焦煤焦炭月度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2026-1-30 目录 01 后市研判 02 焦煤基本面 03 焦炭基本面 后市研判 PART 01 ➢ 从焦煤基本面看，2026年首月，炼焦煤的供应逐步回升，供给端略显宽松，但进入2月，受春节假期影响，供应端 将有所收紧。在下游回补库存的带动下，炼焦煤上游库存有所去化，库存结构较去年同期有明显改善。其中，1月 以来独立焦企炼焦煤持续回补库存，由于今年春节时间较晚，回补的时间及体量均较去年同期有明显增加。钢厂 炼焦煤库存回补力度不及独立焦企，库存水平较去年同期有明显下降。临近年末，基本面数据表现平稳，近期宏 观情绪变化明显，放大盘面震幅。年前供需缺乏突出矛盾，预计震荡运行为主。 后市研判 PART 01 ➢ 从焦炭基本面，1月以来整体焦炭产量维持相对稳定态势，但较去年同期有所下移。进入2月面临春节假期，独立焦 企产量将有所下滑。247家钢铁日均铁水产量维持相对平稳，上下区间不大，带动焦炭消费量企稳。1月以来，独立 焦企的焦炭库存重心有所下移，钢厂回补库存带动库存量上升。今年焦企库存结构有改善，累库压力不大。焦企 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal has improved after some mines resumed production after the New Year's Day. However, due to the influence of coke price cuts, coking coal prices have been falling, and new orders have declined. With the squeeze on coking profits, the signal of coking coal price cuts is obvious, and downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. In the short term, due to winter environmental protection requirements, downstream coking and steel enterprises have increased maintenance and production cuts, and the demand for raw coal has declined. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may run weakly [2]. - **For Coke**: The current profits of coke enterprises are continuously compressed, and some coke enterprises in some areas have fallen into losses, with a small number of coke enterprises limiting production. Although the daily consumption of coke by steel mills has increased slightly, the supply of coke is still relatively loose, and steel mills still have a strong willingness to reduce prices. With the raw material price still falling slightly, it is expected that coke will run weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views - Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: After the New Year's Day, the supply has improved, but prices have fallen due to coke price cuts, and new orders have decreased. Downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is limited [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1100, and the basis is 19.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week, including 801 tons in steel mills, 295 tons in ports, and 861 tons in independent coke enterprises [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position increases [3]. - **Expectation**: Due to winter environmental protection requirements, downstream demand has declined, and it is expected that the short - term price will run weakly [2]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; bearish factors include slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. **Daily Views - Coke** - **Fundamentals**: The profits of coke enterprises are continuously compressed, some are in losses, and a small number are limiting production. The daily consumption of coke by steel mills has increased slightly, and the shipment of coke enterprises has improved [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1590, and the basis is - 58.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week, including 626 tons in steel mills, 187 tons in ports, and 45 tons in independent coke enterprises [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position decreases [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply of coke is relatively loose, steel mills have a strong willingness to reduce prices, and it is expected that coke will run weakly in the short term [6]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and rising blast furnace operating rate; bearish factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [8]. **Price** The prices of metallurgical coke in various ports on January 5th (17:30) are provided, with most prices showing a decline of 10 [10]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. **Other Data** - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises in the country is 74.48% [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants in the country is 25 yuan [44].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of coking coal and coke. For coking coal, it is expected that the supply will be difficult to recover before the Spring Festival, and the demand is hard to increase due to limited profits of coking and steel enterprises, so the short - term price may be weak. For coke, after the third round of price cuts, the inventory has slightly accumulated, and there is still a risk of further price cuts in the later period, with the short - term price also expected to be weak [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Near the end of the year, safety accidents occur frequently, and coal mine production enthusiasm is low. Downstream coking enterprises mainly purchase raw coal as needed, coal mine shipments are not smooth, and the overall transaction is average [2] - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1140, and the basis is 14.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2] - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 801 tons, port inventory is 295 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861 tons, and the total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons compared to last week [2] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [3] - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are increasing [3] - **Expectation**: After three rounds of coke price cuts, the profit recovery of coking and steel enterprises is slow. The current purchase of high - priced coal is still cautious, and the demand for coking coal is difficult to increase, with the short - term price expected to be weak [2] - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and difficult - to - increase supply [5] - **Negative Factors**: Slowed procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5] Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the third round of price cuts, the profit margin of some coking enterprises has narrowed. The overall production capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises is at a high level, and production is stable. Affected by market sentiment, the shipment rhythm has slowed down, and the inventory has slightly accumulated [7] - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1630, and the basis is - 111, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7] - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 626 tons, port inventory is 187 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45 tons, and the total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared to last week [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [7] - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is long, and long positions are decreasing [7] - **Expectation**: Some steel mills are controlling arrivals. Considering the profit gap between coking and steel enterprises, the speculative demand of traders has not started yet. There is still a pessimistic attitude in the market, and there is still a risk of further price cuts for metallurgical coke [7] - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9] - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit space of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [9] Price Index and Inventory - **Port Metallurgical Coke Price Index**: On December 23 (17:30), the prices of different grades and origins of metallurgical coke in various ports are provided, with some prices showing changes [10] - **Imported Coking Coal Spot Price**: On December 23 (17:30), the prices of different types and brands of imported coking coal in various ports are given, and some prices have increased [11] - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared to last week [19] - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared to last week [23] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [28] Other Data - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises in the country is 74.48% [41] - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in the country is 25 yuan [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of coking coal and coke on December 9, 2025. It is expected that the short - term price of coking coal may run weakly, and the price of coke may also show a weak trend in the short term [2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Regional coal mines are recovering slowly, with limited overall coking coal increment. After recent price cuts, coal mine shipments have improved slightly, but the market sentiment is weak, and end - users mainly have rigid demand. The marginal supply - demand relationship of coking coal has weakened, and the trading and speculative sentiment in the middle has cooled down, leading to price cuts [2]. - **Base Difference**: The spot market price is 1170, with a basis of 76.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 801 million tons, port inventory is 295 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1957 million tons, a decrease of 21 million tons from last week [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: After the coke price cut is implemented and the finished product price rises slightly, although the steel mill profit has improved, it is still in a loss state, and the actual market demand is insufficient. With the expectation of a weakening coke price, downstream buyers mainly make rigid purchases, and the short - term coking coal price may run weakly [2]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising molten iron production and difficult supply increase [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: As the price of coking coal at the raw material end continues to fall, coking enterprises still have a certain profit margin after the coke price cut, and the production load has been continuously increasing, with a steady increase in coke output. However, due to the orange warning for heavy pollution weather in Shaanxi and Henan, local coking enterprises are required to reduce production, and the supply of local coke resources has tightened. Some coking enterprises have increased inventory pressure [6]. - **Base Difference**: The spot market price is 1600, with a basis of 63, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 626 million tons, port inventory is 187 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 858 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is increasing [6]. - **Expectation**: In the off - season market, the demand for steel is weak, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has decreased, and the demand for coke has declined. Coking enterprises also have inventory accumulation. In the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, the weak situation of coke is difficult to improve, and the short - term coke price may run weakly [6]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising molten iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [8]. Price - **Imported Coking Coal**: The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal at various ports on December 8, 2025, including different varieties such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal, along with price changes [9]. - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: It shows the price index of port metallurgical coke on December 8, 2025, including different grades (such as quasi - first - grade and first - grade) and different origins (such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia), as well as price changes [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [27]. Other Data - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, the supply is restricted due to coal mine production resumption at a low - level and many disturbances such as safety inspections. Downstream coking enterprises have slowed down the replenishment rhythm. Although the market price increase atmosphere has cooled, coal mines have firm quotes due to low inventory and pre - sold orders. Considering the coking enterprises' replenishment demand, the short - term coking coal price is expected to remain stable with limited upward space [3]. - For coke, the overall production level of coking enterprises is relatively stable, but the supply has further decreased due to high coal - entering costs and reduced profits. With high raw coal prices, the supply is still tight, and downstream steel mills' purchasing enthusiasm remains. The short - term coke price is expected to remain stable [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is restricted, downstream replenishment slows, but coal mine quotes are firm; bullish [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 1430, basis is 211, spot premium over futures; bullish [3]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week; bullish [3]. - Disk: 20 - day line is upward, price is below the 20 - day line; neutral [3]. - Main position: Net short position of main coking coal contract, short position decreasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: Short - term coking coal price is expected to remain stable with limited upward space [3]. - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal output, difficult supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors: Slowed procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises, weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Fundamental: Production is stable, but supply decreases due to high costs and low profits; bullish [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 1690, basis is - 0.5, spot is at a slight discount to futures; neutral [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: 20 - day line is upward, price is below the 20 - day line; neutral [8]. - Main position: Net short position of main coke contract, short position increasing; bearish [8]. - Expectation: Short - term coke price is expected to remain stable [7]. - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal output, synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [10]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit space of steel mills, partial overdraft of replenishment demand [10]. Price - On November 12 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are presented, with some prices having price changes [11]. - On November 12 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke from different regions and of different grades are presented, with some prices having price changes [12]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [20]. Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [24]. Steel Mills' Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market continues to be strong due to tight supply and active restocking by downstream coke enterprises. After the third round of coke price increases, the cost pressure has eased, and demand for high - quality coking coal remains strong. However, some high - priced resources have low downstream acceptance. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the third round of price increases, coke enterprises are optimistic, but high coking coal prices keep profits near the break - even point. Supply remains tight in the short term. With high raw material costs, coke production increases slowly. Terminal pig iron production remains at a medium - high level, and steel mills still have restocking needs. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Supply in major producing areas is tight, with strict environmental and safety controls. Downstream restocking and reduced supply lead to inventory reduction. After the third round of coke price increases, the market is strong [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1430, and the basis is 139.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week, including 781.1 tons in steel mills, 295 tons in ports, and 819.3 tons in independent coke enterprises [2]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net long, and the long position increases [2]. - **Expectation**: After the third - round price increase of coke, the cost pressure eases, and demand for high - quality coking coal remains strong. However, some high - priced resources have low acceptance, and the price is expected to remain stable [2]. - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: After the third - round price increase, coke enterprises are optimistic, but high coking coal prices keep profits near the break - even point. Supply remains tight in the short term [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1720, and the basis is - 56.5, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week, including 650.8 tons in steel mills, 195.1 tons in ports, and 42.5 tons in independent coke enterprises [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position decreases [6]. - **Expectation**: High raw material costs slow down production increases. Pig iron production remains at a medium - high level, and steel mills have restocking needs. The price is expected to remain stable [6]. Factors Affecting Prices - **Coking Coal** - **Positive**: Pig iron production increases, and supply is difficult to increase [4]. - **Negative**: Coke and steel enterprises slow down raw material coal procurement, and steel prices are weak [4]. - **Coke** - **Positive**: Pig iron production and blast furnace operating rates increase [8]. - **Negative**: Steel mill profit margins are squeezed, and restocking demand is partially overdrawn [8]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - **Independent Coke Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. Other Data - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is 74.48% [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: The supply of coking coal in the main production areas is tightening, with coal mines strictly controlling over - production and strict environmental and safety measures in various regions. The downstream coke market is improving, and coal prices are expected to be stable in the short term. Although some steel mills have accepted the third round of coke price increases, and coke enterprises' profits have been repaired, they are still cautious about high - priced coal due to limited profits [2]. - **焦炭**: With the partial implementation of the third round of coke price increases, coke enterprises' profits have been repaired, but the rising raw coal prices have put pressure on profits. The supply side is tightening, and coke prices are expected to be stable in the short term, supported by cost and certain demand from steel mills [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price** - **焦煤**: On November 4, 2025, at 17:30, the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal were listed, with some prices having a 150 - yuan increase [9]. - **焦炭**: On November 4, 2025, at 17:30, the port metallurgical coke price indices showed that prices varied by port, grade, and production area [10]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory was 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; the coke port inventory was 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [18]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory was 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; their coke inventory was 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory was 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; their coke inventory was 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [27]. **Other Data** - **洗煤厂**: There is information on the inventory of raw coal, clean coal, and clean coal production of coal washing plants, but specific data is not fully presented [30][33][36]. - **焦炉产能利用率**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide was 74.48% [40]. - **吨焦平均盈利**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 25 yuan [44]. - **焦炭 production**: There is information on daily and monthly coke production, but specific data is not fully presented [46][49]. - **高炉开工率 and 铁水产量**: There is relevant information, but specific data is not fully presented [51][54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: The current raw material inventory of coking and steel enterprises is at a low level, with replenishment demand still existing. The first round of comprehensive price increase of coke has improved the miners' sentiment, supporting some coal prices to rise steadily. However, downstream coking enterprises and middlemen still have resistance to high - priced coal sources, and the market trading atmosphere has slightly declined. The overall market tends to be stable. The downstream coking and steel enterprises' operating rates are stable, and the hot metal output fluctuates little, with stable rigid demand. But the profits of coking and steel enterprises are mostly on the verge of profit and loss, and some are in the red, leading to varying degrees of production restrictions or maintenance, which slightly reduces the demand for raw coal. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [2]. - **焦炭**: Some coking enterprises have slightly reduced their production, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement support is strong. The coke inventory is mostly maintained at a low level, and some coking enterprises are reluctant to sell. However, the downstream steel mills' hot metal output has continuously declined, and the demand for raw materials has slightly decreased. The steel mills have not yet responded to the coke price increase, and the coking and steel enterprises have entered a game state. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **焦煤**: On October 20, 2025, the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal varied at different ports, with some prices rising and some remaining unchanged [11]. - **焦炭**: On October 20, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke showed an upward trend in some cases, with an increase of 30 for some types of coke [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory was 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; the coke port inventory was 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; the coke inventory was 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills was 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; the coke inventory was 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [28]. Other Data - **全国230家独立焦企样本产能利用率**: 74.48% [41]. - **全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利**: 25 yuan [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The terminal demand shows signs of weakening, and the procurement rhythm of the downstream of coking coal and coke has slowed down. However, the hot metal production remains at a high level, maintaining the rigid demand. Coupled with the reduction disturbances on the supply side of both coking coal and coke, the futures prices are still in a state where they are prone to rise and difficult to fall after a correction, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken. For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and maintain the reverse spread of coking coal September - January contracts [4][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The futures price first rose and then fell last week. It is still difficult to decline in the short term, but the upward momentum is weakening. The sixth round of spot price increase has been implemented. Coke 01 contract fell 0.25% to 1729.5 as of Friday's close. Freight rates were stable with a slight increase [7][9][17]. 3.1.2 Supply - The profitability of coking enterprises improved slightly, and the supply of independent coking enterprises increased slightly. As of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 65.38 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 86.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 46.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 tons [23][25][30]. 3.1.3 Demand - The hot metal production remained at a high level, providing strong rigid demand support. Some steel mills with low inventory were still urging delivery, and the inventory of coking enterprises continued to decrease. However, the speculative sentiment was average, the export profit declined slightly, and the improvement in the daily trading volume of building materials spot was not sustainable. As of August 15, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 240.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons; the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6 percentage points [31][33][37]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Inventories decreased across all sectors, and the total inventory declined. As of August 15, the total coke inventory decreased by 19.74 tons week - on - week to 887.42 tons. Among them, the port inventory decreased by 3.04 tons week - on - week to 215.11 tons; the inventory of the full - sample of independent coking enterprises decreased by 7.22 tons week - on - week to 62.51 tons; the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased by 9.48 tons week - on - week to 609.80 tons [38][40][43]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profitability of coking enterprises improved slightly, while the futures profit of coke continued to decline. The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking enterprises was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan. The futures profit of coke 01 decreased by 8.4 yuan/ton week - on - week to 130.5 yuan/ton [48][50]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 01 converged, and the 1 - 5 spread continued to weaken. The basis of coke 01 increased by 58.3 week - on - week to - 148.16, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 19 week - on - week to - 102 [52][54]. 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The futures price first rose and then fell last week. It is still difficult to decline in the short term, but the upward momentum is weakening. The spot price showed a mixed trend. Coking coal 01 contract rose 0.24% to 1230 as of Friday's close [57][59][60]. 3.2.2 Supply - The supply from production areas was still restricted, the output of coal washing plants increased slightly, the number of customs - cleared vehicles of Mongolian coal rebounded, and the import of coking coal from January to June decreased year - on - year. As of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 percentage points; the daily average output of clean coal was 26.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36 tons. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 52.9 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 7.26% [63][68][71]. 3.2.3 Inventory - The downstream inventory decreased, the upstream inventory increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. As of August 15, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 14.82 tons week - on - week to 2592.87 tons. Among them, the inventory of mining enterprises increased by 12.01 tons week - on - week to 257.67 tons; the port inventory decreased by 21.85 tons week - on - week to 255.49 tons; the inventory of clean coal in coal washing plants increased by 8.92 tons week - on - week to 297.03 tons; the inventory of the full - sample of independent coking enterprises decreased by 11.04 tons week - on - week to 976.88 tons; the inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased by 2.86 tons week - on - week to 805.8 tons [72][74][77]. 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 01 maintained a large premium, the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated, and the 1 - 5 spread weakened. The basis of coking coal 01 decreased by 3 week - on - week to - 235. The 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 week - on - week to - 149.5, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 17 week - on - week to - 56 [100][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an oscillating and bullish approach for both coking coal and coke, with a focus on risk control [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 23, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1135.5, up 11.00%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was reported at 900, up 40 yuan/ton. With strong macro - expectations and improved market confidence, the inventory is shifting from upstream to downstream, and the overall inventory is moderately high. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, so it should be treated with an oscillating and bullish view [2] - On July 23, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1707.5, up 3.83%. The coke enterprises started the second round of price hikes. The supply of raw materials is gradually improving, the iron - water output is at a high level, and most coal mines have no inventory pressure. The total coking coal inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, so it should be treated with an oscillating and bullish view [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Coking coal: The JM main - contract closing price was 1135.50 yuan/ton, up 87.00 yuan; the futures contract holding volume was 748737.00 lots, down 24788.00 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 contracts was - 63053.00 lots, up 3398.00 lots; the 1 - 9 month contract spread was 60.00 yuan/ton, down 28.50 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 0.00 [2] - Coke: The J main - contract closing price was 1707.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the futures contract holding volume was 52840.00 lots, down 1482.00 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 contracts was - 4463.00 lots, down 89.00 lots; the 1 - 9 month contract spread was 35.50 yuan/ton, down 19.00 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 760.00 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Coking coal: The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 900.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; the price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 120.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1460.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1440.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in LingShi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1250.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1000.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; the JM main - contract basis was 114.50 yuan/ton, up 63.00 yuan [2] - Coke: The price of Tangshan quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1445.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - class metallurgical coke was 1370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main - contract basis was - 262.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Coking coal: The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 298.69 million tons, down 2.08 million tons; the cleaned coal inventory was 191.54 million tons, down 5.53 million tons; the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.85%, up 0.52%; the raw coal production was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons; the import volume of coal and lignite was 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00 million tons; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 192.90 million tons, up 1.10 million tons; the import coking coal inventory at 16 ports was 553.50 million tons, down 0.29 million tons; the total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 929.11 million tons, up 36.76 million tons; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 791.10 million tons, up 8.17 million tons; the available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 12.63 days, up 0.15 days; the import volume of coking coal was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; the coking coal production was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons [2] - Coke: The coke inventory at 18 ports was 252.71 million tons, down 2.97 million tons; the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 87.55 million tons, down 5.53 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 638.99 million tons, up 1.19 million tons; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.46 days, down 0.18 days; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons; the coke production was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.01%, up 0.14%; the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 43.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05%; the crude steel production was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in 8 provinces (regions) including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia [2] - Russian President Putin will visit China in September [2] - The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia [2] - Germany has announced an investment initiative worth over 630 billion euros to boost the economy [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth plan for ten key industries [2] - The US Treasury Secretary will meet with the Chinese Finance Minister to discuss the extension of the agreement to avoid a significant tariff increase [2]