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机构行为观察之六:2022-2025,理财产品收益回撤变迁
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-09 13:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The period from 2022 - 2024 was a significant turning point for the wealth management industry, with notable changes in the asset - liability structure, risk, and return of wealth management products. In 2025, the industry is entering a new stage of net - value transformation. Short - term low - volatility remains the core goal of bank wealth management, and in the long run, there are two potential breakthroughs: continuing to create deposit - alternative products and adopting the "fixed income + multi - asset" strategy [13][70]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2022 - 2025, Changes in the Yield and Drawdown of Wealth Management Products - **2022: Representative shock after the full net - value transformation of the wealth management market** - In Q4 2022, after the extreme compression of credit spreads, the bond market reversed, leading to a redemption negative feedback shock in the wealth management market. The industry scale dropped from 31.4 trillion yuan in Oct 2022 to 25.0 trillion yuan in Mar 2023. About 76% of products had a maximum drawdown exceeding 50bp, and nearly half of the products had an annualized yield falling below 2% [2][12][14]. - **2023: The "repair year" after negative feedback** - The wealth management industry shifted its focus to stabilizing yields, introduced net - value smoothing operations, and reshaped the product layout and asset allocation. The weighted annualized return rose to 3.30% from 1.47% in 2022. Over 70% of products had an annual maximum drawdown below 20bp [20][21][24]. - **2024: The "final year" of the low - volatility era of wealth management** - Regulatory tightening ended the low - volatility era. The product structure concentrated more on short - duration products. The proportion of products with an annualized yield between 2.5% and 3.5% increased to 49%, and about 60% of products had a drawdown within 10bp [28][30]. - **2025: Valuation rectification may be carried out in an orderly manner** - Regulatory focus is on the "closing price valuation". As of May 31, 2025, the scale of Shanghai Stock Exchange private bonds held through trust was still 2.49 trillion yuan. As of May 31, 19% of products had a drawdown exceeding 20bp, and 6% had a drawdown over 50bp, but 73% of products had a drawdown within 10bp [35][40]. 3.2 Returning to "Net - value", What Changes Have Occurred in Wealth Management? - **Liability side: Expand scale and reduce costs** - In 2025, wealth management institutions aimed to expand scale. By May 31, wealth management had increased by 1.58 trillion yuan compared to the beginning of the year. The liability side shifted from absolute drawdown sensitivity to partial yield sensitivity, and the weighted duration of products started to rise. Wealth management also actively lowered the lower limit of the performance benchmark [44][45][50]. - **Asset allocation: Emphasize liquidity and gradually enter the new stage of "certificates of deposit + short - term bonds"** - In 2025, there were three transformation signals in asset allocation: continued reduction of the deposit position, increased allocation of certificates of deposit, and increased allocation of bond - related assets, especially interest - rate bonds. The proportion of public funds in the first - quarter allocation also increased by 0.1 pct to 3.0% [55][56][63]. 3.3 Looking Ahead, Seeking Opportunities in Changes - In the short term, low - volatility remains the core goal of bank wealth management. In the long run, there are two potential breakthroughs: continuing to create deposit - alternative products and adopting the "fixed income + multi - asset" strategy [70].