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南华期货玉米、淀粉产业日报-20251104
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:05
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - In November, the corn harvest is gradually ending, and the first - round selling pressure peak of new grain has passed. Corn prices first declined and then rebounded, showing stronger resilience. The performance varies by region: the Northeast region is supported by state - reserve purchases, and prices have stabilized after falling in mid - and early - October; the North China region has recovered from the impact of rainfall in October, and prices have risen as the selling pressure has weakened. Recently, the number of trucks arriving in Shandong has decreased, and enterprises have continuously raised purchase prices. The atmosphere in the corn spot market has gradually stabilized, and the selling pressure has become more dispersed, alleviating price pressure. In the past two days, the spot and futures prices of corn have risen in resonance, and the market atmosphere has improved. The starch market has shown a slightly stronger upward trend than the corn market [1]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting corn prices. Positive factors include the dispersion of selling pressure, support from state - reserve purchases in the Northeast, the比价 effect of rising soybean prices, and the unconfirmed news of wheat auctions in November, which has increased market bullish sentiment. Negative factors include the continuous decline in pig prices and the potential impact on long - term corn feed demand, as well as the potential for concentrated selling pressure when late - harvested corn is listed in mid - and early - November [2][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.47% and a volatility percentile of 55.3%. For starch, the monthly price range forecast is 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.58% and a volatility percentile of 42.10% [2]. Spot Price and Basis - Corn spot prices: Jinzhou Port is at 2150 yuan (up 20 yuan), Shekou Port is at 2250 yuan (up 20 yuan), and Harbin is at 2010 yuan (unchanged). Starch spot prices: Shandong is at 2750 yuan (up 10 yuan), Jilin is at 2550 yuan (unchanged), and Heilongjiang is at 2450 yuan (down 10 yuan). The basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract for corn is 9 yuan (up 9 yuan), and the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract for starch is 297 yuan (down 3 yuan) [2]. Futures Price Changes - Corn futures: Contracts from 11 to 09 have different degrees of price increases, with the largest increase of 24 yuan (1.14%) in the corn 11 contract and the smallest increase of 0 yuan (0.00%) in the corn 09 contract. Starch futures: Contracts from 11 to 09 also show price increases, with the largest increase of 18 yuan (0.75%) in the corn starch 11 contract and the smallest increase of 6 yuan (0.23%) in the corn starch 07 contract [5]. Seasonal Data - The report presents multiple seasonal data, including corn futures monthly spreads (such as 01 - 05, 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 03 - 05), starch futures monthly spreads (such as 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 03 - 05), the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract for corn, the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract for starch, the difference between starch and corn prices for the 01 contract, the weekly inventory of major deep - processing enterprises in China, the available inventory days of Chinese corn feed enterprises, the closing price of CBOT corn, and the import price and profit of US corn [6][14][28]. International Market Data - In the international market, CBOT corn futures closed slightly higher on Monday, supported by good export inspection data and the continued rise of soybeans. The prices of CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat main - continuous contracts all increased, with the CBOT wheat main - continuous contract having the largest increase of 2.06%. The import prices of US corn from the Gulf of Mexico and the West Coast have also increased slightly, and both have import profits [1][29].