Group 1: Macro Insights - The March PMI returned to expansion, indicating a recovery in supply and demand, influenced by seasonal factors and a positive outlook from the National People's Congress [5] - The rise in the raw material purchase price index suggests a potential shift in PPI from negative to positive, but this may pressure corporate profit margins if the increase outpaces factory prices [5] - The first quarter GDP growth is expected to be at least 4.8%-5%, indicating a strong start to the year despite geopolitical tensions [5] Group 2: Energy Sector - China Shenhua (601088.SH) reported a 2025 revenue of 294.9 billion yuan, a 13.2% decline, with a net profit of 52.8 billion yuan, down 5.3% [11] - Huaneng International (600011.SH) achieved a revenue of 229.29 billion yuan, a 6.62% decline, but net profit increased by 42.17% due to reduced fuel costs [13] - New Energy (600956.SH) is expected to see revenue growth driven by efficient wind power operations, with projected revenues of 223.01 billion yuan in 2026 [24] Group 3: Consumer Goods - Midea Group (000333.SZ) reported a revenue of 458.5 billion yuan in 2025, a 12.08% increase, with a net profit of 43.945 billion yuan, up 14.03% [16] - Anqi Yeast (600298.SH) achieved a revenue of 119.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a 10.1% increase in its main business, indicating strong sales growth [22] - East Peak Beverage (605499.SH) reported a revenue of 208.75 billion yuan, a 31.80% increase, with a net profit of 44.15 billion yuan, up 32.72% [30] Group 4: Textile and Apparel - The sportswear sector is expected to see steady growth in 2025, with Anta Sports reporting a revenue of 80.22 billion yuan, a 13.3% increase [8] - Shenzhou International (02313.HK) reported a revenue of 30.99 billion yuan, an 8% increase, but net profit declined by 7% [29] Group 5: Technology and AI - Longxin Technology (300682.SZ) reported a revenue of 4.517 billion yuan, a 0.84% increase, with net profit rising by 141.94% [18] - Baoxin Software (600845.SH) experienced a revenue decline of 19.59% to 10.972 billion yuan, but is expected to benefit from AI trends [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In March 2026, the price of the glass futures main contract fluctuated between 1017 - 1163 yuan/ton, closing at 1019 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of 43 yuan/ton or -4.05% [5]. - The average price of the domestic float glass market increased in March, mainly supported by the restocking demand after the Spring Festival. However, in the second half of the month, the procurement pace slowed down, and the market trends in different regions diverged [7][9]. - In April, the decline in supply may narrow as previously ignited production lines will start producing glass. Demand will enter the digestion stage, with insufficient purchasing power from the mid - and downstream after restocking. Coupled with high social inventory, supply - demand pressure will increase. The rising energy prices at the cost end provide bottom support, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations, with resistance to upward movement and limited downward space [8][43]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Price Trend - In March, the average price of the domestic float glass market increased, and manufacturers focused on destocking. By the end of the month, the procurement pace slowed down, and regional market trends diverged. Six production lines shut down in March, and one more was expected to shut down by the end of the month. The overall supply decreased significantly. The national average price of the float glass market was 1153 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 42 yuan/ton or 3.78% [9]. - The price changes in different regions varied. For example, in North China, the average price was 1063 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.20% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.35% [10]. Cost - Profit Analysis - In March, the average profit of float glass using coal - gas as fuel was - 31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14 yuan/ton; that using petroleum coke was - 15 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 59 yuan/ton; and that using natural gas was - 95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 61 yuan/ton. The profit trends of float glass with different fuels diverged [15]. Supply - Side Situation - In March, the monthly total output of float glass increased compared with the previous month, but the daily output and capacity utilization rate declined. The estimated output for the month was 4.5342 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77%; the daily output was 146,300 tons, a decrease of 2,610 tons or 1.75% from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate was 73.43%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from the previous period. Six production lines shut down in March, one more was expected to shut down by the end of the month, and three production lines were ignited, with the daily output continuing to decline [19]. Demand - Side Situation - In March, the total consumption of float glass increased month - on - month. The domestic theoretical consumption was 460,860 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.16% [27]. Inventory - Side Situation - In March, the inventory of sample float glass enterprises first increased and then decreased. By the end of the month, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 73.622 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.3861 million weight boxes (3.14%) from the end of the previous month, but an increase of 6.6098 million weight boxes (9.86%) year - on - year [29]. Import - Export Data - In February 2026, China imported 10,800 tons of float glass, a decrease of 1,700 tons or 13.66% from the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to February 2026 was 23,400 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons or 8.21% compared with the same period last year [36]. - In February 2026, China exported 78,200 tons of float glass, a decrease of 13,700 tons or 14.91% from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to February 2026 was 170,200 tons, an increase of 50,300 tons or 41.91% compared with the same period last year [39]. Market Outlook - In March, the domestic float glass market showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing. The national average price increased month - on - month, but regional trends diverged, and the trading volume weakened at the end of the month. The core contradiction in the market lies in the game between the release of post - festival phased restocking demand, continuous supply contraction, and medium - to - high inventory pressure [41]. - In April, the decline in supply may narrow, and demand will enter the digestion stage. The market is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations, with resistance to upward movement and limited downward space. The recommended trading strategies are to wait and see or conduct range operations for single - side trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and consider covered call writing to increase returns or buying put options to prevent price correction risks [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair and policies) and "weak real - world demand" (a sluggish real - estate market), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on price rebounds. It's expected to continue an oscillatory adjustment in the short term [1]. - The纯碱 market still has an unimproved situation of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. It's expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak - trending fluctuation in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Market performance: The main glass contract opened and closed lower, with an intraday weakening trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened downward, indicating a short - term weakening trend. The intraday high was 1040, the low was 1017, and the closing price was 1019, down 23 yuan/ton or 2.21% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume increased by 168,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest increased by 32,126 lots [1]. - Market analysis: The core contradiction lies between supply contraction expectations and weak real - world demand. High inventory restricts price rebounds. Recently, some glass production lines have undergone cold repair, and supply has continued to decline. However, downstream demand recovery is below expectations, and real - estate completion data suppresses far - month demand expectations. As the delivery month approaches, the main contract will return to the fundamental delivery logic [1]. 纯碱 - Market performance: The main 纯碱 contract opened and closed lower, with an intraday weakening trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands opened in a horn shape, indicating a short - term weakening trend. The intraday high was 1206, the low was 1177, and the closing price was 1177, down 38 yuan/ton or 3.13% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume decreased by 98,996 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 35,848 lots [2]. - Inventory situation: The total domestic 纯碱 inventory of manufacturers was 1.8648 million tons, an increase of 12,900 tons or 0.70% from last Thursday. Among them, light 纯碱 inventory was 930,400 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons from the previous period, and heavy 纯碱 inventory was 934,400 tons, an increase of 29,100 tons from the previous period [2]. - Market analysis: The core logic is the unimproved mismatch between supply and demand. Short - term geopolitical risks push up energy costs, providing support. However, due to the expected reduction in float glass production and the impact of the photovoltaic industry, the rigid demand for 纯碱 is weak, while daily production remains high, resulting in continuous supply pressure. As the delivery month approaches, the main contract will face the contradiction of weak reality and high inventory [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - selling or short - selling on rallies within the range for the FG2605 contract [37] 2. Core View of the Report - In the second quarter, the glass futures market will continue the low - level operation trend of the first quarter. The FG2605 contract is expected to trade in the range of [900, 1200] yuan/ton [37] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - Since the beginning of the year, the glass futures main contract has been in a low - level operation, with small overall fluctuations. Although the commodity market was bullish in the first quarter, the glass futures was not significantly boosted due to its own fundamental pressure [5] Production and Supply - Since the beginning of the year, there have been both cold repairs and ignitions of float glass production lines, and the daily melting volume in production has continued to decline. Currently, it has reached a low level in recent years, with a large gap compared to the same period in 2025 [12] - In Shahe, the coal - to - gas conversion has limited impact on the supply of float glass in the second quarter. There are four planned ignition production lines in Shahe this year, and three of them were ignited in March with a total daily melting volume of about 3000 tons/day, expected to produce glass in April [17] - Looking ahead to the second quarter, the downward space for the daily melting volume in production of float glass is limited, and the actual supply may increase from the low level as the production lines ignited in March are expected to produce glass in April [20] Demand - Since the beginning of this year, the real - estate completion end has faced multiple pressures, and the real - estate completion area from January to February continued to decline significantly year - on - year. Affected by this, the consumption of float glass from January to February decreased by about 2.7% compared to the same period last year [25] - After the Spring Festival this year, the downstream resumed work slowly, and the order release was insufficient. The real - estate completion end is in a downward channel, which will continue to drag down the demand for float glass in the short term [31] Inventory - In the first quarter, float glass manufacturers and mid - stream inventory accumulated significantly, and the current inventory level is much higher than the same period in previous years. It is difficult for manufacturers to destock in the short term [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance despite current challenges in the industry [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.567 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 16.68% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 981 million yuan, down 2.59% year-on-year [1]. - The company's photovoltaic glass sales faced temporary pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 8.16% to 1.162 billion square meters, while the average selling price (ASP) for photovoltaic glass was 12.04 yuan per square meter, down 9.45% year-on-year [2]. - Despite the decline in revenue, the company's gross margin improved by 0.47 percentage points to 16.11%, maintaining its leading position in the industry [2]. - The company's overseas revenue from photovoltaic glass increased by 15.24% year-on-year to 4.847 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.26%, significantly higher than the domestic margin of 11.79% [4]. - The company's subsidiary in Vietnam reported a revenue increase of 2.43% year-on-year to 2.020 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 22.19% to 457 million yuan, showcasing the effectiveness of its overseas capacity expansion [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.103 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.92% year-on-year, but turned a profit with a net profit of 343 million yuan [1]. - The overall gross margin for the company improved to 16.91%, with a slight increase in the expense ratio to 8.03% [3]. Business Segments - The engineering glass segment saw a revenue increase of 8.25% to 544 million yuan, with a gross margin of 34.10%, up 26.89 percentage points [3]. - The home glass segment experienced a revenue decline of 18.73% to 251 million yuan, with a gross margin of 12.52%, down 0.81 percentage points [3]. - The float glass segment faced a significant revenue drop of 60.87% to 111 million yuan, with a negative gross margin of -13.67% [3]. Future Outlook - The report projects a recovery in the company's performance, with net profit estimates for 2026, 2027, and 2028 at 1.218 billion yuan, 1.862 billion yuan, and 2.471 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance despite current challenges in the industry [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.567 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 981 million yuan, down 2.59% year-on-year [1]. - The company's photovoltaic glass sales faced temporary pressure, with a volume decrease of 8.16% to 1.162 billion square meters in 2025, while the average selling price (ASP) for photovoltaic glass was 12.04 yuan per square meter, down 9.45% year-on-year [2]. - Despite the decline in revenue, the company's gross margin improved by 0.47 percentage points to 16.11%, maintaining its leading position in the industry [2]. - The company's overseas revenue from photovoltaic glass increased by 15.24% to 4.847 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 24.26%, significantly higher than the domestic margin of 11.79% [4]. - The company's subsidiary in Vietnam showed resilience, with a revenue increase of 2.43% to 2.020 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 22.19% to 457 million yuan, indicating strong overseas operational performance [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.103 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.92% year-on-year, but turned a profit with a net profit of 343 million yuan [1]. - The overall gross margin for the company improved to 16.91% in 2025, with a slight increase in the expense ratio to 8.03% [3]. Business Segments - The engineering glass segment saw a revenue increase of 8.25% to 544 million yuan, with a gross margin of 34.10%, while the home glass segment experienced an 18.73% revenue decline to 251 million yuan [3]. - The float glass segment faced significant challenges, with a revenue drop of 60.87% to 111 million yuan and a negative gross margin of 13.67% [3]. Future Outlook - The report projects a recovery in the company's performance, with net profit estimates for 2026, 2027, and 2028 at 1.218 billion yuan, 1.862 billion yuan, and 2.471 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [4][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on glass and soda ash (FG/SA) is bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - In Q1, the prices of glass and soda ash were pressured by the loose supply-demand fundamentals, but rebounded periodically due to the market sentiment boosted by the escalating geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran. In Q2, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash will continue to be pressured, and the upward drive is restricted by the weak industry demand. The supply reduction is the key to solve the problem of loose supply-demand. Industry customers should focus on selling hedging and cash-and-carry arbitrage [1][3][31] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Q1 Glass Price Pressured and Fluctuated - Glass futures and spot prices were generally stable with a steady center of gravity and pressured prices in Q1. Affected by administrative production cuts and geopolitical conflicts, glass prices strengthened periodically, with the main contract price fluctuating narrowly between 1050-1150. The price was pushed up by production cuts and geopolitical conflicts but adjusted downward due to the pressured fundamentals. The supply reduction was slow, downstream demand was weak, and inventory pressure was high [4] - The basis fluctuated narrowly, with more opportunities for cash-and-carry trading, and the fluctuations came from the futures side. The inter-month spread also fluctuated narrowly. Glass factory profits were mainly under pressure and fluctuated due to the increase in raw fuel costs and the cautious performance of spot prices [5] 1.2 Soda Ash Price Fluctuated in a Range - The overall trend of soda ash prices in Q1 was similar to that of glass, but with stronger supply elasticity and greater price fluctuations. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, soda ash prices rose significantly but then fell back, with the main contract oscillating between 1150-1270. The price increase was mainly due to the fermentation of the geopolitical conflict, but the pressured fundamentals dragged down the upward movement. The high supply pressure was prominent, and the terminal demand was weak [9] - The basis fluctuated narrowly in Q1, and the inter-month spread narrowed and flattened. There was no obvious supply-demand difference over time, and the spread also fluctuated narrowly [12] 2. Glass Supply and Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply to Continue to Decline Steadily in Q2 - From January to February 2026, the output of float glass was 8.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.27%. In Q1, the daily melting volume of float glass decreased steadily, and the start-up and capacity utilization rates declined. The supply decreased due to the implementation of "clean energy transformation" policies and market self-regulation [16] - The profit continued to be under pressure. The cost of glass production with different fuels was relatively high, and the weekly average profit was negative. In Q2, the supply will continue to decline steadily due to profit squeeze and administrative requirements, although some glass factories have production plans, the new production capacity is expected to be limited [18] 2.2 Demand Generally Weak but Resilient - In Q1, glass demand was generally average but resilient. The glass factory inventory first increased and then decreased, but the overall inventory pressure was still high. Due to the weak real estate and stable manufacturing, the overall demand was weak. In Q2, the demand is expected to remain weak, with the real estate demand being weak in the medium term and the manufacturing demand remaining resilient [20][21] 3. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Supply Remained at a High Level - Since the beginning of this year, the capacity has been operating at a high level, and the supply has remained high. The cumulative weekly output from the beginning of the year to late March reached 9.36 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. The influence of maintenance reduction cannot be underestimated, and the industry concentration is high. The import has decreased significantly, and the export has improved significantly [23][24] - The national soda ash capacity is currently about 44 million tons. The Alashan Phase II project of Yuanxing Energy has been put into production, and the annual output is expected to increase by more than 10% year-on-year in 2026. In Q2, the new production capacity is limited. The anti-involution policy has a limited impact on the supply, mainly affecting the coal price [24] - In Q2, the soda ash supply will still remain high, but the influence of maintenance may disrupt the market. Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical conflict, which will affect the domestic soda ash price in terms of supply, cost, and demand [25] 3.2 Direct Demand Fluctuated, and Terminal Demand was Poor - In Q1, the direct demand for soda ash remained resilient. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased steadily, but the photovoltaic glass capacity increased. Due to the upcoming cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products in April, the demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass was supported. However, the terminal demand was poor, and the soda ash demand was under prominent negative feedback pressure [28][29] - In Q2, the poor terminal demand for float glass and photovoltaic glass will continue. The direct demand will be moderately weak, and the soda ash manufacturer inventory may still accumulate. The direct demand may weaken, and the alkali price may be significantly suppressed [29] 4. Summary - In Q1, the prices of glass and soda ash strengthened due to production cuts and geopolitical conflicts but were pressured to fall back by the fundamentals. In Q2, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash will continue to be pressured, and the prices are likely to rebound due to geopolitical conflicts and other factors. The solution to the loose supply-demand lies in supply reduction. Industry customers should focus on supply changes, selling hedging, and cash-and-carry arbitrage [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector experienced a 5.04% increase from March 23 to March 27, 2026, with notable gains in various sub-sectors such as cement (2.87%), glass manufacturing (1.78%), and fiberglass manufacturing (6.78%) [13]. - Government debt issuance increased by 34.2% month-on-month in February 2026, which is expected to alleviate fiscal pressure and accelerate municipal engineering projects [13]. - The report highlights a structural recovery in demand for construction materials, particularly in municipal projects and consumer building materials, driven by policies stimulating consumption and renovation of existing properties [13]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of March 27, 2026, the national cement price index was 337.5 CNY/ton, up 0.76% week-on-week, with a significant increase in cement dispatch volume by 30.33% [18]. - The cement market is in a seasonal recovery phase, but demand recovery remains weak, particularly in the housing sector, which is constrained by funding issues and insufficient new projects [18]. - The report notes a strong willingness among cement companies to raise prices due to rising costs, although actual price increases depend on demand improvements [18]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of March 26, 2026, was 1196.28 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.21% increase week-on-week, with inventory levels showing a slight decrease [32]. - The glass market is experiencing mixed trends, with some price increases not fully realized due to insufficient new orders from downstream processing plants [32]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor order volumes and production line changes in the glass sector [32]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The market for fiberglass remains stable, with no significant changes in pricing for non-alkali roving, while demand for certain high-end products is showing improvement [43]. - The report indicates that the overall inventory levels are low, and there is potential for price increases in high-end products due to rising costs [43]. - As of March 26, 2026, the average price for 2400tex non-alkali winding yarn was 3716 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week but down 3.05% year-on-year [43]. Consumer Building Materials - The demand for consumer building materials continues to show signs of weak recovery, with upstream raw material prices experiencing fluctuations [7]. - The report highlights the potential for long-term market share growth in consumer building materials, supported by renovation trends in the second-hand housing market [13]. - Key companies recommended for investment in this sector include SanKeTree, Beixin Building Materials, and Weixing New Materials [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include short - term and long - term expectations for glass, and the limited valuation elasticity of soda ash due to the excess expectation. The high inventory of glass in the middle stream needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended. The cost - raising logic may boost the overall valuation [1][2]. - The trading logic for the near - term is to focus on the changes in cold - repair and ignition expectations for glass and the cost - based price fluctuations for soda ash. For the long - term, attention should be paid to supply expectations, demand verification, and cost factors [3][7]. - The trend of glass and soda ash has a cost - raising expectation in the short - term, but the upside space is limited. The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before delivery, lacking clear fundamental drivers [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Glass**: In the short - term, there are expectations of seasonal demand return and accelerated cold - repair of supply. In the long - term, it is about macro - policy expectations. The daily melting of float glass has dropped to around 145,000 tons, but supply decline alone cannot drive prices independently. Middle - stream high inventory is a risk, and there are ignition expectations despite accelerated cold - repair [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation elasticity is limited due to the unchanged excess expectation. It can only follow the cost. Price movements depend on upstream inventory changes and supply or cost "stories" [2]. - **Reality**: The high inventory of glass in the middle stream needs to be digested, and the capacity expansion cycle of soda ash has not ended. The cost - raising logic due to overseas geopolitical issues may boost the overall valuation [2]. - **Trading Logic**: For the near - term, focus on cold - repair and ignition expectations for glass and cost - based price fluctuations for soda ash. For the long - term, pay attention to supply expectations, demand verification, and cost factors [3][7]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: There is a short - term cost - raising expectation, but the upside space is limited. Glass has weak demand, cold - repair and ignition expectations, and high middle - stream inventory. Soda ash is suppressed by high production, with limited price elasticity [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The 05 - contract of glass and soda ash is more about expectations before delivery, lacking clear fundamental drivers [10]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: The spot prices of various glass products remained unchanged on March 29, 2026. The 05 - contract of glass increased by 0.48% to 1041 yuan/ton on March 27, 2026, while the 09 - contract decreased by 0.42% to 1179 yuan/ton. The daily production and sales in different regions showed fluctuations [13][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained mostly unchanged on March 27, 2026. The 05 - contract of soda ash increased by 0.33% to 1229 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract increased by 0.15% to 1310 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: There is still room for positive feedback in the spot - futures market for both glass and soda ash when the market rises. The overall valuation of glass and soda ash is not high and may be driven by other sectors. There is an expectation of cost increase [16]. - **Negative Information**: No negative information is clearly stated in the report. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. Keep an eye on the cold - repair and ignition expectations of glass production lines, glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transactions [18][19][21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: The expectation of the 05 - contract of glass is unclear, with weak supply and demand. The near - term spot pressure is large, and the middle - stream inventory is high. There may be a cost - raising expectation in the long - term, but the demand is unclear [22]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: For glass, the 5 - 9 spread has narrowed due to accelerated cold - repair, and the 05 - contract is facing delivery pressure. For soda ash, it maintains a C - structure, and the long - term excess pattern remains unchanged [31]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - **Glass**: Natural - gas production lines are in loss, the cost of petroleum - coke has increased significantly, and coal - gas production lines have a small profit [46]. - **Soda Ash**: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1200 - 1220 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 950 - 1000 yuan/ton [46]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - **Glass**: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 80,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand. Some glass products have good export performance [53]. - **Soda Ash**: The monthly average net export of soda ash remains high, accounting for about 6% of the apparent demand. The cumulative export from January to February 2026 was 401,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 112,800 tons, or 39.03% [53]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Glass**: In March, the cold - repair of float glass accelerated, and the daily melting dropped below 145,000 tons. There are still some cold - repair and ignition production lines to be realized, and the cold - repair rhythm is expected to be faster [57]. - **Soda Ash**: The current daily production of soda ash is at a high level, with a weekly production of over 750,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance and capacity of some soda - ash manufacturers [60]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Glass**: The middle - stream inventory of glass remains high, and the spot pressure persists. The downstream raw - sheet inventory has increased, and the procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The demand is weak in reality [64]. - **Soda Ash**: The rigid demand for soda ash is moderately weak, and the middle and lower reaches mainly replenish inventory at low prices [76]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises is 73.622 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 814,000 heavy boxes, or 1.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The inventory days are 33.6 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period. The middle - stream inventory remains high [89]. - **Soda Ash**: The total inventory of soda - ash manufacturers is 1.8519 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1900 tons. Among them, the light - soda inventory is 946,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,500 tons, and the heavy - soda inventory is 905,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views Glass - Middle East conflict may lead to rising energy prices, affecting glass futures sentiment [5] - Last week, two glass production lines underwent cold repair, reducing output. Current ignition and cold - repair expectations coexist, with spot prices having a significant impact. Glass futures and spot prices declined last week, speculative demand cooled, and apparent demand weakened. High mid - upstream inventory and approaching delivery create negative feedback pressure on the futures - spot market, which is bearish for the market. Attention should be paid to whether demand recovery can drive mid - upstream inventory reduction [5] - Energy price changes have less impact on the glass futures market, and fundamental factors play a more important role. Given the high mid - upstream inventory and approaching delivery, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The glass index is expected to range between 1080 - 1180. Key events to watch include downstream demand, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [5] Soda Ash - Middle East conflict may lead to rising energy prices, affecting soda ash futures sentiment [6] - The price of ammonium chloride, a by - product of the union - alkali process, has risen, improving the profits of some alkali plants. Soda ash weekly output reached a new high. The output of float and photovoltaic glass declined, putting pressure on the demand side. In the long run, high supply and weak demand mean the inventory build - up trend of soda ash is hard to reverse, which is bearish for the market. High alkali plant inventory is expected to create negative feedback pressure on the futures - spot market near delivery [6] - Energy price changes still affect the soda ash futures market. In a situation of loose supply and demand, the soda ash fundamentals are bearish, and the market risk is high. It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The soda ash index is expected to range between 1220 - 1350. Key events to watch include alkali plant maintenance, alkali plant inventory build - up, and glass output [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - As of March 20, the market price of 5mm float glass in Central China was 1060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. In North China, it was 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The mainstream glass market prices were stable with a slight decline [11] Supply - Last week, two production lines underwent cold repair, and the output continued to decline. Ignition and cold - repair expectations coexist, with spot prices having a significant impact. Last week, the float glass output was 1.0223 million tons (- 11,000 tons), and the national float glass operating rate was 70.56% (- 0.49%) [15] Demand - Downstream production resumed, and the operating rate of Low - e glass was higher than the same period last year. Last week, both the futures and spot prices declined, speculative demand cooled, and traders' inventory was reduced. Glass apparent demand decreased. Last week, the operating rate of Low - e glass was 43.8% (+ 2.2%), and the weekly apparent demand for float glass was 21.8595 million weight boxes (- 2.594 million weight boxes) [19] Inventory - Glass futures and spot prices declined, speculative demand cooled, traders' inventory was reduced, and the reduction rate of glass factory inventory slowed down. Current mid - upstream inventory is at a high level. Near the delivery month, the negative feedback pressure on the futures - spot market is large, which is bearish for the market. Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 74.436 million weight boxes (- 1.413 million weight boxes); Hubei factory inventory was 7.81 million weight boxes (- 70,000 weight boxes); Shahe factory inventory was 3.8896 million weight boxes (- 450,400 weight boxes); Shahe traders' inventory was 8.16 million weight boxes (- 560,000 weight boxes) [23] - In East China, the overall inventory decreased slightly, but the negotiation atmosphere weakened. Some original sheet enterprises were active in raising prices, and a small number of downstream enterprises stocked up before the price increase, while most took goods based on rigid demand. In Central China, the shipment situation varied, with the overall production - sales ratio exceeding 100% on some days, but being relatively weak on some periods due to weather and market sentiment. Last week, the ending inventory of glass factories in East China was 13.8042 million weight boxes (- 276,800 weight boxes); in North China, it was 11.9596 million weight boxes (- 720,400 weight boxes); in Southwest China, it was 13.646 million weight boxes (- 114,000 weight boxes); in Central China, it was 9.35 million weight boxes (- 120,000 weight boxes) [27] Cost - Last week, glass costs showed mixed trends. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1339 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan/ton); using coal - made gas was 1017 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan/ton); using petroleum coke was 1116 yuan/ton (+ 17 yuan/ton) [31] Profit - Last week, glass profits showed mixed trends. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 87.12 yuan/ton (+ 19.57 yuan/ton); using coal - made gas was - 22.24 yuan/ton (+ 17.14 yuan/ton); using petroleum coke was - 21.78 yuan/ton (- 14.28 yuan/ton) [36] Basis and Spread - As of March 20, the glass 05 basis was 16, a week - on - week increase of 81; the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts was - 127, a week - on - week decrease of 14. The glass spot price was stable with a slight decline. Last week, the futures market sentiment declined significantly, and the decline of near - month contracts was greater than that of far - month contracts. Therefore, the basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The current basis is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly due to the deterioration of the spot supply - demand pattern [40] Soda Ash Price - As of March 20, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 970 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the market price of heavy soda ash in Qinghai was 1192 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The mainstream light soda ash prices were stable, while heavy soda ash prices were weak [45] Supply - The price of ammonium chloride, a by - product of the union - alkali process, has risen, improving the profits of some alkali plants. Soda ash weekly output reached a new high. The current weekly output is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. With the continued commissioning of new production capacity, soda ash output may further increase. Last week, soda ash output was 818,100 tons (+ 8900 tons), including 384,100 tons of light soda ash (+ 3200 tons) and 434,000 tons of heavy soda ash (+ 5700 tons) [49] Demand - Float glass production lines underwent cold repair, and output declined. Photovoltaic glass output also decreased month - on - month. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is under pressure, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. On March 20, the daily output of float glass was 144,925 tons (- 2000 tons), and the daily output of photovoltaic glass was 89,200 tons (- 160 tons), with a total daily output of 234,125 tons (- 2160 tons) [54] Inventory - Affected by the purchasing and提货 of the middle - stream, alkali plant inventory decreased. Current alkali plant inventory is at a high level. Near delivery, the negative feedback pressure on the futures - spot market is large, which is bearish for the market. The current weekly supply of soda ash is at a historical high level, glass output is continuously declining, demand is weak, and the inventory build - up trend of alkali plants is hard to reverse. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.8538 million tons (- 77,900 tons), including 963,100 tons of light soda ash (- 50,500 tons) and 890,700 tons of heavy soda ash (- 27,400 tons) [59] Cost - According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash costs declined. In North China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was 1373.3 yuan/ton (- 0.9 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was 1293.3 yuan/ton (- 0.9 yuan/ton); in East China, the cost of heavy soda ash using the union - alkali process was 1052.5 yuan/ton (- 61.5 yuan/ton), and the cost of light soda ash using the union - alkali process was 972.5 yuan/ton (- 61.5 yuan/ton) [63] Profit - According to Steel Union data, last week, soda ash profits increased. In North China, the gross profit of heavy soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was - 93.3 yuan/ton (+ 0.9 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of light soda ash using the ammonia - alkali process was - 43.3 yuan/ton (+ 0.9 yuan/ton); in East China, the gross profit of heavy soda ash using the union - alkali process was 147.5 yuan/ton (+ 61.5 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of light soda ash using the union - alkali process was 277.5 yuan/ton (+ 61.5 yuan/ton) [67] Basis and Spread - As of March 20, the basis of the soda ash 05 contract was - 10, a week - on - week increase of 10; the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts was - 72, a week - on - week decrease of 14. The soda ash spot price was weak. Last week, the futures market sentiment declined significantly, and the decline of near - month contracts was greater than that of far - month contracts. Therefore, the basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The current basis is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, mainly due to the deterioration of the spot supply - demand pattern [71]