Core Insights - The corn market in the southeastern coastal region of China showed a downward trend in August 2025, with two price rebounds occurring mid-month and at the end of the month, while some trading companies began pre-selling new crop corn [1][4][6] Price Trends - As of August 29, the price of second-grade corn at Shekou Port was approximately 2350 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY/ton from the beginning of the month [1] - Northern ports also experienced a price decline, with the mainstream settlement price at 2260 CNY/ton, reflecting a similar decrease of 50 CNY/ton [3] - The average theoretical trade differential between southern and northern ports was -63.10 CNY/ton, a decrease of 18.32 CNY/ton from the previous month [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market sentiment remained bearish due to continuous supply from northeastern grain auctions and a lack of corresponding purchasing increases from the demand side [3][6] - By the end of August, total corn inventory at southern and northern ports was 2.7656 million tons, similar to the previous year, while Guangdong's foreign trade grain inventory decreased by 17.8% year-on-year [8] Future Outlook - In September, the corn market will officially enter a transitional phase, with expectations of stable prices around 2350 CNY/ton, although demand may decrease due to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [8] - If the new crop's market entry is delayed, prices may see a short-term increase of 20-40 CNY/ton, but will likely revert to around 2300 CNY/ton thereafter [9]

Core Viewpoint - The corn prices in the North China market have shifted from rising to falling since July 4, primarily due to increased supply from traders and stable demand, leading to a slight decrease in prices [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of July 4, the average corn price in North China was 2427.85 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 0.26% and a year-on-year increase of 1.86% [1]. - The price drop is attributed to enhanced shipment activities by traders, resulting in a temporary increase in corn supply [1][3]. Group 2: Trader Behavior - Traders have been actively selling corn to lock in profits, with reported outflow profits around 300 yuan/ton as of late June and early July [3]. - Concerns over increased auction volumes of imported corn have led traders to anticipate limited price increases, prompting them to boost their selling activities [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The onset of the rainy season and the introduction of imported genetically modified corn have diversified the factors affecting the corn market [4]. - The auction of imported corn is expected to influence market sentiment and supply dynamics, potentially limiting price increases [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, corn prices in North China are expected to remain weak due to increased supply, but may strengthen later in July as concentrated shipments decrease [5]. - The overall supply-demand relationship in the corn market is relatively loose, with expectations of price adjustments depending on auction volumes and transaction conditions [5].