Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 15, 2025, platinum and palladium prices soared. The platinum main - contract rose 7.0% to 482.4 yuan/gram, and the palladium main - contract rose 5.82% to 411.8 yuan/gram. The reasons were the market's trading of the potential future interest - rate cuts due to the perceived impairment of the Fed's independence and the tightening of the spot market supply [2]. - In 2026, platinum supply will maintain stable production with a limited increase in overall output, while palladium supply will see a slight increase. Platinum demand will grow, but palladium demand will face a significant decline. There will be a 37.9 - ton gap in platinum supply - demand and a 16.9 - ton surplus in palladium supply - demand [3]. - Long - term bullish view on platinum, with expected price ranges of 1400 - 2400 dollars/ounce for WMEX platinum and 370 - 630 yuan/gram for GFEX platinum. Short - term bullish view on palladium, with expected price ranges of 100 - 2000 dollars/ounce for WMEX palladium and 280 - 520 yuan/gram for GFEX palladium [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 15, 2025, platinum and palladium prices rose significantly. The platinum main - contract increased by 7.0% to 482.4 yuan/gram, and the palladium main - contract increased by 5.82% to 411.8 yuan/gram [2]. - The reasons were the market's anticipation of future interest - rate cuts due to the potential impairment of the Fed's independence and the tightening of the spot market supply. As the nomination of the new Fed chair approached, the market traded on the risk of the Fed's independence. Trump's statement about Kevin Warsh as a potential candidate and the expected weak non - farm data increased the interest - rate cut expectations, driving up precious - metal prices. Also, the platinum spot market tightened, with the 1 - month lease rate rising to 14.12% as of December 12 [2]. Fundamental Situation Supply - In 2026, with the rise in platinum prices and profit recovery, major producers will maintain stable production, but overall output will be limited due to few new project launches. Global platinum mine and refined production are expected to rise 2.8% and 4.8% to 173.0 tons and 228.2 tons respectively. Global palladium mine and refined production are expected to rise 0.3% and 2.2% to 108.9 tons and 299.4 tons respectively. Short - term supply risks from extreme weather, labor disputes, and power shortages should be watched [3]. Demand - In 2026, the global economic recovery will drive the industrial demand for platinum to continue to pick up. Jewelry demand will also show an upward trend, offsetting the decline in automotive catalyst demand. Platinum price fluctuations and the launch of domestic futures may stimulate global platinum investment. Global platinum demand is expected to grow 0.7% to 266.1 tons. Palladium demand will face significant downward pressure, with an expected decline of 1.7% to 282.4 tons [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2026, there will be a 37.9 - ton gap in global platinum supply - demand and a 16.9 - ton surplus in global palladium supply - demand [3]. Summary and Strategy Platinum - The impairment of the Fed's independence and the expectation of liquidity easing drive up platinum prices. In the long - term, due to high supply concentration, stable demand growth in industrial and investment sectors, and the "interest - rate cut + soft landing" combination, a long - term bullish view is maintained. The expected price range for WMEX platinum is 1400 - 2400 dollars/ounce, and for GFEX platinum is 370 - 630 yuan/gram. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider a long - platinum and short - palladium strategy when the platinum - palladium spread is low [4]. Palladium - The Russian geopolitical issue affects palladium supply. The US investigation into Russian unforged palladium imports has led to a temporary supply shortage in other regions. Palladium demand has significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term shortage makes the price firm. With the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, the palladium price has a certain bottom support. The expected price range for WMEX palladium is 100 - 2000 dollars/ounce, and for GFEX palladium is 280 - 520 yuan/gram. Short - term low - buying is also recommended [4].