以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 生产强、需求弱——2025年三季度经济数据点评；报告日期：2025.10.20 报告作者： 李林芷（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040087 梁中华（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040019 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 报告导读： 2025 年三季度中国经济呈现"生产强、需求弱"的分化格局，在增速放缓的背 景下，亟需通过结构性政策加力以应对内外需压力。 前三季度中国经济增速高于全年目标，但整体面临内外需双重压力。 三季度实际 GDP 同比增长 4.8% ，较二季度回落 0.4 个百分点。从单月数据看，政策 接续期叠加假期错位， 9 月经济呈现生产强、需求弱的格局。生产端结构性改善， ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a "strong production, weak demand" pattern in China's economy for Q3 2025, necessitating structural policy adjustments to address internal and external demand pressures [1] Economic Performance - China's GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from Q2 [1] - Monthly data indicates a shift in economic dynamics due to policy transitions and holiday timing, with September showing strong production but weak demand [1] Production Sector - Structural improvements in the production sector were noted, with resilient exports and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival contributing positively [1] - The "anti-involution" policies have lessened their disruptive effects on production, leading to a focus on quality enhancement rather than mere scale expansion [1] Demand Sector - Consumer growth appears sluggish, with holiday timing causing a delay in consumption [1] - The effectiveness of trade-in policies has diminished, and property income has negatively impacted income growth and consumer confidence [1] Investment Trends - Investment continues to face challenges, although new infrastructure initiatives are showing marginal signs of improvement [1] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests employing structural tools for counter-cyclical adjustments, such as expanding equipment renewal subsidies, issuing consumption vouchers, and optimizing export tax rebates to mitigate current economic downturn pressures [1]