2025年8月东南沿海玉米市场价格总体呈现下行趋势，但月中与月末出现两次反弹，并且远月新作价格 也有部分贸易企业开始预售。 南北港口贸易利差方面，8月虽然南北港价格趋势相同，但由于南港出现两次价格反弹，贸易利差出现 两次波动，但依旧没有改变南北港口持续的贸易倒挂运作。全月南北港口理论贸易平均利差为-63.10元 ／吨，环比上月下跌18.32元／吨，全月南北港实时价格平均利差-41.43元／吨，环比上月下跌6.54元／ 吨，总体8月南北港贸易负利情况较7月加剧。 8月影响南北港口价格回落的主要因素依旧为市场看空情绪。一方面，东北产区轮换粮拍卖与双向货源 的出库持续补充产区供应。而需求端却未持续有对应的采购增量：东北深加工企业普遍下调收购价格， 饲料企业常规库存也基本覆盖至9月末至10月初，整体供需关系在8月呈现阶段性矛盾提升，利空市场情 绪。 另一方面新疆玉米零星上市，市场新作开秤价格较陈作每吨低将近150元，给其他产区一定的预售价格 参考与情绪压力。北港新作玉米预售平仓价在2220-2240元／吨，较目前北港平仓价每吨低120至140 元。 另外期货盘面的走势也给与南北港价格一定程度的趋势参考。8月连盘玉米主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The corn prices in the North China market have shifted from rising to falling since July 4, primarily due to increased supply from traders and stable demand, leading to a slight decrease in prices [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of July 4, the average corn price in North China was 2427.85 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 0.26% and a year-on-year increase of 1.86% [1]. - The price drop is attributed to enhanced shipment activities by traders, resulting in a temporary increase in corn supply [1][3]. Group 2: Trader Behavior - Traders have been actively selling corn to lock in profits, with reported outflow profits around 300 yuan/ton as of late June and early July [3]. - Concerns over increased auction volumes of imported corn have led traders to anticipate limited price increases, prompting them to boost their selling activities [3][4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The onset of the rainy season and the introduction of imported genetically modified corn have diversified the factors affecting the corn market [4]. - The auction of imported corn is expected to influence market sentiment and supply dynamics, potentially limiting price increases [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - In the short term, corn prices in North China are expected to remain weak due to increased supply, but may strengthen later in July as concentrated shipments decrease [5]. - The overall supply-demand relationship in the corn market is relatively loose, with expectations of price adjustments depending on auction volumes and transaction conditions [5].