生产复工
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宏观高频数据追踪:生产复工节奏较为温和,土拍数据大幅反弹
East Money Securities· 2026-03-10 07:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Production resumption is relatively moderate, with the growth rate of the resumption rate narrowing compared to the same period last lunar year. The resumption of real - estate projects is better than that of non - real - estate projects, showing a "faster in the south, slower in the north" pattern. Industrial production resumption is also mild, and the marginal change in the national production rhythm after the weakening of northern weather disturbances needs further attention [3][9]. - Land transactions have rebounded significantly, but the growth of new and second - hand housing transactions has narrowed. The land premium rate in 100 cities has reached a high level since 2021. New - home sales in first - tier cities remain relatively strong, while those in second - and third - tier cities have declined. Second - hand housing sales in 15 cities first increased and then decreased. The "small spring" of the real estate market in March 2026 and the possibility of incremental real - estate optimization policies in each city need continuous attention [3][10]. - International energy prices such as crude oil and natural gas have risen significantly. As of March 6, the IPE Brent crude oil futures settlement price increased by 27.9% from last Friday, and the UK natural gas price rose by 74.9%. Due to the attack on Iranian oil facilities and the near - blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the development of the Middle East situation and the transmission of rising oil prices to domestic PPI need to be focused on [2][11]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 1.1 Financial Market - Bond indices closed higher, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index rose significantly. Equity indices declined across the board. The gold - copper ratio increased slightly, the gold - silver ratio rebounded, the gold price fluctuated upward, and the silver price declined [12][14][16]. 1.2 Industrial Production 1.2.1 Power Generation - Coal consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces rebounded significantly, and the thermal coal price first increased and then decreased [18][19]. 1.2.2 Coking - The operating rate of coking enterprises declined marginally, while the prices of coking coal and coke futures increased [20]. 1.2.3 Steel - The output of rebar increased, and the futures prices of iron ore and rebar rose. The inventory of major steel products continued to increase, and the arrival volume of iron ore at six northern ports continued to decline [23][25][28]. 1.2.4 Building Materials - The capacity utilization rate of cement clinker increased slightly, and the copper and aluminum inventories increased significantly. The national cement price index declined marginally, and the glass price first decreased and then increased [28][29][31]. 1.2.5 Chemical Industry - The methanol operating rate decreased slightly, while the prices of crude oil and natural gas increased significantly. The operating rate of soda ash fluctuated upward, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Yangtze River Delta region rebounded, and the PTA operating rate increased significantly [40][41][42]. 1.2.6 Automobile - The operating rates of automobile semi - steel tires and all - steel tires increased significantly [45][46]. 1.3 Resumption of Work and Production - The resumption progress of 10,692 construction sites across the country was the same as that of the same period last lunar year. The labor attendance rate of real - estate projects was better than that of non - real - estate projects year - on - year [47][48]. 1.4 Logistics and Transportation 1.4.1 Freight - The road logistics freight rate index increased marginally, and the railway transportation volume and postal parcel collection volume both increased [48][49][51]. 1.4.2 Passenger Transport - The subway passenger volume returned to the pre - holiday level, and the number of domestic flights decreased [52][53]. 1.5 Terminal Demand 1.5.1 Credit - The negative spread between bill rediscount and certificate of deposit first narrowed and then widened, and the rediscount rate of six - month national stock bills declined [54][55][56]. 1.5.2 Real Estate - The land premium rate of 100 - city land transactions increased significantly, and the new - home transaction area first increased and then decreased. The new - home transactions in first - tier cities remained relatively strong, while those in second - and third - tier cities declined. The second - hand housing transaction area of 15 cities first increased and then decreased [57][65][69]. 1.5.3 Building Construction - The apparent demand for rebar rebounded, and the proportion of profitable steel mills declined slightly [69][70]. 1.5.4 Consumption - The total number of movie screenings decreased seasonally, and vegetable prices declined significantly. The average wholesale price of pork continued to decline, and the average wholesale price of fruits increased marginally [70][73][75]. 1.5.5 Export - The SCFI freight rate increased, and the port cargo throughput rebounded. The SCFI index increased significantly, and the CCFI index of most routes turned from decline to increase month - on - month [83].