（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月21日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。碳酸锂跌超8%，沪银跌超3%，红枣、低硫燃料 油（LU）、集运指数（欧线）、玻璃、工业硅、SC原油跌超2%；涨幅方面，淀粉涨超1%，玉米涨近 1%。 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: November 05, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - After entering November, the selling pressure of moist corn in domestic corn - producing areas began to weaken. In North China, the selling pressure was released after the "fire - sale" of moist corn. In Northeast China, after the peak of centralized harvest and listing, the selling pressure eased with the drop in temperature. The overall grass - roots in the producing areas were more reluctant to sell, and the purchasing end raised prices to increase purchases, leading to a short - term rebound in corn prices. After the first peak of selling pressure of new grain listing, the resilience of corn prices has strengthened, and the subsequent price pressure has eased as it turns into a phased release of selling pressure. On Tuesday, the upward trend of the corn futures market paused. The main 01 contract closed at 2135 yuan, with significantly reduced trading volume, slightly increased open interest, and the registered warehouse receipts increased to 66,351 lots. Starch futures followed corn and closed lower. The main 01 contract closed at 2444 yuan, with decreased trading volume and slightly reduced open interest. On Tuesday, CBOT corn futures closed lower following the decline of soybeans. StoneX raised its forecast of US corn yield per acre by 10 bushels to 186.0 bushels per acre, which weighed on prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Core Contradictions - The selling pressure of moist corn in domestic corn - producing areas has weakened, and the grass - roots are reluctant to sell. The purchasing end raises prices, leading to a short - term rebound in corn prices. After the first peak of selling pressure of new grain listing, the price pressure eases. The corn and starch futures markets closed lower on Tuesday, and CBOT corn futures also declined [2]. Bullish Factors - The selling pressure has become more dispersed, and the urgency to sell grain has decreased, alleviating price pressure. The state - reserve purchase in Northeast China has significantly supported prices, limiting price declines. The unconfirmed news of wheat auctions in November has increased the bullish sentiment in the market [5]. Bearish Factors - The weak operation of hog prices and the industry's capacity adjustment may affect the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs still support the feed demand at a relatively good level. From mid - to early November, the late - harvested corn will still be harvested and listed, and the selling pressure needs to be released in a phased and concentrated manner, which restricts the continuous upward momentum of prices. Chinese importers have inquired about wheat cargoes and plan to load them from the end of this year to February next year. The resumption of grain imports will increase the pressure on domestic corn, and the purchase volume should be monitored [3]. Price Range Forecast | Commodity | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility | Volatility Percentile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | 2050 - 2200 | 9.43% | 54.6% | | Starch | 2350 - 2550 | 10.64% | 42.31% | [3] Spot Price and Main - Contract Basis | Corn | Price & Basis | Change | Corn Starch | Price & Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2165 | 0 | Shandong | 2750 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2250 | 0 | Jilin | 2550 | 0 | | Harbin | 2010 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2450 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main - Contract Basis | 30 | 21 | Shandong Main - Contract Basis | 306 | 9 | [3] Futures Market Prices - Specific price data for different contracts of corn and corn starch on November 03 and 04, 2025, are provided, including prices, changes, and change rates. For example, the corn 11 contract closed at 2129 yuan on November 03 and 2120 yuan on November 04, with a change of - 9 yuan and a change rate of - 0.42% [6]. U.S. Corn Price and Import Profit | | Price | Daily Change | Increase | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main - Contract | 430.75 | - 4 | - 0.92% | | | COBT Soybean Main - Contract | 1120.25 | - 14.25 | - 1.26% | | | CBOT Wheat Main - Contract | 550 | 5.25 | 0.96% | | | U.S. Gulf Port CIF Duty - Paid Price | 2151.26 | 0.92 | 0.04% | 98.74 | | U.S. West Coast CIF Duty - Paid Price | 2035.3 | 0.87 | 0.04% | 214.7 | [30]

南华期货玉米&淀粉产业日报 2025年11月04日 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 玉米&淀粉价格区间预测 进入11月份，玉米收获作业逐步收官，新粮上市首轮卖压高峰度过，价格先跌后反弹，韧性有所加强； 产区表现各异，东北产区获得国储收购托市，价格经历10月中上旬下跌后转入稳定状态，华北产区10月遭遇 降雨影响后逐步恢复正常，降雨导致的卖压前移导致价格阶段性急跌，随着购销恢复，卖压经过前期释放出 现减弱，导致价格上涨，近几日山东到车逐步减少，企业连续提价收购，玉米现货市场气氛渐稳，卖压逐步 转向分散，价格承压有所缓解； 近两日玉米期现价格出现共振上行，市场气氛有所回升，尤其是连盘玉米连续两日中阳走升，周一玉米盘面 延续周五涨势，全面上扬，主力01合约收于2141元，上涨23元/吨，成交量小幅放大，持仓量减少，注册仓单 持平于63966手；淀粉盘面涨势略强于玉米，主力01合约收于2453元，涨幅1.11%； 周一，CBOT玉米期货小幅收涨，出口检验报告数据良好及大豆继续上涨带来支撑； 【利多因素】 1、卖压趋于分散，价格压力有所减轻； 【利 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View The report presents the basis data of various commodities as of October 31, 2025, including macro, black, energy - chemical, non - ferrous, and agricultural products, aiming to show the price relationship between spot and futures of different commodities [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - IF: Spot price was 4641, down 69. Basis was 9, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.26 [2]. - IH: Spot price was 3012, down 35. Basis was - 4, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.56 [2]. - IC: Spot price was 7331, down 55. Basis was 89, corresponding to the 2512 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.75 [2]. Black - For example, Shanghai's rebar spot price was 3230, unchanged. Basis was 124, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.48 [3]. - Tianjin Port's coke spot price was 1710, unchanged. Basis was - 67, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.45 [3]. Energy - Chemical - Port methanol spot price was 2125, unchanged. Basis was - 55, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.88 [3]. - East China's PTA spot price was 4514, up 16. Basis was - 72, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.68 [3]. Non - Ferrous - Copper spot price was 87540, down 510. Basis was 0, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.26 [4]. - Aluminum spot price was 21280, up 80. Basis was 0, corresponding to a third - party provided contract, with a basis deviation of 0.27 [4]. Agricultural Products - Jiangsu's 43% soybean meal spot price was 2970, up 30. Basis was - 51, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of - 0.21 [5]. - Jiangsu's first - grade soybean oil spot price was 8460, up 60. Basis was 332, corresponding to the 2601 contract, with a basis deviation of 0.25 [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the South China Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily on October 31, 2025, written by Dai Hongxu and research assistant Kang Quangui [1] Group 2: Core Views - New - season corn harvest is nearing completion in October, with grain sales and circulation peaking. After the concentrated listing in October, the bottom of corn prices is emerging, and the current price is in a consolidation phase with limited upward and downward driving forces [2] - Corn prices in major producing areas remained stable yesterday. In the Northeast, state - reserve purchases signaled price support, curbing the selling sentiment of upstream suppliers and weakening the downward price momentum, while downstream buyers were more active. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, prices were also stable. As the low - quality grain affected by precipitation was gradually sold, the price of high - quality corn remained firm. In the sales areas, arrivals increased, but downstream buyers were cautious, mostly purchasing as needed with weak short - term inventory - building intentions, providing limited price support [2] - On Thursday, the corn futures market oscillated weakly. The main 01 contract closed at 2111 yuan, with slightly increased trading volume and open interest, and 63,966 registered warrants. The starch futures market also weakened, with the main 01 contract closing at 2419 yuan [2] Group 3: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The first peak of new - season corn listing has passed, and prices are stabilizing [6] - State - reserve purchases in the Northeast have significantly supported prices, limiting price declines [6] - The reduction of high - quality corn in North China will gradually become apparent over time, supporting the expectation of stronger long - term prices [6] Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs support the feed demand at a relatively good level. Attention should also be paid to whether the news of the wheat directional auction in November will affect corn prices [3] - The supply level remains high in the fourth quarter, and prices are consolidating at a low level [3] - Sino - US negotiations have achieved good progress, and relevant national departments have confirmed that China and the US have reached a consensus on expanding agricultural product trade. Attention should be paid to whether it extends to the corn variety [3] Group 4: Price Forecast and Market Data Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for corn is in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 8.82% and a volatility percentile of 23.6%. The monthly price forecast for starch is in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.92% and a volatility percentile of 4.92% [4] Spot Price and Basis - In the corn market, the price at Jinzhou Port is 2130 yuan (down 10 yuan), at Shekou Port is 2250 yuan (unchanged), and in Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). The basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract is 19 yuan (down 5 yuan). In the corn starch market, the price in Shandong is 2740 yuan (unchanged), in Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and in Heilongjiang is 2460 yuan (unchanged). The basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract is 321 yuan (up 8 yuan) [4] Futures Price - For corn futures, the 11 - contract price changed from 2101 to 2103 yuan (up 2 yuan, 0.10%), the 01 - contract from 2116 to 2111 yuan (down 5 yuan, - 0.24%), the 03 - contract from 2145 to 2141 yuan (down 4 yuan, - 0.19%), the 05 - contract from 2221 to 2213 yuan (down 8 yuan, - 0.36%), the 07 - contract from 2244 to 2238 yuan (down 6 yuan, - 0.27%), and the 09 - contract remained at 2247 yuan (unchanged). For corn starch futures, the 11 - contract price changed from 2438 to 2431 yuan (down 7 yuan, - 0.29%), the 01 - contract from 2427 to 2419 yuan (down 8 yuan, - 0.33%), the 03 - contract from 2438 to 2429 yuan (down 9 yuan, - 0.37%), the 05 - contract from 2540 to 2530 yuan (down 10 yuan, - 0.39%), the 07 - contract from 2558 to 2548 yuan (down 10 yuan, - 0.39%), and the 09 - contract from 2590 to 2584 yuan (down 6 yuan, - 0.23%). The average wheat price rose from 2500 to 2504 yuan (up 4 yuan, 0.16%) [7] US Corn Market - The price of CBOT corn main - continuous contract was 429.5 (down 5, - 1.15%), COBT soybean main - continuous contract was 1107 (up 13.75, 1.26%), CBOT wheat main - continuous contract was 524.25 (down 9.25, - 1.73%). The duty - paid price at the US Gulf was 2154.54 yuan (up 5.9, 0.27%) with an import profit of 95.46 yuan, and the duty - paid price at the US West Coast was 2032.78 yuan (up 5.91, 0.29%) with an import profit of 217.22 yuan [30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View No explicit core view presented in the given content. The report mainly provides detailed data on the basis of various commodities. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Macro - On October 24, 2025, the spot price of IF was 4661 with a change of 55, the basis was 26 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.62 [2] - The spot price of IH was 3046 with a change of 19, the basis was -3 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.41 [2] - The spot price of IC was 7259 with a change of 116, the basis was 99 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.81 [2] Black - In Shanghai on October 24, 2025, the spot price of rebar was 3200 with a change of -20, the basis was 154 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.83 [3] - In Beijing, the spot price of rebar was 3190 with a change of 10, the basis was 144 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.12 [3] - In Shanghai, the spot price of hot - rolled coil was 3290 with no change, the basis was 40 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.63 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of ore was 825 with a change of -6, the basis was 54, and the basis deviation was 0.46 [3] - At Tianjin Port, the spot price of coke was 1656 with no change, the basis was -102 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.64 [3] - For port warehouse receipts of coking coal, the spot price was 1617 with a change of 3, the basis was 369 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.80 [3] - At Qinhuangdao Port, the spot price of steam coal was 769 with a change of 2, the basis was -32 corresponding to the 2511 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.17 [3] - For low - price glass in Shahe, the spot price was 1104 with no change, the basis was 12 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.14 [3] - For low - price glass in Hubei, the spot price was 1070 with no change, the basis was -22 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.15 [3] - In Yinchuan, the spot price of ferrosilicon was 5600 with a change of 20, the basis was -62 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.58 [3] - In Inner Mongolia, the spot price of ferromanganese was 6050 with no change, the basis was 208 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.74 [3] Energy and Chemicals - For port methanol on October 24, 2025, the spot price was 2232 with no change, the basis was -40, and the basis deviation was -0.87 [3] - In Henan, the spot price of methanol was 2350 with no change, the basis was 78 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.40 [3] - In southern Shandong, the spot price of methanol was 2485 with no change, the basis was 213 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.55 [3] - In Hebei, the spot price of methanol was 2785 with no change, the basis was 513 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.97 [3] - In East China, the spot price of PTA was 4436 with a change of 13, the basis was -82, and the basis deviation was -0.83 [3] - In East China, the spot price of PP was 6575 with a change of 15, the basis was -87, and the basis deviation was -0.67 [3] - In North China, the spot price of LLDPE was 6910 with a change of -10, the basis was -59, and the basis deviation was -0.20 [3] - For high - end PVC, the spot price was 4625 with no change, the basis was -90, and the basis deviation was 0.64 [3] - For low - end PVC, the spot price was 4555 with no change, the basis was -160, and the basis deviation was 0.72 [3] - In East China, the spot price of asphalt was 3500 with no change, the basis was 201 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.22 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of asphalt was 3350 with a change of 20, the basis was 131 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.09 [3] - In South China, the spot price of asphalt was 3500 with no change, the basis was 201 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.49 [3] - For domestic ethylene glycol, the spot price was 4172 with a change of -13, the basis was 95, and the basis deviation was 0.87 [3] - The spot price of soda ash was 1150 with no change, the basis was -79 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.57 [3] - In Shandong, the spot price of pulp was 4990 with a change of -10, the basis was -250 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.92 [3] - In East China, the spot price of staple fiber was 6180 with a change of 30, the basis was 40 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.49 [3] - The spot price of urea was 1490 with no change, the basis was -152 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.96 [3] - In Shanghai, the spot price of natural rubber was 14960 with a change of 80, the basis was -375 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.63 [3] - For whole latex natural rubber, the spot price was 14635 with a change of 90, the basis was -700 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.56 [3] - In Qingdao, the spot price of 20 - number rubber was 1855 with a change of 25, the basis was 707 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.96 [3] - The spot price of styrene was 6515 with a change of -45, the basis was -24 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.98 [3] Non - ferrous Metals - On October 24, 2025, the spot price of copper was 86475 with a change of 975, the basis was 10, and the basis deviation was -0.18 [4] - The spot price of international copper was 76775 with a change of 1080, the basis was -1385 corresponding to the 2511 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.76 [4] - The spot price of aluminum was 21110 with a change of 70, the basis was -30, and the basis deviation was -0.22 [4] - The spot price of zinc was 22190 with a change of 90, the basis was -60, and the basis deviation was -0.82 [4] - The spot price of lead was 17300 with a change of 175, the basis was -215, and the basis deviation was -0.43 [4] - The spot price of nickel was 122050 with a change of 750, the basis was 400, and the basis deviation was 0.76 [4] - The spot price of tin was 281900 with a change of 1900, the basis was -2400, and the basis deviation was -0.85 [4] Agricultural Products - In Jiangsu on October 24, 2025, the spot price of 43% soybean meal was 2910 with no change, the basis was -23 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.07 [5] - In Jiangsu, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8440 with a change of 30, the basis was 246 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.10 [5] - The average spot price of 36% rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 2460 with a change of -10, the basis was 135 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.90 [5] - The market average spot price of rapeseed oil was 10283 with no change, the basis was 522 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.98 [5] - In Guangzhou, the spot price of 24° palm oil was 9050 with a change of 50, the basis was -72 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.88 [5] - The national spot price of cotton was 14555 with a change of -20, the basis was 1015 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.57 [5] - In Guangxi, the spot price of white sugar was 5750 with no change, the basis was 304 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.06 [5] - In Yunnan, the spot price of white sugar was 5830 with no change, the basis was 384 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.50 [5] - In Shijiazhuang, Hebei, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2960 with a change of 90, the basis was -126 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.47 [5] - In Dalian, Liaoning, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2890 with a change of 90, the basis was -196 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.54 [5] - In Dezhou, Shandong, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2750 with a change of 100, the basis was -336 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.68 [5] - In Shangqiu, Henan, the spot price of fresh eggs was 2800 with a change of 100, the basis was -286 corresponding to the 2512 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.70 [5] - In Bei'an, the spot price of soybeans was 4060 with no change, the basis was -44 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.80 [5] - In Jiamusi, the spot price of soybeans was 4140 with no change, the basis was 36 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.45 [5] - In Changchun, the spot price of corn was 2240 with no change, the basis was 107 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.47 [5] - In Weifang, the spot price of corn was 2360 with no change, the basis was 227 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.48 [5] - In Changchun, the spot price of starch was 2580 with no change, the basis was 109 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.12 [5] - In Weifang, the spot price of starch was 2605 with no change, the basis was 174 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was 0.60 [5] - In Kaifeng, Henan, the spot price of live pigs was 11850 with a change of -80, the basis was -325 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.92 [5] - In Hebei, the spot price of red dates was 9600 with no change, the basis was -1150 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.55 [5] - In Shandong, the spot price of apples was 6400 with no change, the basis was -2450 corresponding to the 2601 contract, and the basis deviation was -0.98 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the basis data of various futures varieties on October 20, 2025, including macro, black, energy - chemical, non - ferrous, and agricultural products. It shows the spot price, spot price change, basis, basis - corresponding contract, and basis deviation degree of each variety [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - The spot price of IF on October 20, 2025, was 4538, with a change of 24, a basis of 31, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.76 [2]. - The spot price of IH was 2975, with a change of 7, a basis of 4, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.44 [2]. - The spot price of IC was 7070, with a change of 54, a basis of 160, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.96 [2]. Black - For Shanghai's rebar, the spot price on October 20, 2025, was 3200, with no change, a basis of 155, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.84 [3]. - Beijing's rebar had a spot price of 3190, a change of - 10, a basis of 145, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.14 [3]. - Shanghai's hot - rolled coil had a spot price of 3270, no change, a basis of 55, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.80 [3]. - Shandong's iron ore had a spot price of 824, no change, a basis of 57, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.46 [3]. - Tianjin Port's coke had a spot price of 1656, no change, a basis of - 54, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.40 [3]. - Port - warehouse receipt coking coal had a spot price of 1600, a change of 72, a basis of 312, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.32 [3]. - Qinhuangdao Port's thermal coal had a spot price of 753, a change of 9, a basis of - 48, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.26 [3]. - Shahe's low - price glass had a spot price of 1135, a change of - 15, a basis of 44, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.36 [3]. - Hubei's low - price glass had a spot price of 1090, a change of - 20, a basis of - 1, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.28 [3]. - Yinchuan's ferrosilicon had a spot price of 5530, no change, a basis of - 26, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.34 [3]. - Inner Mongolia's ferromanganese had a spot price of 6050, no change, a basis of 262, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.91 [3]. Energy - Chemical - Port methanol had a spot price of 2256, no change, a basis of - 10, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.59 [3]. - Henan methanol had a spot price of 2350, no change, a basis of 84, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.47 [3]. - Lunan methanol had a spot price of 2500, no change, a basis of 234, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.70 [3]. - Hebei methanol had a spot price of 2630, no change, a basis of 364, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.86 [3]. - East China PTA had a spot price of 4299, a change of - 18, a basis of - 85, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.88 [3]. - East China PP had a spot price of 6490, a change of 20, a basis of - 75, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.59 [3]. - North China LLDPE had a spot price of 6840, a change of 10, a basis of - 39, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.10 [3]. - High - end PVC had a spot price of 4630, a change of 15, a basis of - 90, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.65 [3]. - Low - end PVC had a spot price of 4560, a change of 45, a basis of - 160, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.72 [3]. - East China asphalt had a spot price of 3550, no change, a basis of 409, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [3]. - Shandong asphalt had a spot price of 3330, a change of - 30, a basis of 269, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.72 [3]. - South China asphalt had a spot price of 3500, no change, a basis of 359, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [3]. - Inner - market ethylene glycol had a spot price of 4077, no change, a basis of 74, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.70 [3]. - Soda ash had a spot price of 1130, a change of 10, a basis of - 89, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.67 [3]. - Shandong pulp had a spot price of 4960, a change of 10, a basis of - 196, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.74 [3]. - East China short - fiber had a spot price of 6075, a change of - 25, a basis of 47, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 0.56 [3]. - Urea had a spot price of 1490, no change, a basis of - 110, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.88 [3]. - Shanghai natural rubber had a spot price of 14510, a change of 30, a basis of - 300, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.74 [3]. - Whole - latex natural rubber had a spot price of 13810, a change of 115, a basis of - 1000, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.04 [3]. - Qingdao 20 - number rubber had a spot price of 1825, a change of 10, a basis of 773, a basis - corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation degree of 1.00 [3]. - Styrene had a spot price of 6370, a change of - 115, a basis of 5, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.90 [3]. Non - Ferrous - Copper had a spot price of 85650, a change of 875, a basis of 75, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.30 [4]. - International copper had a spot price of 75790, a change of 710, a basis of - 80, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.69 [4]. - Aluminum had a spot price of 20930, a change of - 20, a basis of 10, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.45 [4]. - Zinc had a spot price of 21870, a change of 20, a basis of - 40, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.60 [4]. - Lead had a spot price of 16925, a change of 25, a basis of - 200, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.31 [4]. - Nickel had a spot price of 121300, a change of - 250, a basis of 400, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.78 [4]. - Tin had a spot price of 280000, a change of - 1000, a basis of 660, a basis - corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation degree of 0.35 [4]. Agricultural Products - 43% Jiangsu soybean meal had a spot price of 2870, no change, a basis of - 25, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.08 [5]. - Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil had a spot price of 8540, a change of 50, a basis of 242, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.12 [5]. - Guangdong average - price 36% rapeseed meal had a spot price of 2480, a change of 40, a basis of 130, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [5]. - Market average - price rapeseed oil had a spot price of 10420, a change of 77, a basis of 502, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 1.00 [5]. - Guangzhou 24° palm oil had a spot price of 9290, a change of 80, a basis of - 28, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.75 [5]. - National cotton had a spot price of 14480, a change of 45, a basis of 1015, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.58 [5]. - Guangxi white sugar had a spot price of 5770, a change of - 20, a basis of 342, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.26 [5]. - Yunnan white sugar had a spot price of 5840, a change of - 20, a basis of 412, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.58 [5]. - Hebei Shijiazhuang fresh eggs had a spot price of 2890, a change of - 110, a basis of 120, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.05 [5]. - Liaoning Dalian fresh eggs had a spot price of 2820, a change of - 110, a basis of 50, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.16 [5]. - Shandong Dezhou fresh eggs had a spot price of 2750, a change of - 100, a basis of - 20, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.24 [5]. - Henan Shangqiu fresh eggs had a spot price of 2800, a change of - 100, a basis of 30, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.36 [5]. - Bei'an soybeans had a spot price of 4050, no change, a basis of - 36, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.78 [5]. - Jiamusi soybeans had a spot price of 4120, no change, a basis of 34, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.45 [5]. - Changchun corn had a spot price of 2240, no change, a basis of 102, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.44 [5]. - Weifang corn had a spot price of 2360, no change, a basis of 222, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of 0.45 [5]. - Changchun starch had a spot price of 2580, no change, a basis of 170, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.67 [5]. - Weifang starch had a spot price of 2605, no change, a basis of 225, a basis - corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation degree of 0.88 [5]. - Henan Kaifeng pigs had a spot price of 11400, a change of 160, a basis of - 755, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.94 [5]. - Hebei jujubes had a spot price of 9600, no change, a basis of - 1785, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.84 [5]. - Shandong apples had a spot price of 6400, a change of - 1000, a basis of - 2465, a basis - corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation degree of - 0.98 [5].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market trends of various sectors during the National Day holiday in 2025, including macro - colored, energy and chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors. Most sectors show a complex situation of supply - demand imbalance, with some facing supply pressure and others having weak demand. Market trends are affected by factors such as policies, international macro - situations, and seasonal characteristics, and most sectors are expected to show short - term oscillatory trends [2][8][21]. Summary by Sector Macro - Colored Sector - **Stock Index**: A - share market showed strong growth before the holiday, up 6.7%, hitting a high since 1987. Policies are expected to attract incremental funds [2]. - **Copper**: International macro - situation fluctuates greatly due to the US government debt issue and political changes in other countries. Gold, silver, copper, and aluminum prices rise, while there are no major domestic changes [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and the supply pressure is still large. Although LME zinc rebounds during the holiday, SHFE zinc is under pressure at high levels [3]. - **Lead**: LME lead fluctuates widely during the holiday. Domestic lead supply pressure increases, and demand in the peak season is not good, with a weak oscillatory trend expected [4]. - **Tin**: LME tin rises during the holiday. Supply is tight due to slow mine resumption in Myanmar and disruptions in Indonesia. The tight supply pattern is expected to continue until mid - month [5]. - **Gold and Silver**: Precious metals rise during the holiday, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and international macro - uncertainties. However, gold is in an overbought state [6]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **PTA**: Oil prices fall and then rebound during the holiday. PTA has low processing fees, weak cost support, and insufficient downstream demand, expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **MEG**: There are many changes in domestic and overseas devices. Supply pressure is large, and cost drive is poor, with prices expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are expected to oscillate weakly following raw materials, with limited processing fee improvement space [8][9]. - **Urea**: The market is weak during the holiday. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the market is expected to be under pressure [10]. - **Paper Pulp**: The market is stable during the holiday. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [11]. - **PVC**: There is a gap between policy expectations and fundamentals. Supply pressure is not relieved, demand is weak, and it is difficult to find positive factors [12]. - **Glass**: The market shows a trend of rising first and then falling. Supply may tighten, but demand is insufficient after the holiday, and fundamental positives are not sustainable [12][13]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is under pressure. The price lacks upward momentum in the long term [14]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure, but there is some support from alumina's demand expectations [15]. - **Rubber**: Typhoon may reduce supply, but terminal demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. - **PX**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on downstream demand and profit changes [16][17]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices fall before the holiday. Downstream demand is not as expected, and there is an over - supply expectation [18]. - **Styrene**: Prices fall before the holiday. The market is in a wide - balance state with a tendency to accumulate inventory, and the weak situation is difficult to change after the holiday [19]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: US cotton prices fall during the holiday. Domestic cotton purchase is stable, but demand is weak. Cotton prices are expected to have limited downward space after the holiday [21][22]. - **Sugar**: US raw sugar oscillates during the holiday. Production in some regions may increase, and Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but is under pressure [23]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rebound during the holiday. Domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly [24]. - **Soybean Oil**: US soybean harvest begins. Domestic production and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [25]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil may enter the production - reduction season early. Supply and demand are both affected, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Rapeseed Products**: Canadian rapeseed imports decrease, and domestic rapeseed oil production increases with inventory reduction, expected to oscillate [26]. - **Corn and Starch**: US corn oscillates slightly. Domestic supply may be affected by weather, and demand is strong. Corn prices may first fall and then rise [27]. - **Hogs**: Pig prices are low, and the breeding loss expands. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [28]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are stable during the holiday. High存栏 may lead to price pressure after the holiday [28]. - **Logs**: Log prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to seasonal factors, but downstream demand is weak [29]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills' profitability decreases, but production and demand show different trends. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [31]. - **Iron Ore**: The market shows a small increase. Supply is stable, and demand has support, focusing on supply and demand changes [31]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand change little, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is weak and stable during the holiday. Supply and demand are both stable, and the market is expected to oscillate after the holiday [31]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply exceeds expectations, demand may decrease, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [33]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are weak and stable. They are expected to oscillate within a range after the holiday [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important news, and financial market conditions across various sectors including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also highlights significant events such as geopolitical tensions, economic data releases, and corporate announcements that may impact the markets. Summary by Category Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.90% at $3,719.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.84% at $43.19 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices edged up, with the U.S. oil main contract up 0.94% at $63.28 per barrel and Brent crude up 0.69% at $67.45 per barrel [3]. - Most London base metals closed higher, with LME copper up 1.21% at $10,189 per ton, hitting a 15 - month high [3]. - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose, with coking coal up over 5%, coke and glass up over 4%, and soda ash up over 3% [4]. Important News Macroeconomic News - China's real - estate market is moving towards stabilization, with narrowing year - on - year declines in property sales and prices [7]. - Hamas has suspended cease - fire and hostage - exchange talks with Israel [7]. - China opposes U.S. economic coercion and trade restrictions [7]. - Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks are ongoing [8]. - The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) dropped 8.1% [8]. - The U.S. is opening a tariff "inclusion window" for steel and aluminum derivatives [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 15, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 6.94% month - on - month [12]. - The EU is considering sanctions on Indian companies involved in Russian oil trade [13]. - Ukraine's drone attack on Russia's Primorsk port has ended, and the port has resumed operations [14]. Metal Futures - Xinjiang's latest alumina spot tender was 10,000 tons at a price of 3,220 - 3,230 yuan per ton [16]. - Gold prices have soared 39% this year [18]. - Two smelters in Guangxi and Jiangxi will suspend domestic silver supply this week [19]. - Some lead smelters in the north may start winter stockpiling earlier [19]. Black - series Futures - China's August steel production data showed mixed trends, with crude steel down 0.7% year - on - year, pig iron up 1.0%, and steel up 9.7% [21]. - From January to August, real - estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [21]. - Two coal mines in Shanxi and Linfen have suspended production [21][22]. - Global iron ore shipments increased from September 8 - 14 [24]. - Some steel mills in Hebei lowered their coke purchase prices [24]. Agricultural Futures - As of September 12, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased [27]. - Canada's rapeseed exports decreased in the week ending September 7 [27]. - Malaysia's Sabah state was hit by landslides and floods [27]. - As of September 12, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil decreased slightly, while palm oil increased [29]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 increased by 2.6% [30]. - India's vegetable oil imports increased in August [30]. - As of September 15, the national inventory of imported soybeans at ports increased [31]. - U.S. soybean and corn export inspection volumes increased in the week ending September 11 [31]. - In August, the U.S. soybean crush volume and豆油 inventory showed specific changes [31]. - As of September 14, the U.S. soybean's good - to - excellent rate, harvest rate, and leaf - fall rate were reported [32]. Financial Market Stock Market - A - shares showed a divergent trend on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.26% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.63% [35]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.22%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.91% [35]. - Hesai Technology's global share offering had high subscription rates [35]. - BeBeBus's parent company launched an IPO [35]. - U.S. stocks closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs [45]. - Google's market value exceeded $3 trillion [45]. - The South Korean Composite Index hit a new high [46]. - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk bought over 2.5 million shares of Tesla [48]. Bond Market - China's bond yields showed mixed trends, and treasury bond futures closed higher [51]. - U.S. bond yields fell across the board [52]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar depreciated slightly on Monday [53]. - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.26% [53]. Events Schedule - The U.S. Senate will vote on the nomination of a Fed governor at 08:00 [56]. - China's central bank has 247 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing at 09:20 [56]. - There are several press conferences and important events scheduled throughout the day [56].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: Supportive policies are gradually taking effect. Policies to boost service consumption in September are in focus, and real - estate policies are advancing. However, the impact on the overall market may be limited. The improvement in economic sentiment in July was marginal, and industrial profit repair will take time [2]. - **Overseas Economy**: The US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, indicating a "soft landing." The low JOLTS job openings in July have increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to employment and inflation data this week. The long - term government bond yields in the UK, Germany, and France have reached new highs, and the potential "credit crisis" in the global market should be monitored [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The key issue of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is the rhythm control. The spot exchange rate is likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium level, and it is less likely to return to the "6 era" in the short term [4]. - **Stock Index**: The external pressure on the A - share market has weakened. With the support of domestic policies and loose liquidity, the downside space of the stock index is expected to be limited [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market's bottom may be further consolidated, but caution is needed regarding the upward space [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term prices are strong, and investors can maintain a strategy of buying on dips [12]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the expectation of interest - rate cuts in the US [14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term but face resistance above. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and casting aluminum alloy prices may be supported [16][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom in the short term, and an internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy can be considered [20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices have corrected recently. The medium - term trend depends on demand recovery, and the impact of Indonesia's riots is limited [21][22]. - **Tin**: Tin prices may rise slightly in the short term due to tight supply [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak - oscillating phase, and the key is to observe the downstream's actual purchasing demand [24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and polysilicon is in a wide - range oscillating pattern [27]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with sufficient support at the bottom [28]. - **Black Metals**: The fundamentals of steel products remain weak, and the price trend is bearish. Iron ore prices are supported after the resumption of steel mills, and the coke and coking coal markets are looking for support downward [32][33][34]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are under pressure due to the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production. The LPG market is affected by overseas factors, and the PTA - PX market is weakening with the overall commodity sentiment and oil prices. Other energy - chemical products also show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [38][40][42][44] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US JOLTS job openings data is weak, and the Fed's officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The global bond market is experiencing a sell - off, and the eurozone's PMI has been slightly revised down [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed higher in the previous trading day. The US job openings in July dropped to a 10 - month low, increasing the expectation of interest - rate cuts [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index declined with shrinking volume yesterday. The weak JOLTS data in the US has strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, reducing the external pressure on the A - share market [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market closed higher yesterday. The decline in the stock market has led to an increase in the bond market's gains at the end of the session [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) declined with the drop in the spot price. It is expected to continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [7][8]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The precious metals market continued to rise on Wednesday. The low JOLTS data in the US has increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The market is focusing on economic data and events this week. The medium - to long - term trend may be bullish [9][10][11][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose and then fell on Wednesday, mainly due to the US economic situation. It may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the expectation of interest - rate cuts [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The price may fluctuate strongly in the short term but face resistance above. The supply and demand situation is affected by production capacity and seasonal factors [16]. - **Alumina**: The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the price is under pressure. The impact of environmental protection restrictions is short - term [17]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the cancellation of tax - return policies [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price opened low and lacked upward momentum. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is stable. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [19][20]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel corrected on the day. The market is affected by factors such as the Indonesian benchmark price and the EU's stainless - steel tariff policy [20][21][22]. - **Tin**: The tin price has been rising recently due to tight supply. The production has decreased due to maintenance and reduced imports of tin concentrates [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate declined on Wednesday. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, and the market is in a weak - oscillating phase [24]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price is oscillating, and the polysilicon futures price is in a wide - range oscillating pattern. Their prices are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and seasonal factors [25][26][27]. - **Lead**: The lead price opened low and closed high, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is weak, and the demand is in a "not - prosperous in the peak season" situation [28]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have reached new lows recently. The supply exceeds the demand, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. The market is bearish [30][31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price has rebounded, and the term structure is in a positive - spread arbitrage. The resumption of steel mills after the parade has supported the price, but the upside space is limited [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke prices are looking for support downward. The supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow, and the coking coal inventory structure has deteriorated [34]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply of silicon iron and silicon manganese is loose, and the prices are oscillating at the bottom. The profit has declined, and there is a possibility of production reduction [36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped significantly due to the possible production increase by OPEC+. The uncertainty of OPEC+'s production decision will be an important factor affecting the price next week [38][39][40]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuates with the crude oil price. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand has little change. The market is affected by overseas factors [42]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices of PX and PTA have weakened with the overall commodity sentiment and the decline in the crude oil price. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the profit is under pressure [44][45][46]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at a low level. The supply and demand are in a state of change, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly. The bottle - chip demand is not good [48][49]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is mainly affected by the high - volume shipments from Iran and the port inventory pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and short put options [51][52]. - **PP**: The supply of polypropylene is increasing, and the demand is uncertain. The future trend depends on whether the downstream demand can maintain a high growth rate [54][55]. - **PE**: The polyethylene market is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate [56][57][58]. - **PVC**: The PVC price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [59][60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have stopped falling. The supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, and the supply of styrene will change in different periods. Short - term short - selling is not recommended [61][62][64]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is waiting for the guidance of the OPEC meeting. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable. The price is under pressure from the spot market [65]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt supply is stable, but the demand is affected by rainfall and capital shortage. It is mainly following the cost fluctuation in the short term [67][68]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The rubber market is in a multi - empty stalemate. The price is affected by factors such as the crude oil price, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic data. It is expected to oscillate widely [69][70][71]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is in a weak supply - demand situation. The market is waiting for the Indian tender news. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [72][73]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The soda ash inventory has decreased slightly. The market situation is relatively weak [74].