商品类别 品种 周收盘价 周涨跌幅 20日年化波动率 波动率变化(%) 投机度 趋势度 资金变动 黄金 1,147.90 3.41% 72.66% 0.27% 1.13 -0.04 -147.54 白银 23,019.00 16.36% 129.12% 7.64% 1.95 0.21 -11.81 铜 103,920.00 3.27% 44.13% 0.88% 0.67 0.38 -127.74 镍 141,560.00 4.13% 48.55% 2.57% 3.10 0.40 12.58 铝 23,835.00 2.45% 38.23% 0.75% 1.04 0.37 -32.02 锡 453,240.00 23.27% 81.12% 15.77% 8.18 0.55 42.72 锌 24,710.00 1.90% 26.11% 2.33% 1.45 0.46 -10.43 铅 16,840.00 0.84% 9.86% -11.23% 0.84 0.26 -6.98 工业硅 8,395.00 0.00% 15.95% -16.70% 0.58 -0.09 -4.85 螺纹钢 3,067.00 0.39% ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 薛钧元 粕类市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，节前2月13日收盘豆粕2605合约2800元/吨，环比上涨65元/吨，涨幅2.38%；2月13日收盘菜 粕2605合约2309元/吨，环比上涨70元/吨，涨幅3.13%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨， 环比持平，现货基差M05+370，环比下降65；江苏地区豆粕现货价格3070元/吨，环比上涨40元/吨，现 货基差M05+270，环比下跌25；广东地区豆粕现货价格3060元/吨，环比上涨50元/吨，现货基差 M05+260，环比下跌15。福建地区菜粕现货价格2420元/吨，环比上涨10元/吨，现货基差M05+111，环 比下跌60。 豆粕：国际方面，巴西商贸部表示，截止2026年2月第2周，累计装出大豆269.3万吨，去年2月为642.8万 吨。日均装运量为26.9万吨，较去年2月的32.1万吨减少16.22%。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所称，截至2 月18日当周目前75%的大豆作物评级正常至良好，高于一周前的68%，去年同期68%；66%的种植区水 分条件适宜到最佳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. Pay attention to risk control during the Spring Festival [7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [9]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices may continue the weak - oscillating pattern. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [10][11]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue the oscillating pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for low - buying opportunities and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: There may be opportunities to go long in the low - range. Consider the low - cost and rigid cost conditions [18]. - **Crude Oil**: There is some progress in US - Iran negotiations, but geopolitical risks remain. It is advisable to hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [19][20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply shortage in Singapore has eased, but there is still room for an upward movement due to the unresolved Iran risk. Hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: Be cautious in pre - holiday operations [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: Control positions before the holiday [30]. - **PVC**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [32]. - **Urea**: Expected to be oscillating and strong [33]. - **PX**: May oscillate and adjust in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations during the Spring Festival [34]. - **PTA**: May oscillate, with a small inventory build - up expected. Be cautious, and pay attention to the resumption of downstream factories after the holiday [35]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is still pressure above, and it may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern. Be cautious and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [36]. - **Short - Fiber**: Trade based on the cost - end logic before the holiday. Be cautious and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory [37]. - **Bottle Chips**: Follow the cost - end trend. Be cautious before the holiday and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices and external market changes during the holiday [38]. - **Soda Ash**: Be cautious due to the off - season fundamentals. Hold light positions during the holiday [39]. - **Glass**: The market is generally loose. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday, paying attention to the return to fundamentals [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory situation has slightly improved. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday [41]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the impact on pre - holiday prices is temporarily dull. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Control risks [44]. - **Copper**: May experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. - **Aluminum**: May be under pressure [47][48]. - **Zinc**: Will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. - **Lead**: Expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. - **Tin**: There is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify. Control risks [54]. - **Nickel**: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. - **Apples**: In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. - **Hogs**: Wait and see before the holiday due to the supply - demand imbalance [69][70]. - **Eggs**: Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. - **Logs**: The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory Pulp - The main 2605 contract closed at 5238 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the domestic supply also increased slightly. The downstream pre - holiday procurement ended, and the market entered a demand vacuum period. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. Carbonate Lithium - The main contract rose 3.66% to 149,420 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption side has improved, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [44]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton, down 2.56%. The market sentiment declined, and the fundamentals weakened. The copper price may experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure [47][48]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 4.27% to 376,330 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, and there is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [54]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.74% to 135,070 yuan/ton. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the cost is expected to rise. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract rose 1.16% to 2,290 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.22% to 8,082 yuan/ton. The soybean meal demand continues to grow moderately, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive trading day. The supply may increase, and the export decreased. Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed followed the rise of US soybean oil futures but did not break through the resistance level. The Chinese import situation has changed, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [61][63]. Cotton - The domestic Zheng cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish. In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar rose and then fell; the overnight external raw sugar fell to a new low. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faces dual supply pressure. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. Apples - The domestic apple futures oscillated. The current market is in a vacuum period. In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. Hogs - The main contract rose 0.13% to 11,540 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and it is advisable to wait and see before the holiday [69][70]. Eggs - The main contract rose 1.56% to 3,200 yuan/500kg. The supply in February may remain at a relatively high level. Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. Corn and Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.83% to 2,320 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.51% to 2,572 yuan/ton. The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. Logs - The main 2603 contract closed at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The shipping volume has recovered, but the downstream demand is weakening. The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The valuation of domestic assets is at a low level, and the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [9]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Gold has allocation and hedging value, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue the weak oscillation pattern. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15]. - The coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [17]. - The ferroalloy market has an overall over - supply pressure, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. - The relationship between the US and Iran is volatile, and the capital is still bullish on crude oil. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21]. - The fuel oil supply in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding. The fuel oil price has room to rise, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins weakens, and cautious operations are recommended before the festival [26]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, and positions should be gradually controlled before the festival [29]. - The natural rubber market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31]. - The PVC market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports and the recovery of demand after the festival [33]. - The urea price is expected to be in an oscillatory and strong pattern, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - The PX market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the changes in macro - policies and fundamentals [39]. - The PTA market is expected to be in an oscillatory operation pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be in an oscillatory bottom - building pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. - The short - fiber market is expected to follow the cost - end logic. It is recommended to wait and see carefully and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [44]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end operation. It is recommended to participate cautiously before the festival and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [45]. - The soda ash market has a loose fundamental situation and should be treated with caution [46]. - The glass market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern before the festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [48]. - The caustic soda market has high - production, low - demand, and high - inventory characteristics. It should be treated with caution [49]. - The pulp market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control is necessary [53]. - The copper market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern before the festival [54]. - The aluminum market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [56]. - The zinc market is expected to enter an adjustment period [58]. - The lead market is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern [60]. - The tin market has support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [62]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [63]. - For soybean meal, the demand continues to grow moderately, and long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [64]. - The palm oil market may consider buying on dips [66]. - The rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets are recommended to wait and see for now [69]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. It is recommended to buy in batches at low levels after a full correction [71]. - The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [75]. - The apple market is expected to be in a small - range oscillation in the short term and strong in the medium and long term. It is recommended to go long in batches after a correction [77]. - The pig market is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the changes in supply and consumption around the Spring Festival [80]. - The egg market is recommended to wait and see, as the supply in February may remain at a relatively high level [83]. - The corn and corn starch markets are expected to follow the corn market. It is necessary to wait for the release of supply pressure [84]. - The log market shows a strong performance on the disk, but the fundamental improvement needs time. Attention should be paid to external quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 64.5 billion yuan on the day. The service trade in 2025 showed steady growth [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends [8]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures prices fell. In 2025, domestic gold production increased, but consumption decreased. The US ISM service PMI index declined slightly [11]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and gold has allocation and hedging value. However, the short - term market fluctuations may increase, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak oscillation. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the supply pressure increases. The prices may continue the weak oscillation pattern [13]. - Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the port inventory is at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern is weak [15]. - The futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. The supply of coking coal may decline during the Spring Festival, and the demand for coke is weak [17]. - The futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose slightly. The supply of ferroalloys is still in a loose state, but the short - term oversupply has weakened [19]. - After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose first and then fell. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. OPEC + may maintain the decision to suspend production increases in March [20]. - The relationship between the US and Iran is volatile, and the capital is still bullish on crude oil. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is strong, and the trading volume of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil paper futures increased [23]. - The fuel oil supply in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding. The fuel oil price has room to rise, but the main contract is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market fell. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins weakens [26]. - Cautious operations are recommended before the festival [26]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The price of raw materials rose, the supply decreased slightly, the demand improved year - on - year, and the inventory increased [28]. - The market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, and positions should be gradually controlled before the festival [29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The overseas supply is shrinking, the demand is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [31]. - The market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The price was supported by exports and costs, but the high inventory and weak demand restricted the price increase [33]. - The market is expected to be in a strong oscillation pattern, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports and the recovery of demand after the festival [33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell slightly. The supply increased, the demand was driven by exports and the market sentiment, and the industry profit increased [37]. - The price is expected to be in an oscillatory and strong pattern [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, and the PX operating rate increased slightly [39]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the changes in macro - policies and fundamentals [39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased seasonally, and the processing fee rose to the average level of previous years [41]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory operation pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The overall operating load increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream polyester entered the seasonal maintenance period [42]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory bottom - building pattern. It is recommended to operate carefully and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply decreased, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was at a low level [44]. - The market is expected to follow the cost - end logic. It is recommended to wait and see carefully and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [44]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee rebounded, the supply was expected to decrease, and the export increased [45]. - The market is expected to follow the cost - end operation. It is recommended to participate cautiously before the festival and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [45]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak [46]. - The market has a loose fundamental situation and should be treated with caution [46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The number of production lines decreased, the factory inventory increased slightly, and the trader inventory increased significantly [48]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory pattern before the festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The production was at a high level, the inventory was still at a high level, and the downstream demand was weak [49]. - The market has high - production, low - demand, and high - inventory characteristics. It should be treated with caution [49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory continued to accumulate, the domestic supply increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak [52]. - The market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [52]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is at a high level, the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [53]. - The market has strong support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control is necessary [53]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures fell. The geopolitical events increased the risk - aversion demand, the mine supply was disturbed, and the terminal consumption entered the off - season [54]. - The market is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment pattern before the festival [54]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell, and alumina futures rose. The alumina supply is loose, the electrolytic aluminum production growth is limited, and the demand is weak [56]. - The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [56]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell. The supply tightened, the demand was weak, and the social inventory has not yet started to accumulate [58]. - The market is expected to enter an adjustment period [58]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply was restricted by the shortage of raw materials, the demand was differentiated, and the inventory was extremely low [60]. - The market is expected to be in an interval oscillation pattern [60]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. The mine supply was tight, the demand showed some resilience, and the inventory decreased [62]. - The market has support at the bottom, but the short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [62]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The nickel ore policy in Indonesia changed, the production cost increased, the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory was at a relatively high level [63]. - The market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [63]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose slightly, and soybean oil futures fell. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy improved the demand expectation. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil has different trends [64]. - For soybean meal, the demand continues to grow moderately, and long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [64]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market fell. The market expects the inventory to decrease, the production to decline, and the export to increase. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level [66]. - The market may consider buying on dips [66]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price rose. The US bio - fuel tax credit policy and the China - Canada tariff policy have an impact on the market. The domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil inventories are at a relatively high level [69]. - The market is recommended to wait and see for now [69]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The external market cotton price fell, and the domestic cotton production increased, but the inventory accumulation was lower than expected. The future supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient [71]. - The market is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. It is recommended to buy in batches at low levels after a full correction [71]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly, and the external market sugar price fell. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic sugar supply is sufficient with high imports [75]. - The market is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term [75]. Apple - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The market is in the late stage of Spring Festival stocking, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality have declined [77]. - The market is expected to be in a small - range oscillation in the short

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised. Stock index volatility centers are expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held. Precious metal market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. For various industrial and agricultural products, different trends and investment strategies are analyzed based on their respective fundamentals [6][10][14] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. Due to the current low Treasury bond yields, the steady recovery of the Chinese economy, rising core inflation, and increased risk appetite, Treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure, and caution is needed [5][6] Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. With the increase in market sentiment and incremental funds, the stock index volatility center is expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [8][9][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the gold - buying behavior of central banks are favorable for the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise in precious metals and the significant increase in speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [12][13][14] Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last trading day, they showed weak oscillations. The real estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the market is entering the demand off - season. Although the supply pressure is relieved, the inventory is slightly higher than last year. Prices may continue the weak oscillation, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16] - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, it slightly corrected. The demand for iron ore is low, the supply situation is complex, and the port inventory is at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern has weakened, but there are signs of stabilizing. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [18] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, they slightly rebounded. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak. The futures have stopped falling and rebounded, but the rebound space may be limited. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [21] - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron contracts fell. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost is fluctuating in a narrow range at a low level. The overall supply is still in excess, but the short - term supply may be reduced. After the price decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23][24] Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. Speculators increased their net long positions in crude oil futures and options, the number of active oil and gas rigs increased, and the US imposed new sanctions on Iran. Crude oil is expected to continue rising, and investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [25][26][27] - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, it rose significantly. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the market expected short - to - medium - term supply to tighten. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [28] Chemicals (including Polyolefins, Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber, PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chips, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda) - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to be in a supply - demand tight situation this week. Due to rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls, prices may continue to rise in the short term. The downstream demand is stable, and investors can look for long - position opportunities [29][30] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, it rose. It was mainly supported by the rising price of butadiene and high device operating rates, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. It is expected to show a strong - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to factors such as butadiene price trends and downstream demand recovery [31][32][33] - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, it rose. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The overseas supply is shrinking, and the cost is supported, but the demand is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34][35] - **PVC**: Last trading day, it rose. Although it is in the traditional demand off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing [36][37][39] - **Urea**: Last trading day, it rose slightly. The short - term price will maintain a strong - side oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level [40][41] - **PX**: Last trading day, it rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the operating rate is declining, and the cost of crude oil provides support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate in the low - level range [42][43] - **PTA**: Last trading day, it rose. The processing fee has rebounded to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The supply has little change, the demand is seasonally decreasing, but the cost and market sentiment boost the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a slight inventory accumulation in January and February [44] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, it rose. The supply is shrinking due to increased domestic and overseas device overhauls, but the port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream polyester is in seasonal maintenance. It is expected to have limited upward space in the short term, and investors should operate carefully [45][46] - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, it rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the inventory is at a low level, and it is mainly trading based on the cost - side logic. It is expected to oscillate with the raw material price, and attention should be paid to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [47] - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, it rose. The processing fee has rebounded, the supply is expected to shrink during the Spring Festival, the export is increasing, and it is mainly driven by the cost side. It is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors can participate cautiously on dips [48][49] - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, it rose. The fundamental situation is loose, the price is stable for the time being, and it lacks substantial support in the short term. Caution is advised [50][51] - **Glass**: Last trading day, it rose. The fundamental situation is loose, the inventory is increasing, the market demand is weak, but the manufacturers' shipments are good due to pre - holiday stocking. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [52][53] - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, it rose. The winter seasonal characteristics are significant, with sufficient supply, high inventory, and weak demand. Affected by the alumina price fluctuation, the pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate, but caution is still needed due to the unchanged fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches [54][55] Agricultural Products (including Pulp, Carbonate Lithium, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apples, Pigs, Eggs, Corn & Starch, Logs) - **Pulp**: Last trading day, it fell. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, the downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but rational treatment is needed [56][57] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Last trading day, it fell. The supply is at a high level, the consumption is improving, the inventory is decreasing, and there is strong support for the price. However, the short - term volatility may increase, and risk control is necessary [58][59] - **Copper**: Last trading day, it rose. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate supply is tight. However, the demand is suppressed by high prices, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [60][61] - **Aluminum**: Last trading day, it rose slightly. The alumina market has an oversupply situation, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is inelastic. The high price suppresses the demand, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. It is expected to adjust at a high level [62][63][64] - **Zinc**: Last trading day, it rose. The domestic refined zinc production is increasing, the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [65][66] - **Lead**: Last trading day, it fell slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production capacity of primary lead is restricted, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [67][68] - **Tin**: Last trading day, it fell. The supply is generally tight due to the slow resumption of production in Wa State and the crackdown on illegal mines in Indonesia. The demand has certain resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and risk control is needed [69] - **Nickel**: Last trading day, it fell. The global geopolitical situation is tense, the Indonesian nickel quota is reduced, and the cost is rising. However, the stainless - steel consumption is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation [70] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, they rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, and the domestic soybean import is slowing down. The supply of soybean is relatively loose, the cost support is weakening, the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil is slightly improving. Investors can look for long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil on rallies [71][72] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose, supported by the price of related oils and crude oil and favorable export data. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after the price correction [73][74][75] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price fell. The Chinese tariff on Canadian rapeseed will be reduced. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is increasing. Investors can consider closing the spread - widening positions between soybean and rapeseed products [76][77] - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton futures oscillated. The external market cotton price fell. The USDA report is favorable for the market, and the medium - term external cotton price is expected to be strong. The domestic cotton harvest is good, but the inventory increase is lower than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand has resilience. The medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to be strong, but the domestic market is under pressure in the short term. Investors can buy on dips after the price correction [78][79][80] - **Sugar**: The domestic and foreign sugar futures oscillated. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic market will face the dual supply pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is recommended to short on rallies [82][83][84] - **Apples**: The domestic apple futures oscillated weakly. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to be strong, and investors can go long on dips [86][87][88] - **Pigs**: The main contract fell. The supply is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter, and the market is waiting for the marginal change in consumption during the Spring Festival. It is recommended to wait and see [90][91] - **Eggs**: The main contract rose. The egg supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January, but the supply - side improvement is emerging. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [92] - **Corn & Starch**: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. The northern port inventory is low, the spot price is strong, and the domestic corn is basically in balance of production and demand. The demand for corn starch is slightly improving, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to follow the corn market [93][94] - **Logs**: The main contract rose slightly. The supply is shrinking at a high level, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is entering the pre - holiday end, and the cost is rising. The overall supply - demand is tending to be loose, but the cost support is strengthening [95][96][97]

1. Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry 2. Core Views - The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, but different sectors have different trends and investment suggestions [6] - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy is not strong. However, due to low asset valuations and economic resilience, the market sentiment has warmed up, and different futures varieties show various characteristics [8] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.07%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.03% respectively [5] - **Policy and Data**: The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 9, with a net investment of 34 billion yuan. In December 2025, China's CPI rose by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI fell by 1.9% year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6] 3.2 Equity Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose by 0.71%, 0.62%, 2.99%, and 3.07% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can take long positions at appropriate times [8] 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of gold rose by 0.86%, and the main contract of silver rose by 1.52% [10] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. However, due to the significant increase in precious metals recently and the rise in speculative sentiment, it is expected that market volatility will significantly increase. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [10] 3.4 Steel and Iron Ore 3.4.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai were in certain ranges [12] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, rebar prices may continue to be weak and volatile, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [13] 3.4.2 Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated at high levels. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were 815 yuan/ton and 705 yuan/ton respectively [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is expected to strengthen. The futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [15] 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [17] - **Outlook**: Coking coal production has recovered, and coke procurement prices have been lowered. The rebound of futures shows signs of weakness. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels and pay attention to position management [17][18] 3.6 Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell by 0.74% and 1.95% respectively. The spot prices also declined [20] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, ferroalloy production has declined, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20] 3.7 Energy 3.7.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the possible escalation of the Iranian situation [21] - **Outlook**: The United States is discussing the development strategy of Venezuelan oil, but it has received a cold response. The US President has listened to reports on military strikes against Iran. Crude oil has stabilized around $60 and is expected to rise. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [23] 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly and closed above the 5 - day moving average [25] - **Outlook**: The decrease in Singapore fuel oil inventory is positive for prices, while the selling of Asian derivatives on Friday exerts pressure. The rising crude oil prices are expected to drive fuel oil prices up. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [26] 3.8 Chemicals 3.8.1 Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the Hangzhou PP market, some quotations were raised, and in the Yuyao LLDPE market, some prices increased [28] - **Outlook**: The demand in different sectors of PP products is uneven, and the industry differentiation is more prominent. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [28] 3.8.2 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber fell by 2.12%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was lowered [30] - **Outlook**: It is expected to be mainly strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and the implementation of January device maintenance [30] 3.8.3 Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - rubber fell by 0.96% and 1.33% respectively, and the Shanghai spot price was lowered [33] - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state in the short - term [33] 3.8.4 PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell by 0.73%, and the spot price was lowered [35] - **Outlook**: Although it is currently in the traditional demand off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong and volatile trend in the short - term. In the medium - term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of the demand side [35] 3.8.5 Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell by 0.22%, and the price in Shandong Linyi remained stable [38] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, urea prices will remain volatile and strong, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [38] 3.8.6 PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2603 fell by 0.06% and rose by 2.5% at night [40] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, and the PX start - up rate remains unchanged. The rising crude oil prices provide support. However, it is necessary to be cautious. PX may be mainly in a volatile adjustment state [40] 3.8.7 PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2605 fell by 0.23% and rose by 2.28% at night. The spot price in East China was 5,038 yuan/ton [41] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has rebounded to a neutral level, and the inventory remains low. The supply - demand situation has changed little. In the long - and medium - term, the supply - demand expectation is good, and the rising crude oil prices provide support [41] 3.8.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The report does not provide specific previous - trading - day performance data [43] - **Outlook**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and the port inventory is still under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [43] 3.8.9 Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2603 fell by 0.25% and rose by 1.48% at night [45] - **Outlook**: The supply of short - fiber is expected to decrease during the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. It is necessary to be cautious, and it is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate. Investors should be cautious and control risks [45] 3.8.10 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The report does not provide specific previous - trading - day performance data [47] - **Outlook**: The load of bottle chips has slightly decreased recently, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. It is necessary to be cautious, and it is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate [47] 3.8.11 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 1,225 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [48] - **Outlook**: The supply remains high, and the inventory reflects that the winter storage rhythm is weaker than in previous years. The current contradiction lies in the game between "strong expectation and weak reality". In the short - term, it is mainly range - bound operation [48] 3.8.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 1,125 yuan/ton, down 1.66% [49] - **Outlook**: The glass production capacity is gradually being reduced, but the real - estate new construction and completion areas do not bring significant positive expectations. In the short - term, it is mainly short - selling, but attention should be paid to the short - term driving force brought by real - estate policies [49] 3.8.13 Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2603 closed at 2,211 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [51] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit. In the short - term, the price is expected to continue to be weak and stable. However, there is a possibility of price driving due to downstream capacity optimization or supply - side active production cuts. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations and control positions [51] 3.8.14 Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 5,548 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [54] - **Outlook**: The fundamental factors are intertwined. The supply expansion news is still being released, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The futures price is oscillating at a high level. In the absence of significant driving factors in the future supply - demand, the futures price may return to the spot price. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the range - bound oscillation [54] 3.9 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.9.1 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 0.01% to 143,420 yuan/ton [55] - **Outlook**: The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for lithium - battery products may stimulate enterprises to increase exports and inventory. The supply is in a tight balance, and the demand is strong. The social inventory is gradually decreasing. However, the continuous rise may over - draw future expectations, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [55] 3.9.2 Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper (presumably a wrong description here, should be related to the respective metals) fluctuated slightly and closed at the 60 - day level [57][58][59][60] - **Outlook**: The report does not provide specific outlooks for these four metals 3.9.3 Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose by 3.15% to 359,980 yuan/ton [61] - **Outlook**: Due to geopolitical conflicts, the supply is generally tight, and the demand shows certain resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support at the bottom, but there may be a short - term correction [61] 3.9.4 Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose by 2.78% to 140,280 yuan/ton [63] - **Outlook**: Due to the anti - globalization trend and geopolitical conflicts, the cost of nickel is expected to rise, but the real - world consumption is still not optimistic, and the primary nickel is still in an oversupply situation. Attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [63] 3.10 Agricultural Products 3.10.1 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soybean meal fell by 0.64% to 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of soybean oil rose by 0.33% to 7,994 yuan/ton [64] - **Outlook**: The demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has slightly improved. There is a certain supply pressure. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range for soybean meal and long - position opportunities for call options in the low - level range for soybean oil [64] 3.10.2 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell on Friday due to profit - taking but recorded a weekly increase [66] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities after a correction [67] 3.10.3 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed fell on Friday but recorded a strong weekly increase [68] - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the changes in the import trade policy of Canadian rapeseed products. If the import of Canadian rapeseed products increases, investors can consider opportunities to expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil in the far - month contracts [68] 3.10.4 Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton significantly reduced positions and fell for three consecutive days [70] - **Outlook**: In the long - and medium - term, cotton prices are expected to be strong, but the short - term increase has been too large, and the domestic valuation is relatively high compared with the international market. It is recommended to buy on dips in batches after a correction [70] 3.10.5 Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zheng sugar was weakly volatile, and the international raw sugar slightly fell after a bottom - hunting rebound [74] - **Outlook**: Abroad, the focus is on the production in the Northern Hemisphere, especially India's production. Domestically, there is pressure from both domestic new sugar and imported sugar. After a significant rebound in the market, the upward space may be limited [75] 3.10.6 Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures were strongly volatile [78] - **Outlook**: The inventory this year is at a low level in recent years, and the apple production and quality have declined. It is expected that the prices will be strong in the long - and medium - term [78] 3.10.7 Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs was 12.70 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan from the previous day. The main contract fell by 0.08% to 11,770 yuan/ton [82] - **Outlook**: In the first quarter, the supply may still face great pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for changes in the market capital structure [82] 3.10.8 Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average prices in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The main contract rose by 0.46% to 3,040 yuan/500 kg [84] - **Outlook**: In January, the egg supply may remain at a relatively high

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various commodity futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as their year - to - date price changes and持仓量 and capital flow information [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 1,016.30 with a weekly increase of 3.71%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 13.43%, and a volatility change of 13.75%. Silver closed at 18,319.00 with a weekly increase of 19.14%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 43.50%, and a volatility change of 33.41% [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 98,720.00 with a 5.95% weekly increase; nickel at 126,750.00 with a 7.91% increase; aluminum at 22,405.00 with a 0.99% increase; tin at 338,550.00 with a 1.58% decrease; zinc at 23,170.00 with a 0.41% increase; lead at 17,555.00 with a 4.00% increase; industrial silicon at 8,880.00 with a 2.19% increase [2] - **Black Metals**: Coke closed at 1,720.00 with a 1.15% decrease; coking coal at 1,115.50 with a 0.68% increase; iron ore at 783.00 with a 0.38% increase; rebar at 3,118.00 with a 0.03% decrease; hot - rolled coil at 3,283.00 with a 0.43% increase; ferrosilicon at 5,672.00 with a 0.57% increase; silicomanganese at 5,840.00 with a 0.55% increase; stainless steel at 12,955.00 with a 1.85% increase [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil closed at 441.80 with a 3.56% increase; fuel oil at 2,491.00 with a 4.23% increase; LU at 3,017.00 with a 3.53% increase; LPG at 4,080.00 with a 0.46% decrease; asphalt at 2,995.00 with a 2.96% increase; PVC at 4,832.00 with a 3.87% increase; polyethylene at 6,465.00 with a 2.29% increase; polypropylene at 6,292.00 with a 1.27% increase; styrene at 6,787.00 with a 6.01% increase; PTA at 5,280.00 with an 8.15% increase; ethylene glycol at 3,846.00 with a 2.89% increase; short - fiber at 6,666.00 with a 5.94% increase; methanol at 2,161.00 with a 0.61% increase; urea at 1,735.00 with a 2.24% increase; glass at 1,057.00 with a 1.54% increase; soda ash at 1,200.00 with a 2.04% increase; natural rubber at 15,780.00 with a 3.88% increase [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton closed at 14,535.00 with a 3.71% increase; sugar at 5,285.00 with a 3.87% increase; corn at 2,222.00 with a 1.37% increase; apple at 9,247.00 with a 0.52% increase; starch at 2,514.00 with a 0.88% increase; soybean No. 1 at 4,128.00 with a 1.08% increase; soybean No. 2 at 3,491.00 with a 2.26% increase; soybean meal at 2,790.00 with a 2.01% increase; soybean oil at 7,836.00 with a 1.61% increase; palm oil at 8,568.00 with a 3.33% increase; rapeseed meal at 2,391.00 with a 2.93% increase; rapeseed oil at 9,046.00 with a 3.45% increase; pulp at 5,630.00 with a 2.25% increase [2] - **Livestock Products**: Egg closed at 2,957.00 with a 2.46% increase; live pig at 11,645.00 with a 2.83% increase [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC closed at 7,388.00 with a 4.71% increase; IF at 4,638.40 with a 2.46% increase; IM at 7,472.40 with a 4.63% increase; IH at 3,051.40 with a 1.50% increase; T at 108.30 with a 0.14% increase; TS at 102.55 with a 0.06% increase; TF at 106.05 with a 0.08% increase [3] 3.2 Year - to - Date Price Changes - Silver had a year - to - date increase of 145.23%, gold 64.56%, and tin 38.26%. Some commodities had significant year - to - date decreases, such as PVC with a 20.95% decrease and LPG with a 25.11% decrease [13] 3.3 Position and Capital Flow - **Position Changes**: The positions of coke, PTA, lead, urea, and soybean No. 1 increased significantly [15][16] - **Capital Flow**: The capital attention of silver, gold, copper, nickel, and PTA increased [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, industrial metals, agricultural products, and energy products. It assesses the current market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each commodity, and offers corresponding investment suggestions [5][8][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a mixed performance in treasury bond futures. The 30 - year contract declined by 0.19%, while the 10 - year and 5 - year contracts rose by 0.05% and 0.03% respectively, and the 2 - year contract fell by 0.02%. The central bank conducted 135.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 18 billion yuan. Given the current macro - economic situation, treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [5][6]. Stocks - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day witnessed mixed results in stock index futures, with all major contracts showing declines. Although the domestic economic situation is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, due to low asset valuations, sufficient economic resilience, improved market sentiment, and reduced Sino - US economic and trade uncertainties, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and investors can consider taking long positions [8]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined in the previous trading day. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", central bank gold purchases, and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend. Investors can wait and watch for long - position opportunities [10]. Industrial Metals - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations in the previous trading day. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation remains unfavorable, with weak demand due to the real - estate downturn and approaching off - season, and high inventory levels. The prices are expected to remain weak, and investors can consider short - selling at high prices during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures rebounded slightly in the previous trading day. The supply - demand pattern is weak, with a decline in iron - water production, an increase in imports, and rising port inventories. Technically, there may be a correction, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly in the previous trading day. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand for coke weakened. Technically, there are signs of stabilization, but the medium - term weakness remains. Investors can consider long - positions at low prices [16][17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices declined in the previous trading day. The supply of ferroalloys is in excess, with high production levels and weak demand. However, the cost is rising, and the downward space is limited. Investors can consider long - positions at low prices when the spot losses expand [19][20]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper futures contract declined in the previous trading day. The global copper concentrate supply - demand imbalance is intensified, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to tighten. However, high copper prices have weakened terminal purchases. The price may face a technical correction after a strong rise [46]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum futures contract rose slightly in the previous trading day. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is constrained, and the demand shows some resilience. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [48]. - **Zinc**: The zinc futures contract declined in the previous trading day. The production of refined zinc is decreasing, and the consumption is in the off - season. Although the inventory is decreasing, the consumption drag and the expected oversupply next year remain. Caution is advised when chasing the price up [50]. - **Lead**: The lead futures contract declined in the previous trading day. The supply is shrinking, and the inventory is at a low level, limiting the downward space. However, weak demand and potential import pressure restrict the upward space. The price is expected to oscillate [52]. - **Tin**: The tin futures contract rose slightly in the previous trading day. The supply is tight, and the demand shows some resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [54][56]. - **Nickel**: The nickel futures contract declined in the previous trading day. The nickel ore price is stable, but the downstream consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to oscillate [57]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal prices rose, while soybean oil prices fell in the previous trading day. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, while the demand for soybean oil is slightly improving but still facing supply pressure. Investors can consider long - positions at low - cost support levels [58][59]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices continued to decline. The international oil price also fell. The export of palm oil decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. It is recommended to wait and watch [60][61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canola prices continued to decline, affected by the falling crude oil price. The import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in China increased. It is recommended to wait and watch [62][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices declined slightly, and international cotton prices were also under pressure. The US and global cotton inventories increased. Although the domestic cotton harvest is good, the inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The price is expected to be strong [65][67]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices declined. The sugar production in Brazil decreased, while India's production increased significantly. The domestic sugar supply pressure is increasing, but the 01 contract price is lower than the spot price, and the warehouse receipt volume is low. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [69][70]. - **Apples**: Apple futures prices declined significantly. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The price is expected to be strong [72]. - **Pigs**: The national average price of live pigs declined slightly. The supply of large - weight pigs is gradually increasing, and the consumption may increase. It is recommended to wait and watch [74][75]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices remained stable. The egg production is at a high level, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and watch [76][78]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures prices declined. The new - season corn harvest is good, but the transportation and farmers' reluctance to sell have affected the supply. The demand for corn is growing slightly, while the supply of corn starch is increasing rapidly, and the inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to wait for the release of supply pressure [79][80]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil prices declined. The CFTC data shows that US funds increased their net short positions. The price of Brent crude oil fell below $60, and the price trend is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and watch [21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices declined and closed below the 5 - day moving average. The inventory in Singapore increased significantly, and the cost of crude oil is weak. The price has a large rebound space. It is recommended to wait and watch [24][25]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices declined. The supply is expected to decrease due to plant maintenance, and the demand is weak. The market is mainly focused on inventory reduction. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [27]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber prices rose. The price is supported by cost and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in supply - side equipment and demand recovery [29][30]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber prices showed a mixed performance. The supply is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [32]. - **PVC**: PVC prices rose. The supply is in excess, and the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the changes in the supply side [34][35]. - **Urea**: Urea prices remained stable. The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand from the industrial sector is strong. The price is expected to rise slightly [36]. - **PX**: PX prices rose slightly. The short - term PXN spread has been repaired, and the profit has improved. The price may oscillate, and attention should be paid to the changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [38][39]. - **PTA**: PTA prices declined. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and the processing fee is stable. The price may oscillate, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply pressure is relieved, but the port inventory is increasing. The price may oscillate, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [41][42]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber prices rose slightly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The price may follow the cost and oscillate, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: Bottle chip prices declined. The raw material price support is limited, and the export growth has slowed down. The price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. The inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption and the resumption of mining production [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price and volume data of various futures, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemical products, agricultural products, financial futures, etc., and shows the year-to-date price changes and the changes in average daily open interest and precipitation funds [2][4][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Futures Price and Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 970.66 with a 1.00% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 16.59%, volatility change of -9.40%, speculation degree of 1.31, trend degree of 0.03, and capital change of 47.37; Silver closed at 14,892.00 with an 8.80% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 37.70%, volatility change of 3.90%, speculation degree of 3.97, trend degree of 0.30, and capital change of 43.39 [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper, nickel, aluminum, tin, zinc, lead, and industrial silicon showed different price changes, volatilities, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes. For example, copper closed at 94,080.00 with a 1.40% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 16.71%, volatility change of 22.77%, speculation degree of 0.81, trend degree of 0.08, and capital change of -14.36 [2] - **Black Metals**: Products such as rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and stainless steel had their own price trends, volatilities, etc. For instance, rebar closed at 3,060.00 with a 3.07% weekly decrease, 20 - day annualized volatility of 13.01%, volatility change of 44.45%, speculation degree of 0.83, trend degree of -0.47, and capital change of -12.59 [2] - **Energy and Chemical Products**: Crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, asphalt, PVC, polyethylene, etc. all had corresponding price fluctuations and other data. For example, crude oil closed at 437.60 with a 3.55% weekly decrease, 20 - day annualized volatility of 16.94%, volatility change of -19.12%, speculation degree of 2.26, trend degree of -0.28, and capital change of -5.72 [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton, sugar, corn, soybeans, etc. showed different performance. For example, cotton closed at 13,835.00 with a 0.62% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 5.63%, volatility change of -2.35%, speculation degree of 0.54, trend degree of 0.01, and capital change of 9.83 [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC, IF, IM, IH, T, TS, TF had their respective prices, weekly changes, volatilities, etc. For example, IC closed at 7,174.00 with a 1.28% weekly increase, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.37%, volatility change of -5.33%, speculation degree of 0.63, trend degree of 0.07, and capital change of 23.50 [4] Year - to - Date Price Changes - Different futures products had varying year - to - date price changes. For example, silver had a 99.36% increase, while glass had a 28.80% decrease [13] Changes in Average Daily Open Interest - The average daily open interest of products such as cotton yarn, rapeseed meal, asphalt, soybean oil, and live pigs had relatively large increases [15] Changes in Precipitation Funds - Gold, silver, tin, and cotton had increased capital attention, with corresponding changes in precipitation funds [16][17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum still needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The valuation of domestic assets is at a low level, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The slowdown of the US labor market and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Fed are also beneficial to precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise, and investors can wait and see for long - position opportunities [10]. - In the medium term, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are likely to remain weak, but there may be a short - term rebound. Investors can pay attention to high - level short - position opportunities during the rebound [12]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and there may be resistance to its price increase. Investors can pay attention to high - level short - position opportunities [14]. - Coke and coking coal futures may encounter resistance when rebounding. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities [17]. - The overall oversupply pressure of ferroalloys has weakened. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [20]. - The US - Russia talks send positive signals, which is negative for crude oil prices, but OPEC+ suspending production increase in the first quarter of next year gives market confidence. The crude oil main contract should be temporarily observed [21][22]. - The deepening of the Asian fuel oil spot discount is positive for fuel oil prices, while the constructive results of the US - Russia negotiation are negative. The fuel oil main contract should be temporarily observed [25][26]. - The domestic polypropylene downstream industries are obviously differentiated. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities for polyolefins [28]. - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate within a wide range with limited downward space. Investors should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [30]. - The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [32]. - The current PVC supply exceeds demand, and the price may not have much room to fall further. Investors should pay attention to supply - side changes [34]. - The price of urea is expected to decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [37]. - In the short term, PX may fluctuate and adjust. Investors should control positions, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and pay attention to macro - policy changes [39]. - In the short term, PTA may fluctuate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. - In the short term, ethylene glycol may face pressure. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. - In the short term, short - fiber may fluctuate following costs. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - In the future, bottle - grade polyester chips are expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Investors should control risks [44]. - For lithium carbonate, investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption and the resumption progress of mines [45]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong, but investors should be aware of the callback risk after hitting a new high [47]. - In the short term, the price of electrolytic aluminum is in an adjustment state, while alumina prices are under pressure. Investors should pay attention to substantial production - cut trends [49]. - Zinc prices are likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [52]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate [54]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [57]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [60]. - For palm oil, investors can consider going long on pullbacks [62]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider a long - biased approach [64]. - The upward space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [67]. - Sugar prices are under pressure and are expected to fluctuate [69]. - Apple prices are expected to be strong [71]. - For live pigs, after partially closing out short positions, investors can consider holding the remaining short positions [74]. - For eggs, investors should consider temporary observation [77]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see and wait for the further release of supply pressure after transportation resumes. Corn starch may follow the corn market [80]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed up, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.26% at 113.610 yuan, the 10 - year main contract up 0.06% at 108.040 yuan, the 5 - year main contract up 0.07% at 105.850 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.03% at 102.420 yuan [5]. - The central bank conducted 793 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 3rd, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 2133 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1340 billion yuan [5]. - China's November S&P composite PMI was 51.2, and the service PMI was 52.1. The new order index continued to grow, and the new export order improved significantly [5]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contract of CSI 300 index futures (IF) was down 0.30%, the main contract of SSE 50 index futures (IH) was down 0.35%, the main contract of CSI 500 index futures (IC) was down 0.41%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 index futures (IM) was down 0.58% [8]. - From January to November this year, the replacement of consumer goods with new ones drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting more than 360 million people [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 956.7, with a decline of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 955.66; the closing price of the silver main contract was 13,582, with an increase of 1.18%, and the night - session closing price was 13608 [10]. - The US November ADP employment decreased by 32,000 people, with an expected increase of 10,000 people [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The latest price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 3000 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3170 - 3300 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils was between 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton [12]. - In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply side still has over - capacity, and the rebar inventory is significantly higher than last year [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The port spot price of PB powder was 797 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 685 yuan/ton [14]. - Since October, the daily output of molten iron in the country has been declining, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, and the port inventory has continued to rise [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures encountered resistance when rebounding. The impact of safety inspections on coking coal production is weakening, and the supply is increasing. The demand from downstream coke enterprises is weakening, and the auction price of coking coal has decreased [16][17]. - After the fourth increase in the spot purchase price of coke, the profit of coking enterprises has improved, and the supply is stable. However, the demand from steel mills may weaken due to the compression of blast furnace profits [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ferromanganese silicon closed down 0.03% at 5724 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon closed down 0.11% at 5446 yuan/ton [19]. - In the week of November 28th, the shipment volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased to 56,900 tons, the supply of Australian ore increased since June, and the port manganese ore inventory increased slightly to 4.38 million tons [19]. - The production of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased by 2100 tons and 1100 tons respectively last week, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak [19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The US envoy's negotiation with Russia was constructive [21]. - The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased for the third consecutive week as of November 21st [21]. - OPEC+ may maintain the oil production level at the Sunday meeting and reach an agreement on the mechanism for evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity [21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil hit a low and then rebounded, hitting a new low during the session. The market is concerned about the large - scale supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East [24]. - The Singapore fuel oil inventory is at a high level, and the inflow of fuel oil from outside Asia will increase [24]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the offer of the Hangzhou PP market showed some high - price loosening, and the high - price transactions were difficult to expand. The price of the Yuyao LLDPE market was adjusted by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [28]. - The average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83%. The demand in the packaging industry decreased after the e - commerce festival, while the operating rates of the PP non - woven fabric and PP pipe industries increased [28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 0.49%. The price in Shandong remained stable at 11,600 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [30]. - The short - term supply shortage pushed up the price. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will fluctuate widely this week, and the downward space is limited [30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber fell 0.65%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber fell 0.86%. The Shanghai spot price was adjusted down to around 14,900 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [32]. - It is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate within a range in the short term. The high price of overseas raw materials supports the rubber price, the operating rate of tire enterprises has rebounded significantly, and the inventory shows differentiation [32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell 0.44%, the spot price remained stable, and the basis remained stable [34]. - In November 2025, the estimated PVC output was 2.0788 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32% and a year - on - year increase of 5.60%. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the industry inventory is expected to reach 1.53 million tons [34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose 0.59%. The price in Shandong Linyi increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [37]. - The daily supply of urea is around 200,000 tons, which restricts the upward space of prices. The new round of export quotas and the concentrated procurement in the Northeast region boost the market sentiment [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX fell 0.49%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 280 US dollars/ton, and the short - process profit remained stable. The PX - MX spread was 120 US dollars/ton [39]. - The PX operating rate was 88.3%, a slight month - on - month decline. Zhejiang Petrochemical has maintenance plans for CDU and reforming in January 2026, and PX production may decrease [39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2601 fell 0.46%. The PTA operating rate was adjusted to 73.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% [40]. - The polyester operating rate was 91.5%, and the long - filament operating rate increased moderately. The PTA processing fee was adjusted to around 170 yuan/ton [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell 1.55%. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 73.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.46% [41]. - The inventory in the main ports of East China was about 753,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports from December 1st to 7th is about 161,000 tons [41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber fell 0.29%. The short - fiber operating rate rose to around 97.5% [42]. - The processing fee of short - fiber was adjusted to around 1020 yuan/ton, and the demand side changed little [43]. Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle - grade polyester chips fell 0.59%. The processing fee was adjusted to around 400 yuan/ton [44]. - The operating rate of bottle - grade polyester chip factories dropped to 72.2%. The export of bottle - grade polyester chips increased slightly, with a total export volume of 5.333 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 14% [44]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 2.82% to 93,660 yuan/ton. There was news of mine resumption this year, which alleviated the shortage expectation [45]. - The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the consumption in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved [45]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 90,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.01% [46]. - The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected and the previous value, and the ADP employment showed negative growth [47]. - The supply of copper ore is growing slowly, the processing fee of copper concentrate is in a deep negative range, and the demand for refined copper is affected by high prices and scrap copper substitution [47]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.53%, and the main contract of alumina closed at 2632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% [49]. - The supply of domestic ore is tight, but the arrival of imported ore from Guinea has increased. The alumina market is in a state of oversupply, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting is considerable but the production increase space is limited [49]. - The demand for aluminum has entered the traditional off - season, and the high price suppresses the downstream procurement willingness [49]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% [52]. - The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the processing fee is decreasing, and the demand has entered the traditional off - season, but there is still some rigid demand at the end of the year [52]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% [54]. - The supply shortage of domestic lead concentrate has been slightly alleviated, and the supply is expected to increase. The battery market is in the off - season,