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国投期货农产品日报-20251031
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 12:26
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Trend**: Douyi (★★★), Biao You (★★★) [1] - **Potential Upside**: Doupo, Caipo, Caiyou, Yumi (★☆☆) [1] - **Neutral**: Yidou, Shengzhu, Jidan (☆☆☆) [1] Core Views - The prices of some agricultural products are affected by factors such as import and export policies, demand expectations, and supply conditions. For example, the prices of soybeans and related products are influenced by Sino - US trade relations, and the prices of rapeseed products are related to Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [2][3][6] - Some products face potential risks, such as the callback risk of oils and the potential inventory accumulation risk of Caiyou [4][6] - The supply and demand patterns of different agricultural products vary, which affects their price trends. For example, the supply of corn is abundant, and the demand for Caipo is expected to decline [7][6] Summary by Directory Soybeans - Douyi futures prices are slightly up, and the price is consolidating. Pay attention to the performance of imported soybeans and domestic soybean policies [2] - The Lianzhan 2601 contract is strong, with a 1.34% increase. Sino - US trade relations are easing, and pay attention to policy adjustments on US soybean imports and potential long - buying opportunities [3] - US soybean prices are rising due to improved demand expectations. Domestic soybean crushing profit is in deficit, and pay attention to the callback risk of oils and the performance of palm oil supply and Sino - US soybean trade [4] Rapeseed Products - Domestic rapeseed futures prices are down, while overseas oilseed prices are relatively strong. Pay attention to the marginal changes in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Caipo may be boosted by oilseed futures prices, and Caiyou may face inventory accumulation risks [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures rose 0.8% in the afternoon. Northeast corn supply is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. Sino - US relations are easing, and pay attention to corn import conditions. Dalian corn may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7] Livestock Products - The spot price of pigs is mostly down, and the futures price is weak. It is expected that there may be a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] - The spot price of eggs is stable with a slight increase, the futures price fluctuates, and pay attention to vegetable price fluctuations and the opportunity to short at high levels in the fourth quarter [9]