现货提涨

Search documents
煤焦周度报告:煤矿供应端扰动持续,盘面回调后仍难跌-20250818
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 07:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The terminal demand shows signs of weakening, and the procurement rhythm of the downstream of coking coal and coke has slowed down. However, the hot metal production remains at a high level, maintaining the rigid demand. Coupled with the reduction disturbances on the supply side of both coking coal and coke, the futures prices are still in a state where they are prone to rise and difficult to fall after a correction, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken. For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and maintain the reverse spread of coking coal September - January contracts [4][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The futures price first rose and then fell last week. It is still difficult to decline in the short term, but the upward momentum is weakening. The sixth round of spot price increase has been implemented. Coke 01 contract fell 0.25% to 1729.5 as of Friday's close. Freight rates were stable with a slight increase [7][9][17]. 3.1.2 Supply - The profitability of coking enterprises improved slightly, and the supply of independent coking enterprises increased slightly. As of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 65.38 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 86.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 46.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 tons [23][25][30]. 3.1.3 Demand - The hot metal production remained at a high level, providing strong rigid demand support. Some steel mills with low inventory were still urging delivery, and the inventory of coking enterprises continued to decrease. However, the speculative sentiment was average, the export profit declined slightly, and the improvement in the daily trading volume of building materials spot was not sustainable. As of August 15, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 240.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons; the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6 percentage points [31][33][37]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Inventories decreased across all sectors, and the total inventory declined. As of August 15, the total coke inventory decreased by 19.74 tons week - on - week to 887.42 tons. Among them, the port inventory decreased by 3.04 tons week - on - week to 215.11 tons; the inventory of the full - sample of independent coking enterprises decreased by 7.22 tons week - on - week to 62.51 tons; the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased by 9.48 tons week - on - week to 609.80 tons [38][40][43]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises improved slightly, while the futures profit of coke continued to decline. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking enterprises was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan. The futures profit of coke 01 decreased by 8.4 yuan/ton week - on - week to 130.5 yuan/ton [48][50]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 01 converged, and the 1 - 5 spread continued to weaken. The basis of coke 01 increased by 58.3 week - on - week to - 148.16, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 19 week - on - week to - 102 [52][54]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The futures price first rose and then fell last week. It is still difficult to decline in the short term, but the upward momentum is weakening. The spot price showed a mixed trend. Coking coal 01 contract rose 0.24% to 1230 as of Friday's close [57][59][60]. 3.2.2 Supply - The supply from production areas was still restricted, the output of coal washing plants increased slightly, the number of customs - cleared vehicles of Mongolian coal rebounded, and the import of coking coal from January to June decreased year - on - year. As of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 percentage points; the daily average output of clean coal was 26.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36 tons. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 52.9 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 7.26% [63][68][71]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The downstream inventory decreased, the upstream inventory increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. As of August 15, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 14.82 tons week - on - week to 2592.87 tons. Among them, the inventory of mining enterprises increased by 12.01 tons week - on - week to 257.67 tons; the port inventory decreased by 21.85 tons week - on - week to 255.49 tons; the inventory of clean coal in coal washing plants increased by 8.92 tons week - on - week to 297.03 tons; the inventory of the full - sample of independent coking enterprises decreased by 11.04 tons week - on - week to 976.88 tons; the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased by 2.86 tons week - on - week to 805.8 tons [72][74][77]. 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 01 maintained a large premium, the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened. The basis of coking coal 01 decreased by 3 week - on - week to - 235. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 week - on - week to - 149.5, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 17 week - on - week to - 56 [100][102].