现金流复苏
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波音(BA):交付提升推动公司现金流复苏,737及787产量将提升
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-12-17 13:58
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Boeing with a target price of $240.00, representing a potential upside of 16.79% from the current stock price of $205.50 [2][30]. Core Insights - The recovery of cash flow is driven by increased aircraft deliveries, with production rates for the 737 and 787 expected to rise [3][7]. - The delivery schedule for the 777X is critical for the company's cash flow recovery, with expectations for cash flow breakeven around 2028 [7][13]. - Boeing's commercial aircraft segment (BCA) reported a revenue increase of 49.1% year-over-year, although it still faced significant operating losses due to delays in the 777X project [17][24]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, Boeing's actual revenue was $77.794 billion, with a projected revenue of $88.078 billion for 2025, reflecting a growth of 32.41% [5]. - The company reported a GAAP net loss of $53.4 billion for Q3 2025, translating to a loss of $7.14 per share, which was worse than market expectations [9][30]. - The operating loss for the commercial aircraft segment was $53.5 billion, primarily due to the 777X delays, with a significant impact on the operating profit margin [17][24]. Production and Delivery Outlook - Boeing expects to increase the production rate of the 737 MAX to 42 units per month by October 2025 and plans to enhance the production capacity of the 787 to support a rate of 12-14 units per month [7][22]. - The total backlog for commercial aircraft exceeds 5,900 units, valued at approximately $534.6 billion, indicating strong future demand [20][30]. Segment Performance - The Defense, Space & Security (BDS) segment generated $6.9 billion in revenue, a year-over-year increase of 24.7%, with stable order growth [24]. - The Global Services (BGS) segment reported $5.37 billion in revenue, up 9.6% year-over-year, driven by increased maintenance orders from commercial airlines [27].