中信证券研报称，2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，尽管面临外部环境变化、内部结构调整，中国宏 观经济有望在政策支持下保持稳健复苏态势。结合当前经济形势，我们给出2026年宏观经济五大趋势性 预测。①趋势一：预计内需修复带动整体增长。②趋势二：预计投资从总量承压到结构优化。③趋势 三：中美关系料将缓和。我们预计2026年不会出现新的重大摩擦升级。随着中美关系边际缓和以及多元 化市场部署，预计明年中国出口增速将继续展现韧性，带动人民币整体温和升值。④趋势四：预计市场 多元化布局加速。我们认为2026年外部需求前景总体好于2025年。⑤趋势五："十五五"开局之年，预计 逆周期和跨周期调节力度将有所加大。 ...

| 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 强势 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 日元加息落地，短期流动性回升 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 海外双旦，国内产业压力大 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日金价冲高回落，但沪金仍处于 1000 元关口上方，纽约金处于 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 22 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 【棉花市场消息】 1、根美国农业部的统计，截至 2025 年 12 月 18 日当周，美陆地棉+皮马棉累计检验量为 242.44 万吨，占 年美棉产量预估值的 78%，同比慢 9%（2025/26 年度美棉产量预估值为 311 万吨）。美陆地棉检验量 236.65 吨，检验进度达 78.25%，同比降 9%；皮马棉检验量 5.78 万吨，检验进度达 70.3%，同比降 25%。周度可交割 比例在 83.7%，季度可交割比例在 82.7%，同比高 1 个百分点，季度可交割比例环比持稳。 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of State Rubio emphasizes the importance of maintaining a strong partnership with Japan while also seeking constructive ways to cooperate with the Chinese government, highlighting a balanced approach in U.S. foreign policy [2][4]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - Rubio acknowledges the existing tensions in U.S.-China relations and stresses the need for the U.S. to maintain balance in the Indo-Pacific region, recognizing China's status as a wealthy and powerful nation that plays a key role in geopolitical dynamics [5]. - He advocates for identifying areas of cooperation with China, suggesting that collaboration on global issues could lead to solutions, while ensuring that U.S. commitments to allies like Japan and South Korea remain intact [5]. Group 2: U.S.-Japan Relations - The statement comes in the context of Japan's Prime Minister's remarks regarding Taiwan, indicating the interconnectedness of U.S. relations with both Japan and China [4]. - Rubio's comments reflect a nuanced stance, aiming to reassure allies while also opening channels for dialogue with China, which contrasts with his historically hardline views [4]. Group 3: Current Diplomatic Climate - The current U.S.-China relationship is described as being in a phase of easing tensions, with recent agreements on tariff reductions and postponed export controls following a meeting between the leaders of both countries [5]. - Future visits are planned, with Trump expected to visit China in April 2026, followed by a visit from Chinese leaders to the U.S., indicating a potential thaw in relations [5].

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 18 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 【棉花市场消息】 1、海关数据初步显示 2025 年 11 月我国进口棉纱线（海关编码 5204-5207）量约 15 万吨，环比 10 月进口 量增加约 1 万吨，与 2024 年 11 月进口量相较同比增涨 3 万吨左右。2025 年 1-11 月棉纱线进口（海关编码 5204-5207）总计 133 万吨， 较去年 1-11 月进口量同比下降 4 万吨左右，两者差距进一步缩小。 2、 中国棉花进口：2025 年 11 月进口 12 万吨，同比（10.82 万吨）增 1.18 万吨，环比（8.9 万吨）增 3.1 万吨；2025 年 1-11 月累计进口 89 万吨，同比降 64%，同比（247.44 万吨）降 158.45 万吨；2025/26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic policy expectations are rising. China's imports and exports rebounded in November. Although there are still high - base disturbances, exports are expected to maintain strong resilience considering external positive factors such as the easing of Sino - US relations and global economic recovery [1]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly. The market's expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has also risen sharply, and attention should be paid to its impact on global liquidity [2]. - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on the relatively certain non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. Also, pay attention to the "anti - involution" facts in the black and chemical sectors, and the impact of Sino - US talks and weather on agricultural products [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic policy expectations are heating up. Multiple meetings have been held in November, including the State Council Executive Meeting, the price disorderly competition cost determination work symposium, and the power and energy storage battery industry manufacturing enterprise symposium [1]. - In October, China's export (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, with the previous value increasing by 8.3%. The import and export data were affected by the reduction of working days and pre - holiday rush exports. In November, China's official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2 month - on - month, and the high - tech manufacturing PMI has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months [1]. - In November, China's export (in US dollars) increased by 5.9% year - on - year, higher than expected. Exports to the EU increased by 14.8% year - on - year, exports to ASEAN increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and exports to the US declined further. Integrated circuits and automobiles were the main driving factors [1]. - In November, China's import (in US dollars) increased by 1.9% year - on - year, slightly rebounding from the previous month. Imports from the US and ASEAN decreased less, and imports from the EU decreased slightly year - on - year. Imports of mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products increased, as did the import volume of energy products except coal [1]. - On December 8, the A - share market rebounded strongly, with sectors such as computing hardware, commercial aerospace, storage chips, and securities leading the rise [1]. Fed and Global Market - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has jumped from less than 30% on November 20 to over 70%. Many Fed officials have released dovish signals, and some key figures support a December rate cut [2]. - In November, the US ADP employment decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The US ISM manufacturing index dropped from 48.7 to 48.2 [2]. - Trump hinted that economic advisor Hassett, who tends to a loose stance, might succeed as the Fed chairman, strengthening the market's expectation that the rate - cut pace could be faster than expected [2]. - The market's expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has risen sharply, leading to higher Japanese bond yields and a stronger yen. Attention should be paid to its impact on global liquidity [2]. Commodity Market - In the black sector, it is still dragged down by the downstream demand expectation, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" facts [2]. - In the non - ferrous sector, the long - term supply constraint has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently [2]. - In the energy sector, continue to pay attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks on oil prices. Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman have submitted additional production - cut plans, and the EU has reached an agreement to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas by 2027 [2]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA is worth noting [2]. - In the agricultural product sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast after the Sino - US talks [2]. - For precious metals, after the short - term sharp adjustment risk is cleared, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [2]. Important News - China's export (in US dollars) increased by 5.9% year - on - year in November, with an estimate of 4% and a previous value of - 1.1%. Imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a previous value of 1%. The trade surplus was $111.68 billion [4]. - The CSRC will implement differentiated supervision on securities firms, appropriately relax restrictions on high - quality institutions, and explore differentiated supervision on small and medium - sized and foreign - funded securities firms [4]. - On December 8, the market opened higher and moved higher. The ChiNext Index rose more than 3% during the session. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.6% [4]. - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing multiple aspects such as expanding domestic demand and implementing positive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [4].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates a significant rebound in the stock prices of China's CXO (Contract Research Organization) industry, including WuXi AppTec, WuXi AppTec Holding, and WuXi Biologics, following a period of weak performance due to market concerns over a potentially lenient version of the "Biological Safety Act" being passed alongside the ongoing revisions of the "2026 National Defense Authorization Act" in the U.S. Congress [1] Group 1 - The stock prices of WuXi AppTec, WuXi AppTec Holding, and WuXi Biologics have recently rebounded significantly [1] - Earlier weak performance of these stocks was attributed to market fears regarding the legislative changes in the U.S. [1] - The recent price rebound may reflect a alleviation of these concerns, although there has been no update on the National Defense Authorization Act [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley believes that the geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S. will continue to ease, which is favorable for the development of China's CXO industry [1] - The target prices set by Morgan Stanley are as follows: WuXi AppTec at HKD 74, WuXi AppTec Holding at HKD 142, and WuXi Biologics at HKD 37, all rated as "Overweight" [1]

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 4 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 每日报告 三、数据概览 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15005 元/吨，较上一 交易日涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, the supply - demand imbalance persists with high inventory and oversupply. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the downside is limited as it has reached a 5 - year low [1][2]. - For the stainless - steel market, due to low demand, high inventory, and a declining cost center, the price is also expected to stay in a low - level range. Similar to nickel, the current price is at a 5 - year low with limited downside [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On December 2, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 117,800 yuan/ton and closed at 118,050 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 88,522 (- 57,307) lots, and the open interest was 121,924 (- 967) lots. The recent rebound is a minor repair after previous over - decline, driven by macro - level easing expectations such as the Fed's rate - cut anticipation and improved Sino - US relations. However, the supply - demand imbalance remains, and there is obvious support near the cost line [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is quiet with stable prices. In the Philippines, mines are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and the shipping efficiency is okay. Downstream nickel - iron prices are weak, squeezing iron - plant profits, leading to cautious raw - material procurement and some plants considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium is mostly in the range of +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average due to consecutive price rebounds, and the premium of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,351 (- 371) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,074 (- 1,290) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Focus on range - bound operations. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are proposed [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On December 2, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract opened at 12,460 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 95,108 (- 68,491) lots, and the open interest was 102,135 (- 4,171) lots. It showed a low - level oscillating upward trend, similar to Shanghai nickel, and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term due to the coexistence of macro support and fundamental pressure [2]. - **Spot**: Affected by the "buy on rising" psychology, stainless - steel spot trading has improved, and prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets have increased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,700 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is between 355 - 555 yuan/ton, and the average ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are proposed [4].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 30 日 ——国际时政周评 回顾：中美元首通话；俄乌；美委。 未来一周：地缘冲突；美国内政及关税。 ❑ 未来一周关注： 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 中美元首再通话 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1）中美元首再通话。此次通话从双方交流内容看，一方面是釜山会晤的延 续，同时也是双方已开始形成较稳定的定期沟通机制。随着今年以来双 方经贸会谈的推进，协商议题从关税议题进阶到战略资源&产业链议 题、再进阶到地缘政治议题，表明双方关系已逐步进入一个以稳定关 系、减少误解为目标的框架机制，而高层领导人的定期互动则是当前中 美关系缓和的保障和关键推动力。关注明年中美领导人的后续互动。 2）美乌会晤后将美方就结束乌克兰危机所提 28 点新计划修改并缩减为 19 点，美俄乌各方谈判持续。乌克兰和欧洲或在采取"踢皮球"策略，以 拖延美方此前提出的和平计划，为后续谈判争取时间和筹码。一方面俄 乌双方的战场攻击仍然继续，另一方面乌克兰代表团已访美、下周美国 特使将访俄，和谈继续推进。我们认为俄乌双方要在 ...