2026年02月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260226 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶：震荡回落 | 4 | | LLDPE：原油成本支撑强，自身供需格局一般 | 6 | | PP：C3原料表现偏强，PDH检修仍高 | 6 | | 烧碱：近月交割压力大，但成本仍有支撑 | 7 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260226 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 11 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 12 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 14 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 16 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 17 | | LPG：供应收紧，夜盘冲高 | 18 | | 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，现货横盘整理 | 18 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 21 | | 燃料油：夜盘反弹，弱势暂缓 | 22 | | 低硫燃料油：高位回跌，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅收缩 | 22 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡思路对待 | 23 | | 短纤：高位震荡，保持关注地缘波动20260226 | 26 | | 瓶片：高位震荡，保持关注地缘波动20260226 | 26 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周三油价下行，其中WTI 4月合约收盘下跌0.21美元至65.42美元/桶，跌幅0.32%。布伦特4月合约收盘上 涨0.08美元至70.85美元/桶，涨幅0.11%。SC2604以486.5元/桶收盘，下跌3.1元/桶，跌幅0.63%。伊朗外 长阿拉格齐率领伊朗代表团抵达瑞士日内瓦，参加即将于26日举行的伊美第三轮谈判。在阿曼斡旋下， 伊朗与美国第三轮间接谈判将于26日在日内瓦举行。美国近期在中东地区大规模集结兵力。美国总统特 朗普近日承认，他在考虑对伊朗进行"有限军事打击"。EIA周三公布的数据显示，由于炼油厂产能利用 率下降且进口增加，上周美国原油库存增幅创2023年2月以来新大，推动库存增至八个半月来最高水 平。EIA数据显示，截至2月20日当周，美国原油库存增加了1600万桶，远超分析师预期的150万桶增 幅，库存增至逾八个月来最高的4.358亿桶。斯洛伐克总理菲佐表示，乌克兰总统泽连斯基一再推迟恢 复"友谊"管道送油的做法是"敌对行为"。乌克兰已多次更 ...

Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract decreased from 3,935.0 yuan/ton on February 12, 2026, to 3,899.0 yuan/ton on February 13, 2026, a drop of 36.0 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The spot price in East China also declined from 3,605.0 yuan/ton to 3,560.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.0 yuan/ton or 1.25%. The basis (spot minus futures) was -339 yuan/ton, with the negative value deepening, indicating an expanding discount of the spot market relative to the futures [1]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased from 437,707 lots to 430,898 lots, a reduction of 6,809 lots or 1.56%. The trading volume declined from 200,272 lots to 189,398 lots, a decrease of 10,874 lots or 5.43%. Both open interest and trading volume decreased, suggesting a weakening short - term speculative sentiment and an increase in market wait - and - see atmosphere [1]. *** Analysis of Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 65.29%, with the oil - based operating rate at 65.57% and the coal - based operating rate at 58.64%, showing no changes. However, the profits from oil - based, coal - based, and natural - gas - based production all declined significantly. For example, the profit from ethylene - SD oxidation method dropped from - 755.0 yuan/ton to - 950.7 yuan/ton, the coal - based profit decreased from - 50.53 yuan/ton to - 130.13 yuan/ton, and the natural - gas - based profit fell from 350.0 yuan/ton to 280.0 yuan/ton. Despite the profit decline, the operating rate remained unchanged, indicating a rigid supply [1]. - **Demand Side**: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, showing no changes. This indicates that the terminal demand is stable but has not improved. With the high - level stability of polyester and loom loads, the demand side provides limited support and does not drive up prices [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased from 897,000 tons to 935,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons or 4.24%. Although the inventory in Zhangjiagang slightly decreased by 4,000 tons to 450,000 tons, the overall port inventory increased, reflecting an increase in arriving goods or insufficient shipments. The supply - demand pattern remains loose [2]. *** Price Trend Judgment: The price of ethylene glycol is likely to continue to face pressure, with a possible low - level oscillation or further decline. The reasons are as follows: The profits of ethylene glycol production have been compressed, and all types of production methods have seen a decline in profits, which may be due to rising raw material costs or falling product prices. Although there is no direct data on the prices of raw materials such as crude oil and coal, the profit decline implies that costs may have increased or product prices have decreased. The downstream demand remains stable, but the supply is rigid, and the port inventory has increased, putting greater pressure on the market [31][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., suggesting investors to pay attention to position control before the Spring Festival due to potential geopolitical disturbances and market uncertainties [2][9][10]. - Different commodities show different trends, such as some being in a range - bound market, some having upward or downward pressure, and some being affected by factors like supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: A pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The cost end is worried about potential supply risks due to unstable geopolitical situations, and the valuation is upward - revised. The fundamentals are weak in February, but the unilateral price is supported and runs strongly. Investors should manage positions [9]. - **PTA**: The downside space may be limited, and the monthly spread is bearish. Short positions can be taken when the processing fee is above 450. The terminal demand has different situations, and the polyester start - up rate is expected to change. Multiple sets of device maintenance plans boost the monthly spread. Investors should pay attention to the 5100 yuan/ton support level and manage positions [10]. - **MEG**: The inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is still high. The basis and monthly spread are in a reverse - set operation. The ethylene glycol start - up rate remains stable, but the demand side has large - scale shutdowns, resulting in large inventory accumulation pressure in February and difficult inventory digestion after the festival. Investors should manage positions [10]. Rubber - It is in a shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased. The order situation of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire sample enterprises shows different trends [11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a pre - holiday shock operation. The futures market has changes in closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. The spot market prices of some varieties have increased, and the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has increased [14][15]. LLDPE - The internal and external markets are close to a standstill, and the funds are risk - averse, showing a shock market. The raw material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the ethylene monomer link is weak, and the downstream demand has different situations. The supply - side maintenance plan has decreased, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [17][18]. PP - The C3 raw material performs strongly, but the valuation repair is limited. The cost end of crude oil and propane prices continues to be strong, and the demand side has limited support. The PDH profit is at a low level, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [20][21]. Caustic Soda - The cost is rising, and the valuation is being repaired. The previous short - selling logic of caustic soda profit may be challenged. The demand side is weak, and the supply - side reduction and load - reduction expectations are increasing after March. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions in the 03 contract before the Spring Festival and gradually build long positions in the 05 contract at low levels [25]. Pulp - It is in a shock operation. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing before the festival, with few spot quotations and stagnant downstream procurement. The supply - demand fundamentals have no actual changes during the holiday, and the price is expected to end stably. Attention should be paid to the changes in port inventory and the impact of the macro - market on the pulp market [31][32]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream procurement volume decreases, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. The market demand declines, and the overall trading is light [35][36]. Methanol - It is in a shock operation. The spot price shows a regional adjustment situation, and the port inventory has a small increase. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within a limited range. The macro - level is in the process of negotiation between Iran and the United States, and the fundamental driving force is neutral to downward. The upper and lower price limits are affected by factors such as MTO profit and coal - based cost [41][42]. Urea - It is in a pre - holiday shock with support. The support comes from the improvement of spot transactions driven by pre - holiday order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the festival. The fundamental pressure level of the 05 contract is around 1830 yuan/ton, and the support level is around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [45][46]. Styrene - It is in a high - level shock. The absolute price is in a high - level shock with the withdrawal of funds. The styrene profit is at a high level in recent years, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival and the opportunity of EB profit contraction and PX - EB [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with stable device operation and high supply. The downstream demand procurement is basically completed before the holiday, and the trading is light. The price may remain weakly stable in the short term [50]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes. The industrial chain start - up rate and shipping volume have different trends [52]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is stable, and the basis converges. The futures market has price changes, and the spot market prices of some varieties have changes [52]. PVC - It is in a weakly shock operation. The domestic spot market trading is dull, and the supply - demand is weak. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and it is expected to be weakly shocked before the festival. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market may still trade delivery pressure and high forward premium [60][61]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen, and it may turn to a relatively strong trend in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market is still at a low level [64]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a shock market. The futures market has price and position changes. The spot market freight rate is stable before the festival. Geopolitical factors and shipping company policies have an impact on the market. Different contracts have different investment strategies [66][74][75]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The futures price fluctuates upward, the spot price is stable, and the downstream is mostly on holiday [77][78]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term shock market, and investors are advised to reduce long positions when the price is high. The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate upward, and the factory price is partially adjusted upward. The market trading atmosphere is average [77][78]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see before the festival. The spot market price is stable, the scale paper mills are stably producing, some small and medium - sized paper mills are shut down, and the dealer's order - receiving situation is not good [80][81]. Pure Benzene - It is in a strong shock. The futures price has increased, the spot price has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices and the price trend [84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな女' [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな☆' and 'ななな' [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined, represented by 'ななな' [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined, represented by '文文文' [1] - Zinc: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な☆☆' [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined, represented by '立☆☆' [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な女女' [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined, represented by 'ななな' [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな☆' [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な女女' [1] 2. Core Views - The copper market continues to have a narrow - range shock, and it is advisable to continue the reverse arbitrage idea. The post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure the price and then the price may rise again based on the demand expectations [2]. - The aluminum market has a weak fundamental situation, with inventory performance significantly weaker than in previous years. There is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price fluctuations but has weak follow - up ability. The alumina market has a reduced operating capacity and production, but the oversupply prospect remains unchanged [3]. - The zinc market has a short - term structural contradiction, with the external market being strong and the export window about to open, which eases the downward pressure on Shanghai zinc. The market is waiting for the guidance of non - farm data [4]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market has a rebound in nickel prices but weak trading. The social inventory continues to increase, and the market is mainly driven by policy sentiment [7]. - The tin market continues to rebound with the upper resistance at the MA20 moving average. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday supply and consumption trends [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a rebound but weak trading. The inventory structure has changed, and there is a high inventory in the mid - stream. The short - term uncertainty is high [9]. - The industrial silicon market price weakens after breaking through 8400 yuan/ton. The supply is in a phased contraction, and the demand from downstream industries is expected to decline. The price is expected to continue a weak trend [10]. - The polysilicon market has a slight increase in futures prices with narrowed fluctuations. The production decreases, and the market is expected to have a slight de - stocking. The price is expected to continue an oscillating trend [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper has had a narrow - range shock for three consecutive trading days, and the 0 - 1 month spread has expanded to 440 yuan. It is recommended to follow the reverse arbitrage idea. The post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure the price and then it may rise again based on demand expectations [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum oscillates. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 190 yuan, - 290 yuan, and - 40 yuan respectively. The aluminum bar processing fee is less than 100 yuan. The inventory is significantly weaker than in previous years, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price but has weak follow - up ability. The domestic alumina operating capacity drops to around 9400 yuan, with a phased production decline, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3] Zinc - The SMM zinc average price is 24460 yuan/ton, with a real - time premium of 20 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The spot trading is light. There is a short - term structural contradiction, the external market is strong, and the zinc ingot export window is about to open, which eases the downward pressure on Shanghai zinc. The market is waiting for the guidance of non - farm data [4] Aluminum - The aluminum price is at a low level. The production cuts of primary and recycled aluminum smelters increase, and most downstream enterprises are on holiday. The spot market shows a situation of double - decline in supply and demand. The SMM1 aluminum average price is 16575 yuan/ton, and the discount to the near - month contract narrows to 35 yuan/ton. The overseas aluminum ingots are in surplus, and the import window remains open. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a low level within the price range of 16,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel rebounds, but the market trading is light. The news about the Indonesian quota causes speculation. The social inventory of nickel and stainless steel continues to increase. The market confidence declines, and the transaction is light. The pure nickel inventory increases by 3000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increases by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons. The market is in a pre - festival state, waiting for a clear situation [7] Tin - The Shanghai tin continues to rebound, with the upper resistance at the MA20 moving average. The overseas LME tin inventory continues to increase, and the LME spot discount is 159 US dollars. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday supply trend and peak - season consumption rhythm [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate rebounds, but the market trading is light. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase. The total market inventory decreases by 2000 tons to 105,000 tons. The short - term uncertainty is high [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price weakens after breaking through 8400 yuan/ton. The supply has a phased contraction, but there is a复产 expectation after the festival. The downstream polysilicon is expected to reduce production by more than 20,000 tons, and the organic silicon may reduce the demand for industrial silicon by about 90,000 tons if the emission reduction target is implemented. The December export volume is 59,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8%. The social inventory rises to 562,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8000 tons. The price is expected to continue a weak trend [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rise slightly, and the market fluctuations narrow. The industry's fully - cost - inclusive tax for silicon materials is about 54,125 yuan/ton. The February production decreases by more than 20% month - on - month, and the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease by 3%. The market is expected to have a slight de - stocking. The latest silicon material manufacturer inventory is 341,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons. The price is expected to continue an oscillating trend [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, the supply gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a considerable number of negative factors. There is still a probability of short - term fluctuations due to overseas geopolitics. The previous short positions should be taken profit, and short - term waiting and watching is recommended [5]. - For urea, the import window has been opened due to the current situation of internal and external price differences, and combined with the expected production start - up recovery at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectation of urea is coming, so short positions are recommended [8]. - For rubber, near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce the risk level and focus on risk prevention. Short - term trading according to the disk, setting stop - losses, and quick in - and - out operations are suggested. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended not to hold single - side positions, and hedge by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [13]. - For PVC, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a neutral to low level. The supply reduction is small, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the demand is under pressure. The export tax rebate cancellation has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. In general, the domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the follow - up changes in production capacity and start - up should be concerned [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The cost - side pure benzene production starts to rebound from a low level, and the supply is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene continues to accumulate. It is recommended to gradually take profit as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and the PE valuation still has downward space. The coal - based inventory has been significantly reduced, which supports the price. In the off - season, the raw material inventory of agricultural films may reach the peak, and the overall start - up rate fluctuates downward [23]. - For polypropylene, the EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply surplus may ease. There is no production capacity investment plan in the first half of 2026, and the pressure is relieved. The downstream start - up rate fluctuates seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to production investment mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low levels [26]. - For PX, the PX load remains at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance operations. It is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - process profit is also high. The supply - demand structure of PX and downstream PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long following the crude oil price [29]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high - level maintenance in the short - term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is limited by the off - season and the load gradually decreases. PTA enters the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. The PTA processing fee is expected to remain stable at a high level, and there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, look for opportunities to go long at low levels [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large due to the off - season of downstream demand. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high start - up. The current valuation is moderately low year - on - year. There is a risk of rebound due to the tense situation in Iran and the rebound of coal prices [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 10.10 yuan/barrel, a 2.17% increase, at 476.10 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 60.00 yuan/ton, a 2.15% increase, at 2845.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 53.00 yuan/ton, a 1.63% increase, at 3306.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 1.43 million barrels to 199.82 million barrels, a 0.71% decrease; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.95 million barrels to 97.01 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.93 million barrels to 98.87 million barrels, a 2.00% increase; the total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.89 million barrels to 195.88 million barrels, a 2.02% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices changed as follows: Jiangsu changed by 2 yuan/ton, Lunan by 20 yuan/ton, Henan by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 45 yuan/ton. The main futures contract remained unchanged at 2241 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 6 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices changed as follows: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 30 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 30 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 1785 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market fluctuated and consolidated following the commodity market. The bulls believed in an increase due to macro - bullish expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears thought the market would decline due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than last week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than last week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 tons, a 0.9 - ton increase and a 0.7% increase. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 tons to 59.12 tons, an 1.88% increase. In the spot market, the Thai standard mixed rubber was 15200 (+150) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1945 (+20) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1945 (+20) US dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 10100 (0) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 12200 (- 100) yuan [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract decreased by 21 yuan to 4971 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4730 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 241 (- 9) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (0) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide in Wuhai was quoted at 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 588 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method was 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease. The factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 tons (+2.1) [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 5995 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene active contract closed at 6034 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease; the pure benzene basis was - 39 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan decrease. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7700 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan decrease; the styrene active contract closed at 7473 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan increase; the basis was 227 yuan/ton, a 110 - yuan decrease; the BZN spread was 166.12 yuan/ton, a 1.75 - yuan increase; the EB non - integrated device profit was - 134.05 yuan/ton, a 79.75 - yuan increase; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase; the Jiangsu port inventory was 10.86 tons, a 0.80 - ton increase. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase; the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6775 yuan/ton, a 54 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 100 yuan/ton, a 54 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 tons, a 5.67 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.32 tons, a 0.23 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan increase. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 13 yuan/ton, an 83 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 tons, a 1.49 - ton increase, the trader inventory was 18.32 tons, a 0.02 - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a 0.03 - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 87 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 19 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan increase [24][25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 28 yuan to 7220 yuan, PX CFR increased by 9 US dollars to 909 US dollars. The basis was - 31 yuan (+47), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 88 yuan (+10). The PX load in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase; the Asian load was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of devices, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing the load, and Fujian United Petrochemical's load fluctuated. The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of devices, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, Dushan Energy was under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton device in Taiwan was under maintenance. In January, South Korea exported 40.8 tons of PX to China, a 2.5 - ton decrease year - on - year. In December, the inventory was 465 tons, a 19 - ton increase month - on - month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 302 US dollars (+7), South Korea's PX - MX was 139 US dollars (- 2), and the naphtha crack spread was 91 US dollars (- 12) [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 38 yuan to 5230 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 25 yuan to 5140 yuan. The basis was - 75 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 28 yuan (+20). The PTA load was 77.6%, a 1% increase. In terms of devices, Sichuan Energy Investment was restarting, Dushan Energy was under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton device in Taiwan was under maintenance. The downstream load was 78.2%, a 6% decrease. In terms of devices, Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament was restarting, and 475,000 - ton chemical fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong were under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom load decreased by 24% to 9%. On January 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.6 tons, a 3.3 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 18 yuan to 366 yuan, and the disk processing fee increased by 26 yuan to 436 yuan [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 6 yuan to 3733 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 12 yuan to 3623 yuan. The basis was - 110 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 108 yuan (+2). The ethylene glycol load was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, among which the syngas - based production was 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based load was 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. In terms of syngas - based devices, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short - term, Guanghui was shut down and the restart was to be determined, and Sinochem had a load reduction due to an accident. In terms of petrochemical, Zhongke Refining and Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou were restarting. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian was shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 was restarting. The downstream load was 78.2%, a 6% decrease. In terms of devices, Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament was restarting, and 475,000 - ton chemical fiber devices such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong were under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom load decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 18.1 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure was 1.5 tons on February 9. The port inventory was 93.5 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based profit was - 1252 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 24 yuan. The cost - side ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price decreased to 580 yuan [33].

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is weak, with expectations for steel prices to decline as demand remains subdued and winter storage is nearly complete [4][6][17] - Nationally, 30 provinces have set GDP growth targets for 2026, with several major economic provinces aiming for over 5% growth [4][15] - Excavator sales in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, indicating strong demand in the construction sector [4][15] Group 2 - The average capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 48.12%, a decrease of 7.59 percentage points week-on-week, but an increase of 44.85 percentage points year-on-year [5][16] - Total inventory of five major steel products increased by 4.6% week-on-week to 13.38 million tons, while weekly consumption decreased by 5.1% [5][16] - Rebar production decreased by 81,500 tons week-on-week to 1.9168 million tons, with total inventory rising by 440,400 tons to 5.1957 million tons [6][17] Group 3 - Hot-rolled steel production slightly decreased by 500 tons to 3.0916 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 36,200 tons [7][18] - The iron ore transaction volume on February 9 was 638,000 tons, a decrease of 19.4% week-on-week, reflecting a slowdown in market activity as the Spring Festival approaches [4][15] - The production of iron alloys remains under pressure, with prices fluctuating and demand from steel mills not meeting expectations [9][20]

2026年02月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市，月差偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：区间震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260209 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡承压 | 6 | | LLDPE：进口窗口缩窄，节前偏震荡市 | 8 | | PP：估值修复有限，出口周签单下滑 | 9 | | 烧碱：成本抬升，估值低位 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260209 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：高位震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 19 | | LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 | 20 | | 丙烯：供需维持偏紧，上行驱动转弱 | 20 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 燃料油：窄幅调整，短期弱势暂缓 | 24 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续下探 | 24 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 25 | | 短纤：短期震荡市2026 ...

能源化工日报 2026-02-09 2026/02/09 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 马桂炎（联系人） 聚酯分析师 从业资格号：F03136381 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 严梓桑（联系人） 油品分析师 从业资格号：F03149203 15805136842 我们认为当前甲醇已经计价相当部分的利空因子，海外地缘短期仍有波动概率，前期布空止盈， 短期观望为主。 yanzs@wkqh.cn 2026/02/09 尿素 【行情资讯】 区域现货涨跌：山东变动 10 元/吨，河南变动 0 元/吨，河北变动 0 元/吨，湖北变动 0 元/吨， 江苏变动 10 元/吨，山西变动 0 元/吨，东北变动 0 元/吨，总体基差报-16 元/吨。 主力期货涨跌：主力合约变动-2 元/吨，报 1776 元/吨。 【策略观点】 我 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, before and after the Spring Festival, the non - ferrous metal market showed a differentiated pattern. Macro factors dominated the price direction of non - ferrous metals, while the differences in the fundamentals of each variety led to the differentiation of inventory and consumption performance. The post - festival resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Copper - **Pricing and Supply - side Situation**: The pricing of copper is more inclined to the framework of "macro - led direction, supply rigidity provides bottom support". The short - term upward movement of copper prices is often driven by macro factors, and the mid - term support comes from the "rigidity" of the supply side. In January 2026, the copper mine supply was tight, and the spot TC continued to decline, reaching a record low of - 49.84 US dollars per dry ton at the end of the month [12]. - **Refining and Supply**: Near the Spring Festival, the refined copper smelting showed the characteristics of tight raw materials, stable production, and limited impact of maintenance. Although the spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, the supply of recycled copper and waste anode plates was loose, supporting the high - level production of smelters. The estimated impact of smelter maintenance on refined copper production in January was about 20,000 tons. It is expected that the Yangshan copper premium will fluctuate within a narrow range, and the net import volume of refined copper will remain relatively stable [16]. - **Downstream Processing**: During the approach of the Spring Festival, the copper processing industry showed a co - existence of seasonal stocking demand and the inhibitory effect of high prices. The starting rate of refined copper rods recovered from 47.82% at the beginning of the month to 69.54% at the end of the month. The finished product inventory increased by 3.91% month - on - month, indicating that the actual digestion ability of the terminal market was still insufficient. The starting rate of copper cables increased slightly at the end of the year, with State Grid orders as the core support. The enameled wire sector was relatively strong, with the starting rate maintained at 79% - 83% [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the copper social inventory had reached 335,800 tons, and the pre - festival inventory was at a relatively high level. If the subsequent arrival increases, the downstream resumption of work is slow, or the spot maintains a discount pattern, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [18][19]. Lead - **Supply - side Situation**: Before the Spring Festival, the lead concentrate market was in a pattern of tight supply and rising costs. The processing fees were at a low level, and the production cost of smelting enterprises increased. In February, the supply and demand of the lead concentrate industry would enter a weak stage. After the festival, the supply - tight pattern of the lead concentrate market would intensify, and the processing fees would likely continue to run at a low level [20][22]. - **Consumption - side Situation**: The lead market showed the characteristic of "even weaker in the off - season". The consumer market of electric bicycle batteries was weak, and the inventory of dealers was high. The export orders of automobile batteries decreased. The weekly starting rate of lead - battery enterprises dropped to about 69% and continued to decline. After the festival, the resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable, and the actual restocking demand of the downstream would be gradually released after the Lantern Festival [22][23]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the lead ingot social inventory had reached 40,400 tons, and the inventory accumulation started earlier than in previous years. If the subsequent lead concentrate arrival increases, the resumption of work of lead - battery enterprises after the festival is slow, or the spot discount pattern continues, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [28][29]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Situation**: After New Year's Day, the price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract rose by 16%, but the price transmission was blocked, and the downstream consumption was severely suppressed. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened rapidly, and the aluminum rod entered a negative processing fee. The production of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets and foils decreased significantly [30][32]. - **Inventory Situation**: From December 18, 2025, to early February, the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots had reached 239,000 tons. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation this year may reach 1.4 million tons, and if the aluminum price remains high, the inventory accumulation may reach 1.5 million tons [40]. Zinc - **Price and Market Performance**: After New Year's Day, the zinc ingot price rose by 15%. Although it was in the consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises were less sensitive to the absolute price of zinc, and the rigid demand for procurement still existed. The starting rate of downstream consumption remained strong and resilient until the end of January, and entered the off - season in February, which was in line with the seasonal performance in previous years [43]. - **Inventory Situation**: In 2026, the inventory accumulation of zinc started in February, about 15 days before the Chinese New Year, which was not much different from previous years. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival this year will be less than 250,000 tons, close to 200,000 tons [43][46]. - **Supply - side and Valuation**: The current smelting loss of zinc is at a historical high level. Although the by - product income is high, the comprehensive smelting profit is still partially in a loss state. The zinc price valuation is not high, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze if the inventory is quickly depleted after the festival [54]. Operation Suggestions - For copper, pay attention to the post - festival resumption of work progress and inventory depletion rhythm, and lay out long positions on dips [5]. - For aluminum, be vigilant against high - inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [5]. - For lead, pay attention to the release of restocking demand after the Lantern Festival, and mainly conduct range operations for the time being [5]. - For zinc, the smelting loss supports the price, it is recommended to go long on dips, and pay attention to the risk of a short squeeze [5].