7月9日晚间，牧原股份发布了2025年上半年业绩预告。 根据公告，牧原股份今年上半年净利润预计在105亿-110亿元之间，同比增长达924.60%-973.39%；归属 于上市公司目公司的利润将达到102亿-107亿元，同比增长1129.97%-1190.26%。 | 证券代码:002714 | 证券简称:牧原股份 公告编号:2025-069 | | --- | --- | | 债券代码:127045 | 债券简称:牧原转债 | | | | | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 净利润 | 盗利:105.00 亿元-110.00 亿元 | 盈利: 10.25 亿元 | | | 比上年同期增长:924.60%-973.39% | | | 归属于上市公司股 | 盈利:102.00 亿元-107.00 亿元 | 盈利:8.29 亿元 | | 东的净利润 | 比上年同期增长:1,129.97%-1.190.26% | | | 扣除非经常性损益 | 盈利:106.00 亿元-111.00 亿元 | 盈利: 10.78 亿元 | | 后的净利润 | 比上年同期增长:882. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pig price is expected to maintain a central level above 15 yuan/kg in 2025 due to limited supply growth and cautious breeding practices [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a supply gap, with a notable increase in piglet losses due to a virus mutation, which is expected to drive up pig prices in Q3 2025 [1] - Recent government policies aim to regulate the pig industry, including measures to curb low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1][2] Group 2 - The pig price is under significant downward pressure in H2 2025, but multiple government policies are expected to support price increases and alleviate CPI pressure [2] - The overall investment logic in the pig sector is improving due to supply contraction and macroeconomic catalysts, suggesting a positive outlook for investment [2] - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index reflects the performance of listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and breeding, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 65.27% of the index [2]

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，从行业层面来看，24年母猪产能增长缓慢，对应25年生猪供 给增幅相对有限，猪价有望好于市场预期，而从上市猪企25Q1业绩拆分来看，行业不同主体商品猪养 殖成本方差仍较大，优质猪企有望凭借低成本优势获取可观利润、持续修复资产负债表。从公司层面来 看，对应2025年出栏量，主要上市猪企头均市值已回落至历史底部水平，优质猪企配置价值凸显。标的 选择方面，该行重点推荐成本优势明显、业绩兑现能力较强的牧原股份、温氏股份，建议关注神农集 团、东瑞股份等。 25Q1，主要上市猪企实现扭亏，主要原因在于：1)猪价表现淡季不淡;2)饲料价格继续下行以及生产效 率提升驱动行业成本继续优化;3)在仔猪盈利较好的背景下，上市猪企仔猪销售占比显著提升。25Q1， 16家上市猪企合计盈利82亿元，同比扭亏，实现经营性现金流131亿元，带动资产负债率继续下行0.2个 百分点至60%。而受制于对后市猪价的谨慎预期，主要上市猪企在建工程以及资本开支继续回落，同比 继续分别下降41%、25%。 风险提示：畜禽及粮食价格波动超预期，突发大规模不可控疾病，极端天气，重大食品安全事件，上市 公司销量/成本不达预 ...