Core Insights - The Chinese toy industry is undergoing significant transformation, moving from a reliance on OEM production to developing proprietary brands and IPs, as exemplified by the rise of original IPs like Labubu and the emergence of "copycat" products [1][2][3] - The export landscape is shifting, with self-branded toys accounting for 65.51% of total exports in 2024, indicating a successful brand transformation [2] - Despite the growth in self-branded exports, many toy factories still depend on low-margin OEM production, facing challenges such as order fluctuations and rising costs [2][7] Industry Challenges - The Chinese toy industry experienced a decline in exports after 26 months of growth, attributed to economic downturns and global supply chain adjustments [3] - High tariffs imposed in 2025 further exacerbated the challenges faced by toy manufacturers, leading to production halts in some cases [3][7] - Many companies are struggling with declining profit margins due to increased costs and heightened competition, prompting a search for new markets [7][8] Market Dynamics - The U.S. remains the largest market for Chinese toy exports, with a total export value of $10.55 billion in 2024, representing a 4.24% year-on-year increase [5] - Approximately 75% of toys purchased in the U.S. are sourced from China, highlighting the dependency of U.S. toy companies on Chinese manufacturing [6] - Companies are increasingly diversifying their market presence to mitigate risks associated with U.S. market fluctuations, with a focus on emerging markets and domestic sales [9][10] Strategic Shifts - Toy manufacturers are actively exploring new markets, including the Middle East and Southeast Asia, to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [10][11][13] - The domestic market is also gaining attention, with significant growth potential in the潮玩 (trendy toys) and二次元 (anime) sectors, projected to reach a market size of 77.42 billion yuan and 72.7 billion yuan respectively in 2024 [14] - Companies are leveraging their supply chain advantages to attract overseas clients, with notable interest from Middle Eastern countries [11][12] Innovation and Value Creation - The潮玩 and IP derivative products are emerging as key growth areas, with companies focusing on unique designs and branding to capture consumer interest [15] - High-end creative products, such as handcrafted models, are gaining traction in international markets, allowing companies to command higher profit margins [21] - The shift towards creating products with artistic and collectible value is seen as a strategic move to enhance competitiveness and resilience against market fluctuations [21]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Bluko, has shown significant revenue growth in 2024, but signals of slowing growth in the second half of the year raise concerns about its future performance [3][4]. Revenue Performance - In 2024, Bluko's revenue is projected to be approximately 2.241 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 155.6% [3]. - Adjusted annual profit is expected to be around 585 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 702.1% [3]. - Revenue growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2024, with a projected year-on-year increase of 110.76% compared to 237.6% in the first half [4]. IP Contribution - The top three IPs contributing to revenue are Ultraman (1.096 billion yuan, 48.9%), Transformers (454 million yuan, 20.26%), and Heroes Unlimited (310 million yuan, 13.8%) [5]. - Revenue from key IPs like Ultraman and Heroes Unlimited is expected to decline in the second half of 2024, with Ultraman's revenue projected at 496 million yuan, a 17.3% decrease from the first half [5]. Market Context - The overall consumer market in China is experiencing low growth, with retail sales increasing by only 3.7% in the first half of 2024 [6]. - Bluko's products, primarily building toys, are less influenced by subsidy-driven consumption and rely more on product performance [6]. Growth Strategy - Bluko is expanding its IP portfolio significantly, increasing from about 27 IPs at the end of 2023 to approximately 50 by the end of 2024 [7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its cost-effectiveness, with average product prices dropping from 89 yuan in 2021 to 19 yuan in the first half of 2024 [8]. International Expansion - Bluko's overseas business is in its early stages, with revenue from international markets reaching 64 million yuan in 2024, accounting for only 2.9% of total revenue [9]. - The company is establishing subsidiaries in countries like the UK, Indonesia, and Singapore, and is participating in international events to boost its presence [9].