Core Viewpoint - The corn market in Southeast coastal regions is expected to experience fluctuations in prices, with a trend of rising and falling prices observed in December 2025. The market sentiment is weakening, but cost factors still provide support for prices, leading to low trading activity. January 2026 may see an increase in both supply and demand, making it difficult for prices to form a unilateral trend, with expectations of a range-bound market [3][16]. Price Trends - In early December 2025, corn prices in the southern coastal regions continued the upward trend from November, with the reference price for second-class corn at Shekou Port around 2460 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from the end of November. Prices then fell to 2380 yuan/ton by December 26, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the peak and 20 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. By December 30, prices rebounded to 2410 yuan/ton, a recovery of 30 yuan/ton from the low and a 10 yuan/ton increase from the start of the month [3][16]. Trade Dynamics - The trade differential between northern and southern ports has narrowed to near breakeven levels, with the theoretical trade differential at approximately -5 yuan/ton as of December 26. The average monthly profit decreased by 18 yuan/ton compared to November, while the real-time trade differential averaged 25.13 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63 yuan/ton from November [4][17]. Cost Factors - Cost support for southern coastal prices has weakened, with market sentiment shifting. The influence of northern port costs on southern prices has transitioned from a boosting effect to a supportive one. The ongoing sentiment of farmers holding back on sales and rising prices in production areas have kept trade prices strong, but the decline in futures prices has reduced the purchasing enthusiasm of northern port traders [6][19]. Market Sentiment - The sentiment in December was influenced by national factors, with farmers in production areas reluctant to sell at low prices. The purchasing demand from feed enterprises decreased as they faced high costs, leading to an increase in inventory levels in the sales areas. Despite a temporary decline in demand, farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices persisted, and by the end of the month, purchasing enthusiasm from processing enterprises increased, providing a boost to prices [7][20]. Demand and Inventory - Demand in December had a weak impact on prices, as downstream enterprises executed contracts leading to inventory accumulation. The average daily shipment volume at Shekou Port remained stable between 55,000 to 65,000 tons. Both northern and southern port inventories increased, with northern ports reaching 1.7974 million tons, a 14.6% increase from November, but a 69.06% decrease year-on-year. Southern ports had an inventory of 658,000 tons, a 37.95% increase from November, but a 54.93% decrease year-on-year [9][22]. January Outlook - In January 2026, the Southeast coastal corn market may enter a phase of increased supply and demand due to pre-holiday stocking by downstream enterprises. The northern port purchasing price is expected to remain supported by cost factors, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 250 yuan/ton. However, high costs are impacting the profitability of the breeding sector, which may affect purchasing enthusiasm. The presence of imported grains with price advantages may also divert some purchasing volume away from corn [12][24]. Price Forecast - Overall, the corn market in Southeast coastal regions is expected to experience price support from cost factors and temporary demand boosts, but will also face constraints from poor terminal profitability and the price advantages of substitutes. The forecast for January indicates a price range of 2380 to 2440 yuan/ton, with no significant supply-demand contradictions anticipated [13][25].

Group 1 - The corn market is experiencing unusual trends this year, with prices rising instead of falling during the traditional supply peak due to bullish sentiment, limited selling from farmers, strong demand in Northeast China, and logistical constraints [1][2] - In the Northeast region, prices have surged significantly, with direct warehouses increasing purchase prices, leading to widespread price increases in production areas [1] - Recent adjustments in corn prices indicate a market reaction to bearish news and a significant drop in futures prices, reflecting the mindset of market participants [2] Group 2 - In North China, the supply of corn has decreased, with a notable drop in the number of vehicles arriving for processing, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The port of Jinzhou has maintained high collection volumes but is experiencing a price decline due to changing market sentiments, with recent prices dropping by 20 yuan [3] - Southern ports are seeing a continued decline in inventory levels, with significant reductions reported in Guangdong and Fujian, suggesting potential future increases in supply [4] Group 3 - Futures prices for corn have been on a downward trend, with the C2601 contract closing at 2236 yuan/ton, reflecting a significant drop from recent highs [4][6] - The market is currently characterized by a shift from bullish to bearish sentiment, with technical indicators suggesting a potential trend reversal [8] - Global corn prices are under pressure due to ample supply and favorable conditions in South America, despite strong export performance from the U.S. [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: November 06, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Northeast corn prices are stable after new - season supply shock, with state - reserve purchases limiting downside; North China prices fluctuate due to selling pressure and acquisition competition; corn prices are still affected by new - season selling pressure but have stopped falling [2] - On Wednesday, the corn futures market had a narrow - range shock, while the starch market was strong; the CBOT corn futures rose due to high US ethanol production [2] - The market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and the price may show a bottom - consolidation and potential rebound trend [2] Summary by Category Market Situation - **Domestic Corn and Starch Futures**: On Wednesday, the corn futures main 01 contract closed at 2134 yuan, with slightly reduced trading volume, slightly increased open interest, and 66351 registered warrants; the starch main 01 contract closed at 2451 yuan, with decreased trading volume and slightly increased open interest [2] - **CBOT Corn Futures**: On Wednesday, CBOT corn futures closed higher. As of October 31, US ethanol daily production reached a record high of 1.123 million barrels, and strong domestic demand offset the pressure of a bumper harvest [2] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Selling pressure is dispersed, reducing price pressure; state - reserve purchases in the Northeast support prices; rising prices of surrounding agricultural products indirectly support the corn market [2] - **Negative Factors**: The pig industry's capacity regulation affects long - term corn feed demand, although short - term demand remains good; late - harvested corn will be listed in mid - to - early November, and there is a risk of concentrated selling pressure; market rumors of wheat auctions and increased grain imports may increase pressure on the corn market [2][3] Price Forecast - **Monthly Price Range**: Corn is predicted to be in the range of 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.43% and a volatility percentile of 53.2%; starch is predicted to be in the range of 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.61% and a volatility percentile of 42.30% [3] Price and Spread Data - **Domestic Futures Price Changes**: From November 4th to 5th, most corn and starch futures contracts had small price changes, with some rising and some remaining flat; the wheat average price decreased by 3 yuan to 2511 yuan [5] - **US Agricultural Futures and Import Data**: CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat main contracts all rose on the 5th; the US Gulf and West Coast corn import duty - paid prices increased slightly, with import profits of 96.03 yuan and 212.15 yuan respectively [24] Seasonal Charts - The report also includes multiple seasonal charts, such as corn futures month - spread (01 - 05), corn and starch main - contract closing prices, corn and starch futures open interest, corn and wheat price spreads, and corn basis spreads, which can be used to analyze historical price trends and seasonal patterns [6][7][12]