投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 |数据日报 供给方面,美豆优良率降至61%。近期产区降雨偏少,优良率或继续下调，美豆单产后续或存在下调空间:10月国内大豆预期开始去 | 库但四季度国内豆粕供应预期仍宽松，目前11-1买船进度偏慢。明年一季度的豆粕供应仍需补充。补充来源暂不确定。需求方面，生猪 | | | --- | --- | | 和禽类养殖短期预期维持高存栏。支撑同用需求，但政策导向控生猪存栏和体重，预期影响远月生猪铁应:豆粉性价比较高，提货后于 | | | 11 高位:本周豆箱下游现货成交有所放量。库存方面，国内大豆库存增至高位,油厂豆粕库存上升,但低于去年同期，预期短期的处于累 | | | 结 库周期:饲料企业豆粕库存天数上升。 | | | 整体来说，阿根廷出口完成任务恢复关税。内盎反弹，但相比于降税利空影响前，国内大豆进口量增加，因此今日未收复周二用线 | | | 。商务部表明，关于太豆贸易，美方应采取积极行动，取消相关不合理关税。因目前内驻价格已云贸易战升水，美盘对美豆卖压的反映 | | | 相对充分,若中美关系缓和预期利多CBOT盘面,从成本端利多内盘,M01以逢低做 ...

中美高层互访预期提升市场风险偏好，特朗普可能于 2025 年底或 2026 年初访华，此前或有其他高级别官员先行访问，为市场带来潜在 上涨机会，但具体公告时间仍需关注。 TikTok 协议达成是中国对美让步的体现，可能促使美国降低对华关税， 为中美关系发展奠定积极基础，但具体利好政策的公布时间尚未明确。 特朗普访华前，中美在技术升级或创新药领域出现不利政策的概率较低， 相关行业将受益于相对稳定的政策环境，中国创新药企业或将持续依赖 美国外包业务。 中国积极促成特朗普访华，旨在提升自身国际地位和影响力，对其他与 中国存在博弈的国家形成威慑，美国务卿卢比奥的先行访问值得重点关 注。 尽管近期金融股表现不佳，但中央对股市的支持力度增强，长线资金呈 现小幅流入态势，券商盈利预期良好，投资者对券商、银行等权重板块 不必过于悲观。 Q&A 中美元首通话的主要成果是什么？对市场有何影响？ 中美元首通话的评估及市场展望 20250921 摘要 特朗普对中国的政策以及中美关系的未来走向如何？ 中美元首通话确立了几个重要事项。首先，TikTok 协议正式达成，这对于特朗 普的政治利益至关重要，因为 TikTok 在美国年轻人中影 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming week (September 22 to September 28) will see the release of key economic data in China, including the September LPR rates and the unlocking of nearly 60 billion yuan in market value from restricted stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1][12] - A total of 44 stocks will face the unlocking of restricted shares, amounting to 2.821 billion shares, with a total market value of 596.86 billion yuan based on the closing price on September 19 [1][3] - The top three stocks by unlocking market value are Hehe Information (10.835 billion yuan), Ziyan Food (7.126 billion yuan), and Wireless Media (5.521 billion yuan) [1][4] Group 2 - The "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" press conference will be held, featuring key financial leaders discussing achievements in the financial sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6] - A new round of fuel price adjustments will take place, with potential increases in gasoline and diesel prices based on recent crude oil price trends [6] - The National Day cultural tourism consumption month will be launched, with over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies to stimulate tourism during the holiday period [7] Group 3 - The 2025 Eurasian Economic Forum will be held from September 23 to 25 in Xi'an, focusing on sustainable development and cooperation among Eurasian countries [8] - The Fourth Global Digital Trade Expo will take place from September 25 to 29 in Hangzhou, showcasing advancements in digital trade [9] - The 2025 World New Energy Vehicle Conference will be held from September 27 to 29 in Haikou, discussing future transportation and sustainable development [10]

2、市场震荡，是否有大资金在控慢牛节奏？ 3、偏好什么市场，偏好什么行业？ 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、中美关系进入缓和期，如何影响市场？ 这个周末最大的新闻，是中美两国元首终于实现通话。根据中方对外发布的公告，字里行间其实暗含不 少暖风细节，其中专门点到TikTok这一关键谈判议题。最终公布的成果表述为"尊重企业对等的商业谈 判"，这相当于中方在此议题上小幅让步、往后退了一步，也意味着TikTok未来可能引入更多美国股 东。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 输入"妙投888"即可领取。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 每天10分钟拆解新闻背后的逻辑。大家好，今天是2025年的9月21号星期天，我是董小姐。 1、中美关系进入缓和期，如何影响市场？ ...

看着港股这几天涨得欢实，恒生科技指数4%的涨幅确实让人眼红。商汤、百度这些票15%的涨幅，阿里重回3万亿市值，哪个散户看了不心动？但说实 话，这种热闹场面我见得太多了。 | w 港股 | L | Q | | --- | --- | --- | | 港股 美股 全球 基金 | A股 | | | 港股龙虎榜 陆股通龙虎榜 沪深港通速递 | | | | 整体市场 1 | | | | 恒生指数 恒生国企 恒生科技 | | | | 26908.39 9596.77 6334.24 | | | | +469.88 +1.78% +210.38 +2.24% +256.58 +4.22% | | | | 行业板块 [3 | | | | Wind香港半导 Wind香港电气 Wind香港可选 | | | | 13877.93 826.14 4176.58 | | | | +669.01 +5.06% +38.35 +4.87% +176.38 +4.41% | | | | 概念板块 | | | | 蓝宝石指数 在线教育指数 电力设备指数 | | | | 87.67 1510.05 1025.56 | | | | 1 00 17 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is reacting to the strong expectation of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has driven gold prices to a historical high of $3690 per ounce, reflecting a "vote of confidence" in future value [1] - The recent weak U.S. non-farm payroll data and other economic indicators have led the market to almost certainty that the Federal Reserve will signal a dovish stance in its upcoming meeting, potentially announcing a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - There are concerns about the accumulation of risks as gold prices show signs of being overbought, indicating that any hawkish comments could lead to significant price corrections [1] Group 2 - A framework consensus has been reached between China and the U.S. in Spain regarding the resolution of TikTok-related issues and the reduction of investment barriers, although it is not a comprehensive trade agreement [2] - The choice of Spain as the meeting location signifies a positive attitude towards resolving issues within a multilateral framework, despite the underlying structural tensions in U.S.-China relations remaining unresolved [2][3] - The agreement is seen as a potential thaw in relations, but it may also represent a tactical pause in a longer-term strategic competition [3] Group 3 - The marginal improvement in the external environment provides a rare respite for the A-share market, with expectations of a shift towards looser global liquidity due to the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cut [4] - Discussions about a potential style shift in the A-share market are gaining traction, focusing on whether funds will flow from crowded "dividend" sectors to more aggressive growth sectors as external risks diminish [5] - The market is questioning whether the upcoming focus will be on stable "high-dividend" value stocks or dynamic "new productivity" growth stocks, with the potential for a style shift being a key topic of interest [6]

Group 1 - The core outcome of the recent China-US economic talks in Spain is the establishment of a framework consensus on the TikTok issue, signaling a potential easing of economic relations between the two countries, which is expected to positively impact market sentiment in the short term [2][8]. - The discussions highlighted a pragmatic advancement in China-US economic negotiations, particularly regarding user data, content security, and intellectual property rights, indicating a willingness to seek consensus despite deep-seated differences [9][10]. - The expectation of improved China-US relations is likely to enhance risk appetite among investors, potentially benefiting Chinese stocks, especially in the internet and technology sectors, and stabilizing the offshore RMB [10][11]. Group 2 - The future implementation of the agreements reached during the talks is contingent upon subsequent communications between the leaders of China and the US, which could significantly influence market confidence and the overall investment climate [10][11]. - If the TikTok agreement is successfully implemented and leads to tariff adjustments and a potential state visit by the US president, it could catalyze a new phase of market activity, particularly benefiting technology growth sectors and export-oriented companies [13][14]. - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: event-driven rebounds in technology growth sectors, mid-term benefits for export chains and consumer leaders, and the anticipated policy and funding advantages for brokerage firms [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant developments, particularly in the context of supply chain dynamics and demand for advanced PCB technologies, which are expected to drive growth in the coming years [2][20]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent negotiations led by the U.S. administration have positively impacted the market, with Chinese concept stocks showing notable gains [2]. - Citigroup's report highlights the importance of core data such as shipment volumes, production capacity, and pricing in understanding market trends [3][5]. Group 2: PCB Value and Trends - Citigroup estimates that the value of PCB per GPU is projected to increase from $375 for GB200/GB300 to $863 for VR200, indicating a consensus in the industry regarding this trend [5]. - The shift to cableless designs in PCB technology is expected to enhance reliability and space efficiency, allowing for higher chip density in new models [7][8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand - The demand for AI-PCB is anticipated to reach RMB 72 billion by 2026, driven by the adoption of next-generation GPU platforms and an increase in ASIC demand [10]. - The PCB industry faces challenges related to high-end equipment and material shortages, which may slow down capacity expansion [10]. Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Shenghua Technology's production capacity is projected to reach RMB 31 billion, RMB 56 billion, and RMB 83 billion by the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [14][15]. - Citigroup estimates that NVIDIA will contribute RMB 89 billion, RMB 147 billion, and RMB 260 billion to Shenghua's revenue from 2025 to 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of 71% [20]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Shenghua Technology is expected to maintain a significant market share in the PCB supply chain for NVIDIA, with estimates of 70% for GB300 and 65% for VR models [20]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a faster capacity expansion cycle compared to its peers, which is crucial for capitalizing on the upcoming AI-PCB supercycle [24].

富达国际亚洲经济分析师刘培乾表示，展望未来，中国内地股市两大资金来源将左右市场对实体经济的 影响程度。其一，首次公开招股(IPO)复苏，有助巩固良性融资循环，增强金融市场支持实体经济的传 导机制。其二，宜密切留意内地散户的入市行动，虽然目前散户入市的热度仍未及十年前，但随着保证 金融资增加及更多资金由家庭存款流向股市，中国内地市场的散户动力正逐步形成。 上述两大资金来源持续流入A股股市，将有助产生财富效应，从而提升家庭可支配收入，恢复家庭消费 信心。临近中国内地十一国庆假期，旅游支出和房地产每周成交数据，将提供重要的早期经济讯号。 关于未来政策走向，刘培乾认为，宽松财政政策很大机会仍为下半年中国内地政策主调。假如经济增长 仍未见更趋稳定的迹象，房地产市场政策可望有进一步松绑空间，中国内地政府也有可能增加福利开 支，扩大补贴计划。然而，这可能需要动用更多财政资源，央行未来数季或因而面临挑战，需在支持实 体经济稳步增长与防止股市过热或出现炒风之间取得平衡。 刘培乾表示，中国内地股市近期升势并非由单一催化剂，而是由国策调整、流动性改善、中美关系缓 和，及经济基本面增强等多项重大利好因素所驱动。 刘培乾认为，中国内地 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Rubio marks the first formal contact between China and the US since Rubio took office, occurring amidst signs of a temporary easing in US-China relations [1] - The European Parliament passed a resolution condemning China's restrictions on rare earth exports with a vote of 523 in favor, 75 against, and 14 abstentions, labeling the move as unjustified and coercive [1][2] - China's management policy on rare earth exports, implemented in April, requires all exporting companies to apply for a six-month export license from the Ministry of Commerce, which is a standard regulatory measure [1][2] Group 2 - The European Union's dependency on China for rare earth resources is significant, with approximately 60% of global rare earth extraction and 90% of rare earth permanent magnet production concentrated in China, essential for various industries including electric vehicles and military equipment [2][10] - Despite Europe's ambition to localize rare earth extraction and processing by 2030, the practical challenges are substantial, and China's response to European criticisms emphasizes the need for more communication and cooperation [4][7] - The EU's internal divisions are evident, as the European Parliament criticizes China while simultaneously relying on Chinese rare earth resources, indicating a contradiction in their approach [9] Group 3 - The recent strategic dialogue between Wang Yi and EU representatives revealed China's firm stance against perceived Western pressures, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict and accusations of military support to Russia [5][12] - The EU's "de-risking" plans aim to reduce reliance on China in various sectors, including chemicals and medical supplies, reflecting a growing tension in trade relations [7][9] - The evolving dynamics of US-China relations, with signs of warming ties, may diminish Europe's strategic leverage, as the EU hoped to balance its position between the two powers [12][14]