热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯玉米市场分析师邹骏 【导语】2025年12月东南沿海玉米市场价格先涨后落再涨，南北贸易利差逐步收窄至盈亏线附近。市场 看多情绪减弱，但成本因素对价格尚有支撑，市场交投活跃度较低。1月东南沿海市场或迎供需双增， 价格或难以形成单边趋势，区间震荡为主。 12月需求端对价格影响较弱。一方面因下游企业前期合同陆续到货，形成一定库存基数后多执行轮动采 购补库，并且中大企业对现货采购的需求下降，市场阶段性采购量与采购频率均减弱，港口走货量维持 相对平稳，以蛇口港为例，12月日均走货量维持在5.5万-6.5万吨之间。另一方面由于进口玉米及进口谷 物销售放行，下游企业对内贸玉米的采购量及提货量均有减少，这也使得南港中间市场库存出现累积。 库存方面，12月南北港口玉米库存均有提升，但增幅有限，同比依旧处于相对低位。截止到2025年12月 29日，北方四个主要玉米贸易港口库存合计179.74万吨，较11月末库存增加14.60%，同比减少69.06%。 广东港口（粤东）内外贸库存65.80万吨，较11月末增加37.95%，同比减少54.93%。12月因下游企 ...

此番价格调整，尤其是产区松动，主要受市场传闻和期货大跌影响，也反映了部分市场参与者的心态。 前期上涨过快已超出理性，东北售粮进度偏快，而港口和深加工库存偏低，粮源流向值得关注。价格高 企使下游承接困难，生猪养殖持续亏损，甚至有深加工停产，期货盘面也提前透支行情。基层农户虽受 益，但实际利润有限，玉米涨价促使替代品优势显现。同时，农户售粮时间窗口收窄，后期卖压后移可 能导致踩踏式集中售卖风险。 （来源：中华粮网） 来源：中华粮网 中华粮网致力于成为中国粮食行业最权威、最专业的信息及数据服务提供商。 今年玉米市场走势不同寻常，在传统供应旺季，因看涨情绪浓厚、基层惜售、东北需求强劲及物流受限 等因素，价格不跌反涨，近期更是大幅冲高，东北地区涨势尤为明显。甚至出现直属库带头提价，如12 月3日哈尔滨直属库上调收购价百元，带动产区价格普涨，但也导致部分深加工企业收购困难、生产受 限。本周玉米价格出现松动，调整迹象显现。 近日华北地区玉米供应量减少，深加工门前到车辆呈下滑趋势。12月3日山东晨间到车1224台，为近期 高点，之后持续减少，8日仅399台，为近两周最低。周二到车量回升至628台，但山东玉米价格总体稳 定，企 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: November 06, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Northeast corn prices are stable after new - season supply shock, with state - reserve purchases limiting downside; North China prices fluctuate due to selling pressure and acquisition competition; corn prices are still affected by new - season selling pressure but have stopped falling [2] - On Wednesday, the corn futures market had a narrow - range shock, while the starch market was strong; the CBOT corn futures rose due to high US ethanol production [2] - The market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the price may show a bottom - consolidation and potential rebound trend [2] Summary by Category Market Situation - **Domestic Corn and Starch Futures**: On Wednesday, the corn futures main 01 contract closed at 2134 yuan, with slightly reduced trading volume, slightly increased open interest, and 66351 registered warrants; the starch main 01 contract closed at 2451 yuan, with decreased trading volume and slightly increased open interest [2] - **CBOT Corn Futures**: On Wednesday, CBOT corn futures closed higher. As of October 31, US ethanol daily production reached a record high of 1.123 million barrels, and strong domestic demand offset the pressure of a bumper harvest [2] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Selling pressure is dispersed, reducing price pressure; state - reserve purchases in the Northeast support prices; rising prices of surrounding agricultural products indirectly support the corn market [2] - **Negative Factors**: The pig industry's capacity regulation affects long - term corn feed demand, although short - term demand remains good; late - harvested corn will be listed in mid - to - early November, and there is a risk of concentrated selling pressure; market rumors of wheat auctions and increased grain imports may increase pressure on the corn market [2][3] Price Forecast - **Monthly Price Range**: Corn is predicted to be in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.43% and a volatility percentile of 53.2%; starch is predicted to be in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.61% and a volatility percentile of 42.30% [3] Price and Spread Data - **Domestic Futures Price Changes**: From November 4th to 5th, most corn and starch futures contracts had small price changes, with some rising and some remaining flat; the wheat average price decreased by 3 yuan to 2511 yuan [5] - **US Agricultural Futures and Import Data**: CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat main contracts all rose on the 5th; the US Gulf and West Coast corn import duty - paid prices increased slightly, with import profits of 96.03 yuan and 212.15 yuan respectively [24] Seasonal Charts - The report also includes multiple seasonal charts, such as corn futures month - spread (01 - 05), corn and starch main - contract closing prices, corn and starch futures open interest, corn and wheat price spreads, and corn basis spreads, which can be used to analyze historical price trends and seasonal patterns [6][7][12]