.4%[3] - Cumulative expenditure growth for the first half of the year was 3.4%, still below the annual target of 4%[3] - Social security, education, and health expenditures grew by 13%, 5%, and 14% respectively in July, indicating a focus on social welfare[3] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue in July was 368.2 billion CNY, marking a 9% year-on-year increase, although the growth rate has slowed[4] - Government fund expenditure reached 801.4 billion CNY in July, with a significant year-on-year growth of 42%, although this was a decrease from June's 79%[5] Fiscal Balance and Outlook - The gap in broad fiscal revenue and expenditure expanded to 5.6 trillion CNY, but the shortfall is narrowing due to improved revenue[6] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds has supported increased government fund expenditures, with 1.1 trillion CNY in special bonds issued in June and July[5] - The broad fiscal deficit is expected to remain high in Q3, with a potential decline in Q4 as bond issuance slows down[6]

Revenue Performance - In May 2025, the national general public budget revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from April's 1.9%[1] - The broad fiscal revenue in May saw a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, slowing down by 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - Tax revenue increased by 0.6% year-on-year in May, down from 1.9% in April, while non-tax revenue fell by 2.2% compared to a growth of 1.7% in April[3] Expenditure Trends - In May, the national general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 3.2 percentage points from April's 5.8%[4] - Cumulative general public budget expenditure from January to May reached 38.0% of the annual budget, exceeding the average of 37.4% over the past five years[5] - Infrastructure-related expenditures in May decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, a decline of 9.9 percentage points from the previous month[6] Government Fund Insights - Government fund revenue in May fell by 8.1% year-on-year, a significant drop of 16.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income[7] - The land transfer income in May decreased by 14.6% year-on-year, a sharp decline from April's growth of 4.3%[8] - Government fund expenditure in May grew by 8.8% year-on-year, but this was a significant decrease from April's 44.7% growth rate[9]

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 5 月财政收入增速小幅回踩。公共财政收入同比、税收收入同比分别回落至 0.1% （前值 1.9% ）、 0.6% （前值 1.9% ），但 仍位于正值区间，强于一季度表现。非税收入同比 -2.2% ，为 2024 年以来首次转负。应与财政收入对非税收入的依赖有所减轻有关， 今年预算对非税收入增长目标有明显下调 （目标增速 -14.2% ）。前 5 个月公共财政收入累计同比 -0.3% ，距离年初目标差值（ 0.37 个百分点）较前期有所收窄。 第二， 分税种来看，国内增值税表现较好，累计同比 2.4% ，或与工业企业利润增速好转有关；个人所得税表现较好，累计同比涨幅 扩大至 8.2% （去年年度为 -1.7% ），与低基数、汇算清缴、二手房交易较为活跃、股市年内表现较好背景下部分股东减持等因素有 关。消费税表现中性，和今年较高的社零增速有一定直观上的反差，主要是消费税中烟酒车油等占比较高，其中前两者增速不快；汽车 零售辆增速较快，但由于降价，零售额增速并不快。税收收入的主要拖累项一是外贸环节相关税种， ...

2025.06. 21 本文字数：1590，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 6月20日，财政部公布2025年1—5月财政收支情况，总体看财政收入平稳，财政支出保持一定扩张 力度，以落实积极财政政策，扩大总需求，推动经济平稳运行。 从财政收入端来看，财政部数据显示，1—5月，全国一般公共预算收入96623亿元，同比下降 0.3%。这一降幅较前4个月（-0.4%）略微缩窄。全国政府性基金预算收入15483亿元，同比下降 6.9%。这一降幅较前4个月（-6.7%）略微扩大。 全国一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成，且以前者为主。税收收入又被称之为经济"晴雨 表"。 财政部数据显示，今年前5个月全国一般公共预算收入中，全国税收收入79156亿元，同比下降 1.6%，这一降幅较前4个月（-2.1%）有小幅缩窄。 导致今年以来税收收入下滑有多重因素。首先，部分企业经营困难，利润下滑，导致第二大税种企业 所得税收入下滑。 财政部数据显示，今年前5个月企业所得税收入（21826亿元）同比下降2.5%。不过今年以来，规模 以上工业企业利润总额同比增速由负转正，企业所得税收入降幅持续缩窄。 其次，房地产市场 ...

报告摘要 第一， 4 月狭义财政收支仍然分化，但趋势有所弥合，主要源自税收收入的改善。 4 月一般公共预算收入同比增速上行至 1.9% ，其中税收收入同比显著提升 4.1 个百分点至 1.9% ，为今年以来首次由负转正，与同期经济表现相吻合。不过今年前 4 个月税收累计同比为 -2.1% ，降幅较一季度缩窄但尚未转正；其中企业所得 税累计同比为 -3.1% ，低 PPI 是拖累因素之一。 广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 第二， 支出方面呈更加积极的特征，受普通国债发行前置和税收好转的带动，狭义财政支出增速进一步走高， 4 月当月同比 5.8% ， 1-4 月累计同比 4.6% ，已超 全年支出目标增速 4.4% ； 1-4 月狭义财政支出进度 31.5% ，为近年来仅次于 2019 年的次高水平。从 4 月当月主要带动项来看，有稳定微观主体的支出，比如社 保就业、教育等；也有主动形成投资、带动增长动能的支出，比如交通运输。 第三， 再广义财政收入端， 4 月政府性基金收入增速也是今年以来首次同比由负转正。从土地高频数据来看这一情况属于预期之中。 1- ...

东方金诚宏观研究 东方金诚宏观研究 一季度财政收入表现偏弱，财政支出力度大幅提升 —— 2025 年 3 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：财政部公布数据显示，2025 年 3 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.3%， 1-2 月为下降 1.6%；3 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 5.7%，1-2 月为增长 3.4%；1-3 月全国政府性基金收入累计同比下降 11.0%，1-2 月为下降 10.7%；1-3 月全国政府性基金 支出累计同比增长 11.1%，1-2 月为增长 1.2%。 主要观点：尽管 3 月当月财政收入增速有所改善，但一季度财政收入端整体表现仍偏 弱，其中，一般公共预算收入累计同比下降 1.1%，低于去年全年累计增速；一季度政府性 基金收入同比下降 11.0%，主要受国有土地出让金收入同比降幅扩大拖累，背后是土地市 场持续低迷。从支出端来看，一季度广义财政支出累计同比增长 10.1%，其中，一般公共 预算支出同比增长 4.2%，主要源于今年年初政府债券发行提速，充实了可用财政资金。同 时，今年一季度新增专项债发行量同比高增，加之土地出让收入安排的支出同比降幅收窄， 拉动政府性基金 ...

Revenue Performance - In January-February 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, slightly below the annual revenue budget target by 0.1%[5] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[5] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, but this was a significant drop of 83 percentage points from the previous month[5] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid expenditure pace[5] - Social welfare and employment expenditures rose by 5.4%, reflecting a focus on social security and health spending[5] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with central government fund expenditure soaring by 74.2%, contrasting with a mere 0.6% increase at the local level[5] Future Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing the deficit ratio and expenditure intensity, with plans for special bond issuance to accelerate spending[5] - There is an emphasis on supporting domestic demand and consumption, particularly in social security and employment sectors[5] - The central government has reserved sufficient tools and policy space to potentially introduce incremental policies throughout the year based on changing internal and external conditions[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 2025 fiscal budget proposal, highlighting a shift towards a more proactive fiscal policy with an emphasis on flexibility in deficit targets and a focus on key areas such as technology, security, and public welfare [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The 2025 fiscal budget sets a deficit rate of "around 4%", allowing for potential adjustments mid-year, which is a departure from the rigid numerical targets used in previous years [1]. - The budget reflects a more pragmatic approach to nominal GDP growth estimates, revising the implicit nominal GDP growth rate down from 7.4% in 2024 to 4.9% in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Spending Focus - The fiscal spending for 2025 will increasingly target technology, security, and public welfare, with notable increases in allocations for education, diplomacy, national defense, and scientific research [2]. - In contrast, spending related to infrastructure, rural community development, and transportation is expected to decrease in importance [2]. Group 3: Revenue Adjustments - The budget anticipates a significant reduction in non-tax revenue, with a projected year-on-year decline of 14.2%, reflecting a strategy to lessen reliance on unsustainable revenue sources [3]. - Tax revenue expectations remain high, with positive growth targets set for most tax categories, excluding specific taxes like the tonnage tax on ships and vehicle purchase tax [3]. Group 4: Debt Issuance - The central government's bond issuance is projected to rise, with central government bonds accounting for 56.2% of total government bond issuance, marking a shift where central debt issuance surpasses local [5]. - This indicates a greater responsibility for counter-cyclical fiscal adjustments being placed on the central government [5]. Group 5: Challenges in Fund Revenue - The budget acknowledges potential difficulties in meeting government fund revenue targets due to the ongoing challenges in the real estate market and declining land use rights revenue [6].