证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 20 年 月 日 固定收益点评 财政收支改善，发力继续前置——7 月财政数据点评 7 月财政收入边际改善，财政支出维持较高增速。收入端，加总一般公共 预算收入和政府债基金收入，7 月广义财政收入当月同比 0.0%，较今年 此前增速有回升。支出端，7 月广义财政支出同比增速 12.1%，环比回落， 但增速仍较高。 收入端，7 月一般预算收入增速提升且结构改善，政府性基金收入维持正 增长，持续性有待观察。2025 年 7 月，一般公共预算收入当月同比 2.65% （前值-0.3%），税收收入同比 5.0%（（前值 1.0%），非税收入同比-12.93% （前值-3.7%），财政收入结构上有改善。7 月，政府性基金收入当月同比 8.9%（前值 20.8%），考虑到土地成交与纳入政府性基金收入存在时滞， 以及当前下游房地产投资增速持续偏弱，持续性有待进一步观察。 财政收入的改善主要来源于税收收入，增值税和企业所得税对税收增长的 贡献较多。7 月税收同比 5.0%，四大税种表现均较优，国内增值税同比 4.3%，消费税同比 5.4%，企业所得税同比 ...

Revenue Insights - In July, the national general public budget revenue reached 2,027.3 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.7%[2] - Cumulative public finance revenue from January to July turned positive at 0.1% year-on-year, aligning with budget targets[2] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5% year-on-year, up from 1% previously, with personal income tax growing by 14%[2] Expenditure Trends - Public finance expenditure in July was 1,946.6 billion CNY, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase, up from 0.4%[3] - Cumulative expenditure growth for the first half of the year was 3.4%, still below the annual target of 4%[3] - Social security, education, and health expenditures grew by 13%, 5%, and 14% respectively in July, indicating a focus on social welfare[3] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue in July was 368.2 billion CNY, marking a 9% year-on-year increase, although the growth rate has slowed[4] - Government fund expenditure reached 801.4 billion CNY in July, with a significant year-on-year growth of 42%, although this was a decrease from June's 79%[5] Fiscal Balance and Outlook - The gap in broad fiscal revenue and expenditure expanded to 5.6 trillion CNY, but the shortfall is narrowing due to improved revenue[6] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds has supported increased government fund expenditures, with 1.1 trillion CNY in special bonds issued in June and July[5] - The broad fiscal deficit is expected to remain high in Q3, with a potential decline in Q4 as bond issuance slows down[6]

Revenue Performance - In May 2025, the national general public budget revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from April's 1.9%[1] - The broad fiscal revenue in May saw a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, slowing down by 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - Tax revenue increased by 0.6% year-on-year in May, down from 1.9% in April, while non-tax revenue fell by 2.2% compared to a growth of 1.7% in April[3] Expenditure Trends - In May, the national general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 3.2 percentage points from April's 5.8%[4] - Cumulative general public budget expenditure from January to May reached 38.0% of the annual budget, exceeding the average of 37.4% over the past five years[5] - Infrastructure-related expenditures in May decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, a decline of 9.9 percentage points from the previous month[6] Government Fund Insights - Government fund revenue in May fell by 8.1% year-on-year, a significant drop of 16.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income[7] - The land transfer income in May decreased by 14.6% year-on-year, a sharp decline from April's growth of 4.3%[8] - Government fund expenditure in May grew by 8.8% year-on-year, but this was a significant decrease from April's 44.7% growth rate[9]

2025.06. 21 本文字数：1590，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 6月20日，财政部公布2025年1—5月财政收支情况，总体看财政收入平稳，财政支出保持一定扩张 力度，以落实积极财政政策，扩大总需求，推动经济平稳运行。 从财政收入端来看，财政部数据显示，1—5月，全国一般公共预算收入96623亿元，同比下降 0.3%。这一降幅较前4个月（-0.4%）略微缩窄。全国政府性基金预算收入15483亿元，同比下降 6.9%。这一降幅较前4个月（-6.7%）略微扩大。 全国一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成，且以前者为主。税收收入又被称之为经济"晴雨 表"。 财政部数据显示，今年前5个月全国一般公共预算收入中，全国税收收入79156亿元，同比下降 1.6%，这一降幅较前4个月（-2.1%）有小幅缩窄。 导致今年以来税收收入下滑有多重因素。首先，部分企业经营困难，利润下滑，导致第二大税种企业 所得税收入下滑。 财政部数据显示，今年前5个月企业所得税收入（21826亿元）同比下降2.5%。不过今年以来，规模 以上工业企业利润总额同比增速由负转正，企业所得税收入降幅持续缩窄。 其次，房地产市场 ...

宏观研究/宏观点评 一、财政收入继续恢复，支出增速持续上升。1-4 月公共财政收入 累计同比-0.4 %（前值-1.1 %），公共财政支出累计同比 4.6 %（前值 4.2 %）；政府性基金收入累计同比-6.7 %（前值-11.0 %），政府性基金 支出累计同比 17.7 %（前值 11.1 %）。 二、政府性基金支出显著加速：1-4 月，政府性基金收入累计 12,586 亿元，同比-6.7 %（前值-11.0 %），其中国有土地使用权出让收入 9,340 亿元，同比-11.4 %（前值-15.9 %）；政府性基金支出累计 26,136 亿元， 同比 17.7 %（前值 11.1 %），其中国有土地使用权出让收入安排的支 出 13,647 亿元，同比-8.4 %（前值-11.0 %）。 三、公共财政支出结构：1-4 月公共财政支出 93,581 亿元。其中， 中央本级财政支出占比 13.1%，同比 9.0 %（前值 8.9 %）；地方财政支 出占比 86.9% ，同比 3.9 %（前值 3.6 %）。分项目看：1-4 月债务付息 支出累计同比 11.0 %（前值 18.0 %）；社会保障和就业支出累计同比 8 ...

报告摘要 第一， 4 月狭义财政收支仍然分化，但趋势有所弥合，主要源自税收收入的改善。 4 月一般公共预算收入同比增速上行至 1.9% ，其中税收收入同比显著提升 4.1 个百分点至 1.9% ，为今年以来首次由负转正，与同期经济表现相吻合。不过今年前 4 个月税收累计同比为 -2.1% ，降幅较一季度缩窄但尚未转正；其中企业所得 税累计同比为 -3.1% ，低 PPI 是拖累因素之一。 广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 第二， 支出方面呈更加积极的特征，受普通国债发行前置和税收好转的带动，狭义财政支出增速进一步走高， 4 月当月同比 5.8% ， 1-4 月累计同比 4.6% ，已超 全年支出目标增速 4.4% ； 1-4 月狭义财政支出进度 31.5% ，为近年来仅次于 2019 年的次高水平。从 4 月当月主要带动项来看，有稳定微观主体的支出，比如社 保就业、教育等；也有主动形成投资、带动增长动能的支出，比如交通运输。 第三， 再广义财政收入端， 4 月政府性基金收入增速也是今年以来首次同比由负转正。从土地高频数据来看这一情况属于预期之中。 1- ...

东方金诚宏观研究 东方金诚宏观研究 一季度财政收入表现偏弱，财政支出力度大幅提升 —— 2025 年 3 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：财政部公布数据显示，2025 年 3 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.3%， 1-2 月为下降 1.6%；3 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 5.7%，1-2 月为增长 3.4%；1-3 月全国政府性基金收入累计同比下降 11.0%，1-2 月为下降 10.7%；1-3 月全国政府性基金 支出累计同比增长 11.1%，1-2 月为增长 1.2%。 主要观点：尽管 3 月当月财政收入增速有所改善，但一季度财政收入端整体表现仍偏 弱，其中，一般公共预算收入累计同比下降 1.1%，低于去年全年累计增速；一季度政府性 基金收入同比下降 11.0%，主要受国有土地出让金收入同比降幅扩大拖累，背后是土地市 场持续低迷。从支出端来看，一季度广义财政支出累计同比增长 10.1%，其中，一般公共 预算支出同比增长 4.2%，主要源于今年年初政府债券发行提速，充实了可用财政资金。同 时，今年一季度新增专项债发行量同比高增，加之土地出让收入安排的支出同比降幅收窄， 拉动政府性基金 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In March, national public budget revenue was 16,333 billion yuan, while expenditure was 27,719 billion yuan[2] - March fiscal revenue showed a slight recovery with a growth of +0.25%, but Q1 revenue was still down 1.1% year-on-year[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 2.2% in March, with a cumulative decline of 3.5% in Q1, falling short of the annual target of +3.7%[3] Fiscal Policy and Spending - Public fiscal expenditure in March grew by 5.7% year-on-year, with Q1 expenditure growth at 4.2%, slightly above the annual budget target of 4%[4] - The expenditure progress for Q1 was approximately 24.5% of the annual target, consistent with 2024 levels[4] - Social security and education expenditures increased by 9% and 8% respectively in March, while technology spending decreased by 4.8%[4] Government Fund and Debt Issuance - Government fund revenue in March was 2,866 billion yuan, down 12%, with land transfer revenue declining by 16.5%[4] - Government fund expenditure in March was 8,411 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28% year-on-year[4] - A total of 9,603 billion yuan in special bonds were issued in Q1, with issuance pace faster than in 2024 but slower than in 2022 and 2023[4] Future Outlook and Risks - The need for accelerated fiscal spending is emphasized due to potential tariff impacts and economic uncertainties[5] - Expected measures include increased consumer support and tax refunds for export enterprises[5] - Risks include potential economic downturns and insufficient policy execution[5]

Revenue Performance - In January-February 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, slightly below the annual revenue budget target by 0.1%[4] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, but this was a decline of 83 percentage points from the previous month[4] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid expenditure pace[4] - Social welfare and employment expenditures rose by 5.4% year-on-year, driven by increased spending in social security and health sectors[4] - Infrastructure spending decreased by 5.6% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in urban community and agricultural water affairs expenditures[4] Fund and Policy Outlook - Government fund revenue fell by 10.7% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in land transfer income[4] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with central government fund expenditure surging by 74.2%, significantly outpacing local government growth of 0.6%[4] - The fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing the deficit ratio, enhancing expenditure intensity, and accelerating spending progress throughout the year[4]

Revenue Performance - In January-February 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, slightly below the annual revenue budget target by 0.1%[5] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[5] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, but this was a significant drop of 83 percentage points from the previous month[5] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, maintaining a rapid expenditure pace[5] - Social welfare and employment expenditures rose by 5.4%, reflecting a focus on social security and health spending[5] - Government fund expenditure increased by 1.2% year-on-year, with central government fund expenditure soaring by 74.2%, contrasting with a mere 0.6% increase at the local level[5] Future Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to focus on increasing the deficit ratio and expenditure intensity, with plans for special bond issuance to accelerate spending[5] - There is an emphasis on supporting domestic demand and consumption, particularly in social security and employment sectors[5] - The central government has reserved sufficient tools and policy space to potentially introduce incremental policies throughout the year based on changing internal and external conditions[5]