商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | | 市场表现：周一贵金属价格震荡，市场逐步消化鲍威尔讲话。 | | | | | | | 金 | | 基本面：特朗普政府据称考虑因数字服务法制裁欧盟官员。国内黄金 ETF | 资金小幅流出，COMEX | | | 黄金库存 | | | 属 | 1199 | 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | 吨；上期所白银库存 | | | 1113 | | | 吨，增加 | 4 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | 白银库存 | 15823 | 吨，增加 7 | | 吨；伦 | | | 敦 7 | 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 | 吨左右。全球最大白银 | | etf--iShares | | 持有 | | | 量为 | 15288 吨，增加 11 吨。 | | | | | | | | | 交易策略： ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/26 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃期货后续走势分析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 在价格破位下行的背景下，投资者面临两难抉择：是该抓住"跌出的做多黄金坑" ，还是屈服于空头反 扑的压力？我们选择了低多玻璃，今天玻璃继续上涨，看好后续玻璃市场。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 空头反扑的核心支撑：供需失衡与库存较高。 做多机会的潜在信号：成本底线与预期转向。 从另一个角度看，当前玻璃期货2601价格的下跌或许正孕育着做多机会。物极必反。 一方面，价格已接近沙河地区交割品生产成本，继续下跌可能引发企业挺价行为。企业为了维持利润空 间，在价格触及成本线附近时，往往会采取减产、限产等措施，减少市场供应，从而对价格形成支撑 。 另一方面，从技术分析角度，玻璃2601合约成交量缩量明显，从技术形态上看，当前位置不具备大幅下 跌的基础，反而有迎来反抽的可能性。 从中间盘整处下跌的幅度相比高位下跌 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-08-26投资咨询部 棕榈油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：棕榈油现货9638，基差56，现货升水期货。中性 3.库存：8月22日棕榈油港口库存58万吨，前值57万吨，环比+1万吨，同比-34.1%。偏多 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：棕榈油主力多翻空。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜 加征关税导致菜系领涨，国内油脂基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。中美及中加关系缓和宏观层面影响市 场。棕榈油P2601：9400-9800附近区间震荡 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 8 月 26 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（8 月 25 日）A 股三大指数延续强势表现，沪指再创十年新高。截止收盘，沪指涨 1.51%， 收报 3883.56 点；深证成指涨 2.26%，收报 12441.07 点；创业板指涨 3%，收报 2762.99 点。沪深两市成交额史 上第二次突破三万亿，今日达到 31411 亿，较上一交易日大幅放量 5944 亿。 沪深 300 指数 8 月 25 日强势依旧。收盘 4469.22，环比上涨 91.22。 【焦炭 焦煤】8 月 25 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1732.1，环比上涨 69.6。 8 月 25 日，焦煤加权指数宽幅震荡，收盘价 1208.8 元，环比上涨 73.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：2025 年 1-7 月，全球粗钢产量为 10.862 亿吨，同比下降 1.9%。需求端，本期铁水产量 240.75 万吨， +0.09 万吨，铁水高位，煤矿端库存已经不存在压力，库存向下游转移，焦煤总库存总体呈现增加。利润方面， 本期全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利 ...

策略参考 参考观点：震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 核心逻辑：国内弱现实和强预期格局尚未改变，短期豆类期价高位反复性较强。受到中美贸易协商前景变 化的影响，盘面短线资金频繁进出场，或将继续加剧盘面波动。短期豆粕期价高位波动为主。 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 震 ...

日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.08.25） 参考策略：IF2509 多单持有，买入 IO-4300-P 看跌期权保护 核心逻辑： 1.海外方面，全球央行年会上美联储主席鲍威尔最新表态相对偏鸽， 9 月大概率降息，市场基本计价价全年降息 2 次，大幅提振全球风险情绪， 有助科创类相关板块估值提升。 2.资金情绪方面，市场量能处于高位水平，融资余额稳定在 2.1 万亿 上方，融资余额市值占比上升至 2.30%，杠杆资金持续加速进场，杠杆资 金交投情绪持续升温，融资资金交易额占比虽先升后降，期末比重仍较上 周提升 0.1 个百分点。权益类 ETF 整体净申购为主，沪深 300 指数、上证 50 指数、中证 500 指数、中证 1000 指数分别净流入 428.57 亿、87.1 亿、 110.75 亿、59.41 亿。 3.政策端，新一期国常会听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新 政策情况汇报，加强统筹协调，完善实施机制，更好发挥对扩大内需的推 动作用，综合施策释放内需潜力。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL ...

2025年08月25日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周五贵金属大幅反弹，鲍威尔讲话引发市场巨震。 | | | | | | 金 | 基本面：鲍威尔央行年会上讲话，称劳动力市场指标稳定使联储能谨慎考虑政策调整，基准前景和风险平衡 | | | | | | 属 | 变化可能需要联储调整政策立场；不过周末美联储官员古尔比斯讲话重提关注通胀问题。国内黄金 | | 资金 | ETF | | | | 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1199 吨，维持不变；上期所黄金库存 37 吨，增加 1 吨；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 | 8774 | | | | | | 吨；上期所白银库存 1109 吨，减少 6 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1289 吨，减少 64 吨，COMEX | | | | 白银库 | | | 存 15816 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月白银库存增加 408 吨至 24196 吨；印度 6 月白银进口约 200 吨左右。全 | | | | | | | 球最大白银 etf- ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/25 空头反扑的核心支撑：供需失衡与库存较高。做多机会的潜在信号：成本底线与预期转向。 从另一个角度看，当前玻璃期货2601价格的下跌或许正孕育着做多机会。 一方面，价格已接近沙河地区交割品生产成本，继续下跌可能引发企业挺价行为。企业为了维持利润空 间，在价格触及成本线附近时，往往会采取减产、限产等措施，减少市场供应，从而对价格形成支撑 。 另一方面，从技术分析角度，玻璃2601合约成交量缩量明显，从技术形态上看，当前位置不具备大幅下 跌的基础，反而有迎来反抽的可能性。 从中间盘整处下跌的幅度相比高位下跌到盘整处的幅度明显减少，按照技术分析黄金分割率0.618理论， 此处可能会出现反抽行情。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃期货后续走势分析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 近期，玻璃期货2601合约价格波动剧烈，引发市场广泛关注。 在价格破位下行的背景下，投资者面临两难抉择：是该抓住"跌出的做多黄金坑" ，还是屈服于空头反 扑的压力？ GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：油脂供应充足，豆油价格继续低开低走。主要原因在于市场 尚未证实的消息称可能会有600万吨大豆抛储并进口美豆轮换（消 息尚未证实）。中美、中加贸易关系依旧严峻，市场对于四季度油 籽供应存在担忧。目前豆油市场处于"弱现实+强预期"格局，弱 现实主要表现为 ...

Variety Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - On August 21, A-share market's three major indexes showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten-year high, closing up 0.13% at 3771.10 points; the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.06% at 11919.76 points; and the ChiNext Index down 0.47% at 2595.47 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2424.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.58 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index had a strong oscillation on August 21, closing at 4288.07, up 16.68 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On August 21, the weighted index of coke remained weak, closing at 1661.0, down 14.7 compared to the previous day [3] - On August 21, the weighted index of coking coal was weak, closing at 1140.6 yuan, down 14.0 compared to the previous day [4] - For coke, due to an approaching major event, there are expectations of production limitations at coking plants in East China. After the seventh price increase, coking profits have improved slightly, and daily coking production has increased slightly. Overall coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off - season [5] - For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines has decreased. The spot auction market has performed well, with prices mostly rising, and terminal inventory remaining flat. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the decline in production - end inventory has narrowed. It is likely to continue destocking in the short term [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Recently, the increase in refining profit has boosted the demand for raw sugar. The market expects that China's strong import pace in July may continue for at least the next few months. Supported by these factors, US sugar oscillated higher on Wednesday. Due to the start of stockpiling for the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the spot price has been firm recently. Affected by the rise in US sugar and the increase in spot price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract oscillated upward on Thursday. However, due to the large short - term increase, it oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. In July 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons, but a month - on - month increase, hitting a new high for the year [5] Rubber - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from August 21 to 26. Supported by concerns about bad weather in major rubber - producing areas, Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly higher on Thursday. At night, it fluctuated slightly. According to LMC Automotive, in July 2025, the seasonally adjusted annualized sales volume of global light vehicles rose to 94 million vehicles per year. Year - on - year, the global market sales volume increased by more than 6% to 7.46 million vehicles [6] Soybean Meal - In the international market on August 21, CBOT soybean futures rose sharply due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. The November contract of US soybeans closed at 1055 cents per bushel. During the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour on Wednesday, the inspection team found that the soybean outlook in western Iowa was much better than average. Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) said that Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, higher than the previous week's forecast of 8.8 million tons [6] - In the domestic market on August 21, the M2601 main contract closed at 3113 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.49%. Chinese importers have not purchased new - crop US soybeans. All the purchased soybean orders for the fourth quarter are from South America. The increase in Brazilian soybean costs and the non - purchase of new - crop US soybeans have raised concerns about a tightening of later - stage soybean meal supply, which has significantly supported forward prices. However, currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, oil refineries' operating rates are high, which has promoted the recovery of soybean meal inventory. The abundant supply has put pressure on soybean meal prices. Future focus should be on the weather in the producing areas and soybean import situation [8] Live Pigs - On August 21, live pig futures prices oscillated weakly. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13765 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.07%. Currently, it is the off - season for pork consumption. High - temperature weather has led to weak terminal demand. The order volume of major pig enterprises is low, and the operating level remains low, which has put some pressure on prices. In August, production capacity is being realized intensively, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the monthly slaughter plans of group pig enterprises have increased. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of abundant supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation trends, pig slaughter rhythm, and weight changes [8] Palm Oil - On August 21, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a high level. The main contract P2601 closed with a small upper - shadowed negative line, with a high of 9636, a low of 9480, and a closing price of 9500, down 0.57% from the previous day. According to foreign media reports, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) on Thursday showed that despite increased production and accelerated exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons. As the world's largest palm oil producer and exporter, Indonesia's palm oil exports in June reached 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month surge of 35.4% driven by the soaring demand from major buyers such as China and India. In June, the production of crude palm oil increased by 15.8% month - on - month to 4.82 million tons; the total production (including palm kernel oil) in the first half of this year reached 27.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [9] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern. Fundamentally, the arrival of domestic refineries has increased, and the supply pattern of electrolytic copper has turned abundant. However, as the seasonal off - season ends, downstream demand is expected to pick up. At the macro level, the expectation of a Fed rate hike in September has decreased, which has supported copper prices. In the short term, Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan. If it breaks through the key resistance level of 79,000 yuan, it may open up an upward space. In the spot market, domestic copper is still being warehoused, and affected by imported low - price goods, the spot premium of Shanghai copper may further decline. However, downstream purchasing sentiment may be strong, and the decline is expected to be limited [10] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan per ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on August 22, at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses of the National Cotton Exchange, the lowest basis quotation was 1070 yuan per ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 120 lots compared to the previous day. According to the US weather forecast, the drought area in the US will increase from August to October [10] Iron Ore - On August 21, the 2601 main contract of iron ore oscillated higher, with a gain of 0.98% and a closing price of 772.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore have both increased this period, and port inventory has continued to rise. Molten iron production has increased slightly. However, as environmental protection policies in the north become stricter before the September military parade, there are expectations of a decrease in molten iron production. In the short term, iron ore prices are in an oscillating trend [10] Asphalt - On August 21, the 2510 main contract of asphalt oscillated higher, with a gain of 0.38% and a closing price of 3465 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt has decreased month - on - month this period. Terminal demand is limited by rainfall and funds, and there has been no significant improvement in demand. Without obvious one - way driving factors, asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [11] Logs - On August 20, the 25091 contract opened at 804, had a low of 803, a high of 812, and closed at 804.5, with a decrease of 825 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 820 [11] - On August 21, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that in July, log imports were 2.5 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The cumulative imports from January to July decreased by 11.7% year - on - year. The increase in overseas prices has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [13] Steel - On August 21, rb2510 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2510 closed at 3375 yuan per ton. As steel prices have fallen for several consecutive days, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers has increased slightly, and the sales of low - price resources have improved. At the same time, most steel mills in Tangshan have maintenance plans, and it is expected that the supply - demand pressure will ease at the end of August and early September. The market should not be overly bearish. In the short term, steel prices will have limited fluctuations and may oscillate in a narrow range [13] Alumina - On August 21, ao2601 closed at 3124 yuan per ton. Fundamentally, the positive factors in the alumina market have faded. The 10.7% month - on - month increase in bauxite imports in July shows that the supply of imported ore has not been significantly affected by the rainy season. Domestic operating capacity remains high, and the import window opens intermittently. The pattern of oversupply will continue in the second half of the year. The alumina warehouse receipt inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continuously increased to 72,000 tons, alleviating liquidity concerns and dampening bullish sentiment. Alumina is in an oscillating adjustment [14] Shanghai Aluminum - On August 21, al2510 closed at 20590 yuan per ton. In terms of inventory, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is 571,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last week, and it has been accumulating for five consecutive weeks, but the support from low inventory still exists. In the short term, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum has changed to al2510. It is restricted by demand above and supported by macro - stimulus and low inventory below. It will continue to oscillate. If the electrolytic aluminum inventory accumulates rapidly, aluminum prices may be under pressure [14]