1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated upward. The spot import window for refined copper in China opened, but import profits significantly narrowed. Macro factors included Powell's dovish statement and news of potential easing of the Middle - East conflict between the US and Iran. US job vacancies decreased, and the euro - zone inflation rate rose. In China, the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs increased, and the central bank planned to strengthen monetary policy. LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories decreased, and domestic downstream restocking led to a rapid decline in social inventories. Short - term, the market is optimistic about the conflict - easing signal, but caution is still needed. It is recommended to operate within a range and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on the performance of copper prices in the 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The domestic alumina factory inventory is at a three - month high, and with imported alumina arriving and new capacity in Guangxi coming online, the inventory is accumulating again. The high premium in the futures market has accelerated warehouse receipt registration, pressuring alumina. Attacks on two large aluminum plants in the Middle East are expected to drive up overseas aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation has shown signs of easing, and a de - stocking inflection point may be seen in April. In the short term, due to the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and unfulfilled domestic demand, the pattern of weak domestic and strong international prices is difficult to reverse quickly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell by 0.75%, while Shanghai nickel rose by 0.13%. LME nickel inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased. Under the influence of tight nickel ore supply and rising freight, nickel ore prices are high, and nickel - iron prices and MHP discount coefficients are strengthening. However, primary nickel inventory is under pressure. With the tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quota, there are short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics, market sentiment, and the potential impact of the July quota replenishment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increase, influenced by macro factors, inventory decline, and strong domestic demand. Short - term operation suggestions are given [1]. - **Aluminum**: Different trends in alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy. Inventory accumulation and geopolitical factors affect the market [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Opposite price trends in LME and Shanghai nickel. Cost - side factors and inventory pressure co - exist [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various copper products, inventory decreases in multiple exchanges, and changes in import - related indicators [1][4]. - **Lead**: Price changes in lead products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [4]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in aluminum products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [5]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in nickel products, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [3][5]. - **Zinc**: Price changes, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [7]. - **Tin**: Price changes, inventory changes, and import - related indicators [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][18][20]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][25][27]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][31][33]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][37][40]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the smelting profit - related trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, and stainless steel from 2019 - 2026 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research [48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell. The import window for domestic refined copper spot opened, but the import profit margin significantly narrowed. Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance led the market to bet on a possible interest - rate cut this year. Geopolitical factors, such as the US - Iran conflict, remained a focus. Domestic downstream restocking was significant, driving the rapid reduction of social inventories. Short - term, it is recommended to operate within a range and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on copper prices in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The domestic alumina plant inventory was at a three - month high, and the inventory was turning to a cumulative trend. The high premium on the futures market accelerated the registration of warehouse receipts, pressuring alumina. Attacks on two large aluminum plants in the Middle East were expected to drive up overseas aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation situation showed signs of significant improvement, and a de - stocking inflection point was expected in April. In the short term, the influence of Middle - East geopolitics was dominant, and the pattern of weak Shanghai and strong London was difficult to quickly converge [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Under the dual influence of tight nickel ore supply and rising freight rates, nickel ore prices continued to strengthen, and the weekly nickel - iron quotes and transaction prices both increased. However, the primary nickel market showed great pressure. Due to the tightening of Indonesia's nickel ore quotas, there were short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics and market sentiment, as well as the expected additional quotas in July and the pressure from primary nickel inventory [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macroscopically, Powell's dovish remarks led to market expectations of an interest - rate cut. Geopolitically, the US - Iran conflict situation was complex. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased by 2350 tons to 362,600 tons, Comex copper inventory decreased by 723 tons to 533,540 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 6105 tons to 230,971 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts decreased by 303 tons to 13,055 tons. Domestic downstream restocking was significant, indicating strong domestic demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina futures closed at 2900 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,745 yuan/ton, up 0.9%. Aluminum alloy closed at 23,585 yuan/ton, up 0.3%. The SMM alumina price rebounded to 2788 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot discount was 90 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina plant inventory was high, and the inventory was accumulating. Attacks on Middle - East aluminum plants were expected to boost overseas aluminum prices, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation situation was improving [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.64% to 17,325 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.23% to 136,220 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained at 281,574 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 104 tons to 57,173 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium decreased by 150 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton. Due to tight supply and rising costs, there were short - term long - trading opportunities, but attention should be paid to inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 95,175 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 200 yuan/ton to 85,600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 574 yuan/ton to 3728 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2350 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 6105 tons, and the total social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 43,000 tons to 486,000 tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained at 16,400 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 75 tons to 283,000 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 404 tons to 52,867 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 8531 tons to 57,579 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased by 690 yuan/ton and 710 yuan/ton respectively. The Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2200 tons to 418,675 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4255 tons to 412,452 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 24,000 tons to 1.373 million tons, while the alumina social inventory decreased by 38,000 tons to 320,000 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1300 yuan/ton to 140,250 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged at 281,574 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 104 tons to 57,173 tons, and the total social nickel inventory increased by 1359 tons to 89,808 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.7% to 23,420 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 115,275 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 400 tons to 214,000 tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 2.5% to 364,570 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 55 tons to 8665 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 1642 tons to 8400 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [14][20][21]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [22][24][26]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [28][30][32]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [34][36][39]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [40][42][44]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **展大鹏**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily and Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [47]. - **王珩**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He is the 18th Best Green Finance New Materials Futures Analyst from Futures Daily and Securities Times and an outstanding new analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 [47]. - **朱希**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She is the 18th Best Green Finance New Materials Futures Analyst from Futures Daily and Securities Times [48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PVC: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation in the Middle East, which affects the prices of oil and chemical products [2][3][5] - Different chemical products have different supply - demand situations, and their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated below the 5 - day moving average. The circulation volume in the northern mainstream propylene market increased temporarily, and downstream enterprises' resistance to receiving goods remained unchanged, with a cautious trading atmosphere [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures showed a relatively strong consolidation. For polyethylene, the cost was supported by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the supply side provided support. The demand side was in the spring plowing season, but the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited. For polypropylene, the upstream refineries' ex - factory prices remained high, the middlemen actively sold goods, but the high - price transaction pressure was prominent, and the downstream's enthusiasm and willingness to start work were weak [2] Polyester - Affected by the situation between the US and Iran, oil prices were strong, and PX and PTA prices fluctuated. The overall single - side trend was dominated by energy and closely related to the Middle East situation. PTA was dragged down by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [3] - Ethylene glycol's load decreased slightly, the port inventory increased, and the downstream recovery was slow. There was an expectation of tight supply due to the un - recovered external supply of Middle East energy chemical products [3] - Short fiber's load increased weekly, the downstream weaving's load increase slowed down, and new orders were not negotiated smoothly. The market was mainly affected by the Middle East situation and followed the raw material fluctuations [3] - Bottle chip's efficiency was good, the load increased significantly last week, the price was under pressure, and the monthly spread continued to weaken. The load decreased slightly in the new period [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The pure benzene futures contract rose significantly. The domestic pure benzene's starting load decreased, downstream consumption increased, and the port inventory continued to decrease. The import volume was expected to decrease, and the East China port was expected to continue destocking [5] - The styrene futures contract rose significantly. The sharp rise in the pure benzene price provided strong support from the cost side. The production of styrene might increase slightly, the inventory might continue to decline, and the demand side was expected to weaken slowly [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures rose strongly. The import volume decreased, the MTO start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased, and the East China port continued to destock. The domestic methanol plant's start - up increased, the profit of inland olefin enterprises continued to rise, and the downstream plant's start - up load increased. The supply - demand situation was expected to be strong [6] - The urea futures continued to consolidate at a high level. The domestic output decreased slightly, the agricultural fertilizer demand declined, the start - up of industrial compound fertilizer and melamine plants increased, and the urea production enterprises continued to destock. The urea market was expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The overall supply increased slightly, the downstream procurement was poor, the inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased seasonally but was still at a relatively low level compared with history. The export was expected to improve from March to April [7] - Caustic soda fluctuated weakly. The liquid caustic soda inventory increased, the chlor - alkali profit continued to rise, the industry's capacity utilization rate increased, the high - strength caustic soda had good support from export orders, and the downstream alumina production was stable, but the downstream traders' enthusiasm for purchasing decreased [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fluctuated. The industry inventory increased, the maintenance increased this week, the start - up and weekly production decreased, the rigid demand for float glass was stable, the photovoltaic glass had a serious oversupply, and there was a trend of cold repair and production reduction, which was expected to drag down the demand for soda ash [8] - Glass fluctuated. The industry continued to destock, but the intensity slowed down, the inventory pressure in the middle and upper reaches was large, and the downstream was mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The production capacity fluctuated slightly, and the glass futures price was expected to fluctuate widely within a range [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but purchases remain cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the TC is expected to continue rising. - The pressure on the supply side is increasing, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the peak consumption season fails to meet expectations, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals. Attention should be paid to the impact of overseas inventories [5] Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$20.74 per ton. - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton. - SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,920 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan/ton. - Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -85 yuan/ton [2] Futures Market - On March 26, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,010 yuan/ton and closed at 23,070 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,062 lots, and the open interest was 103,163 lots. The highest price during the day was 23,105 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,865 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 249,500 tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons from the previous period. - As of March 26, 2026, the LME zinc inventory was 115,650 tons, a decrease of 825 tons from the previous trading day [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated strongly. The import window for domestic refined copper remained open, but import profits declined. US import prices increased, indicating pressure spreading from energy to broader commodities. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran persisted, and inventory changes varied in different markets. After the copper price decline, downstream replenishment willingness increased. The copper price is expected to enter a shock bottom - seeking stage with support below and lack of upward drive. It is recommended to shift from a cautious short - bias strategy to range - bound operations and gradually build long positions at key support levels, paying attention to the performance of copper prices in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Overseas raw material cost support weakened, and with domestic production resumption and a large amount of imported alumina arriving, inventory pressure increased. The market's core contradiction shifted from high overseas geopolitical premiums to the weak reality of domestic inventory accumulation and slow demand recovery, as well as the logic of the upward repair of the copper - aluminum ratio. If there are no unexpected geopolitical disturbances, the aluminum price will be mainly adjusted weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the approaching time of the de - stocking inflection point and new geopolitical variables [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices continued to strengthen, but the primary nickel market showed significant pressure. On the demand side, stainless - steel inventory decreased, and the output of ternary materials was expected to increase. Due to the tightening of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, there were short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitical and market sentiment, as well as the expected quota supplement in July and the large inventory pressure of primary nickel [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US import price of copper increased, with a 1.3% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, and the pressure spread to broader commodities. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran were still volatile. LME inventory increased by 900 tons, Comex inventory increased by 681 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 10,599 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts decreased by 503 tons. After the price decline, downstream replenishment willingness increased. The copper price is expected to enter a shock bottom - seeking stage, and the strategy is to shift to range - bound operations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of SMM alumina rebounded, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed. Overseas raw material cost support weakened, and inventory pressure increased. The market's core contradiction shifted, and the short - term aluminum price is expected to be adjusted weakly [2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 2.15% and Shanghai nickel rose 1.33%. LME inventory decreased by 432 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons. Nickel ore prices strengthened, but the primary nickel market had pressure. Stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1.32% week - on - week, and the output of ternary materials in March was expected to increase by 19% month - on - month. There are short - term trading opportunities to go long based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to geopolitical and inventory factors [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 1,630 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 500 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 10,599 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the inventory of SHFE decreased by 9,939 tons week - on - week [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased, and the inventory of SHFE increased by 35,619 tons week - on - week. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 2,000 tons, and the social inventory of alumina increased by 40,000 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons, and the social inventory increased by 959 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.2%, and the social inventory decreased by 9,500 tons week - on - week [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 1.9%, and the inventory of SHFE decreased by 2,472 tons week - on - week [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts 1 - 6 show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts 7 - 12 show the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts 13 - 18 show the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts 19 - 24 show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts 25 - 30 show the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [36][38][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts 31 - 36 show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless - steel smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [42][44][46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, with potential for price increases due to limited supply and incremental demand, despite short - term downward pressure from inventory and geopolitical factors [1] - Aluminum is expected to perform relatively strongly in the metal sector due to supply damage and high energy dependence, despite overall pressure on non - ferrous metals [1] - Zinc has weak short - term support under the background of recession expectations, but long - term supply may be tight [4] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, influenced by bearish fundamentals and bullish supply - side policy interventions [6] - Stainless steel is expected to follow nickel and trade in a range, with a generally weak fundamental situation [8] - Lead is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, affected by overseas inventory and recycled lead profit [10] - Tin's price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity. It has strong upward potential if liquidity is loose, but large downward space if liquidity tightens [14] - Industrial silicon's price is expected to fluctuate with cost in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term due to over - capacity [17] - Lithium carbonate's future price movement depends on factors such as the speed of warehouse receipt clearance and Zimbabwe's export policy, with the short - term market driven by macro factors [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated downward, mainly due to macro - geopolitical disturbances. The supply of scrap copper is tight, and the substitution demand for electrolytic copper is increasing, which may lead to further depletion of refined copper inventory. The report maintains a bullish view on copper in the medium - term and suggests paying attention to the support at 93,000 - 96,000 [1] Aluminum - Affected by the Iran crisis, some aluminum production capacity in the Middle East is affected. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, and the overall non - ferrous metals are under pressure. However, aluminum is expected to perform strongly in the metal sector due to supply damage and high energy dependence [1] Zinc - The medium - term supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has accumulated above 250,000 tons. The short - term support is weak under the background of recession expectations [4] Nickel - The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with domestic inventory accumulation and slight de - stocking in LME. With supply - side policy interventions, nickel prices are expected to trade in a range [6] Stainless Steel - The supply has decreased slightly, the demand is gradually recovering, and the cost has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly this week. It is expected to follow nickel and trade in a range [8] Lead - The primary lead production is resuming, while the recycled lead production is delayed. The terminal demand is weak, and the social inventory has decreased by nearly 10,000 tons this week. The lead price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated downward, facing great pressure due to liquidity concerns. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is highly affected by global macro - liquidity [14] Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with cost. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [17] Lithium Carbonate - In March, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the market is mainly driven by macro factors. The future price movement depends on factors such as the speed of warehouse receipt clearance and Zimbabwe's export policy [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Spot prices are stable, and futures fluctuate after a rally. The main contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 8,605 yuan/ton. The industry faces over - supply pressure, but cost provides support. It is expected to oscillate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Suggest to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The market is oversupplied, and spot quotes continue to decline. Futures are weakly volatile with a slight rebound. There is still room for prices to fall. It is recommended to wait and see during the price - cut period [3]. Tin - Market risk preference is restored, and tin prices rebound. If the US - Iran conflict shows signs of ending, one can try to layout long positions [4]. Copper - Copper prices are in an adjustment phase, but the medium - long - term supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. Short - term adjustment may provide opportunities for long - term long positions, but the price is still suppressed. Pay attention to the US - Iran conflict and peak - season inventory reduction [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, but the medium - long - term supply - demand fundamentals are stable. The decline space is limited. Pay attention to zinc ore TC, demand marginal changes, and macro guidance [9]. Nickel - The macro - expectation eases slightly but is highly uncertain. The raw material contradiction supports the price, and the inventory is differentiated. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 130,000 - 142,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - sentiment suppression eases, raw materials are tight with strong cost support. Steel mills increase production, and demand recovers. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the range of 14,000 - 14,600 [13]. Alumina - The market inventory reduction slows down, and the oversupply pattern persists. Adopt a short - term short - selling strategy. Wait for a clear supply contraction signal or policy - based production capacity regulation [16]. Aluminum - Short - term prices will fluctuate widely with macro - sentiment and geopolitical news. The main contract is expected to run between 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to inventory inflection points and the impact of the Middle - East situation on supply [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - suppression eases, the fundamentals are resilient but the marginal driving force weakens. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 145,000 - 160,000 [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of scrap aluminum supports the price, but demand improvement is slow. The market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to demand improvement and the impact of the Middle - East situation on primary aluminum prices [18]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on March 24. The basis of oxygen - permeable SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang decreased by 4.80%, 13.33%, and 3.87% respectively [1]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The main contract rose 0.35%. The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the spread between the current month and the first - continued contract increased by 8.33% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional industrial silicon production,开工率, and related product production all decreased. The national industrial silicon production decreased by 26.58%, and the national 开工率 decreased by 21.33% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.72%, Yunnan decreased by 0.90%, and social inventory increased by 0.18% [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 1.73%, and the N - type particle silicon price was stable. The N - type material basis decreased by 13.37% [3]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract rose 0.83%. The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between the current month and the first - continued contract decreased by 51.43% [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly polysilicon production decreased by 23.61%, imports increased by 54.97%, and exports increased by 20.51%. Weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 1.67% [3]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 3.64%, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.47% [3]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.66%, and the SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 13.19% [4]. - **Import - Export Ratio and Profit - Loss**: The import loss decreased by 13.93%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged [4]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 234.29% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: February tin ore imports decreased by 3.69%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 23.91%, and the average 开工率 of SMM refined tin decreased by 23.92% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory decreased by 19.75%, and social inventory decreased by 17.82% [4]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 1.23%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 219.32% [6]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 increased by 60 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: February electrolytic copper production decreased by 3.13%, imports decreased by 24.95%. The 开工率 of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod increased [6]. - **Inventory Change**: Global visible inventory started to decline this week. Domestic social inventory decreased by 14.54%, and SHFE inventory decreased by 5.15% [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.84%, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 36.46 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had small changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 5 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: February refined zinc production decreased by 9.99%, imports decreased by 81.26%, and exports increased by 91.58%. The 开工率 of related industries increased [9]. - **Inventory Change**: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 7.47%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.06% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 1.23%, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 4.58%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 4 dollars/ton [11]. - **Cost of Electrowinning Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.69%, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrowinning nickel increased by 11.34% [11]. - **New - energy Material Price**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95%, and other prices remained stable [11]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 increased by 130 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 7.45%, and imports increased by 84.63%. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.03%, and social inventory increased by 1.10% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel increased. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 38.32% [13]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore and other raw materials remained stable, and the price of 304 scrap stainless steel increased by 2.03% [13]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 15 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 44.07%, and Indonesian production decreased by 10.84%. Imports, exports, and net exports all changed significantly [13]. - **Inventory Change**: 300 - series social inventory decreased by 1.61%, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4.64% [13]. Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.13%, and the premium increased. The price of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [16]. - **Import - Export Ratio and Profit - Loss**: The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 8.5 yuan/ton, and the import loss of alumina decreased by 53.8 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between AL 2604 - 2605 increased by 10 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: February alumina production decreased by 10.63%, and domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased. The 开工率 of related industries had different changes [16]. - **Inventory Change**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.83%, and aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 3.25% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.68%, and the basis decreased by 114.17%. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 2.17% [17]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 increased by 680 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: February lithium carbonate production decreased by 15.13%, and demand decreased by 10.57%. The 开工率 decreased by 14.29% [17]. - **Inventory Change**: Lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 4.76%, and downstream inventory decreased by 5.01% [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable, and the price of Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 decreased by 0.42%. The price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 aluminum decreased by 36.11% [18]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spreads between different contracts had different changes, such as the spread between 2604 - 2605 decreased by 65 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: February recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 41.31%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 30.99%. The 开工率 of related industries decreased [18]. - **Inventory Change**: Recycled aluminum alloy social inventory decreased by 1.79%, and factory - area finished product inventory decreased by 8.11% [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.90%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Supported by strong raw materials, the rebar price oscillated upward, but the fundamentals remained unchanged, and the upward space was limited. It is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated strongly with a daily increase of 0.97%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Benefiting from strong demand and cost support from raw materials, the price rebounded from a low level. However, supply is increasing, and there are concerns about demand. The subsequent trend of high inventory should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated upward with a daily increase of 0.92%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Driven by strong energy and marginal improvement in demand, the ore price remained high. However, the demand growth space was limited, and supply increased steadily. The fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price was not strong. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel performance [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - From January to February 2026, China's export value of construction machinery was 75.081 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%. In January 2026, the import and export trade volume of construction machinery was 5.762 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 17%. In February 2026, the total import and export was 5.31 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 51.6% [7]. - As of the end of February 2026, the inventory of the national passenger vehicle industry was 3.33 million vehicles, a decrease of 240,000 vehicles from the previous month and an increase of 250,000 vehicles compared with February 2025. The inventory of new energy vehicle manufacturers increased from 620,000 in September 2025 to 680,000 in February 2026, and the overall inventory pressure was relatively high [8]. - The US Bank EXIM plans to provide up to $10 billion in financing for the Mesabi Metallics iron ore project. The project is located in the core area of the Mesabi iron ore belt in the United States, with a resource volume of about 1.3 billion tons, mainly magnetite, and the iron grade of the raw ore is about 25% - 30% Fe. It is equipped with a beneficiation and pelletizing capacity of 7 million tons per year, and can produce direct reduction grade (DR-grade) pellets with an iron grade of over 67% [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,220 yuan, 3,210 yuan, and 3,346 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,300 yuan, 3,230 yuan, and 3,327 yuan respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,190 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 80 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,030 yuan [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 793 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 772 yuan, the ocean freight from Australia was 11.77 US dollars, the ocean freight from Brazil was 30.53 US dollars, the SGX swap price (current month) was 106.74 US dollars, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 109.55 US dollars [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,154 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.90%, the highest price was 3,165 yuan, the lowest price was 3,111 yuan, the trading volume was 1,011,355 lots, the volume difference was 287,216 lots, the open interest was 1,351,388 lots, and the position difference was -35,832 lots [12]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,330 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.97%, the highest price was 3,335 yuan, the lowest price was 3,287 yuan, the trading volume was 472,394 lots, the volume difference was 195,880 lots, the open interest was 1,055,371 lots, and the position difference was -42,832 lots [12]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 819.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.92%, the highest price was 826.0 yuan, the lowest price was 812.5 yuan, the trading volume was 263,330 lots, the volume difference was 16,045 lots, the open interest was 441,933 lots, and the position difference was -8,257 lots [12]. Related Charts - There are charts showing the inventory changes of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills, including inventory volume, weekly changes, seasonal patterns, and the opening rate and profitability of steel mills [14][23][31] 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand are both increasing. The weekly output of rebar increased by 80,300 tons, and the inventory is still higher than the same period last year. The demand is improving seasonally, but the high-frequency trading volume is weak, and the subsequent demand growth space is limited. Supported by strong raw materials, the price oscillates upward, but the upward space is limited, and it is expected to continue the oscillatory trend [40]. - Hot-rolled coil: Supply and demand are both rising. The output of hot-rolled coil increased by 49,500 tons week-on-week, and the inventory is still high. The demand is resilient, but there are concerns about demand, especially the export performance is average under the disturbance of the Middle East conflict. The price has rebounded from a low level, but the subsequent trend of high inventory should be viewed with caution [41]. - Iron ore: Supply and demand have changed. The terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded, but the improvement space of demand may be limited. The supply of iron ore is increasing steadily. Driven by strong energy and marginal improvement in demand, the ore price remains high, but the upward driving force is not strong, and it is expected to maintain a high-level oscillatory trend [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Zinc - Zinc supply - demand fundamentals are generally good, but high domestic inventories restrict upward price movement. Short - term prices may oscillate weakly, with the main contract supported at 23,800 - 24,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - level guidance [2]. Copper - In the short term, the inventory - related structural contradictions that previously drove copper prices up have been largely resolved. Prices are under pressure due to reduced market risk appetite and may face a phased adjustment. However, the long - term supply - demand logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments may offer opportunities for long - term long positions. The main contract is expected to find support around 98,000 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel - Overseas macro uncertainties are increasing, and raw material - end contradictions are accumulating, providing support for prices. Demand has slightly improved, but high inventories still pose a constraint. The market is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract running between 134,000 - 145,000 yuan/ton [5]. Stainless Steel - Overseas macro risks are uncertain, raw material supply is tight, providing strong cost support. Steel mills' production schedules are increasing, and demand is gradually recovering. The market will likely see an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract trading in the 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton range [8]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with a strategy of being bearish on rallies. For aluminum, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and prices will oscillate at high levels. The LME's spot tightness and high domestic inventories create a divergence in drivers. In the long run, the global supply - demand balance remains tight, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The short - term main contract for Shanghai aluminum is expected to trade between 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum Alloy - High raw material costs strongly support ADC12 prices, but slow - growing demand and the negative effects of high prices are emerging. The market is expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern, with the main contract trading between 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - In the short term, tin prices are expected to be weak due to the continued escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the impact on market risk sentiment. The long - term bullish logic for tin prices remains, and short - term adjustments may offer long - term long - position opportunities. Attention should be paid to the performance of tin prices at the 350,000 - yuan level [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Geopolitical conflicts increase market uncertainties. The trading momentum of the new - energy sector is weakening. Fundamentally, the market maintains resilience with both supply and demand increasing. The market will likely see wide - range oscillatory adjustments in the short term, with the main contract trading between 148,000 - 162,000 yuan/ton [16]. Industrial Silicon - Rising costs may strongly support the bottom of industrial silicon prices. Currently, supply is growing rapidly, demand is growing slightly, and inventories are accumulating again. Attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection, electricity prices, and cost fluctuations. It is advisable to operate with caution, stay on the sidelines, or build long positions on dips [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is facing oversupply pressure, with prices under continuous downward pressure due to large inventories. The relationship between downstream demand and prices is weak. In the long run, the demand for energy - security guarantees may benefit the development of the photovoltaic industry. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, or consider going long after the market stabilizes while controlling positions and setting stop - losses [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The current price of SMM 0 zinc ingots is 24,080 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 0.95%. The import profit and loss are - 20.66 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 9.99% month - on - month. The galvanizing start - up rate was 53%, an increase of 13.94 percentage points [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The current price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 100,515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 0.15%. The refined - scrap price difference is 475 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 20.18% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% month - on - month. The electrolytic copper rod start - up rate was 72.92%, an increase of 10.45 percentage points [4]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The current price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 141,350 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous value, with an increase of 0.28%. The futures import profit and loss are 945 yuan/ton, down 302 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 24.22% [5]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in the current period was 32,600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month. SHFE inventory was 63,681 tons, an increase of 3.10% week - on - week [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The current price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The current price - futures price difference is 430 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.36% [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.9008 million tons, an increase of 44.07% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 532,100 tons, a decrease of 1.19% week - on - week [8]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The current price of SMM A00 aluminum is 25,120 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 0.55%. The electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss are - 4,222 yuan/ton, down 248.1 yuan/ton from the previous value [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the alumina production was 6.6002 million tons, a decrease of 10.63% month - on - month. The aluminum profile start - up rate was 51.8%, an increase of 16.40 percentage points [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The current price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 25,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 is - 420 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 41.31% month - on - month. The regenerated aluminum alloy start - up rate was 31.34%, a decrease of 22.6 percentage points week - on - week [12]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: The current price of SMM 1 tin is 392,650 yuan/ton, down 6,050 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 1.54%. The import profit and loss are - 13,594.90 yuan/ton, down 5,300.71 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 63.91% [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the tin ore import volume was 17,637 tons, an increase of 16.81% year - on - year. In February, the SMM refined tin production was 15,100 tons, a decrease of 23.91% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The current average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous value, with an increase of 0.63%. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is 6,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,900 yuan/ton from the previous value [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In February, the lithium carbonate production was 83,090 tons, a decrease of 15.13% month - on - month. The lithium carbonate demand was 111,503 tons, a decrease of 10.57% month - on - month [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The current price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) is 525 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 5.41% [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production was 275,700 tons, a decrease of 26.58% month - on - month. The national start - up rate was 38.02%, a decrease of 21.33 percentage points [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The current average price of N - type re - feed polysilicon is 0 yuan/kg, down 46,000 yuan/kg from the previous value, with a decline of 100%. The main futures contract price is 42,040 yuan/ton, down 720 yuan/ton from the previous value, with a decline of 1.68% [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production was 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23.61% month - on - month. The polysilicon inventory was 357,000 tons, an increase of 2.59% week - on - week [20].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of non - ferrous metals is affected by geopolitical factors and the change of risk sentiment, generally maintaining a volatile pattern [13][14]. - The future price of copper is expected to break upward with the recovery of the gold and silver market and the arrival of the consumption peak season [15][17]. - The zinc market is affected by geopolitical disturbances, and the price fluctuates under pressure, continuing the volatile trend [15][17]. - The aluminum industry chain shows a relatively strong and volatile trend, and it is recommended to adopt a cautious and bullish approach [17]. - The tin market is in a state of volatile consolidation, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. - The lead market fluctuates in a range, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy can be adopted [18]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are in a stage of adjustment, and it is advisable to go long on dips [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The situation in Iran dominates the sentiment of the capital market. The rise in oil prices and trade blockades increase inflation expectations, weaken the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The impact depends on the duration of the situation. The performance of aluminum in the non - ferrous sector is relatively prominent, but it is also suppressed this week [13]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The current fundamentals are weak in the short term. The price is mainly driven by macro logic and valuation restoration. It is recommended to go long on dips. The support range is 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [15][17]. - **Zinc**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price fluctuates under pressure. It is recommended to use a strategy of alternating bull and bear spreads. The support range is 23,800 - 24,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 24,800 - 25,000 yuan/ton [15][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It shows a relatively strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or take a bullish approach. Different products in the industry chain have different support and pressure ranges [17]. - **Tin**: In a state of volatile consolidation, it is recommended to wait and see. The support range is 330,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 460,000 - 480,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Lead**: Fluctuates in a range, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy can be adopted. The support range is 16,400 - 16,600 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 17,000 - 17,200 yuan/ton [18]. - **Nickel and Stainless - steel**: In a stage of adjustment, it is advisable to go long on dips. The support and pressure ranges for nickel and stainless - steel are provided respectively [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are presented. For example, the closing price of copper is 100,190 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.85%; the closing price of zinc is 24,420 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.66% [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector is provided, including information on the strength of net long and short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors for each variety [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 100,490 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.80%; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 24,340 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.83% [24]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [26][30][33]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to arbitrage opportunities for each non - ferrous metal are provided, such as the change in the Shanghai - London ratio and the basis spread [63][65][66]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to options for each non - ferrous metal are provided, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and changes in trading volume and open interest [80][82][86].