玻璃行业供需改善
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旗滨集团(601636):25Q1毛利率底部回暖 静待行业供需改善
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-06 00:36
Core Viewpoint - The company experienced significant declines in revenue and net profit in 2024, with challenges in both float glass and photovoltaic glass segments, but there are signs of recovery in photovoltaic glass prices in Q1 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 15.65 billion, 380 million, and 290 million yuan, respectively, showing declines of -0.2%, -78.1%, and -82.6% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company achieved revenues, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 4.05 billion, -320 million, and -330 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of -10%, -162.4%, and -163.6% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenues, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 3.48 billion, 470 million, and -3 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -9.7%, +6.4%, and -100.7% [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The float glass segment faced weak demand, with revenues declining by -24.3% to 6.86 billion yuan in 2024, driven by a decrease in real estate completion area [1]. - Float glass sales volume decreased by -6.4% to 10.7 million heavy boxes in 2024, with a corresponding drop in single box revenue by -15.2 yuan to 643 yuan [1]. - The average price of float glass in Q1 2025 was down -31.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing industry challenges [1]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Glass Performance - The photovoltaic glass segment saw rapid growth in 2024, with revenues increasing by +68.6% to 5.75 billion yuan, supported by new production capacity [2]. - Despite a 124% increase in sales volume to 435 million square meters, the segment faced a price war, leading to a negative net profit of -0.6 yuan per square meter [2]. - In Q1 2025, photovoltaic glass prices began to recover, with a 5.2% increase in average price compared to the previous quarter [2]. Group 4: Profitability and Cost Structure - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 15.5%, down by -9.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on prices in both business segments [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 12%, reflecting a recovery in photovoltaic glass prices and cost optimization efforts [3]. - The company recorded non-recurring gains of 470 million yuan in Q1 2025, contributing to a net profit margin of 13.5%, an increase of +2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong position in the float glass market, ranking second in capacity, benefiting from cost advantages such as self-sufficient silica sand and flexible fuel structures [4]. - In the photovoltaic glass segment, the company has become the third largest player, with expectations of improved profitability due to cost advantages [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 16.777 billion, 18.170 billion, and 19.861 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 877 million, 1.230 billion, and 1.421 billion yuan, indicating significant growth potential [4].