来源：市场资讯 一、各环节库存高企，煤炭周转速度放缓。当前秦唐沧三大港区煤炭库存已向上逼近3000万吨关口，同 比增长6.6%，而南方主要港口库存接近历史同期最高水平，内河主要港口库存同比涨幅更是高达12%， 各环节库存高位显著抑制有效需求向上传导。此外，港口场地趋于饱和，各港疏港压力骤增，进一步倒 逼集港发运规模萎缩，本周期大秦、张唐铁路周均运量仅有130万吨，处于历史同期低位水平，路港衔 接效率转差。在此情况下，卖方陷入被动出货状态，加上大型煤企外购价格骤降30-40元/吨，市场报盘 积极性与议价能力均有所减弱。 二、寒潮影响低于预期，短期利好因素出现踏空。今冬寒潮影响力度整体偏弱，北方多地未如期迎来大 范围降雪天气，南方地区气候也相对适中。冷空气带来的提振作用低于市场预期，待前期对市场的拉涨 作用快速消退后，市场悲观情绪有所加剧。数据显示，12月上半月，沿海电厂单日耗煤量最高仅有 206.8万吨，较去年同期近220万吨的峰值差距明显；上半月耗煤量均值不足200万吨，低于去年同期 3.3%。传统冬季电煤消费旺季的提振作用尚未显现，终端补库需求释放受到制约，买方在市场博弈中 的主动权进一步增强。 短期来看， ...

Core Viewpoint - The price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has shown a slight increase, driven primarily by supply-side factors, while demand-side pressures are beginning to limit price growth [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index reported at 677 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 1 RMB/ton compared to the previous period [1]. - Factors such as "overproduction checks" and safety rectifications in major production areas have led to a lack of increase in coal supply from key railway channels [1]. - The total inventory at Bohai Rim ports has remained below 23 million tons for nearly a month, with the accumulation pace not meeting expectations ahead of the National Day holiday and autumn maintenance [1]. - Non-electric procurement demand has supported rising coal prices at production sites, while port prices have also increased due to cost pressures and slow recovery of supply [1]. Demand Side Summary - Seasonal demand for coastal coal has weakened, with electricity load decreasing across provinces, leading to a rapid accumulation of inventory [2]. - Coastal power plants' inventory is 1.3 million tons higher than the same period last year, indicating a lack of strong pre-holiday replenishment demand [2]. - The impact of abundant rainfall in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir has enhanced hydropower generation, reducing the need for thermal coal during the off-peak season [2]. - The overall increase in coal prices has been primarily driven by supply-side factors, with demand-side characteristics indicating a potential stabilization in the near future [2].