宏 2025 年 10 月 13 日 中国宏观周报（2025 年 10 月第 1 周） 假期线下出行较热 证券分析师 平安观点： 观 报 告 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，受十一假期扰动，月初部分工业品生产边际回落，新房 销售也有调整；不过，假期线下出行较热，港口集装箱吞吐量仍处高位， 上海和宁波出口运价回升，黑色原材料期货价格也有上涨。 1. 工业：十一假期扰动生产。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、水泥熟料 产能利用率、钢材表观需求边际回落；浮法玻璃开工率持平；部分化工品 开工率提升。2）中下游方面，本周纺织聚酯开工率、织造业开工率边际回 升；汽车全钢胎开工率、半钢胎开工率回落。 2. 地产：新房成交边际回落。1）销售方面，10 月以来（截至 10 日），30 大 中城市新房销售面积同比增长-28.7%，较上月回落，受假期天数增加的影 响，也有基数抬升的扰动。2）价格 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.10.9-10.10 吨。现货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1148元/吨，较节前下跌0.69%。 供给方面，近期建材行业工作方案和沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好 情绪有所升温，供应端扰动因素较多；上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产225条，开工率 76.01%，日熔量16.13万吨，供给低位企稳。需求方面，部分中下游阶段性投机补库， 带动厂家库存小幅去化；终端地产复苏乏力，下游深加工厂订单偏弱，传统需求旺季成 色不足。截止10月9日，全国浮法玻璃企业库存6282.40万重量箱，较前一周增加5.84%， 库存处于同期历史偏高位置。综合来看，中美关税摩擦或再度升温，玻璃基本面中性偏 弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 上周玻璃期货延续下 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.10.9-10.10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 上周纯碱期货延续下跌走势，主力合约SA2601收盘较国庆节前下跌1.20%报1240元/吨。 现货方面，河北沙河重碱低端价1150元/吨，较节前下跌1.71%。 供给方面，近期纯碱检修企业少，预计下周产量77万吨，开工率89%，供应依旧处于较 高水平，远兴能源二期预计在年底前投产，整体供给充裕。需求端，近期下游浮法玻璃供应 扰动因素较多，叠加光伏玻璃"反内卷"落实等仍将压制纯碱刚需水平。节前库存已连续数 周去库，但目前库存依然处于历史同期高位水平，库存压力较大；截止10月9日，全国纯碱 厂内库存165.98万吨，较前一周增加0.50%，库存仍处于历史同期高位。综合来看，中美关 税摩擦或再度升温， ...

国金证券近日发布非金属建材周观点：本周全国高标均价349元/t，同比-53元/t，环比-2 元/t，全国平均出货率44.5%，环比-1.9pct，库容比为66.7%，环比+1.1pct，同比+2.7pct。玻 璃：本周浮法均价1289.81元/吨，环比上涨65.07元/吨，涨幅5.31%，截至9月30日重点监测 省份生产企业库存天数约24.8天，较上周四减少1.38天。截至本周四，2.0mm镀膜面板主流 订单价格13元/平左右，环比持平。 ①9月29日，中材科技公告称，拟定增募资不超过44.8亿元，用于年产3,500万米低介电 纤维布项目、年产2,400万米超低损耗低介电纤维布项目、偿还国拨资金专项应付款、补充 流动资金。②10月8日，华新水泥发布公告：拟向激励对象11人授予限制性股票257.8万股； 拟斥3225.0万-6450.0万元回购公司股份，回购股份价格不超25元/股；公司终止筹划境外子 公司分拆上市；公司拟更名为"华新建材"，证券代码未变。③10月10日，中材国际发布2025 年第三季度主要经营数据。 风险提示： 【周期联动】 ①水泥：本周全国高标均价349元/t，同比-53元/t，环比-2元/t ...

旗滨集团 20251010 摘要 浮法玻璃行业面临旺季不旺，多数企业盈亏平衡或现金流失血，成本高 企地区及天然气企业尤甚。政策介入和环保督查或加速供给端市场化出 清，带来价格修复机会，预计 1-3 个月内浮法玻璃价格有望修复。 旗滨集团核心竞争力在于浮法玻璃和光伏玻璃的极致成本优势，通过规 模化硅砂资源自给率及精益管理构筑成本护城河。公司正将浮法玻璃模 式复制到光伏玻璃，新建产能均为 1,200 吨大规格池窑，配套上游矿产 和管道气资源。 旗滨集团浮法玻璃业务经历了快速扩张期（2011-2015）、内部优化期 （2016-2018）和"一体两翼"战略重启扩张期（2019 至今），目前 浮法玻璃毛利率处于行业第一梯队。 浮法玻璃价格波动源于供需错配，供给端刚性，需求端线性变化。行业 亏损达一定程度时，集中冷修压缩供给，需求边际回暖则价格弹性显著。 2024 年初以来利润徘徊在盈亏平衡线上下，管道气成本较高盈利能力 较弱。 四季度反内卷政策及环保限产预期增强，供给端沙河地区煤制气产线改 造或停产风险，北方冬季环保限产预期，可能扰动供给。中期看，环保 旗滨集团光伏玻璃领域经历全行业亏损期，现已现盈利修复拐点。202 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 玻璃纤维：截至10月10日，无碱2400tex直接纱报3400-4000元/吨(个别厂报价较高)，无碱2400texSMC纱 报4400-5000元/吨，无碱2400tex喷射纱报5400-6500元/吨，无碱2400tex毡用合股纱报4400-5300元/吨， 无碱2400tex板材纱报4600-5300元/吨，无碱2000tex热塑直接纱(普通级)报4100-4400元/吨。不同区域价 格或有差异，实际成交存灵活空间。 （来源：研报虎） 消费建材：截至2025年10月10日，原油价格为65.05美元/桶，周环比下跌3.59%，较2025年年初下跌 15.22%，同比下跌16.52%；沥青价格为4570元/吨，周环比持平，较2025年年初上涨2.93%，同比上涨 4.58%；丙烯酸价格为6500元/吨，周环比下跌1.14%，较2025年年初下跌16.67%，同比上涨0.78%；钛 白粉价格为13000元/吨，周环比下跌0.38%，较2025年年初下跌9.09%，同比下跌14.19%。 政策继续推动行业供给转型，积极布局建材机会 近日， ...

建筑材料 2025 年 10 月 12 日 政策继续推动行业供给转型，积极布局建材机会 ——行业周报 近日，住建部明确将深化建筑业改革，以工业化、数字化、绿色化为发展路 径，系统打造"中国建造"升级版。此次改革旨在推动建筑业从传统粗放模式 向精细化、智能化转型，核心举措包括大力发展装配式建筑等新型建造方式， 加快建筑机器人等智能建造技术在工程中的应用，并全面推广绿色建材、绿色 建造和绿色建筑。通过这一系列改革，最终目标是推动整个行业实现高质量发 展，全面提升"中国建造"的品质、效率和可持续性。此次以"三化"为核心 的行业深刻变革，将为绿色建材、智能建造等细分领域打开新的增长空间，建 材板块的长期投资价值日益凸显。消费建材板块推荐：三棵树（渠道下沉，零 售扩张）、东方雨虹（防水龙头，经营结构优化）、伟星新材（经营优质，零 售业务占比高）、坚朗五金；受益标的：北新建材（石膏板龙头，多元化扩张 涂料、防水板块业务）等。国家发展改革委等部门印发《水泥行业节能降碳专 项行动计划》要求到 2025 年底，水泥熟料产能控制在 18 亿吨左右，能效标杆 水平以上产能占比达到 30%，能效基准水平以下产能完成技术改造或淘汰，水 ...

黑色建材周报 | 2025-10-12 市场谨慎观望，玻碱震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面，双节后在本周仅有的两个交易日，玻璃主力2601合约震荡偏弱，截至周五收盘，收于1207元/吨。现货 方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，国内浮法玻璃市场周均价1263元/吨，环比上涨85.17元/吨，价格重心上移。 供应方面：玻璃产能利用率和产量小幅增加，节后供应较为稳定。需求方面：浮法玻璃市场处于传统旺季，出货 情况平稳，节后市场态度谨慎，仍以刚需采购为主。库存方面：据隆众资讯最新数据显示，全国浮法玻璃样本企 业总库存6282万重箱，大幅增库，持续关注10月份的库存情况。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃产量持稳，部分产线点火，预计后续产量仍将有所增加。节日期间产销数据显著走弱，节 后虽有一定上升，但整体仍偏弱。玻璃价格处于相对低位，受政策影响较大，但较弱的基本面对于价格依旧形成 强力压制，后期关注政策变化情况及玻璃供应情况。 纯碱方面，本周纯碱主力合约2601震荡偏弱，截至周五收盘，收于1240元/吨 。现货方面，报价部分下调，期现成 交情况较好。 供应方面：据隆众资讯最新数据，本周纯碱产能利用率88.41%，环比下降0.76%。产量77. ...

1. Glass Report 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 1.2 Core Viewpoints - In September, the spot glass market operated steadily. Traditional peak - season demand warmed up slightly, and inventory decreased. The policy signal of banning new capacity boosted market sentiment, leading to price hikes and increased sales - to - production ratios. However, real - estate data showed a downward trend in housing sales, and glass demand was unlikely to improve significantly. In October, supply fluctuations are expected to be limited, and the market will focus on capacity elimination policies. It is recommended to operate with caution [12][13]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 1.3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of September 30, 2025, the spot price of float glass was 1220 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month; the closing price of the main glass contract was 1228 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton month - on - month; the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton week - on - week. - The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 151.27 yuan/ton, up 13.57 yuan/ton; with coal was 95.07 yuan/ton, up 1.04 yuan/ton; with petroleum coke was 61.37 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. - The weekly output of national float glass was 112.42 tons, up 0.3 tons month - on - month, with 225 production lines in operation (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.01%. - The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.5 tons, up 0.10 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 47.10%, down 1.00%. In 2024 from January to August, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 57303.92 million square meters, down 4.70% year - on - year; in August, it was 5744.15 million square meters, down 10.98% year - on - year. In August, automobile production and sales were 281.54/285.66 million vehicles, up 12.96%/16.44% year - on - year; from January to August, cumulative production and sales were 2105.10/2112.80 million vehicles. - The national float glass factory inventory was 5935.5 million heavy boxes, down 155.3 million heavy boxes; the inventory in the Shahe area was 296.4 million heavy boxes, down 8.08 million heavy boxes [12]. 1.3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of September 30, 2025, the basis was - 8 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 01 - 05 spread was - 118 yuan/ton (+9), the 05 - 09 spread was - 73 yuan/ton (- 7), the 09 - 01 spread was 191 yuan/ton (- 2), and the open interest was 1.7939 million lots [17][20]. 1.3.3 Profit and Cost - The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 151.27 yuan/ton, up 13.57 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4000 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit with coal was 95.07 yuan/ton, up 1.04 yuan/ton; with petroleum coke was 61.37 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [26][29]. 1.3.4 Supply and Demand - As of September 30, 2025, the weekly output of float glass was 112.42 tons, up 0.3 tons month - on - month, with 225 production lines in operation (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.01%. The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.5 tons, up 0.10 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 47.10%, down 1.00%. In 2024 from January to August, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 57303.92 million square meters, down 4.70% year - on - year; in August, it was 5744.15 million square meters, down 10.98% year - on - year. In August, automobile production and sales were 281.54/285.66 million vehicles, up 12.96%/16.44% year - on - year; from January to August, cumulative production and sales were 2105.10/2112.80 million vehicles [12][33][36]. 1.3.5 Inventory - As of September 30, 2025, the national float glass factory inventory was 5935.5 million heavy boxes, down 155.3 million heavy boxes; the inventory in the Shahe area was 296.4 million heavy boxes, down 8.08 million heavy boxes [46]. 2. Soda Ash Report 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2.2 Core Viewpoints - In September, the domestic soda ash market showed a weak and volatile pattern, lacking strong drivers. At the beginning of the month, the market was weak; in the middle, supply shrank due to short - term shutdowns and pre - holiday stocking, and market sentiment improved. At the end of the month, supply became more abundant, and demand weakened, but low inventory and pending orders supported prices. In October, supply is expected to remain abundant, and manufacturers will focus on reducing inventory. The market is expected to be volatile and weak [56][57]. 2.3 Summary by Directory 2.3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of September 30, 2025, the spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1188 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton month - on - month; the closing price of the main glass contract was 1278 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton month - on - month; the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. - The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 97.2 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 115.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 706 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4000 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest was 205 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2170 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. - The weekly output of soda ash was 77.69 tons, up 3.12 tons month - on - month, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.12%. The output of heavy soda ash was 43.01 tons, up 1.24 tons month - on - month; the output of light soda ash was 34.68 tons, up 1.88 tons month - on - month. - As of September 27, 2025, the weekly output of float glass was 112.42 tons, up 0.3 tons month - on - month, with 225 production lines in operation (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.01%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August was 3.1 million tons. - The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.6515 million tons, down 0.1041 million tons; the available inventory days were 13.69 days, down 0.87 days. The heavy - soda ash factory inventory was 92.24 tons, down 8.37 tons; the light - soda ash factory inventory was 72.91 tons, down 2.04 tons [56]. 2.3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of September 30, 2025, the basis was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The 01 - 05 spread was - 89 yuan/ton (+1), the 05 - 09 spread was - 61 yuan/ton (- 11), the 09 - 01 spread was 150 yuan/ton (+10), and the open interest was 1.7939 million lots [61][64]. 2.3.3 Profit and Cost - The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 97.2 yuan/ton, down 0.45 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 115.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 706 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4000 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest was 205 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2170 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. 2.3.4 Supply and Demand - As of September 30, 2025, the weekly output of soda ash was 77.69 tons, up 3.12 tons month - on - month, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.12%. The output of heavy soda ash was 43.01 tons, up 1.24 tons month - on - month; the output of light soda ash was 34.68 tons, up 1.88 tons month - on - month. As of September 30, 2025, the weekly output of float glass was 112.42 tons, up 0.3 tons month - on - month, with 225 production lines in operation (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.01%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in August was 3.1 million tons [81][84][87]. 2.3.5 Inventory - As of September 30, 2025, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.6515 million tons, down 0.1041 million tons; the available inventory days were 13.69 days, down 0.87 days. The heavy - soda ash factory inventory was 92.24 tons, down 8.37 tons; the light - soda ash factory inventory was 72.91 tons, down 2.04 tons [91][94].

人民财讯10月10日电，耀皮玻璃（600819）10月10日公告，全资子公司大连耀皮玻璃有限公司(简称"大 连耀皮")熔窑节能升级及浮法玻璃生产线自动化改造项目于2025年10月10日成功点火。项目正式投产 后，大连耀皮将实现"产线焕新+高端制造"双重目标，对核心设备熔窑技术升级并提升生产线自动化水 平，升级钙钛矿、碲化镉薄膜太阳能电池基板TCO玻璃制造能力，推动产品结构向高附加值、高技术含 量方向跃升，生产更多符合光伏、光热、汽车及工业等领域需求的高性能玻璃产品。 ...