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北化股份(002246):稀缺的全球硝化棉龙头 供给收缩推动盈利弹性释放
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 10:37
民用硝化棉在环保烟花领域应用空间广阔,公司具有技术储备。传统烟花燃烧会产生大量烟雾和残渣, 而以硝化棉制备的烟花,可以减少烟雾和污染物排放,在环保要求趋严的背景下,替代空间广阔。公司 在环保烟花领域已有一定的技术储备,若市场需求爆发,将具备先发优势。 盈利预测与投资评级:预计25-27 年公司实现营业收入分别为26.02、33.33、43.26 亿元,分别同比 +34%、+28%、+30%,实现归母净利润分别为2.59、4.11、5.53 亿元,分别同比+1016%、+59%、 +35%,当前股价对应25-27 年PE 分别为46/29/22X,受益于供给收缩、需求扩张,公司主营产品有望迎 来量价齐升局面,首次覆盖,给予"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示:硝化棉市场需求下滑;海外扩张风险;市场竞争加剧等。 国内硝化棉市场供给收缩幅度达46%。根据公司公告,2023 年公司硝化棉产能5.5 万吨,对应国内市占 率50%以上,按照50%测算,对应全国硝化棉产能约11 万吨。2023 年以来,行业产能持续收缩,首先 是事故引起的关停,例如2024 年5 月,雪飞化工发生爆炸事故,影响其2 万吨产能;2025 年5 月,衡 ...
新闻有观点·行业洞察丨烟花秀“遍地开花”,我们会审美疲劳吗?
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-06-26 16:28
Core Insights - The article discusses the rising popularity of fireworks shows in tourism, highlighting their transformation from a supporting role to a central attraction in scenic areas, driven by government policies promoting nighttime economies [2][3]. Industry Trends - Fireworks shows have become a standard feature in popular tourist destinations, such as Shanghai Disneyland and Xi'an's Datang Unnight City, enhancing visitor engagement and driving economic activity [2]. - The fireworks industry is expected to undergo significant changes starting in 2024, focusing on creative visuals, drone integration, and thematic performances, moving beyond traditional displays to immersive experiences [5][6]. Economic Impact - Fireworks shows are seen as crucial for attracting visitors and increasing secondary spending, with customized displays tailored to specific locations, despite higher initial costs [2][3]. - The preparation for large-scale fireworks events can take three to six months, involving extensive planning and coordination among various specialists [3]. Environmental Considerations - The industry faces environmental challenges, with a growing emphasis on eco-friendly fireworks, such as smokeless and cold fireworks, to mitigate air pollution [5][6]. - The future of fireworks shows is anticipated to blend technology and culture, creating a more immersive experience while addressing environmental concerns [6].