油脂日报 | 2026-01-09 加拿大总理预计访华，或影响菜系价格 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8612.00元/吨，环比变化+50元，幅度+0.58%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7944.00 元/吨，环比变化-14.00元，幅度-0.18%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8956.00元/吨，环比变化-139.00元，幅度-1.53%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8580.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.94%，现货基差P05-32.00，环比变化 +30.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8340.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y05+396.00， 环比变化+24.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9710.00元/吨，环比变化-140.00元，幅度-1.42%，现货基差 OI05+754.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：印尼政策动态：据外媒报道，印尼能源部官员透露，因资金紧张，印尼可能提高棕榈油出口 税以支持生物柴油计划；同时，B50生物柴油路测已于12月启动，计划今年下半年实施，2025年该国生物柴油消费 量 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 星期五 品种观点： 【焦炭 焦煤】1 月 8 日焦炭加权指数强势震荡，收盘价 1766.3，环比上涨 43.3。 1 月 8 日焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 1191.1 元，环比上涨 52.6。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：现货采购价格第四轮下调已经落地。焦化企业利润下滑，但开工整体来看仍然稳定。因高炉利润处于 低位，钢厂虽有复产动作，但铁水产量回升幅度较小，对焦炭的需求偏弱。 焦煤：主产地煤矿陆续复产，国产焦煤产量环比上升；需求，下游焦企按需采购，煤矿出货情况转差，不同 煤种采购价格表现存在差异，但多数煤种价格小幅下跌。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【郑糖】巴西 2025 年 12 月出口同比增加预示短期需求或回暖，受此影响美糖周三震荡走高。受美糖上升提 振郑糖 2605 月合约期价周三高开，但是受短线多头平仓打压期价后期震荡回落收盘小幅上升。夜盘，郑糖 2605 月合约波动不大窄幅震荡小幅收低。巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西 12 月出口糖和糖蜜 291.3 万吨，较 2024 年 12 月的 283.36 万吨增 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260109 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：金属价格调整延续，A 股步入结构性行情 海外方面，美联储理事米兰指出，当前利率明显高于中性水平、仍具限制性，在基础通 胀已接近目标的背景下，2026 年存在约 150bp 的降息空间，目前 CME 利率期货定价 6、9 月各降息一次。首次申领失业救济人数仍处历史低位，短期压力有限，但持续申领上行反映 再就业效率下降，长期失业风险仍在累积，重点关注今晚非农就业数据。美元指数回升至 98.9，美股涨跌不一，金属价格连续 2 日调整，贵金属相对抗跌，油价反弹。 国内方面，1 月国内经济数据与政策处于相对真空期，对行情的边际驱动有限，市场更 依赖资金结构与风险偏好的自我演绎。周四 A 股延续震荡、结构分化，上证指数小幅收跌 于 4083 点，突破动能趋弱；宽基指数结构分化，微盘、科创风格占优，上证 50、沪深 300 延续弱势，航天军工、发电设备等板块领涨，两市成交额小幅回落至 2.83 万亿、超 3730 只 个股收涨，赚钱效应回升，市场仍处于分化博弈 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2026 年 01 月 08 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2026/1/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 各品种地区现货价 品种 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7944 | (14) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8474 | | | | 8524 | 8344 | | 580 | 10 530 | 0 | 400 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8612 | 50 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8582 | | | | 8572 | 8742 | | -30 | 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - Market sentiment has ebbed, and commodities with large previous gains face profit - taking pressure. Different agricultural products have different market trends and influencing factors. Attention should be paid to policy, weather, export, and other aspects [2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Bean No.1 - Bean No.1 futures main contract shows an adjustment trend with a reduction in positions. The domestic soybean spot price remains strong. The South American new - season soybean has a high - yield expectation, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA January report predicts the US 2025/26 soybean ending stocks and inventory as of December 1, 2025. Reuters predicts a slight increase in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production. South American weather is favorable, and the probability of ENSO neutral in the first quarter is 68%. Dalian soybean meal rebounds with US soybeans. Attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Market sentiment has ebbed, and soybean oil and palm oil show a trend of rising and then falling. Indonesia may raise palm oil export taxes, and the Malaysian palm oil market may continue to accumulate inventory. The supply - side risk of overseas soybeans is low, and the inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil continues, with a weak supply - demand situation [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures decline significantly today. The market has high expectations for the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China. If Canada changes its tariff policies on Chinese products, the export of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil to China may resume. The domestic rapeseed - related futures are expected to be in a weak and volatile trend [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to increase positions and rise. Some Northeast deep - processing enterprises slightly raise the purchase price. The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The spot price of some ports is stable or slightly weak. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning continues to decrease. The recent auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn spot has a high transaction rate and premium. The short - term trend is wide - range volatility [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continue to fluctuate. Different data sources show different trends in the number of sows and newborn piglets. The fat - to - lean price difference is high, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low. There is a large supply pressure before the Spring Festival, and the upward rebound space of the futures is limited. In the long - term, the pig price is likely to have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The near - month egg futures contract strengthens again, showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern compared with yesterday. The spot price is stable or slightly strong. The monthly year - on - year decline in chick replenishment from September to December exceeds 10%, and the egg - laying hen inventory is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026. It is recommended to go long on the first - half - year 2026 futures contracts at low prices. The second - half - year contracts may have different trends [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report is a daily data report on futures variety arbitrage from Baocheng Futures, covering multiple futures varieties including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. It provides data on basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for different trading dates [1][2][8][10][18][19][20][28][31][38][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The report presents the basis and inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of thermal coal from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026. During this period, the basis gradually increased from - 131.4 yuan/ton to - 108.4 yuan/ton, while the inter - month spreads remained at 0.0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It provides basis data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, and INE crude oil from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, along with price ratios for some commodities [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The report shows the basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026. For example, the basis of rubber decreased from - 370 yuan/ton to - 430 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: It presents the inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol [10]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) for different dates from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are provided [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are given. For example, the basis of rebar decreased from 186.0 yuan/ton to 153.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. Note that the main contract months of rebar are January, May, and October [19]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot - rolled coil) for different dates from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are provided [19]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are shown. For example, the basis of copper increased from - 1600 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton on January 7, 2026 [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - The report provides data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 7, 2026 [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data for soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No. 1 decreased from - 204 yuan/ton to - 324 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) for multiple agricultural products such as soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [38]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads (soybeans No. 1/corn, soybeans No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) for different dates from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are provided [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 30, 2025, to January 7, 2026, are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 increased from 12.69 to 23.67 on January 7, 2026 [49]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented [49].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260108 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 12 月服务业 PMI 回升，A 股上涨动能回落 海外方面，12 月美国 ADP 就业人数由负转正，但低于预期，叠加 11 月 JOLTS 职位空 缺降至一年多低点、职位空缺数四年来首次低于失业人数，显示招聘放缓、劳动力需求系统 性走弱的趋势仍在延续；但与此同时，12 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 升至一年多新高 54.4，新订单 显著回升，带动服务业就业出现阶段性修复，且价格涨幅放缓，表明需求回暖尚未引发通胀 反弹。整体而言，美国就业降温主线未改，但服务业韧性对冲下行压力。美股涨跌不一，美 元指数回升至 98.7，金属上涨动能暂缓，金银铜及其他金属均不同程度下跌，美国扣押与委 内瑞拉关联的俄籍油轮，油价延续调整。 国内方面，周三 A 股宽幅震荡、放量收涨，上证指数冲击 4100 点关口受阻，收于 4085 点，显示上行动能边际趋弱；宽基指数结构分化，上证 50、沪深 300 收跌，科创 50、中证 1000 占优，半导体、煤炭等板块领涨，两 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2026 年 1 月 8 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（1 月 7 日）A 股三大指数小幅上涨，沪指日线 14 连阳。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.05%，收 报 4085.77 点；深证成指涨 0.06%，收报 14030.56 点；创业板指涨 0.31%，收报 3329.69 点。沪深两市成交额达 到 28818 亿，较昨日放量 492 亿。 沪深 300 指数 1 月 7 日回调整理。收盘 4776.67，环比下跌 14.03。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】1 月 7 日焦炭加权指数强势，收盘价 1774.5，环比上涨 131.6。 1 月 7 日焦煤加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1165.8 元，环比上涨 87.3。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：库存转向轻微去库。短期煤焦存在两个主要价格驱动，一个是冬储炉料的补库需求预期，尤其是在焦 炭连续四轮提降下，价格预期到相对合理区间，预期对补库力度提振较大。另一个是近期南美宏观局势变化影响 能源市场不确定性出现。 焦煤：临汾低硫主焦煤 1500 元/吨（0），乌海 1/3 焦煤 1110 元/ ...

二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棉花：继续大涨 焦点关注：棉花主力 2605 合约继续大涨，向上突破 15000 整数 关位，期价受到远期供应收缩预期以及下游需求较强的支撑： 棉花、豆粕劲升 一、农产品板块综述 棉花继续大涨突破万五整数关位，2026 年新疆播种面积下降预 期以及下游需求偏强支撑棉价上涨，强势延续。豆粕亦劲升，商品市 场偏多气氛以及豆粕库存环比下降提振期价走高，近期偏强，关注后 续油厂压榨量及现货成交情况。 1. 新疆 2026 年棉花种植面积下降的预期持续升温，市场对未来 棉花供应可能减少的担忧情绪加剧，引发市场持续炒作。而新棉销售 率同比大幅增加，显示需求显著增强。下游纺织企业接单稳定，中高 支纱线需求强劲，新疆纺企开机率长时间稳定在 9 成以上。中美经贸 关系改善后，市场对纺织服装出口有乐观预期。棉花多头持续增仓推 动期价大涨。 2.棉花期货主力 2605 合约高位大涨，期价向上突破 15000 整数 关位，期价远离均线系统之上扩涨，延续强势特征，策略上继续逢低 轻仓多单，支撑 14730—14840。 （二）豆粕：大幅上涨 焦点关注：豆粕主力 2605 合约大幅上涨，刷新一个月新高，期 价商品 ...

格隆汇1月7日｜吉隆坡 Iceberg X 的交易员 David Ng 表示，由于市场预期印度尼西亚可能调高出口税， 棕榈油期货收盘走高。Ng 指出，较高的关税将使马来西亚棕榈油更具价格优势，从而转化为更高的需 求。他补充道，豆油价格上涨也提振了市场情绪。Ng 认为棕榈油价格在每吨 3,950 林吉特处有支撑， 在每吨 4,250 林吉特处面临阻力。马来西亚衍生品交易所 10 月交付的合同价格上涨 45 林吉特，至每吨 4,035 林吉特。 ...