1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fiscal situation in 2025 presents challenges that will continue into 2026. Greater fiscal expansion is needed to ensure the effectiveness of the fiscal policy. If government bond supply does not significantly exceed expectations, fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2026 are expected to remain under pressure [1][5][25] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Fiscal Revenue in 2025 - Fiscal revenue growth was -1.7% in 2025, still lower than the budgeted 0.1%, indicating continued pressure on fiscal revenue. Non-tax revenue growth slowed down, with a year-on-year decline of 11.3%, while tax revenue growth increased by 0.8% year-on-year. Some taxes, such as personal income tax (up 11.5% year-on-year) and stamp duty (up 24.6% year-on-year), showed significant growth, but whether this high growth can continue in 2026 remains to be seen. Some tax growth may improve in 2026. Export tax rebates and value-added and consumption taxes on imported goods dragged down the tax growth rate in 2025 by -1.2% and -0.5% respectively, but these are expected to improve in 2026. Government fund revenue continued to face pressure, with an actual growth rate of -7.0% in 2025 [2] - The overall revenue of the first and second accounts fell short of expectations in 2025. The budgeted growth rate of fiscal revenue was 0.1%, while the actual growth rate was -1.7%. The budgeted growth rate of government fund revenue was 0.7%, and the actual growth rate was -7.0% [8] Fiscal Expenditure in 2025 - The fiscal expenditure rhythm was slow, and the growth rate was lower than the budget. The actual growth rate of fiscal expenditure was 1.0%, compared with the budgeted 4.4%. The actual growth rate of government fund expenditure was 11.3%, compared with the budgeted 23.1% [3] - The pressure of rigid expenditure increased, and the growth rate of infrastructure expenditure slowed down significantly. The overall fiscal expenditure increased by 1.0% year-on-year, while social, scientific, cultural, and educational expenditures increased by 4.5% year-on-year, and debt interest payments increased by 4.8% year-on-year, both significantly higher than the overall fiscal expenditure growth rate. Infrastructure expenditure decreased by 6.6% year-on-year [3] - The actual deficit increased moderately, and the scale of carry - over and surplus funds changed little compared with the previous year. The actual fiscal deficit in 2025 was 7.14 trillion yuan, accounting for 5.1% of GDP, with the actual deficit rate increasing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous year, significantly lower than the increase in the budgeted deficit rate from 3% to 4%. The estimated balance of the first account was about 580.5 billion yuan, with a small increase compared with previous years. The balance of the second account was about 683.0 billion yuan, a slight decrease from 962.0 billion yuan in the same period last year [4] Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal challenges remain in 2026, and greater fiscal expansion is needed to ensure the effectiveness of the overall fiscal policy. If the budgeted deficit rate in 2026 is 4%, with about 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds and 4.5 trillion yuan in special bonds, and assuming an additional 50 billion yuan in special treasury bonds for capital replenishment, the expected increase in government bonds this year is 1 trillion yuan, a decrease from 2.9 trillion yuan in 2025, which will limit the scope of fiscal policy implementation in 2026 [5]

Core Insights - The overall fiscal operation remains stable, with public budget revenue showing low growth trends in the first 11 months of the year [1][2] Group 1: Public Budget Revenue - National general public budget revenue for the first 11 months is approximately 20.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, consistent with the previous 10 months [1] - Tax revenue, considered an economic barometer, accounts for about 16.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] - In November, tax revenue reached approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, growing by 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Major tax categories, including domestic VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, and personal income tax, have shown stable growth rates of 3.9%, 1.7%, 2.5%, and 11.5% respectively [1] - The significant growth in personal income tax is attributed to an active capital market and increased income from dividends [1] Group 2: Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue for the first 11 months is approximately 3.6 trillion yuan, showing a decline of 3.7% year-on-year [2] - The decline is partly due to previous high growth rates leading to a high base and increased regulatory scrutiny on penalty and confiscation revenues [2] Group 3: Government Fund Revenue - Government fund budget revenue, primarily from land sales, is about 4 trillion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, with a more significant decline compared to the previous 10 months [3] - Revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights is approximately 2.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% [3] Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure - General public budget expenditure for the first 11 months is around 24.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [3] - Government fund budget expenditure is approximately 9.2 trillion yuan, increasing by 13.7% year-on-year [3] - Expenditure on social security, health, and education has grown by 8.1%, 4.7%, and 4.4% respectively, all exceeding the average expenditure growth rate [3] Group 5: Fiscal Policy Measures - To maintain fiscal spending intensity and stabilize economic operations, the Ministry of Finance allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits for enhancing local fiscal capacity and effective investment [4] - In the fourth quarter, 500 billion yuan of new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal operation in China remains stable, with a low growth trend in fiscal revenue for the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting a steady economic performance despite challenges in certain sectors [3][4]. Revenue Summary - National general public budget revenue for the first 11 months reached approximately 20.1 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, consistent with the previous 10 months, while November's revenue remained flat compared to the same month last year [3]. - Tax revenue, a key economic indicator, totaled about 16.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. November's tax revenue was approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year [3]. - Major tax categories showed stable growth: domestic value-added tax increased by 3.9%, corporate income tax by 1.7%, domestic consumption tax by 2.5%, and personal income tax by 11.5%, driven by a vibrant capital market [3]. - However, real estate-related tax revenues declined, with contract tax down 14.3% and land value-added tax down 17.3% [3]. Non-Tax Revenue Summary - Non-tax revenue for the first 11 months was approximately 3.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%, attributed to stricter regulations on confiscated income and limited growth potential from previous asset mobilization efforts [4]. Government Fund Revenue Summary - Government fund budget revenue, primarily from land sales, was about 4 trillion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer income decreasing by 10.7% [5]. Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure for the first 11 months was approximately 24.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%. Government fund budget expenditure was about 9.2 trillion yuan, up 13.7% [6]. - Expenditure growth has slowed overall, but spending on social security, health, and education has increased by 8.1%, 4.7%, and 4.4% respectively, all above the average expenditure growth rate [6]. - To maintain fiscal spending strength, the Ministry of Finance allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local financial capacity and effective investment, with nearly all of this funding now issued [6].

Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal operation in China remains stable, with a low growth trend in fiscal revenue for the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting the economic situation [3]. Revenue Analysis - National general public budget revenue for the first 11 months is approximately 20.1 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, consistent with the previous 10 months, while November's revenue remained flat compared to the same period last year [4]. - Tax revenue, considered an "economic barometer," reached about 16.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. November tax revenue was approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year [4]. - The four major tax categories showed stable growth: domestic VAT increased by 3.9%, corporate income tax by 1.7%, domestic consumption tax by 2.5%, and individual income tax by 11.5%. The rapid growth in individual income tax is attributed to an active capital market and increased income from dividends [4]. Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue for the first 11 months is about 3.6 trillion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year, likely due to stricter regulations on penalty income and limited room for growth in asset management [6]. Government Fund Revenue - Government fund budget revenue, primarily from land sales, is approximately 4 trillion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, with land transfer income decreasing by 10.7% [7]. Expenditure Analysis - General public budget expenditure for the first 11 months is about 24.9 trillion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year, while government fund budget expenditure is approximately 9.2 trillion yuan, increasing by 13.7% [7]. - Expenditure growth has slowed overall, but spending on social security, health, and education has increased by 8.1%, 4.7%, and 4.4% respectively, all above the average expenditure growth rate [7]. Fiscal Policy Measures - To maintain fiscal spending intensity and stabilize economic operations, the Ministry of Finance allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits for effective investment, with nearly all of this amount issued [8]. - In the fourth quarter, 500 billion yuan of new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of about 7 trillion yuan [8].

Core Viewpoint - The overall fiscal performance in China for the first eleven months of 2025 shows stable growth in major tax categories, despite low growth in total fiscal revenue and challenges in the real estate sector [2][3]. Revenue Performance - Total general public budget revenue reached approximately 20.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, consistent with the previous ten months [2] - Tax revenue, a key economic indicator, amounted to about 16.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [2] - In November, tax revenue was approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, showing a growth of 2.8% compared to the same month last year [2] - Major tax categories, including domestic VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, and personal income tax, experienced stable growth rates of 3.9%, 1.7%, 2.5%, and 11.5% respectively [2] - The significant growth in personal income tax is attributed to an active capital market and increased income from dividends [2] Real Estate Impact - The real estate sector continues to negatively impact related tax revenues, with contract tax declining by 14.3% and land value-added tax decreasing by 17.3% year-on-year [3] Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue for the first eleven months was approximately 3.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.7% [4] - The decline in non-tax revenue is linked to stricter regulations on penalty income and limited growth potential from previously enhanced asset management [4] Government Fund Revenue - Government fund budget revenue, primarily from land sales, was about 4 trillion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, with land sale income decreasing by 10.7% [5] - The decline in land sale revenue has widened compared to previous months, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market [5] Fiscal Expenditure - General public budget expenditure reached approximately 24.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [5] - Government fund budget expenditure was about 9.2 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase of 13.7% [5] - Expenditure on social security, health, and education has outpaced the average growth rate, with increases of 8.1%, 4.7%, and 4.4% respectively [5] Policy Measures - To maintain fiscal spending strength and stabilize economic operations, the Ministry of Finance allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits for effective investment [6] - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools has been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [6]

Revenue Insights - In the first ten months of 2025, total fiscal revenue reached 18.65 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[1] - October fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.16%[1] - Tax revenue in October was 2.07 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%[3] Expenditure Trends - Total fiscal expenditure for the first ten months was 22.58 trillion, up 2% year-on-year[1] - October fiscal expenditure was 1.78 trillion, reflecting a significant decline of 9.78% year-on-year[1] - The expenditure progress for October accounted for only 6% of the annual total, below the seasonal average of 6.5%[9] Non-Tax Revenue and Land Sales - Non-tax revenue in October was 191.4 billion, down 33% year-on-year, marking a five-year low[3] - Government fund revenue in October was 375.6 billion, a decrease of 18.4% year-on-year[10] - Land transfer revenue fell to 268 billion, down 27.3% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the decline in government fund revenue[10] Future Outlook - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be proactive and expansionary, with a projected deficit rate of around 4%[2] - Total fiscal expenditure for 2026 is anticipated to reach 43 trillion, an increase of 1.13 trillion compared to 2025[2] - The focus will shift towards "investment in people" alongside traditional infrastructure investments[4]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy has shown stable performance in 2023, leading to a recovery in fiscal revenue, supported by proactive fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [1][11]. Fiscal Revenue and Taxation - In the first three quarters of 2023, the broad fiscal revenue reached 19.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 0.4%, marking the first positive growth in fiscal revenue this year [1]. - The general public budget revenue was 16.39 trillion yuan, with tax revenue at 13.27 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.5% and 0.7% respectively [2]. - Tax revenue growth turned positive in recent months, with September showing an 8.7% year-on-year increase, the highest for the year, driven by improved corporate performance and active capital market transactions [2][3]. Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue in the general public budget decreased by 0.4% year-on-year to 312.12 billion yuan, significantly lower than the previous year's growth of 13.5% [4]. - The decline in non-tax revenue is attributed to a high base from previous years and stricter regulations on administrative penalties [4][7]. Government Bonds and Fiscal Expenditure - The net financing of government bonds reached 1.146 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 428 billion yuan year-on-year [10]. - Fiscal expenditure for the same period was 20.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with significant allocations towards social security, education, and healthcare [11]. - The government has accelerated the issuance of special bonds to support major projects, with a total expenditure of 4.21 trillion yuan from various bond types [14][15]. Real Estate and Land Revenue - The revenue from government funds, primarily from land sales, decreased by 0.5% year-on-year to 30.72 billion yuan, with land use rights revenue dropping by 4.2% [7][8]. - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have led to a narrowing decline in land sale revenues and related taxes [8]. Investment and Economic Stability - The introduction of new policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan aims to enhance project capital and stimulate total investment by approximately 4.8 trillion yuan [15]. - The fiscal policies are designed to support local governments in managing existing debts and facilitating economic recovery [15].

Core Insights - In September, national tax revenue increased by 8.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate of the year [1] - The overall fiscal revenue in the first three quarters reached 19.46 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 0.4%, indicating a recovery in fiscal income [2][3] - The growth in tax revenue is primarily driven by improved corporate performance and active capital market transactions [3] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - The general public budget revenue for the first three quarters was 16.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, while tax revenue reached 13.27 trillion yuan, growing by 0.7% [3] - Fiscal expenditure for the same period was 28.30 trillion yuan, up 7.9%, exceeding the economic growth rate of 5.2% [2] - Expenditure on social security and employment, education, and health care grew by 10%, 5.4%, and 4.7% respectively, reflecting a focus on social welfare [12] Tax Revenue Trends - Tax revenue growth has turned positive after being negative earlier in the year, with September's growth significantly higher than August's by 5.3 percentage points [3] - The capital market's performance has positively influenced tax revenue, with securities transaction stamp duty increasing by 110.5% year-on-year [3] - The decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) has also contributed to the recent tax revenue growth [4] Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue in the general public budget decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, contrasting with a 13.5% increase in the previous year [5] - The decline in non-tax revenue is attributed to a high base from previous years and stricter regulation on administrative penalties [5][9] Government Fund Revenue - Government fund revenue, primarily from land sales, was 30.72 trillion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue decreasing by 4.2% [10] - The decline in land sales revenue is expected to narrow due to policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [10] Debt Financing and Investment - Net financing from government bonds reached 1.146 trillion yuan, an increase of 428 billion yuan year-on-year [11] - The government has accelerated the issuance of special bonds to support major projects, with a total expenditure of 4.21 trillion yuan from various bond types [15] - New policy financial tools worth 500 billion yuan have been introduced to enhance project capital, expected to drive total project investment by 4.8 trillion yuan [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of fiscal revenue and expenditure in August, highlighting a slight year-on-year increase in tax revenue while non-tax revenue continues to decline, indicating a need for sustained economic growth policies [1][4][25]. Fiscal Revenue - In August, fiscal revenue increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with tax revenue rising by 3.4% and non-tax revenue decreasing by 3.8%, continuing the trend of stronger tax revenue since May [1][5]. - Cumulative fiscal revenue from January to August showed a slight increase of 0.3%, slightly exceeding the initial budget target of 0.1% [1][6]. - The performance of corporate income tax, personal income tax, and domestic value-added tax in August was strong, with year-on-year increases of 33.4%, 9.7%, and 4.4%, respectively [2][11]. Fiscal Expenditure - Fiscal expenditure in August showed a decline, with spending growth lower than the average level for the same period in previous years, primarily due to a slowdown in infrastructure-related expenditures [3][16]. - Social security and employment expenditures maintained a high growth rate of 10.9% year-on-year in August, contributing positively to overall expenditure growth [3][16]. - Cumulative fiscal expenditure from January to August increased by 3.1%, which is still below the initial budget target of 4.4% [17]. Broader Fiscal Context - Land revenue growth further declined by 12.9 percentage points to -5.8% in August, reflecting a significant drop in land sales [21]. - The overall performance of government fund income from January to August showed a cumulative decline of 1.4%, indicating challenges in meeting the annual growth target of 0.7% [21][25]. - The article emphasizes the need for new policies to stabilize growth, particularly in the context of declining contributions from the real estate sector [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, fiscal revenue improved marginally, and fiscal expenditure maintained a relatively high growth rate. However, there is a risk of a decline in fiscal expenditure in the future [1][4]. - Fiscal revenue improvement mainly came from tax revenue, with VAT and corporate income tax contributing more to tax growth. Fiscal expenditure relied more on government debt, and the broad fiscal deficit rate was at a relatively high level [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Revenue Side - **General Public Budget Revenue**: In July 2025, the monthly general public budget revenue increased by 2.65% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.3%), with tax revenue up 5.0% (previous value: 1.0%) and non - tax revenue down 12.93% (previous value: - 3.7%), showing an improved revenue structure [1][11]. - **Tax Revenue Composition**: In July, the four major taxes all performed well. Domestic VAT increased by 4.3% year - on - year, consumption tax by 5.4%, corporate income tax by 6.4%, and individual income tax by 13.9%. VAT and corporate income tax contributed more to the year - on - year tax growth. Export tax rebates decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, and real - estate - related taxes decreased by 3.8%. Vehicle purchase tax decreased by 13.8%. In June, stamp duty and securities trading stamp duty increased by 24.2% and 125.4% respectively [2][13]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year (previous value: 20.8%). Considering the time lag between land transactions and government fund revenue and the weak real - estate investment growth, its sustainability needs further observation [1][17]. - **Accumulated Revenue**: From January to July, the accumulated general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year, in line with the annual budget, but the structure was poor. Tax revenue growth was - 0.3%, lower than the budgeted 3.7%, while non - tax revenue growth was 2.0%, higher than the budgeted - 14.2%. Government bond fund revenue decreased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the narrowing decline's sustainability to be observed [23]. Expenditure Side - **General Public Budget Expenditure**: In July, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.04% year - on - year (previous value: 0.38%), showing a rebound in expenditure growth [2][19]. - **Government Fund Expenditure**: In July, government fund expenditure increased by 42.4% year - on - year, maintaining a high growth rate. This may be related to the positive growth of government fund revenue in July and the accelerated issuance of new special bonds since the end of June [2][19]. - **Expenditure Structure**: In July, traditional infrastructure expenditure continued to contract, with an overall infrastructure - related fiscal expenditure growth rate of - 3.8% (previous value: - 8.8%). Expenditure on social security increased by 13.1%, health by 14.2%, and debt service by 8.9% [3][19]. - **Accumulated Expenditure**: From January to July, fiscal expenditure growth was 3.4%, slightly lower than the annual budgeted 4.4%. Government fund expenditure growth was 31.7%, higher than the budgeted 23.1%, indicating relatively front - loaded spending [23]. Fiscal Deficit - As of July, fiscal expenditure relied more on government debt, and the broad fiscal deficit rate was at a relatively high level. From January to July, the general budget fiscal deficit was 2.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.5 trillion yuan. The accumulated broad fiscal deficit was 5.61 trillion yuan, and assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current accumulated broad fiscal deficit rate was 4.0%, close to that in 2022 [3][22]. Future Outlook - There is a risk of a decline in fiscal expenditure. After August, the year - on - year increase in government bond net financing is expected to turn negative. The scale of special bonds for project expenditure in the second half of the year is also expected to decline. Without incremental fiscal policies, fiscal expenditure intensity may decrease [4][25].