Workflow
环保力度
icon
Search documents
建信期货生猪日报-20250722
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 01:57
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 21st, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated higher, closing in the positive territory. The highest was 14,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,160 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,365 yuan/ton, up 1.77% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 7,352 lots to 167,973 lots [9]. - Spot: On the 21st, the average price of ternary pigs in the country was 14.40 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. Market Analysis - Demand: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly expanded, and the utilization rate of pens increased, indicating that the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment increased in the early stage. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 21, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 135,100 heads, a decrease of 700 heads from the previous day and an increase of 2,500 heads from a week ago [10]. - Supply: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% from June. Currently, the slaughter progress of the breeding side has recovered, the enthusiasm for slaughter has increased compared with the first ten days, the slaughter weight has slightly decreased, and the utilization rate of pens for secondary fattening pigs is relatively high. There are still secondary fattening pigs to be slaughtered in the future [10]. Outlook - In late July, the slaughter volume of large-scale farms will recover. In order to meet the monthly slaughter target, breeding enterprises may continue to increase the supply. At the same time, demand is in the off-season, and pig prices may continue to be under pressure [10]. - In the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs will continue to increase. However, the domestic anti-involution initiative and the strengthening of regional environmental protection policies are beneficial to the long-term performance of pig prices, especially the far-month contracts are affected by factors such as the expected reduction in weight and the increase in supply being less than the increase in demand. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [10]. Group 3: Industry News - As of July 18, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was 111 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 54 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was -126 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 82 yuan/head [11][13]. Group 4: Data Overview - On the week of July 17, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 542 yuan/head, an increase of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [22]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month-on-month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, -2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [22]. - As of the week of July 17, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.83 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg from the previous week and a month-on-month decrease of 0.16% [22].