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弘业期货:十一假期综述宏观有色板块
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 05:35
十一假期综述 宏观有色板块 【股指】 在国庆假期,市场表现引人瞩目,主要股指在假期前夕普遍上涨,其中 A 股市场更是展 现出强劲的增长势头,涨幅达到 6.7%,刷新了自 1987 年以来的高点。假期内,多项政 策利好消息持续释放。央行于10月9日将进行11000亿元的买断式逆回购,期限为三个 月,旨在维持市场流动性。此外,市场也对"十四五"资本市场规划的高质量实施寄予 厚望。预计在政策的引导和市场情绪的激励下,A 股市场将迎来增量资金的积极入场。 【铜】 【锌】 预计国内旺季需求不如预期,供应压力缓解有限,沪锌反弹高度有限。 国庆期间伦锌持续反弹突破前高。美元国庆早期连续几天弱势回落,海外锌库存持续回 落,伦锌持续走强。但近日美元再次转强,沪锌高位承压。国内锌矿加工费环比走弱, 但矿端供应仍偏宽松,国内锌供应压力仍较大,国内库存回落后仍在近年来相对高位。 【铅】 国庆期间伦铅冲高回落,呈宽幅震荡走势。伦铅库存回落,仍在近五年绝对高位。国内 再生铅利润修复,原生铅检修后逐步复产,整体铅供应压力加大。节前备货需求一般, 国内库存下降至低位,不过今年旺季需求并未有明显气起色。后期供应修复增加压力较 强,铅震荡偏弱。 ...
资讯早间报-20250916
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 01:55
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/09/16 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨,COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.90%报 3719.50 美元/盎司, COMEX 白银期货涨 0.84%报 43.19 美元/盎司。美国总统特朗普施压美联储降息 引发市场担忧,美国就业数据恶化强化降息预期。中美经贸磋商取得进展但地 缘政治紧张局势升级,推升市场避险情绪。 2. 国际油价小幅走强,美油主力合约收涨 0.94%,报 63.28 美元/桶;布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.69%,报 67.45 美元/桶。乌克兰加大对俄罗斯石油基础设施的 攻击力度,引发供应担忧,推动油价上行。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数收涨,LME 期铜涨 1.21%报 10189 美元/吨,创 15 个月以 来新高;LME期锌涨0.85%报2982美元/吨,LME期镍涨0.22%报15425美元/吨, LME 期铝涨 0.56%报 2704.5 美元/吨。 美元指数下跌使得以美元计价的金属对 非美货币买家更具吸引力。 4. 国内期货主力合约大面 ...
金融期货早评-20250904
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 03:28
Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: Supportive policies are gradually taking effect. Policies to boost service consumption in September are in focus, and real - estate policies are advancing. However, the impact on the overall market may be limited. The improvement in economic sentiment in July was marginal, and industrial profit repair will take time [2]. - **Overseas Economy**: The US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, indicating a "soft landing." The low JOLTS job openings in July have increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to employment and inflation data this week. The long - term government bond yields in the UK, Germany, and France have reached new highs, and the potential "credit crisis" in the global market should be monitored [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The key issue of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is the rhythm control. The spot exchange rate is likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium level, and it is less likely to return to the "6 era" in the short term [4]. - **Stock Index**: The external pressure on the A - share market has weakened. With the support of domestic policies and loose liquidity, the downside space of the stock index is expected to be limited [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market's bottom may be further consolidated, but caution is needed regarding the upward space [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term prices are strong, and investors can maintain a strategy of buying on dips [12]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the expectation of interest - rate cuts in the US [14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term but face resistance above. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and casting aluminum alloy prices may be supported [16][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom in the short term, and an internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy can be considered [20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices have corrected recently. The medium - term trend depends on demand recovery, and the impact of Indonesia's riots is limited [21][22]. - **Tin**: Tin prices may rise slightly in the short term due to tight supply [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak - oscillating phase, and the key is to observe the downstream's actual purchasing demand [24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and polysilicon is in a wide - range oscillating pattern [27]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with sufficient support at the bottom [28]. - **Black Metals**: The fundamentals of steel products remain weak, and the price trend is bearish. Iron ore prices are supported after the resumption of steel mills, and the coke and coking coal markets are looking for support downward [32][33][34]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are under pressure due to the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production. The LPG market is affected by overseas factors, and the PTA - PX market is weakening with the overall commodity sentiment and oil prices. Other energy - chemical products also show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [38][40][42][44] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US JOLTS job openings data is weak, and the Fed's officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The global bond market is experiencing a sell - off, and the eurozone's PMI has been slightly revised down [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed higher in the previous trading day. The US job openings in July dropped to a 10 - month low, increasing the expectation of interest - rate cuts [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index declined with shrinking volume yesterday. The weak JOLTS data in the US has strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, reducing the external pressure on the A - share market [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market closed higher yesterday. The decline in the stock market has led to an increase in the bond market's gains at the end of the session [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) declined with the drop in the spot price. It is expected to continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [7][8]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The precious metals market continued to rise on Wednesday. The low JOLTS data in the US has increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The market is focusing on economic data and events this week. The medium - to long - term trend may be bullish [9][10][11][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose and then fell on Wednesday, mainly due to the US economic situation. It may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the expectation of interest - rate cuts [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The price may fluctuate strongly in the short term but face resistance above. The supply and demand situation is affected by production capacity and seasonal factors [16]. - **Alumina**: The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the price is under pressure. The impact of environmental protection restrictions is short - term [17]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the cancellation of tax - return policies [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price opened low and lacked upward momentum. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is stable. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [19][20]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel corrected on the day. The market is affected by factors such as the Indonesian benchmark price and the EU's stainless - steel tariff policy [20][21][22]. - **Tin**: The tin price has been rising recently due to tight supply. The production has decreased due to maintenance and reduced imports of tin concentrates [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate declined on Wednesday. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, and the market is in a weak - oscillating phase [24]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price is oscillating, and the polysilicon futures price is in a wide - range oscillating pattern. Their prices are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and seasonal factors [25][26][27]. - **Lead**: The lead price opened low and closed high, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is weak, and the demand is in a "not - prosperous in the peak season" situation [28]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have reached new lows recently. The supply exceeds the demand, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. The market is bearish [30][31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price has rebounded, and the term structure is in a positive - spread arbitrage. The resumption of steel mills after the parade has supported the price, but the upside space is limited [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke prices are looking for support downward. The supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow, and the coking coal inventory structure has deteriorated [34]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply of silicon iron and silicon manganese is loose, and the prices are oscillating at the bottom. The profit has declined, and there is a possibility of production reduction [36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped significantly due to the possible production increase by OPEC+. The uncertainty of OPEC+'s production decision will be an important factor affecting the price next week [38][39][40]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuates with the crude oil price. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand has little change. The market is affected by overseas factors [42]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices of PX and PTA have weakened with the overall commodity sentiment and the decline in the crude oil price. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the profit is under pressure [44][45][46]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at a low level. The supply and demand are in a state of change, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly. The bottle - chip demand is not good [48][49]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is mainly affected by the high - volume shipments from Iran and the port inventory pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and short put options [51][52]. - **PP**: The supply of polypropylene is increasing, and the demand is uncertain. The future trend depends on whether the downstream demand can maintain a high growth rate [54][55]. - **PE**: The polyethylene market is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate [56][57][58]. - **PVC**: The PVC price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [59][60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have stopped falling. The supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, and the supply of styrene will change in different periods. Short - term short - selling is not recommended [61][62][64]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is waiting for the guidance of the OPEC meeting. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable. The price is under pressure from the spot market [65]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt supply is stable, but the demand is affected by rainfall and capital shortage. It is mainly following the cost fluctuation in the short term [67][68]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The rubber market is in a multi - empty stalemate. The price is affected by factors such as the crude oil price, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic data. It is expected to oscillate widely [69][70][71]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is in a weak supply - demand situation. The market is waiting for the Indian tender news. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [72][73]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The soda ash inventory has decreased slightly. The market situation is relatively weak [74].
金融期货早评-20250902
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 06:17
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].
供应增多叠加新季上市,盘面偏弱震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-16 14:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn 12 - contract has limited downside space below 400 cents per bushel as the market price is below the cost and the yield per unit may be revised down later. The domestic corn spot price is expected to continue to decline due to factors such as continuous auctions, high warehouse receipts, lower planting costs, and the upcoming new - season corn harvest. The 01 corn contract is expected to oscillate weakly and may fall to 2150 yuan per ton. The starch market will follow the corn market and oscillate weakly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) August report raised the yield per unit and area of US corn, resulting in a record - high production. The US corn price has broken below 400 cents per bushel, but it is significantly lower than the cost of 470 cents per bushel. As of August 15, 3.28 million tons of corn were auctioned, with 1.24 million tons sold, a transaction rate of 38%. The domestic corn spot price continues to decline due to factors such as continuous auctions of imported corn, high 09 warehouse receipts, lower domestic planting costs, and the upcoming new - season corn harvest. The market expects that the price of North China corn will likely fall below 2200 yuan per ton when it is abundantly available in October, and the 01 corn contract may oscillate weakly and fall to 2150 yuan per ton [4]. - **Starch**: The starch factory operating rate has increased, but downstream demand remains weak. Although the corn spot price has declined, the starch spot price has also fallen, and starch factories are still suffering large losses. The operating rate of North China starch enterprises will decline later, and the North China starch price will continue to fall with the upcoming new - season corn harvest. The 11 and 01 starch contracts are expected to follow the corn market and oscillate weakly [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the US corn 12 - contract, consider buying below 400 cents per bushel. For the domestic 01 corn contract, consider buying around 2150 yuan per ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between the 01 and 11 corn and starch contracts. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market - US Corn**: The August report raised the area and yield per unit of US corn, causing the price to break below 400 cents per bushel for the 12 - contract. The import tariffs on US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively, and the domestic import profit has increased. As of August 5, the non - commercial net short position of US corn decreased, and the US ethanol production declined. Although the US corn price has broken below 400 cents per bushel, the downside space is limited as the yield per unit may be revised down later [8][15]. - **Domestic Market - Corn**: Feed enterprise corn inventories have decreased compared to the previous period but are higher than the same period last year. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and their inventories have also decreased and are expected to continue to decline next week. Both the northern port corn inventories and southern port grain inventories have decreased [19][20][23]. - **Domestic Market - Starch**: The deep - processing operating rate has increased, with the national corn processing volume reaching 576,000 tons and starch production at 289,200 tons this week. The operating rate is 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. The profit loss has narrowed due to the decline in North China corn spot prices, stable starch spot prices, and strong by - product prices. Starch inventories have increased but are expected to decline next week [26][27]. - **Substitute - Wheat**: The wheat price is basically stable, with the North China delivered - to - factory price around 2450 yuan per ton. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened, the North China corn price has declined, the Northeast corn price has remained stable, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between North China corn and the 09 corn contract has increased [33]. - **Livestock and Poultry - Related**: In the week from August 7th to 14th, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 11 yuan per head, a decrease of 20 yuan per head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 204 yuan per head, a decrease of 17 yuan per head from last week. The white - feather broiler breeding profit was 1.78 yuan per bird, up from 1.16 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.5 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main production areas was 3.02 yuan per catty, up from 3.01 yuan per catty last week [39][45]. - **Deep - Processing - Starch Downstream Consumption**: The F55 high - fructose corn syrup operating rate was 58.62%, an increase of 0.5% from last week, and the maltose syrup operating rate was 47.33%, an increase of 0.43% from last week. The corrugated paper operating rate was 61.78%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week, and the boxboard paper operating rate was 70.0%, an increase of 1.32% from last week [48]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **US Corn**: As of August 7, the weekly US corn export inspection volume was 1.49 million tons, and the cumulative export volume was 63.13 million tons. The weekly export volume to China was 0 tons, and the cumulative export volume to China was 27,000 tons, accounting for 0.04%. In June, the domestic corn import volume was 160,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 790,000 tons, compared with 1.105 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - **Domestic Corn and Starch**: As of August 14, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed enterprises was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from the previous week and an increase of 2.07% compared to the same period last year. From August 7th to 14th, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1406 million tons of corn, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week. As of August 13, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 3.402 million tons, a decrease of 6.62% from the previous week. As of August 8, the northern four - port corn inventory was 1.774 million tons, a decrease of 131,000 tons from the previous week, and the four - port shipping volume was 247,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons from the previous week. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port decreased by 184,000 tons to 1.544 million tons [19][20][23]. - **Starch Market**: From August 7th to 14th, the national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, and starch production was 289,200 tons, with an operating rate of 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 90 yuan, an increase of 17 yuan from last week, and in Shandong, it was - 90 yuan, an increase of 18 yuan from last week. As of August 13, the corn starch inventory was 1.332 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 1.6% and an annual increase of 20.3% [26][27]. - **Livestock and Poultry Market**: In the week from August 7th to 14th, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 11 yuan per head, a decrease of 20 yuan per head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 204 yuan per head, a decrease of 17 yuan per head from last week. The white - feather broiler breeding profit was 1.78 yuan per bird, up from 1.16 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.5 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main production areas was 3.02 yuan per catty, up from 3.01 yuan per catty last week [39][45]. - **Deep - Processing Downstream**: The F55 high - fructose corn syrup operating rate was 58.62%, an increase of 0.5% from last week, and the maltose syrup operating rate was 47.33%, an increase of 0.43% from last week. The corrugated paper operating rate was 61.78%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week, and the boxboard paper operating rate was 70.0%, an increase of 1.32% from last week [48].
金融期货早评-20250806
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:50
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the economy shows downward pressure as the manufacturing PMI declines. It enters a policy observation period, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period. Despite a hawkish speech from Powell, the Fed's core targets are employment and inflation. With poor non - farm data and high inflation in the US service sector, there may be fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, without new shock factors, it is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central anchor at 7.20 [4]. - The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend. The adjustment of US tariff policies may reduce risk appetite [6]. - For the bond market, there is a mild price repair. Although the stock market is strong, the bond market is at most suppressed, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. - For the shipping industry, the container shipping index is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [9]. - In the precious metals market, due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, gold and silver are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper may be volatile and weak; aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile; zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short - term; tin may rise slightly; and the recommended strategies vary for each metal [13][15][16][17][18][19]. - In the black metals market, steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space; iron ore is expected to be strong; coking coal and coke may have increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic; silicon iron and silicon manganese are not overly pessimistic despite the decline in sentiment [21][23][26][27]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is under supply pressure and has limited upward space; LPG is in a loose supply situation; PX - TA can be considered for expanding processing fees at low prices; MEG - bottle chips are expected to be range - bound; methanol's fundamentals are weak in the short - term; PP is driven up by coal prices; PE needs to wait for demand recovery; PVC's pricing returns to the industry, and short - selling is recommended; pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile; fuel oil is weak; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling; asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile; urea is expected to be weakly volatile; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline; and propylene's price in the Shandong market has a slight increase [31][33][35][37][39][42][45][47][48][50][51][53][54][56][58][59][60][61][66]. - In the agricultural products market, for live pigs, short - selling at high prices is recommended; for oilseeds, long - buying in the far - month contracts is recommended [67][69]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes policies on financial support for new - type industrialization in China, the US service - sector PMI causing concerns about stagflation, Trump's statements on tariffs and the Fed, and the high proportion of seriously overdue consumer loans in the US [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange - rate performance shows a decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in the US non - manufacturing index are important factors. Without new shock factors, the short - term exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise yesterday, and the small - cap stocks were strong. The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend due to policy support and the adjustment of US tariff policies [5][6]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury futures fluctuated upward, and the price is in a mild repair state. The bond market is at most suppressed by the strong stock market, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. Shipping - The container shipping index futures opened low and fluctuated. The spot prices of major shipping companies have been continuously reduced, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [8][9]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals rose due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. They are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded slightly, mainly to correct the previous decline. It may be volatile and weak in the short - term, and investors are advised to hold cash and wait [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered when the price difference is large [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season [16][17]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term. The fundamentals of nickel have no obvious changes, and the supply of nickel - iron is supported by the expected increase in steel - mill production in August. The stability of the stainless - steel price needs to be tested [18]. - **Tin**: Tin rose slightly, showing strong resilience. The supply problem has not been resolved, and the demand weakness has not fully affected the price. Inventory hedging can be considered at an appropriate time [19]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space. Although the export orders have weakened, the market pressure is temporarily relieved, and the coal - mine inspection and military - parade limit - production expectations provide support [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be strong. The short - term fundamentals are good, and the supply is neutral while the demand is expected to remain high. The price is expected to break through the 800 - yuan pressure level [22][23]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose strongly. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic. It is not recommended for non - spot - handling investors to participate in the 09 - contract delivery game [25][26]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Although the sentiment has declined, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high steel - mill profits in the short - term, but the long - term demand is uncertain [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell overnight, and the market is under supply pressure. The seasonal demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [30][31]. - **LPG**: LPG is in a loose supply situation. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand has little change. The price is expected to be under pressure [32][33]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - TA price has fallen. The current TA processing fee is at a historical low, and there are many expected TA maintenance plans. It is recommended to expand the processing fee at low prices [34][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The "anti - involution" premium has been squeezed out, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force. They are expected to be range - bound [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to fundamentals, which are weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - to - inland price differences [38][39]. - **PP**: PP's price rose driven by coal prices. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the market is in a weak pattern [40][42]. - **PE**: PE's price was driven up by the coal - market. The current demand is weak, and the inventory is high, but the demand is expected to recover in August [43][45]. - **PVC**: PVC's pricing has returned to the industry. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. Short - selling is recommended [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both increasing, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase in August and September [48][50]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling due to weak supply, demand, and high inventory [51][53]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile, following the cost - end. The supply has increased, but the demand is affected by weather and funds. The medium - to - long - term demand is expected to improve [53][54]. - **Urea**: Urea is under pressure. Although the export demand provides some support, the agricultural demand is weakening [55][56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance state; and caustic soda may start the delivery logic in August [57][58][59][60]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has no obvious long - term increase, but there is seasonal support in August [61][62]. - **Propylene**: The price of propylene in the Shandong market has a slight increase. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. The cost is affected by multiple factors [64][66]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is stable, and the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market US soybeans are weak, and the inner - market soybeans are pricing the far - month supply gap. It is recommended to long - buy in the far - month contracts [68][69].
午盘收盘,国内期货主力合约大面积下跌,6个期货品种封跌停板。红枣涨超2%,苹果、淀粉涨近1%;跌幅方面,焦煤跌11%,玻璃跌9%,纯碱、工业硅、焦炭、碳酸锂跌8%,氧化铝跌超6%,多晶硅跌超5%,甲醇、20号胶、尿素跌超3%。
news flash· 2025-07-28 07:04
Group 1 - The domestic futures market experienced a significant decline, with major contracts showing widespread losses and six futures varieties hitting the limit down [1] - Red dates increased by over 2%, while apples and starch rose nearly 1% [1] - In terms of declines, coking coal fell by 11%, glass dropped by 9%, and other commodities such as soda ash, industrial silicon, coking coal, and lithium carbonate decreased by 8% [1] Group 2 - Aluminum oxide saw a decline of over 6%, while polysilicon dropped by more than 5% [1] - Methanol, No. 20 rubber, and urea experienced declines exceeding 3% [1]
西南期货早间评论-20250718
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:44
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10]. - China's equity assets are still promising in the long - term, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8]. - For most commodities, the market situation is complex, and different trading strategies should be adopted according to the specific fundamentals of each commodity, such as waiting for opportunities to short, going long at low positions, or temporarily observing. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Fixed - Income Products - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close higher. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. 3.2 Equity - Related Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7][8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the closing price of the gold main contract and a slight increase in the silver main contract. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and factors such as "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. 3.4 Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper fluctuate slightly. The US imposing additional tariffs on copper has been confirmed, which has put downward pressure on Shanghai copper prices. After the decline, the price has gradually stabilized. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of Shanghai copper [57][58]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai tin fluctuate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption situation is good. The inventory at home and abroad is showing a downward trend. Overall, the supply is still in short supply [59]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai nickel rise. The price of the ore end has weakened, and the actual consumption is still not optimistic. The refined nickel is still in an oversupply situation, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [60]. 3.5 Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day saw a slight rebound in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. Although the important meeting at the beginning of the month has triggered expectations of supply contraction, the downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are still suppressing the price. The price rebound space may be limited. It is advisable for investors to wait patiently for shorting opportunities after the rebound and set appropriate stop - profits [12][13]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day saw a slight increase in iron ore futures. Policy expectations have boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high. Technically, it may continue to be strong in the short - term. It is advisable for investors to pay attention to buying opportunities at low positions and set stop - profits in time [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day saw a late - session rally in coking coal and coke futures. The important meeting at the beginning of the month has triggered expectations of supply contraction, but in reality, the coal mine start - up rate is rising, and the steel mill's procurement willingness is not strong. Technically, it may break through the previous high and continue to rise. It is advisable for investors to wait patiently for appropriate mid - term shorting entry points and set stop - profits in time [17][18]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts close higher. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. After entering the off - season, the short - term demand has peaked, and the overall price is under pressure. If the spot losses continue to expand recently, it is advisable to consider low - value out - of - the - money call options [20]. 3.6 Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open low and close high, supported by the 10 - day moving average. The decline in US active rig counts and summer oil demand support oil prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions against Russia still restrict oil prices. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of crude oil [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall, showing a weak trend. The supply of fuel oil in Asia is abundant, and trade frictions are intensifying, which is negative for fuel oil prices. It is advisable to pay attention to shorting opportunities in the main contract of fuel oil [24][25][27]. 3.7 Chemical Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract close higher. The raw material price has fallen, and the operating profit has turned positive. The supply - demand situation is short - term loose. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract close higher. It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation next week. It is advisable to pay attention to mid - term long - position opportunities [30][31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract close slightly higher. The current PVC market still has an oversupply situation, but the room for further decline is limited, and it may enter a bottom - oscillation stage [32][33][36]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day saw the urea main contract close higher. The short - term domestic urea market will fluctuate narrowly, waiting for the implementation of policies and demand. It is advisable to treat it as oscillating in the short - term and bullish in the medium - term [37][38]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: The previous trading day saw the PX2509 main contract rise. The short - term supply - demand balance of PX remains tight, but the support from crude oil costs is slightly insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously, pay attention to the changes in crude oil costs, and control risks [39][40]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day saw the PTA2509 main contract rise. The short - term supply of PTA increases, the demand weakens, and the cost support from crude oil is slightly insufficient. However, the processing fee of PTA has dropped to a low level, and subsequent production cuts may increase. It is advisable to participate within a range and pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee when it is low [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract rise. The supply pressure has been relieved recently, and the inventory has decreased and is at a low level. It is advisable to be cautious about the downward space and participate within a range, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [42][43]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2509 main contract fluctuate and adjust. The short - term fundamentals of short - fiber lack driving forces, and some factories have cut production. The processing fee is gradually recovering. It is advisable to be cautious about the space for the repair of the processing spread and pay attention to cost changes and the intensity of plant production cuts [44]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day saw the bottle chips 2509 main contract rise. Recently, the raw material price has fluctuated, and the support is slightly insufficient. The number of bottle chip plant overhauls has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected that the market will follow the cost - end oscillation. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost price changes [45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of soda ash close higher. The short - term soda ash market is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate. It is advisable to be rational and not over - pursue high prices or short [47]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of glass close higher. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving forces. The price increase yesterday was mainly due to the pull of the energy sector such as coking coal, and it is expected to rebound in the short - term [48][49]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of caustic soda close lower. The short - term price may have some support, but the overall positive support is still relatively limited [50][51]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of pulp close higher. The supply of pulp still tends to expand, and the demand in the market is weak. The overall pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract close higher. Although there are expectations of supply - side reforms and production cuts by enterprises, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and the inventory remains high. It is not advisable for investors to chase high prices [55][56]. 3.8 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day saw soybean oil and soybean meal futures close higher. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the import cost has increased. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities in the low - support range for soybean meal after adjustment, and for soybean oil, consider call option opportunities in the support range after the price decline [61][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day saw the Malaysian palm oil futures close lower. The export data of Malaysian palm oil in July 1 - 15 was weak, and the domestic palm oil inventory has increased. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [63][64]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day saw the Canadian rapeseed futures close higher. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are all in the process of destocking. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities in rapeseed products [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day saw domestic Zheng cotton rebound to a new high. The US Department of Agriculture's July report raised the estimates of US cotton production and global inventory. The global supply - demand is expected to remain loose, and it is advisable to observe [67][68][70]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day saw domestic Zheng sugar fluctuate. The production forecast in Brazil has been lowered. The domestic inventory is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not sharp. It is advisable to observe [71][72]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day saw domestic apple futures rise slightly. The expected production reduction has been falsified, and the national apple production is expected to increase slightly. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price is high [73][75][76]. - **Hogs**: The previous trading day saw the main contract of hogs close lower. The short - term price is expected to be stable with narrow adjustments. In the middle of the month, the group - farm slaughter volume has recovered, and the demand in the summer off - season is still weak. It is advisable to hold previous short positions [77][78]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day saw the main contract of eggs close lower. The supply of eggs in July is expected to continue to increase year - on - year. It is advisable to consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [79][80]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day saw the corn main contract and the corn starch main contract close higher. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is warming up. The inventory pressure has decreased. It is advisable to observe. The production and demand of corn starch are both weak, and it mainly follows the corn market [81][82]. 3.9 Logs - **Logs**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of logs close higher. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery. The main 09 and far - month contracts are mainly influenced by positive sentiment, but the actual quoted price of standard products has not increased significantly [83][86].
西南期货早间评论-20250717
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 02:31
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].
西南期货早间评论-20250710
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 03:28
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and international situations [6][9][11] - For most commodities, investors are advised to pay attention to market trends, control risks, and choose appropriate investment strategies according to specific market conditions. 3. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 755 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 23 billion yuan on the day. China's June CPI turned positive year - on - year, and PPI continued to decline. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][6][7] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The State Council issued a notice to support stable employment. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [8][9][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and central banks' gold - buying behavior support the long - term bull market of precious metals. It is considered to go long on gold futures [11][12] Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. An important meeting triggered expectations of supply contraction, but the real estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. There is a risk of further price decline, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but the price valuation is relatively high. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. An important meeting triggered supply - contraction expectations, but the actual supply may increase. The short - term trend is strong, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The short - term supply may be in excess, and the price is under pressure. If the spot loss intensifies, investors can consider low - value call options [19][20] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose strongly. OPEC + will increase production in August and September, but the increase will end in September. The market has stabilized after a decline, and investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities for the main contract [21][23][24] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil opened higher and fluctuated. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory is negative, while the easing of tariff frictions is positive. The price has stabilized after a sharp decline, and investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities for the main contract [25][26] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber rose. The raw material price has declined, and the profit has turned positive. The supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize and participate in the rebound [27][29] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber rose. Domestic production areas are affected by rainfall, and overseas supply is increasing. The demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to medium - term long - buying opportunities [30][31] PVC - Last trading day, PVC rose. The expected production will continue to decline, the demand has not improved, and the cost support is weakening. The price is expected to remain weak, showing a bottom - oscillating pattern [32][35] Urea - Last trading day, urea rose. The demand is expected to improve this week, driving inventory reduction. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [36][37] PX - Last trading day, PX rose slightly. The supply - demand has improved slightly in the short term, and the cost support from crude oil has improved. The price will oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors should participate cautiously [38] PTA - Last trading day, PTA rose. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term, and the cost support from crude oil exists. The price may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate with a light position [39] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol declined. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, suppressing the price, but the inventory is at a low level, providing support. Investors should participate within a range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [40] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber rose. The downstream demand and cost have weakened, but the low inventory of factories can limit the decline. Investors can participate with a light position following the cost and pay attention to taking profits when the processing fee is high [41][42] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips rose. The raw material price is oscillating, the number of device overhauls has increased, and the inventory is being reduced. The price is expected to oscillate following the cost. Investors should participate cautiously and pay attention to expanding the processing fee when it is low [43] Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to alleviate. The price increase is mainly driven by the energy sector, and investors should be cautious as a bull [44][45] Glass - Last trading day, glass rose. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force, and the market sentiment is weak. The price is mainly stable, and most deep - processing enterprises maintain rigid demand [46][47] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda rose. The supply - demand is generally loose with regional differences. The price in most mainstream areas has declined, and the basis has narrowed. Although the market is bullish in the short term, the fundamental support is limited [48][49] Pulp - Last trading day, pulp rose. The downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust. The market trading sentiment is average, and the paper mill's procurement is light [50][52] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, and the inventory is high. Do not chase the high price before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [53] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper declined sharply due to the US tariff increase. The price decline has expanded, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see state. Temporarily wait and see for the main contract [54][55] Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The ore supply is tight, the overall supply is short, and the demand is good. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [56] Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel declined slightly. The mine price has weakened, the consumption is not optimistic, and the supply is in excess. The price is expected to oscillate [57] Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and the domestic supply is loose. Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels and call options for soybean oil after a decline [58][59] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has risen for three consecutive days. The domestic inventory is at a medium - high level. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed declined. The domestic import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high or low level. Consider long - buying opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [62][63] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton rose slightly. The US cotton growth is good, and the global supply - demand is expected to be loose. The domestic industry is in the off - season. Consider short - selling at high levels [64][65][66] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated. The Brazilian production increase expectation has been adjusted downward, and the domestic inventory is low. The price will oscillate within a range [67][70][71] Apple - Last trading day, apple futures oscillated. The national apple production is expected to increase slightly. Consider short - selling opportunities at high levels [72][73] Live Pigs - Yesterday, the national average price of live pigs was flat. The supply pressure is increasing, and the consumption is weak. Consider short - selling at high levels [74][75] Eggs - Last trading day, the egg price was flat. The egg supply is expected to increase in July, and it is in the consumption off - season. Hold short positions [76][77] Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn declined slightly, and corn starch rose slightly. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is advisable to wait and see [78][79][80] Logs - Last trading day, logs declined. The overseas export willingness has decreased, and the domestic inventory is being reduced. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [81][83]